AFL 2018 - AFL Round 17

[mookieb]

Anyone use their own player model for betting?

How does it work? Does it spit out a number once the teams for the week are entered? I'm assuming the players are each rated according to some sort of performance model?

I use a model I developed myself but not sure what factors I should be looking at.

 

[capperscap]

Interesting discussion on crows v cats.

I can't trust the cats. Sure they won last week but i don't think they've been playing that well. On the other hand we have the crows who will treat this game like an elimination final.

Not a game i'd bet on imo.

 

[chrisdon16]

Interesting discussion on crows v cats.

I can't trust the cats. Sure they won last week but i don't think they've been playing that well. On the other hand we have the crows who will treat this game like an elimination final.

Not a game i'd bet on imo.

One of those games that's worth an imaginary 5u bet at half time

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Sydney over 81.5 points @ 1.89 (bet365).

 

[Sabbathen]

Kennedy, Darling, Barrass and LeCras all in the mix for selection this week according to Simpson. Good back to lay proposition, they will shorten considerably if any of those players are are named and there's an injury cloud over Hoskin-Elliott. Kennedy and Barras were close last week, get the feeling they will both be named. Not sure how LeCras can be considered when the Eagles themselves said mid last week he would miss a month...

 

[Watts4Dinner]

$1.90 is the best price they can get on a line the day of the game? I love tipsters that supposedly spend hours on their model but can’t take an extra 2 minutes checking dynamic odds to get the best price or a better line...

Or to put it another way. Using the 1.9 as a price guide is generous of the guy doing the model. Try drinking from a half full mug, friend.

 

[chrisdon16]

Melbourne -31.5 (365, SB, Topbetta)

Got the Dees by 52. Should win it convincingly. Bulldogs play ok at Etihad but very poor away, especially at the G. Dees beat up poor teams easily, been a trend all season, think it continues here.

 

[Sabbathen]

Or to put it another way. Using the 1.9 as a price guide is generous of the guy doing the model. Try drinking from a half full mug, friend.

Sure, if said guy didn’t also post a tip at $1.95...

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Well **** that guy.

 

[langdon19]

Melbourne -31.5 (365, SB, Topbetta)

Got the Dees by 52. Should win it convincingly. Bulldogs play ok at Etihad but very poor away, especially at the G. Dees beat up poor teams easily, been a trend all season, think it continues here.

You might want to check their record at the G. (Dogs)
I'm in the boat that they play best at the G.
I'd check Melbourne's record there too.

 

[chrisdon16]

You might want to check their record at the G. (Dogs)
I'm in the boat that they play best at the G.
I'd check Melbourne's record there too.

Not so much directly at the MCG, but away from Etihad they struggle. They played the G well last season but don't forget they were still a pretty good team and the reigning premier. So far in 2018, away from Etihad:
R1: Smashed by GWS
R5: Smashed by Freo at Optus
R7: Just beat Suns at Ballarat
R9: Beat by 6 goals in the wet at AO
R12: Smashed by Port at AO

Compared to playing at Etihad:
Beat Essendon, Geelong
Just lost to Sydney/North

Also comes down to game mentality too, Bulldogs nothing to play for. Dees playing for top 4

 

[Lensen]

what are you basing "very poor away from Etihad especially at the MCG" on then if they haven't played there this year and you can't use 2017 as they were reigning premier (and presumably can't use 2016 as they won the flag that year)

 

[iluvparis]

Also comes down to game mentality too, Bulldogs nothing to play for. Dees playing for top 8

EFA

 

[chrisdon16]

what are you basing "very poor away from Etihad especially at the MCG" on then if they haven't played there this year and you can't use 2017 as they were reigning premier (and presumably can't use 2016 as they won the flag that year)

Should have said "away from Etihad"...

 

[chrisdon16]

EFA

Considering they're 2 games outside the top 4 and they play Bulldogs this week I'd say they still have top 4 aspirations

 

[Sausage Legs]

Melbourne -31.5 (365, SB, Topbetta)

Got the Dees by 52. Should win it convincingly. Bulldogs play ok at Etihad but very poor away, especially at the G. Dees beat up poor teams easily, been a trend all season, think it continues here.

Does the very hot humid slog up north come into play at all? They all looked toast last week. Maybe not, just thinking.

 

[iluvparis]

Considering they're 2 games outside the top 4 and they play Bulldogs this week I'd say they still have top 4 aspirations

They'd be wrong. Lose this week and they will be doing their best to scrape into 8th

 

[mookieb]

Considering they're 2 games outside the top 4 and they play Bulldogs this week I'd say they still have top 4 aspirations

They're running out of time to prove they aren't this seasons version of Port Adelaide from years past where they beat up on weak teams and can't win against top 8 teams.

Only beaten a flat NM and lost to Geel, Hawks, Rich, Coll and Port (away). On the flipside they're outstanding against the weaker teams.

They have a tough run home so personally think they are no chance for top 4.

 

[balmainforever]

They're running out of time to prove they aren't this seasons version of Port Adelaide from years past where they beat up on weak teams and can't win against top 8 teams.

Only beaten a flat NM and lost to Geel, Hawks, Rich, Coll and Port (away). On the flipside they're outstanding against the weaker teams.

They have a tough run home so personally think they are no chance for top 4.

Melbourne atm are the ultimate flat track bullies

 

[chrisdon16]

Lose this week and they will be doing their best to scrape into 8th

Agree. So that's more incentive to try and crush the dogs this week.

 

[iluvparis]

Agree. So that's more incentive to try and crush the dogs this week.

So you agree with my edit - thanks

 

[chrisdon16]

So you agree with my edit - thanks

I agree if they lose this week they'll fight for a spot in the 8. If they win then they still have a chance to make top 4 which was my original point.

 

[RooTed]

They're running out of time to prove they aren't this seasons version of Port Adelaide from years past where they beat up on weak teams and can't win against top 8 teams.

Only beaten a flat NM and lost to Geel, Hawks, Rich, Coll and Port (away). On the flipside they're outstanding against the weaker teams.

They have a tough run home so personally think they are no chance for top 4.

Weaker teams like the sainners? Dogs could do same I’d think. Like ski season Dees love to melt away from finals time.

 

[capperscap]

Melbourne could still win the premiership this year. Honestly, who knows.
This time last year tigers lost by 10 goals to st kilda at etihad.
No one would of predicted them to win the flag. Anyone in the top 8 has a chance. imo

 

[Hellboy101]

Tigers & Port multi looks good. $1.88. Can anyone see Freo or the giants getting up?