AFL 2018 - AFL Round 17

[Jugada]

Tigers & Port multi looks good. $1.88. Can anyone see Freo or the giants getting up?

Giants, yes.

Wouldn't be banking on the Tigers getting it done. 0-3 outside of Melbourne

 

[capperscap]

Giants, yes.

Wouldn't be banking on the Tigers getting it done. 0-3 outside of Melbourne

Lol
All those loses were against sides who were in form at the time

Richmond won't lose on saturday, giants have no forward line

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Reckon Suns worth a nibble at both line and head to head. One poor quarter most weeks lately in otherwise reasonable efforts and Essendon look too short overall.

 

[mookieb]

Weaker teams like the sainners? Dogs could do same I’d think. Like ski season Dees love to melt away from finals time.

Melb have won by over 25 points in 9 of 10 wins. WB on the other hand have lost by over 27 points in 8 out of 10 games where they have been defeated.

So if Melb win I expect that the margin will not be close.

Additionally I expect Melb to kick on having snapped out of a poor streak of games whereas WB had a shocker and I think it's more likely than not that they might be a bit down on confidence.

For a bit of extra insurance (in case WB start strong) I have taken Melb -15.5 2nd half. Melb is ranked 3rd and 2nd in 3rd and 4th quarters whereas WB are ranked 17th for both 3rd and 4th quarters.

Hopefully Melb have learnt from the Saints loss which is their 1st in 7 games vs teams outside the 8.

 

[mookieb]

Giants, yes.

Wouldn't be banking on the Tigers getting it done. 0-3 outside of Melbourne

Green and Delidio being considered for inclusion might make it interesting...

 

[iluvparis]

I agree if they lose this week they'll fight for a spot in the 8. If they win then they still have a chance to make top 4 which was my original point.

Even with a win they are more likely to be battling for 8th than 4th - a win this week is already priced in

 

[chrisdon16]

Even with a win they are more likely to be battling for 8th than 4th - a win this week is already priced in

Yes, It's likely they'll finish 5-8. I still think they're a chance at top 4 if they win a few upsets on the way home. Who knows? Anything can happen. My point was, Melbourne will still have a mindset to try and make top 4 (obviously).

 

[Sabbathen]

a win this week is already priced in

So we can get the same odds next week after they beat the Bulldogs?

 

[iluvparis]

So we can get the same odds next week after they beat the Bulldogs?

Not if you deal in binary world

 

[Sabbathen]

Mmmm, and I guess North Melbourne’s current price has already factored in their upcoming wins against Brisbane, Carlton, Bulldogs and St Kilda.

 

[capperscap]

How can people trust geelong to win? didn't they lose to the bulldogs two weeks ago?

 

[chrisdon16]

How can people trust geelong to win? didn't they lose to the bulldogs two weeks ago?

Don't stress, always half time time betting mate all over it

 

[langdon19]

GWS Richmond U158.5

 

[Sausage Legs]

kick off the week with laird over 29.5 on betstar. has hit 11/13.

 

[capperscap]

Don't stress, always half time time betting mate all over it

Disappointing response, was being serious.

 

[chrisdon16]

GWS Richmond U158.5

159.5 @ Topsport

 

[RooTed]

A quick spread I've put together of each teams average score this year (minus their one each game of lowest and highest score).

 

[chrisdon16]

HAW/BL - u180.5

 

[chrisdon16]

View attachment 526204
A quick spread I've put together of each teams average score this year (minus their one each game of lowest and highest score).

Nice spread. Don't forget defence...

 

[mookieb]

Yes my pseudoscience enigma machine has popped out Geel as the likely winner.

I think Ade are cooked and deep down a finals appearance and early exit would mean nothing given the dramas unfolding at the club. Last 6 games they have shown little to nothing and it was only 1 massive quarter against WC (with no forward line) that has been impressive.

Geel on the other hand have been good on the road and when they have the inclination are very hard to beat in big games.

Bit worried that this will be a big game for Ade but regardless I don't think they have the forward power to compete against Geelong's backline.

In a season of near entirely bad news Ade signing Sloane should be a bit of a temporary fillip for the team.

They also get in Betts, Knight and Atkins so a bit more speed and the forward line suddenly looks alot more balanced. All of a sudden they are getting much closer to the team the was favourite for the flag playing at home.

 

[chrisdon16]

In a season of near entirely bad news Ade signing Sloane should be a bit of a temporary fillip for the team.

They also get in Betts, Knight and Atkins so a bit more speed and the forward line suddenly looks alot more balanced. All of a sudden they are getting much closer to the team the was favourite for the flag playing at home.

Geelong all of a sudden out to $2

 

[Boxhead182]

Geelong all of a sudden out to $2

I sometimes suspect the bookies like to play mind games with mug punters. SB just sent out a notification to take the Crows with the 24 up promo etc
They know what they’re doing. I’ve seen it far to many times. Even when Nathan Brown has his segment for SB some of the info he says has the ability to suck you in and it works obviously.
I like the cats tonight personally. Play the ground well and face the Demons, Tigers & Hawks in 3 out of there next 4 after tonight’s game. Must win. Can’t trust the crows with the football they have been playing.

 

[SM]

Cats beat Port in Adelaide earlier in the year and should be up for this one. Menzel back in too.

 

[come on oliver]

Interesting crows back into $1.85

 

[chrisdon16]

Cats beat Port in Adelaide earlier in the year and should be up for this one. Menzel back in too.

Should be up, hopefully back to back away games won't have too much of an affect.