Chism
Franks & Beans
- Sep 7, 2008
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Really it is none of your business what others do and how they do it.
Quit harassing others and worry about your own bets.
AFL 2018 - AFL Round 13
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Quit harassing others and worry about your own bets.
Sabbathen
Club Legend
- Aug 17, 2016
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If I was going to pay someone for tips I’d want to be the only one getting them to be honest... If your tips were worth a pinch of s**t the line and price would move as soon as you posted them. If you are just punting for a bit of fun then good for you. But when you start posting up records, making twitter pages etc. then you are looking for some sort of weird self gratification and pats on the back from internet randoms? You have to also accept when someone smarter than you comes along and shoots holes in your process... Instead of getting the shits, learn from what they are saying. Nothing being said here is new, go and listen to actual professional punters and bookmakers speak and you’ll start to understand why you cannot beat the bookies over time. Trust me, just go and do a bit of research on variance, bookmaker margins and how odds are set. This is the reason we have such a big gambling problem in this country, no one understands how much the odds are stacked against you. I’d rather have intelligent discussions on this sort of stuff than read about your multi or how you think you can beat a total because you googled the weather forecast a week out.
I got Carl +12.5 which i'm relatively confident it.
I try and look at the impact of wins and losses on teams and for weaker teams a great win can mean they either kick on with confidence or some teams (depending on certain factors) will come out the next week with less intensity and get flogged. Alot of younger players for Freo and they get a 6 day break so i'm leaning towards the latter and Carl covering the line or sneaking a win.
It helps that Freo are atrocious on the road and missing some quality, but they have the best team on paper so wouldn't surprise if they win.
Chism
Franks & Beans
- Sep 7, 2008
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Everyone is free to do as they please without ridicule.
It is not up to you to nor your responsibility to criticise others regardless what you think.
He's posting his tips because if no-one posted their tips then what the * use would this forum be for?
Sports betting is beatable like most other gambling which involves a mix of skill and luck.
And who are the smarter people or professional punters here - let me guess there the one's that don't post their tips?
But please continue to give your intelligent discussions on how no-one of us can win because that's exactly what i'm looking for in a sports betting forum.
SM
Bigfooty Legend
Really don't like the games today other than to think they're all going unders. Crows/Hawks only one that might go over. Carlton and Freo just don't have the tools to damage the scoreboard.
Sabbathen
Club Legend
- Aug 17, 2016
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Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Sorry for trying to share some knowledge.
Chism
Franks & Beans
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It is the way you deliver the so called knowledge.
- Apr 6, 2016
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Have I heard of handicapping? Cut the condescending crap!
Why would I have an issue with posting and betting on a Monday when most of my bets are placed Sunday night and Monday? There's a reason why this forum has so many people in-boxing each other privately with bets and shared ideas, and it's because most of the time, the public posting of bets goes the way of a child care centre that has been left unattended!
I have a massive issue when you decide to make a "list" of other people here, simply because you're offended that I, and the others you tagged and named, haven't been attacked, and you have been. Believe me, you've made no friends by doing that, and that's fine too. Bottom line, NO ONE should be attacked for posting a bet, or sharing an idea - any day, any time!
lol it was literally a list of everyone who posted at a certain time, imagine getting offended by that
99% of what I've learned over the years on here has been in criticising bets and thought processes posted, 1% on actual bets placed is probably generous. And probably 90% of that 99% has been condescending, nature of the beast.
Can choose to listen and take out lessons and learn, or can choose to be offended at any criticism and take it personally. Board used to be more of the former but has been moderated toward the latter, for the worse IMO but quantity over quality is the decision made and it is what it is
99% of what I've learned over the years on here has been in criticising bets and thought processes posted, 1% on actual bets placed is probably generous. And probably 90% of that 99% has been condescending, nature of the beast.
Can choose to listen and take out lessons and learn, or can choose to be offended at any criticism and take it personally. Board used to be more of the former but has been moderated toward the latter, for the worse IMO but quantity over quality is the decision made and it is what it is
I like touk Miller over 21.5 he's gone 27 n 28 past two home games vs cats n dees,where Can I find Billings over 25 or 30 disposals?? as I am limited at sportsbet lol
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
So if you know about it, why is there a need to post a reason for my bets? It's not an opinionated bet. What should I say when I post sir?
chrisdon16
@AFLsystembet
You're acting like I made that list to "attack" the people on that list. Couldn't be anymore wrong. I haven't got an issue with you, anyone on that list or anyone on this forum or when you post bets.
So your saying that 90% of the posts used to be condescending or critical and your disappointed that things have changed?
What's the theory behind self-proclaimed winning betters not posting their bets but being far more generous in providing highly condescending responses to bets posted? I'm not talking about picking apart bets or incorrect reasoning just being condescending for the sake of it.
- Jun 16, 2018
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Difficult to know what to make of the s**t Truck Cup at Metricon today.
Both teams have brought in experience and omitted youth. Aren't these clubs supposed to be gearing up for next season? Perhaps the match committees have decided it is worth bolstering their personal chances of remaining employed beyond October of 2018.
Aggregate games played Round 12
Gold Coast: 1507 vs GWS 2061
St Kilda: 1385 vs Syd 2485
Changes for Rd 13
Gold Coast | Out: Heron (3) Brodie (5) Sheer (8) | In: Shoenfeld (4) Lyon (82) Lemmens (69) | Diff: ~140 games
St Kilda | Out: Philips (5) Coffield (8) Lonie (44) Hickey (75) | In: Carlisle (116) Billings (75) Longer (62) Armitage (158) | Diff: ~270
I have never taken the time to run a regression analysis on the correlation between aggregate games played and outcome, but I suspect it would be significant. Both teams ought to have been belted last week. Kids among men. Rookies among seasons campaigners. They will both be at about 1650 total games played this afternoon, very even in this metric.
Lately the Gold Coast have played well for the first quarter and then simply given up. Truly pathetic after quarter time for the past two weeks.
On the other hand, St Kilda have usually been woeful in the first quarter, but then played alright afterward.
There are obviously many other factors to consider but these are the two which stand out to me for this match.
Gold Coast to lead at quarter time and then lose might be worth a nibble. $4.50 at sportsbet.
Alternatively it could pay to wait until quarter time when the game seems close and then load up on the Saints by 40+.
St Kilda 40+ is $4.50 right now but will blow out to ~$10+ if the Gold Coast head to quarter time with a lead.
My prediction: At least one of coaches to be working for a different organisation by this time next year.
Feels like one of those games where I correctly predict that one team will get belted by 10 goals, but put my money on the wrong horse.
Bugger it: 0.5U St Kilda 60+ @ $11
Will go double or nothing if the scores are level at qtr time and the 40+ has blown out beyond $10.
Do not take my musings into your own betting considerations. I am a mug punter.
Both teams have brought in experience and omitted youth. Aren't these clubs supposed to be gearing up for next season? Perhaps the match committees have decided it is worth bolstering their personal chances of remaining employed beyond October of 2018.
Aggregate games played Round 12
Gold Coast: 1507 vs GWS 2061
St Kilda: 1385 vs Syd 2485
Changes for Rd 13
Gold Coast | Out: Heron (3) Brodie (5) Sheer (8) | In: Shoenfeld (4) Lyon (82) Lemmens (69) | Diff: ~140 games
St Kilda | Out: Philips (5) Coffield (8) Lonie (44) Hickey (75) | In: Carlisle (116) Billings (75) Longer (62) Armitage (158) | Diff: ~270
I have never taken the time to run a regression analysis on the correlation between aggregate games played and outcome, but I suspect it would be significant. Both teams ought to have been belted last week. Kids among men. Rookies among seasons campaigners. They will both be at about 1650 total games played this afternoon, very even in this metric.
Lately the Gold Coast have played well for the first quarter and then simply given up. Truly pathetic after quarter time for the past two weeks.
On the other hand, St Kilda have usually been woeful in the first quarter, but then played alright afterward.
There are obviously many other factors to consider but these are the two which stand out to me for this match.
Gold Coast to lead at quarter time and then lose might be worth a nibble. $4.50 at sportsbet.
Alternatively it could pay to wait until quarter time when the game seems close and then load up on the Saints by 40+.
St Kilda 40+ is $4.50 right now but will blow out to ~$10+ if the Gold Coast head to quarter time with a lead.
My prediction: At least one of coaches to be working for a different organisation by this time next year.
Feels like one of those games where I correctly predict that one team will get belted by 10 goals, but put my money on the wrong horse.
Bugger it: 0.5U St Kilda 60+ @ $11
Will go double or nothing if the scores are level at qtr time and the 40+ has blown out beyond $10.
Do not take my musings into your own betting considerations. I am a mug punter.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
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I'm glad Freo are looking for the bye
- Mar 27, 2018
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It’s comical how s**t Carlton are
Yeh I got this wrong that Carlton would be fresh n up and about!! Yukkk
not at all, just that if you said something dumb you'd generally get called on it by someone smarter than you. i took it as an opportunity to learn, and was lots of good knowledge shared. now it's gone elsewhere due to moderating decisions to be more inclusive and "letting people post what they want" - which is fine, just i think it's done harm to people who actually want to get better. but that's the way it's gone, no issue. think it breeds further condescension when any minor criticism tends to be taken some personally but again others think different
the notion of "winning bettors not posting their bets" is - why would you? make public an edge you have - counterproductive, if you actually are a winning bettor. the notion of "us against the bookies" is a wrong one - it's about finding and then protecting your edges for as long as you can. so the discussion around mindset and how to look for these edges (as no one can find every edge, obviously) is more valuable than straight tips, IMO
Can we make a thread titled arguments so don't have to scroll through 90 percent of bitchiness to find tips
For someone promoting the "smarter punters should be able to tell the others how dumb their bets are" you really think that your post is going to move gameday markets? Why not place your bet then post on BigFooty then watch the markets move like crazy? Why don't you post one and i'll monitor the movements?
Are discussions around mindset cleverly hiding amongst the hang s**t on other posters. It's an area i'm very interested in. I can't seem to find them.
I went all out on the Hawks v crows game before teams came out.
My reasons are:
-crows lost to freo when they had no fyfe or sandi.... the core of their team...
-crows have traveled from perth in the last week
-hawks home game and have just had an extra weeks rest.
-crows have a huge injury list and i believe hawks only have 2 starting 22 players not playing.
-all the internal feud going on in the crows club at the moment causing low moral.
The only reason i think it might not be the 100+ point blow out is the weather. Hopefully it all passes before the game and not during.
For the reasons above i put these bets on the Hawks when they were paying $1.70 on sportsbet earlier in the week
15U for hawks win
10U -10
5U -20
3U -30
3U -40
3U -50
2U -60
2U -70
2U -80
1U -90
1U -100
I am breaking even this year so i dont recommend following my bets and i do a lot riskier bets than what most put on here. Only bit of advice is to only bet what you are willing to lose and still be able to enjoy the game.
Have fun and good luck!
My reasons are:
-crows lost to freo when they had no fyfe or sandi.... the core of their team...
-crows have traveled from perth in the last week
-hawks home game and have just had an extra weeks rest.
-crows have a huge injury list and i believe hawks only have 2 starting 22 players not playing.
-all the internal feud going on in the crows club at the moment causing low moral.
The only reason i think it might not be the 100+ point blow out is the weather. Hopefully it all passes before the game and not during.
For the reasons above i put these bets on the Hawks when they were paying $1.70 on sportsbet earlier in the week
15U for hawks win
10U -10
5U -20
3U -30
3U -40
3U -50
2U -60
2U -70
2U -80
1U -90
1U -100
I am breaking even this year so i dont recommend following my bets and i do a lot riskier bets than what most put on here. Only bit of advice is to only bet what you are willing to lose and still be able to enjoy the game.
Have fun and good luck!
I absolutely don't think any bet or post of mine on lines/totals is going to move the market unless it's a rort job - ie weather has come from nowhere or the line is wrong. But in smaller markets that I like to specialise in, absolutely - and not so much about that particular week, but if enough people believe in me over a period of time and so you end up with a dozen bets on that market; it can kill that particular player's value in the future. That'd be why a lot of the guys who 2-3 years ago posted fantasy market bets no longer do - having an edge and having people piling in behind you all the time removes that edge
I'll give you an example. Last year, there was a 4-5 week stretch where every single week Shaun Burgyone went up $2+ to kick a goal. Goal scoring markets are one I've specialised in and are still able to get bets on, so had him as value every time. Now if I have built up a history of posting winning bets, and a dozen people follow me in, he's probably not $2 the next week let alone 3 weeks later. Eradicates my edge.
Now that's one example from me who's at the shallower end of the pool anyway. Rocky Straight and others would have bigger edges on bigger markets which is why people pay them for their opinion. There's no upside them posting picks; there can be upside in listening from them if you can accept the snark which moderators have chosen not to. Their call - that type of chat has just moved elsewhere
that's what I mean, they've been moderated away as they tend to come with a fair bit of snark and mockery and the choice was made to remove them. I'm talking a few years back. ideal world it wouldn't, but just look at literally any other board on this forum
Anyway, will stop shitting this thread up - not gonna change and it is what it is
