AFL 2018 - AFL Round 13

[GROTTO]

This forum badly needs a poster who is a meteorologist.

I need to learn more about weather patterns.

 

[NonPhixion]

after a bad low scoring game last night, im not game to go multiples today, but onboard these- I breakeven on these if 1 comes off.
1u Parfitt ATGS @2.00 sb (ave 0.88g /game)
1u Higgins ATGS @2.00 sb (ave 1g /game)
gregson and fogarty are also @2 if thats of interest to ppl.

beat me to it. was just about to post Parfitt ATGS
7 goals from 8 games, starting FP and conditions should favour him.

 

[SM]

Four umpires looking to give frees to forwards like Thursday night, reckon overs might be the go if it's stopped raining?

 

[AFDogs]

$50 on Geelong @ $2.44
$5 on Mitch Duncan most goals @ $101

Let's go!

 

[chrisdon16]

Weather looks clear south of Melbourne so going with the gut.
Richmond -9.5 $1.95 (Topsport, Pointsbet)
Richmond o69.5 (SB)

 

[SM]

Gone overs and cats line.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Weather looks clear south of Melbourne so going with the gut.
Richmond -9.5 $1.95 (Topsport, Pointsbet)
Richmond o69.5 (SB)

Yeh I've gone both teams to score 56, parfitt n mccarthy I found at good prices 1st goal $26.. then just a little on the two smalls castagna n butler

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

According to BOM this is what 100% chance of rain looks like



And this is what 60% chance of showers looks like

 

[NonPhixion]

Ablett O29.5 1.95 SB

 

[demon_fanatic]

Bloody come on Edwards..took him 7.00 for two goals b365 seemed value,n butler fluffs my 1st goalscorer bet

 

[demon_fanatic]

Ablett O29.5 1.95 SB

. Looks solid no one is going with him

 

[mookieb]

Is rain expected during the game? Total is 138.5 which seems a little low given teams look like they're moving the ball well and Rich have missed some easy shots.

 

[chrisdon16]

Richmond +7.5 live

 

[mookieb]

Thanks Tom.

 

[NonPhixion]

Thanks Tom.

made me nervous

 

[chrisdon16]

Thanks Tom.

That would of been absolutely putrid to lose the under

 

[Robo87]

Heads up - On Sportsbet, you can get...

Head to Head/Total Points Double Market

Geelong to win and under 150.5 @ $3.10
Richmond to win and under 150.5 @ $2

Also...

Big Win, Little Win/Total Points Double Market

Geelong 1-39, under 150.5 @ $3.60
Richmond 1-39, under 150.5 @ $2.63

Since I like Richmond to win, I've gone 1u on each one.
Good value, I reckon. Total shouldn't go over 150.5 and the
winner won't be going over 40+ in the wet conditions.

you got home just, had hawkins kicked that last goal it all wouldve been blown

 

[AFLFootyChick]

you got home just, had hawkins kicked that last goal it all wouldve been blown

Last minute, I put 1u on the Richmond 1-39/over 150.5 as a saver. At $8.50, had to, so would have won either way A good afternoon.

 

[chrisdon16]

Seems as though most had a very good day today. Enjoy your beer

 

[mookieb]

This forum badly needs a poster who is a meteorologist.

I need to learn more about weather patterns.

Another poster mocked it but I reckon I have made money from looking at the weather reports and reading here and other places on the impact of weather on the totals. Books seem a bit slow to act so if you get on early you can often get a middle or if you have multiple books and the weather looks like clearing then normally you can find one a bit slow to update and switch to the over.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Another poster mocked it but I reckon I have made money from looking at the weather reports and reading here and other places on the impact of weather on the totals. Books seem a bit slow to act so if you get on early you can often get a middle or if you have multiple books and the weather looks like clearing then normally you can find one a bit slow to update and switch to the over.

Yeah definately.. the surface didn't look at all too bad as to what reports were saying..put me off hitting over In the end just played my 6 pt Middle

 

[SM]

Gone overs and cats line.

So I thought I'd ****ed it.. then checked my account and I'd accidentally hit Tigers line. One of the greatest feelings thinking your bet was dead only to see the cash in the account.

 

[langdon19]

So I thought I'd ****** it.. then checked my account and I'd accidentally hit Tigers line. One of the greatest feelings thinking your bet was dead only to see the cash in the account.

Always the opposite for me
Tab touch platform sucks, it's the only one I've hit the wrong bet, they always get up and I loose my stake.

 

[SM]

Always the opposite for me
Tab touch platform sucks, it's the only one I've hit the wrong bet, they always get up and I loose my stake.

I was in a rush right before bounce then was in an area with shit signal so couldn't even monitor. Saw the full time score and was annoyed then opened B365.

 

[mookieb]

I went all out on the Hawks v crows game before teams came out.

My reasons are:
-crows lost to freo when they had no fyfe or sandi.... the core of their team...
-crows have traveled from perth in the last week
-hawks home game and have just had an extra weeks rest.
-crows have a huge injury list and i believe hawks only have 2 starting 22 players not playing.
-all the internal feud going on in the crows club at the moment causing low moral.

The only reason i think it might not be the 100+ point blow out is the weather. Hopefully it all passes before the game and not during.

For the reasons above i put these bets on the Hawks when they were paying $1.70 on sportsbet earlier in the week

15U for hawks win
10U -10
5U -20
3U -30
3U -40
3U -50
2U -60
2U -70
2U -80
1U -90
1U -100

I am breaking even this year so i dont recommend following my bets and i do a lot riskier bets than what most put on here. Only bit of advice is to only bet what you are willing to lose and still be able to enjoy the game.

Have fun and good luck!

Hope you had a big night!

I've only done this type of betting once (I thought Port vs GC last round 2017 was the bet of the century) and had a few bets on different margins. I suppose Pointsbet spread betting is the easier option. Probably an option for games where there is a high probability that the other team might capitulate or have nothing to play for. The closer to the end of the season and a few teams will be putting the white flag up.