AFL 2018 - AFL Grand Final

[mookieb]

#1 is true
#2 is somewhat meaningless - especially considering the eagles thrashed the pies at the G this year
#3 is possible, same goes for Howe and anyone else
#4 is meaningless. Eagles "lead-in" was even softer against the dees, look what happened there.
#5 is true
#6 could be true, but the same was said for the Demons "star" midfield last week, and sure he won some hitouts but ask google how effective Gawn was

other factors:

Eagles grand final experience may be worth something, Buckley's terrible record in big games

#2 Sure the Eagles thrashed Coll at the MCG, but their history at the ground is terrible as is recent history of interstate teams on GF day. Sydney, WC, Freo and Ade all beaten comprehensively. Interstate teams simply don't get many games at the MCG whereas it's Coll's home ground. This might be mitigated somewhat by the fact Optus Stadium is more similar to the MCG. The win vs Coll might be evidence of this. Perhaps.

#3 No doubt Howe is sore, but I rate McGovern over Howe and throw in Shuey as well. For me this is an advantage for Coll.

#4 I think lead ins are important. WC have had one tough game in 5 or 6 weeks. They haven't been tested apart from the Coll which was at home.

#6 I've virtually never seen a team played as bad as Melb did last week in a final. They couldn't even handball. Rich were also pretty poor and not up to the tempo early. I wouldn't be judging the Eagles midfield in that game but rather against Coll the previous week for a better reference.

As I mentioned WC GF experience might prove telling. Most of the recent GF's have been uncompetitive so perhaps the most important factor is who keep their composure under pressure?

 

[_jrtp09_]

If I had a farm I’d put it on the Eagles, I just don’t understand why people can’t see that they are a far better team. At the MCG or anywhere else.

Do the Pies stand a chance of winning? Of course they do, they’ll have 22 players on the field. Will they win? Not bloody likely.

TAB still offering $2.20. Double your money and then some

Gamble responsibly

 

[Sabbathen]

$2.20? Yuck, that’s about the worst price around for the Eagles at the moment

 

[NonPhixion]

If I had a farm I’d put it on the Eagles, I just don’t understand why people can’t see that they are a far better team. At the MCG or anywhere else.

Do the Pies stand a chance of winning? Of course they do, they’ll have 22 players on the field. Will they win? Not bloody likely.

TAB still offering $2.20. Double your money and then some

Gamble responsibly

Far better team? Seriously? They won by 16 points on there home turf in the QF. We could have easily won that game. Yes Kennedy was under done, but we had 3 players underdone. Now we play on our turf. No point raising the 'already beaten pies at the g this year' argument because thats irrelevant. We lost to the tigers twice this year and look what happened last friday. Look im not being biased here. The game is a genuine 50/50 if you ask me. So yes eagles present value. But to say they are a far greater team just smells like someone that is bitter after friday night.

 

[Sabbathen]

So West Coast closing line was -5.5 at home against Pies a few weeks ago which they covered by 10. In r17 at the MCG it was -13.5 which the Eagles smashed. You can argue who was and wasn’t playing but the closing line takes all that into consideration. In r17 Nic Nat went down early in the game which probably makes that win even more comprehensive.

Now taking all that into consideration, if the game tomorrow was played at a completely neutral venue, what does everyone think the line should be?

 

[iluvparis]

So West Coast closing line was -5.5 at home against Pies a few weeks ago which they covered by 10. In r17 at the MCG it was -13.5 which the Eagles smashed. You can argue who was and wasn’t playing but the closing line takes all that into consideration. In r17 Nic Nat went down early in the game which probably makes that win even more comprehensive.

Now taking all that into consideration, if the game tomorrow was played at a completely neutral venue, what does everyone think the line should be?

Zero - cop out line

 

[Sabbathen]

Zero - cop out line

Haha fair enough. In terms of points, what’s home ground advantage worth then? Surely more than a goal?

 

[iluvparis]

Haha fair enough. In terms of points, what’s home ground advantage worth then? Surely more than a goal?

Final Siren/squiggle says its 2 goals so who I am to argue - probably makes the neutral line more like Collingwood -5.5/-6.5 then

 

[Sabbathen]

You mean west coast -5.5 at a neutral ground? But yeah, 2 goal advantage is a general rule. So based on that, either the MCG on grandfinal day is not as much of an advantage to Vic sides v non-Vic sides as many like to make out. Or if it is a significant advantage, then West Coast are by far the better rated team as the line is only -6.5/7.5

I’m not having a bet either way but I think it’s interesting to look at.

 

[iluvparis]

You mean west coast -5.5 at a neutral ground? But yeah, 2 goal advantage is a general rule. So based on that, either the MCG on grandfinal day is not as much of an advantage to Vic sides v non-Vic sides as many like to make out. Or if it is a significant advantage, then West Coast are by far the better rated team as the line is only -6.5/7.5

I’m not having a bet either way but I think it’s interesting to look at.

Nah I just went with the fact Pies had bigger line at home than Eagles did which makes neutral line Collingwood -6.5. Add 12 in Perth (WCE -6.5); add 12 at MCG (Coll -7.5)

 

[Dez!]

Gone with two similar Same Game Multis:

West Coast/Under 161.5/1-39/Adam Treloar Most Disposals/Adam Treloar Over 30 Disposals is paying $27.25
Collingwood/Under 161.5/1-39/Adam Treloar Most Disposals/Adam Treloar Over 30 Disposals is paying $16.75

 

[X_box_X]

Gone with two similar Same Game Multis:

West Coast/Under 161.5/1-39/Adam Treloar Most Disposals/Adam Treloar Over 30 Disposals is paying $27.25
Collingwood/Under 161.5/1-39/Adam Treloar Most Disposals/Adam Treloar Over 30 Disposals is paying $16.75

Ummmm... Why have you gone two separate multis where four of your five legs are exactly the same, and the only leg that is different between your multis is the team to win?

Just eliminate the winning team from your multi and double your stake.

It shits me to tears when people have two different multies, with only one leg being different where there are only two possible outcomes.

OMG boys look.

I have two single bets.

Collingwood at $1.70
West Coast at $2.25

I can't lose!!!!

 

[NonPhixion]

Ummmm... Why have you gone two separate multis where four of your five legs are exactly the same, and the only leg that is different between your multis is the team to win?

Just eliminate the winning team from your multi and double your stake.

It shits me to tears when people have two different multies, with only one leg being different where there are only two possible outcomes.

OMG boys look.

I have two single bets.

Collingwood at $1.70
West Coast at $2.25

I can't lose!!!!

Your wrong. Seeing as he has the margin 1-39. The odds would be 2.20 for coll and 2.80 west coast

 

[Dez!]

Ummmm... Why have you gone two separate multis where four of your five legs are exactly the same, and the only leg that is different between your multis is the team to win?

Just eliminate the winning team from your multi and double your stake.

It shits me to tears when people have two different multies, with only one leg being different where there are only two possible outcomes.

OMG boys look.

I have two single bets.

Collingwood at $1.70
West Coast at $2.25

I can't lose!!!!

Life must be rough then, everything will work out it'll be okay.

 

[jefffff34]

Taylor Adams for Norm Smith multied into Cam Munster for Clive Churchill.

It's paying plenty.

After doing a bit of research of the 22 Pies players (I'm not backing WCE players), he has the best record, and most consistently good record against the Eagles, and is always there and thereabouts in best players on the ground this year.

The only players from Collingwood that I would consider for the Norm Smith are De Goey, Grundy, Treloar, Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, Crisp (there's a handy roughie if ever I've seen one) and Howe.

 

[X_box_X]

Your wrong. Seeing as he has the margin 1-39. The odds would be 2.20 for coll and 2.80 west coast

So the multi is written incorrectly, then? It should be Collingwood 1-39 / under 161.5, not Collingwood / under 161.5 / 1-39.

 

[NonPhixion]

So the multi is written incorrectly, then? It should be Collingwood 1-39 / under 161.5, not Collingwood / under 161.5 / 1-39.

Sorry mate but what else would 1-39 possibly mean

 

[Prochard123]

Its a fair point in the last 3 years hes had 2 or 3 votes in 9 games. I dont think hed capture the umpires eye as much as commentators.

Sometimes norm smiths dont need to have those huge days, they are pretty rare in tight contest. I remember the shaun hart, Byron pickett types and a few more since.

30 disposals and a goal would put him very close.

I just think hes well overs at 18s with his form and role. Sidebottom (Tagged heavy), Pendles (Slowing as ageing), Treloar (Hasnt returned that well since hammies). Taylors the one spending the most time in the engine right now for them.

I tend to agree, although Adams is not the type of player that gets alot of attention. Alot of in and under handballs, which is shown by his lack of polling in brownlow.

I think if De Goey/Cox kicks 3 goals Adams has 32 possessions 8 clearances, Adams won't get the norm smith

 

[balmainforever]

I tend to agree, although Adams is not the type of player that gets alot of attention. Alot of in and under handballs, which is shown by his lack of polling in brownlow.

I think if De Goey/Cox kicks 3 goals Adams has 32 possessions 8 clearances, Adams won't get the norm smith

Remember this isn't an umpires award, but a media award. Remember Daisy???

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Sorry mate but what else would 1-39 possibly mean

Still seems better idea to take teams out though. More profit. Though I wouldn't be suprised if game points went over, and thats a lot of trust in 1 player

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

I'll have my annual punt again for the gf.

Winners(margin 1-39 or 40+)/NSM doubles only.

I got Martin last year (I don't think he deserved it) so only had a $25 win on the day. Over the years I'm up a packet, with the likes of Stevie J, Bartel, Lake, Cyril and JJ. In the early days, you only had to pick the winner of the game and the NSM, now they want the winner and margin along with the medal winner, so it's a bit tougher.

It's a bit of fun and gives me even more interest in the game. I'm not interested in any of the other betting types, the odds in these 2 horse races I generally find s**t.

I start with $200 and put on 12 single bets, 7 for Collingwood and 5 for WCE. The only criteria I have is that if any of them get up, it has to at least cover my initial $200 outlay.

It's actually a pretty hard game to pick, in the end I think the Pies only because of the home ground. As for the blow out of 40+, that's me just being greedy.

I said to my mad Collingwood workmate before the pf that I didn't think that Collingwood could beat Richmond but that if they did and then went into the gf that apart from having a strong team performance, they're going to need an individual or two to have huge games, I nominated Sidebottom, De Goey and Cox.

Collingwood 40+

Varcoe - $20 @ $126 - played with lots of heart and was important in both his Geelong flags. Emotion.
Howe - $20 @ $126 - with WCE's talls, his leap for marking and spoiling will be instrumental in them winning. Emotion.
Cox - $20 @ $96 - the hype, he's got his tail up, could easily repeat last week or just as easily drop everything. So tall. Emotion.
Sidebottom - $20 @ $21 - smooth mover, I like him.
De Goey - $20 @ $34 - explosive with all the ability in the world.
Grundy - $20 @ $41 - huge tank, skilled
Chris Mayne $20 @ $374 - dunno why, I have a bit of a soft spot for him, he has a dip and does a lot of tough work, I think the media knows this so might talk him up if he's having a day.

WCE 1-39

Hurn - $10 @ $36 - career best season, can he overcome any demons from '15
Yeo - $20 @ $12 - another who shite the bed in '15 but has matured nicely since then
Darling - $10 @ $29 - career best season too but another who shite the bed in '15.
Ryan - $10 @ $70 - has the ability, could just as easily disappear.

WCE 40+
Redden - $10 @ $37 - getting plenty of the pill again like he did in Brisbane but having more influence nowadays.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Any reason why we can't multi norm Smith with team win (SB/lb)?

What's the SB/lb?

I do it every year with the TAB, see my post above, unless you're referring to something else.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Straight into the useless stats file. What the Collingwood side of the early 2000s did in GFs has no impact on this years team

I think he's going back a lot further than that, there was a thing called the Colliwobbles, I think they've lost something like 26 grand finals.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Its a fair point in the last 3 years hes had 2 or 3 votes in 9 games. I dont think hed capture the umpires eye as much as commentators.

Sometimes norm smiths dont need to have those huge days, they are pretty rare in tight contest. I remember the shaun hart, Byron pickett types and a few more since.

30 disposals and a goal would put him very close.

I just think hes well overs at 18s with his form and role. Sidebottom (Tagged heavy), Pendles (Slowing as ageing), Treloar (Hasnt returned that well since hammies). Taylors the one spending the most time in the engine right now for them.

Remember Rioli destroyed them in the first half then was barely sighted in the 2nd half and won it (deservedly so too, imo)

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Anyone on the Eagles?

To me they seem to have everything against them:

1. Have lost Nic Nat, Gaff and Shepherd to injury

2. Historically terrible at the MCG - big HGA for Coll

3. McGovern and Shuey likely sore

4. Very soft lead in over the last 4+ weeks with only a tough win against Coll and a cakewalk vs Melb

5. Potential for a bit of rain about which would be a negative for WC

6. Midfield battle - with no Gaff I would tag Yeo and if he's in check can't see the WC midfield getting on top. Grundy will win the ruck - Coll have more depth and better class in the midfield regardless. Hutchings will tag Sidebottom but if he's quiet there is still Adams, Pendles, Treloar, Phillips and co.

Only query for me is whether the GF loss against the Hawks has given them the experience to come out firing Saturday.

I think that overall WCE are a better side with stronger forward and backline but I think Collingwood run deeper on the ball and have the home ground advantage. I really is a toss of the coin for me. Are the Eagles 12 going to have bad memories of their last visit in a gf?