AFL 2018 - AFL Round 18

[langdon19]

Good luck mate!

Yes they let me put 10c on

 

[demon_fanatic]

Chrisdon/Langdon what do you have wc-wb total at given the horrible forevadr..I'm hueguess dry we'd be looking at 174-182 range given eagles attacking options and dogs leak a lot in 2nd half lately... Do you see the total lowering if the forecast holds

 

[banana_bus]

Yes they let me put 10c on

 

[mookieb]

yeh i am loving the cats too... my boys form has been horrid.. we were lucky freo were so awful 2 weeks ago and also lucky we were playing the dogs in 1st half last week or we would of been 4-5 goals down vs a decent team, can't see the cats losing and sliding out of 8 to be honest.. Hawkins also finding great form and the loss of viney will continue to hurt us. Henderson also coming in i think who is handy

Yeah Geel always very good at Skilled. They also tend to be very good in big games whereas Melb haven't really beaten anyone of note this year to date although they are very good at beating up on weak sides.

Lever, Viney out and I think Hibberd is gone now as well. Against Geel who should get Henderson or Taylor in.

 

[chrisdon16]

GEE/MEL - o160.5

 

[chrisdon16]

STK/RICH - u174.5 (Neds)

 

[demon_fanatic]

GEE/MEL - o160.5

Yeh seems low..dees normally give up plenty when we lose. Thinking a comfortable 100-70 type win fir cats.. hibberd out now too another great intercept marker gone

 

[chrisdon16]

Yeh seems low..dees normally give up plenty when we lose. Thinking a comfortable 100-70 type win fir cats.. hibberd out now too another great intercept marker gone

Yeah. Still think the dees are a sneaky chance to steal it though

 

[chrisdon16]

Hawthorn -36.5 (SB, Neds)

Love the Hawks here. Coming off a bad loss. Surprised the line was this low.

 

[langdon19]

Chrisdon/Langdon what do you have wc-wb total at given the horrible forevadr..I'm hueguess dry we'd be looking at 174-182 range given eagles attacking options and dogs leak a lot in 2nd half lately... Do you see the total lowering if the forecast holds

164 in the dry
Nicnat out will make Wc less attacking to a degree. Dogs were happy to engauge in a shootout with Geelong, doubt they will do this again but who knows.
Weather has improved (next update due now) but if it stays on the 5-10mm track it will fall to 142-143 before the bounce.

 

[langdon19]

Latest update 6-15 and windy
I don't have an accurate correction factor but if it stays on track will be below 140

 

[demon_fanatic]

Latest update 6-15 and windy
I don't have an accurate correction factor but if it stays on track will be below 140

Nice worried dogs could totally collapse as eagles still are capable of a big score in wet with cripps lecras n rioli on ground level,and they could well allow close to 100 even in wet.. danger would be junk time last qtr if rain stops during game..do often see low totals busted by junk goals late, but I'll see what the line is before deciding how to handle my under 150.5 stake..I went $300..b365 have pulled it into 147.5

 

[langdon19]

Nice worried dogs could totally collapse as eagles still are capable of a big score in wet with cripps lecras n rioli on ground level,and they could well allow close to 100 even in wet.. danger would be junk time last qtr if rain stops during game..do often see low totals busted by junk goals late, but I'll see what the line is before deciding how to handle my under 150.5 stake..I went $300..b365 have pulled it into 147.5

Just middle it

 

[demon_fanatic]

Just middle it

Yeh I will if thereesa chance of dry during game. I'll weigh it all up closer to sunday,wow dropped another 3 to 144.5, n Hawkins into 8 from 17 at neds for most goals of round

 

[chrisdon16]

St. Kilda +39.5

 

[free at last]

I'd be careful with the eagles v dogs game total.Rain is forecasted for afternoon & evening,wouldn't surprise me if the rain starts at like 5-6pm WST.

 

[langdon19]

I'd be careful with the eagles v dogs game total.Rain is forecasted for afternoon & evening,wouldn't surprise me if the rain starts at like 5-6pm WST.

It's the weather, can do anything.
I find willyweather good, forcast rain for around 2pm ATM.

 

[free at last]

It's the weather, can do anything.
I find willyweather good, forcast rain for around 2pm ATM.

Have you had a look at the Power v Giants total?
Sunday in Adelaide is looking like it's going to get pretty windy.

 

[langdon19]

Have you had a look at the Power v Giants total?
Sunday in Adelaide is looking like it's going to get pretty windy.

I put a half unit on over 155.5, hope it's not too windy

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Dusty over 26.5 disp @ 1.87. Ladbrokes.
Value?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Keystone agony]

Dusty over 26.5 disp @ 1.87. Ladbrokes.
Value?

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

No

 

[demon_fanatic]

Yeh better off taking dusty 25 disp n a goal..youd think he snags at least one. $2.50 poinstbet

 

[Sausage Legs]

Sportsbet Mitch Wallis any time goal scorer 2.30. Has kicked a goal 10 out of 12 games including 2 bags of 3 in his last 2.
Bris total over 85. Averaging 112 in their last 3 games.
Betstar. Buddy 5 goals and swans win 3.75, reckon could go big here.

 

[Robo87]

is Lance franklin gonna smash the suns this week with 3g+ ?
SB love him at 1.08 where as b365 happy to give punters 1.72..

1u Sydney 40+ & lloyd 30 pos SGM @2.25 SB
1u Sydney over 2.5 goals each quarter @2 WH (build a bet)

 

[Jugada]

is Lance franklin gonna smash the suns this week with 3g+ ?
SB love him at 1.08 where as b365 happy to give punters 1.72..

1u Sydney 40+ & lloyd 30 pos SGM @2.25 SB
1u Sydney over 2.5 goals each quarter @2 WH (build a bet)

Not saying you are doing this but just something ive noticed others doing on here recently is comparing different bookmaker odds to determine if a player is value with this bet type and the number of disposals bets. Just because Sportsbet are offering rancid odds about a player doesnt mean the odds at B365 are value just because they are much higher. Sportsbet in particular set those markets hugely in their favour to the point where there is no value about anything unless you can pick up on some sort if edge with a player changing positions