AFL 2018 - AFL Round 17

[sledbomber]

Who are these done with?

It is William Hill

 

[Keystone agony]

Higgins under 26.5. George Hewett tag?

I have jumped on the under 94.5 for fantasy

Expecting a hard Hewett tag

 

[chrisdon16]

Grundy out. Sydney defence will have a hard time stopping BB now (if they can get it in there enough)

 

[Robo87]

Grundy out. Sydney defence will have a hard time stopping BB now (if they can get it in there enough)

relating to that, B Brown 3 goals+ is @1.80 on B365.

 

[mookieb]

Grundy out. Sydney defence will have a hard time stopping BB now (if they can get it in there enough)

Jacob's out as well. Both teams looking weak. I would love to be backing against both teams. No Jacob's, Higgins to get a hard tag, no Wood or Waite so Brown double teamed and Ziebell to play forward. I think Syd dominates the middle and wins this.

 

[jimboslice]

Same game multi

Cunnington 30+
Ronke 3+
North win
$5 @ 101/1

Bit of fun, hoping for some birthday luck

 

[chrisdon16]

These won't be popular but..
Freo +34.5 (SB, Topbetta)
Freo o58.5 (SB)

 

[HTPunter]

These won't be popular but..
Freo +34.5 (SB, Topbetta)
Freo o58.5 (SB)

34.5 is a much more reasonable line than the 19.5, 21.5 that was offered at the start of the week. Reckon you might get in there. But would be surprised to see it less than 4 goals.

 

[sneak]

5u port vs frem over 153.5 total / port -29.5 @$3.10

 

[chrisdon16]

Brutal caper sometimes

 

[mookieb]

Brutal caper sometimes

19 goals 32 behinds in the GC game. That must have been tough to watch.

 

[chrisdon16]

19 goals 32 behinds in the GC game. That must have been tough to watch.

North up by 7 with 3 mins to go

 

[demon_fanatic]

5u port vs frem over 153.5 total / port -29.5 @$3.10

Lol what the hell the weather isn't that awful and it's 16-15!!

 

[sneak]

Very bad lol

 

[mookieb]

So before the game, how many points did you have Sloane's resigning worth? And with extra information after the game, what correction factor did you use, that is repeatable, to requantify the points impact of Sloane's resigning?

I don't need to analyse afterwards, because i'm not expecting to find too many scenarios where a team has a horror show including multiple injuries, dramas around preseason camps, rumors, poor form (barely look interested in some games) and player unhappiness. Then you have one of the guys who is the "heart and soul" of the club resigning, a few better players back and bingo they look a different team.

Now I can't measure the precise impact, but when a team goes from playing with no intensity to playing with a high intensity, Sloane has a fantastic game, the crowd cheers every time Sloane touches the ball and Sloane gets swamped by nearly all his teammates when he kicks a goal then I consider it's had a positive impact which was foreseeable.

 

[chrisdon16]

Good caper sometimes

 

[Mr Cyril Rioli]

$1.90 is the best price they can get on a line the day of the game? I love tipsters that supposedly spend hours on their model but can’t take an extra 2 minutes checking dynamic odds to get the best price or a better line...

Followed closely this week, the account posts some lines on Monday when they believe the lines for those games are clearly wrong - seem happy to take the $1.90 early. The account looks very sharp. I jumped on board for two of the tips (unfortunately one was the only one it has gotten wrong since the account opened = dogs!). They have tipped 7/8 lines. I'm a convert, which probably means that it'll turn to crap

 

[asanque]

Screw you Port.

That is all.

 

[chrisdon16]

Screw you Port.

That is all.

Bookies would of cleaned up on Freo winning. Not just the line but imagine the amount of multis that had Port to win on the last leg

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Sydney over 81.5 points @ 1.89 (bet365).

Jake Carlisle under 96.5 SC points @ 1.87 (TAB). Tonned up in his last three, but second tall tonight is Sam Gilbert (lol) as opposed to Austin/Brown in his recent games. More defensive responsibility on him.

Max Gawn over 126.5 Supercoach points @ 2.00 (TAB). Cleared in 9/15 games this season including a 139 against Jordan Roughead six weeks ago. Has posted some big games against weaker rucks this season (139 vs. Roughead, 151 vs. Darcy, 145 & 129 vs. Hickey, 139 vs. Smith, 168 vs. Leuenberger).

3/3, happy with that.

 

[GROTTO]

Bookies would of cleaned up on Freo winning. Not just the line but imagine the amount of multis that had Port to win on the last leg

Same with the Lions win too over the Hawks.

 

[chrisdon16]

Same with the Lions win too over the Hawks.

Yep. But that upset would have produced more chasing for the Port win