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AFL 2018 - AFL Round 17

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balmainforever

balmainforever

Dibs
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Sep 4, 2003
26,634
31,779
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Balmain, GreenBay, Edmonton, Celtic
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Adelaide |$2.00|$1.99|$1.95|$2.05|$1.97|$2.00
\Geelong |$1.80|$1.82|$1.87|$1.80|$1.85|$1.83
\|line:2.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:2.5|line:1.5|line:2.5
\total score:|***.5|158.5|158.5|159.5|158.5|158.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$1.35|$1.32|$1.33|$1.33|$1.33|$1.33
\Carlton |$3.25|$3.40|$3.40|$3.45|$3.35|$3.40
\|line:20.5|line:21.5|line:21.5|line:21.5|line:21.5|line:21.5
\total score:|***.5|163.5|164.5|166.5|163.5|164.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Hawthorn |$1.20|$1.25|$1.24|$1.25|$1.25|$1.23
\Brisbane |$4.60|$4.00|$4.10|$4.10|$4.00|$4.25
\|line:28.5|line:28.5|line:29.5|line:27.5|line:28.5|line:28.5
\total score:|***.5|180.5|180.5|180.5|180.5|180.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.18|$1.20|$1.20|$1.19|$1.20|$1.19
\West.Bulldogs |$5.00|$4.60|$4.60|$5.00|$4.60|$4.80
\|line:32.5|line:33.5|line:32.5|line:33.5|line:33.5|line:32.5
\total score:|***.5|174.5|177.5|177.5|174.5|160.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$4.60|$4.60|$4.45|$4.60|$4.35|$4.40
\Essendon |$1.20|$1.20|$1.21|$1.21|$1.22|$1.22
\|line:28.5|line:30.5|line:30.5|line:30.5|line:30.5|line:28.5
\total score:|***.5|156.5|157.5|155.5|156.5|157.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$2.75|$2.60|$2.60|$2.75|$2.60|$2.60
\Richmond |$1.45|$1.50|$1.50|$1.46|$1.50|$1.51
\|line:12.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5|line:13.5
\total score:|***.5|157.5|159.5|155.5|157.5|160.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood |$1.45|$1.46|$1.45|$1.47|$1.47|$1.46
\West Coast |$2.75|$2.75|$2.75|$2.75|$2.70|$2.75
\|line:13.5|line:14.5|line:14.5|line:13.5|line:14.5|line:14.5
\total score:|***.5|161.5|164.5|164.5|162.5|164.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb.|$2.10|$2.05|$1.97|$2.00|$2.00|$2.00
\Sydney |$1.75|$1.78|$1.85|$1.85|$1.82|$1.83
\|line:3.5|line:2.5|line:1.5|line:2.5|line:3.5|line:2.5
\total score:|***.5|160.5|160.5|161.5|160.5|160.5
Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$4.25|$3.55|$3.70|$3.75|$3.60|$3.65
\Port Adelaide |$1.23|$1.30|$1.28|$1.29|$1.30|$1.29
\|line:21.5|line:22.5|line:22.5|line:23.5|line:22.5|line:22.5
\total score:|***.5|152.5|154.5|154.5|152.5|154.5

ODDS AT 14.30 ON 10/7/18
 
Last edited:
Even though the odds are short I like the 'value' of Port hovering around the $1.35-1.37 mark?

2018 round 1 Port d Freo by 50
2017 round 2 Port d Freo by 89

Both at Adelaide Oval but convincing wins with reasonably similar sides.

To add - Port have only dropped 1 game to teams outside the current top 8 in 2018 and 1 game last year to a non-top 8 team. I think they will be too clinical for a side minus Fyfe and Sandi coming off 2 50+ losses (1 at home v 16th and 1 where they conceded 78 inside 50s to 28).

Will be also going at the line (21.5 on WH) and anchoring Port in a couple of multis.

edit: 19.5 on Sportsbet.
 
HTPunter said:
Even though the odds are short I like the 'value' of Port hovering around the $1.35-1.37 mark?

2018 round 1 Port d Freo by 50
2017 round 2 Port d Freo by 89

Both at Adelaide Oval but convincing wins with reasonably similar sides.

To add - Port have only dropped 1 game to teams outside the current top 8 in 2018 and 1 game last year to a non-top 8 team. I think they will be too clinical for a side minus Fyfe and Sandi coming off 2 50+ losses (1 at home v 16th and 1 where they conceded 78 inside 50s to 28).

Will be also going at the line (21.5 on WH) and anchoring Port in a couple of multis.
Click to expand...


Agree
25u Port @ 1.37
 

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I'm not one for following supposed "experts" or rubbish betting "models" but there is a new twitter account @AFLmodel that I'm watching pretty closely.
I didn't follow the tips this round but reckon I'll give it a crack next week... seems pretty shrewd imo.

Does anyone have somebody proven that they follow either on here or elsewhere?
 
Think the Hawks / Bris game will be a bit of a revenge matchup for the Hawks. Got flogged by Bris led by Fagan and Hodge earlier in the year.

It's in Tassie so a big plus for the Hawks and they'll be after some payback I expect. Might be a letdown spot for Bris. Played 2 great games in a row so for a young squad I think they'll struggle to maintain the same intensity for 3 games in a row.
 
Mr Cyril Rioli said:
I'm not one for following supposed "experts" or rubbish betting "models" but there is a new twitter account @AFLmodel that I'm watching pretty closely.
I didn't follow the tips this round but reckon I'll give it a crack next week... seems pretty shrewd imo.

Does anyone have somebody proven that they follow either on here or elsewhere?
Click to expand...
$1.90 is the best price they can get on a line the day of the game? I love tipsters that supposedly spend hours on their model but can’t take an extra 2 minutes checking dynamic odds to get the best price or a better line...
 
targett said:
Talia and Douglas in doubt too
Click to expand...

Just watched Chris Scott's press conference. Harry Taylor is "sore" and there's no guarantee Menzel will be back. He played limited minutes in the VFL this past round. At home, this is a MUST win game for Adelaide, or their season is well and truly cooked, if it's not already. Lose and they ARE done. No question. Win, and have other games go their way, and they're still a chance. I am certainly leaning Adelaide.
 

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AFLFootyChick said:
Just watched Chris Scott's press conference. Harry Taylor is "sore" and there's no guarantee Menzel will be back. He played limited minutes in the VFL this past round. At home, this is a MUST win game for Adelaide, or their season is well and truly cooked, if it's not already. Lose and they ARE done. No question. Win, and have other games go their way, and they're still a chance. I am certainly leaning Adelaide.
Click to expand...
Could get $2 about the Cats earlier today ...not much of that left. I guess its much the same for Geelong who would
desperately want to stay in touch with top 4
 
AFLFootyChick said:
Just watched Chris Scott's press conference. Harry Taylor is "sore" and there's no guarantee Menzel will be back. He played limited minutes in the VFL this past round. At home, this is a MUST win game for Adelaide, or their season is well and truly cooked, if it's not already. Lose and they ARE done. No question. Win, and have other games go their way, and they're still a chance. I am certainly leaning Adelaide.
Click to expand...
Agree with targett Geelong also will have the same must win mentality to try and make top 4
 
targett said:
Could get $2 about the Cats earlier today ...not much of that left. I guess its much the same for Geelong who would
desperately want to stay in touch with top 4
Click to expand...

Yep, very true. I just think those Adelaide fans will be angry as all hell, and loud! Could well be the tipping point in their favour.
 

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mookieb said:
Think the Hawks / Bris game will be a bit of a revenge matchup for the Hawks. Got flogged by Bris led by Fagan and Hodge earlier in the year.

It's in Tassie so a big plus for the Hawks and they'll be after some payback I expect. Might be a letdown spot for Bris. Played 2 great games in a row so for a young squad I think they'll struggle to maintain the same intensity for 3 games in a row.
Click to expand...
Line at 28.5 ATM but I can't see Hawks getting over that. TGS should be under 170 (90-80) IMHO.
 
Jugada said:
Adelaide's season is already cooked. Even if you like to follow those pseudoscience reasons for needing to win, its the Cats you should be on.

Geelong have had no problems playing away either. Beat both Sydney and Port away easily and arguably should have beaten West Coast at Optus if not for late injuries
Click to expand...
Yes my pseudoscience enigma machine has popped out Geel as the likely winner.

I think Ade are cooked and deep down a finals appearance and early exit would mean nothing given the dramas unfolding at the club. Last 6 games they have shown little to nothing and it was only 1 massive quarter against WC (with no forward line) that has been impressive.

Geel on the other hand have been good on the road and when they have the inclination are very hard to beat in big games.

Bit worried that this will be a big game for Ade but regardless I don't think they have the forward power to compete against Geelong's backline.
 
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