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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 11

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iluvparis said:
Yes traded for all of $5 - I haven't been trying to lay them for anything in the $1.60s since the game and haven't been hit yet - feel free to provide me some liquidity :thumbsu:

Also what price where they when the dogs kicked the first 3 goals ;)
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Considering only $10 has been matched at $1.90, would have that $5 @1.61 was right up your alley.;)
 
Sure, bet Monday lines if you think you have a better edge there/you are always beating the closing line. Don’t see what the big deal is personally.
The problem you will have if you are constantly beating the closing line, is you will find pretty quickly your account gets severely limited. Unless you are also placing a lot of bets that will lose over time too, maybe they will be happy to keep you as a customer. Unfortunately corporate bookmakers are all about risk management and every customer is continually profiled. They limit you if you arb, they limit you if you bet too many promos, they limit you if you are consistently beating closing lines, even if your account is losing overall... They limit you if you show any signs of be profitable over time so if you find a way to do that, exploit the hell out of it while it lasts.

If they keep throwing promos at you and they will accept a decent sized stake from you on Monday line then sorry, you are going to lose over time.
 
Sabbathen said:
Sure, bet Monday lines if you think you have a better edge there/you are always beating the closing line. Don’t see what the big deal is personally.
The problem you will have if you are constantly beating the closing line, is you will find pretty quickly your account gets severely limited. Unless you are also placing a lot of bets that will lose over time too, maybe they will be happy to keep you as a customer. Unfortunately corporate bookmakers are all about risk management and every customer is continually profiled. They limit you if you arb, they limit you if you bet too many promos, they limit you if you are consistently beating closing lines, even if your account is losing overall... They limit you if you show any signs of be profitable over time so if you find a way to do that, exploit the hell out of it while it lasts.

If they keep throwing promos at you and they will accept a decent sized stake from you on Monday line then sorry, you are going to lose over time.
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I think most in here know about limitations. How much are you limited to on the corporates?
 

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chrisdon16 said:
I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts and opinions on limiting punters.
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Corporate bookmakers are trying to run a business and make a profit like anyone else so I don’t begrudge them that. They have decided the most efficient way to do that is to target recreational and problem gamblers and effectively take away the risk of servicing anyone with half a clue. All whilst the government beats its chest and pretends like they are doing something about problem gambling in this country but are more than happy to keep collecting the tax dollars from these companies.
 
Should also add without the mug punters driving promotions and the huge amount of exotics available now, it would be a lot harder to take advantage of risk free opportunities. But on the other hand, we’ve also lost things like in-play betting on sports as a supposed result of them.
 
iluvparis said:
As I said - its close - I have half a game between 4th and 7th - its very close - and I'd rather back Port/Geelong to grab that 4th slot at $2.50/$3.00 than an historically brittle Melbourne at odds on - especially when they have had a relatively easy draw so far
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#wherearetheyat
 
If you go back and actually bothered to read what I said about melbourne, you'd clearly see that I said they have one of the best lists for the future, I.E the next 4-5 years. Not a great list for Round 12-14 in 2018. They also lost Lever since this discussion which has clearly had an impact on their structure.
 
chrisdon16 said:
Yes they need to beat good teams more consistently. But be prepared to finish top 2 for the next 3-5 years at least. Best list in the comp. Only thing they can do wrong at the moment is getting ahead of themselves and taking weaker teams easy. This is the start of Geelong in the mid 2000's you should be getting pretty excited...
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Don't see any time clarification here - have they just got ahead of themselves perhaps?
 

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Well you were talking 5 year juggernauts + best list and Rocky was calling one of the best 22s right now. Both calls surely dampened now they we are outside the peak Demons hype period. Given I got a list a mile long of their "depth" using the loss of one player as an excuse is a bit lolsy

1-5 against teams currently top 9 and 7-0 against teams 11th or lower
 
iluvparis said:
Don't see any time clarification here - have they just got ahead of themselves perhaps?
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Perhaps? It's entirely possible. I like their long term outcome compared to Round 12,13 and 14 in 2018. I can't remember but I said something like this season is irrelevant or something yeah they have a chance this season, it's the next 3 or 4 years where they should blossom into a serious contender.
 
chrisdon16 said:
Perhaps? It's entirely possible. I like their long term outcome compared to Round 12,13 and 14 in 2018. I can't remember but I said something like this season is irrelevant or something yeah they have a chance this season, it's the next 3 or 4 years where they should blossom into a serious contender.
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The context was entirely on the back of me saying they were a good lay for top 4
 
Jugada said:
Well you were talking 5 year juggernauts + best list and Rocky was calling one of the best 22s right now. Both calls surely dampened now they we are outside the peak Demons hype period. Given I got a list a mile long of their "depth" using the loss of one player as an excuse is a bit lolsy

1-5 against teams currently top 9 and 7-0 against teams 11th or lower
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Juggernauts in the future, not this season as I said. Losing Lever has been brushed under the mat by most. He was just finding form and the dees structure seemed to be set. His loss has made a massive impact.
 
chrisdon16 said:
Juggernauts in the future, not this season as I said. Losing Lever has been brushed under the mat by most. He was just finding form and the dees structure seemed to be set. His loss has made a massive impact.
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But in the same posts in this very round you said they had amazing depth and listed all their AFL quality players in the VFL?!?!

No Lever is out and they have a huge impact on the team!?! That is a solid piss take
 
chrisdon16 said:
Juggernauts in the future, not this season as I said. Losing Lever has been brushed under the mat by most. He was just finding form and the dees structure seemed to be set. His loss has made a massive impact.
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Better hope they don’t lose Lever or Hogan or any of these other great players to a long term injury in the next 5 years then.
 

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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 11

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