AFL 2018 - AFL Round 2

[langdon19]

I see bugger All rain ATM
No harm on getting on now though

 

[mookieb]

Yeah its play, these first few round are dangerous to play unders on, I've worked the total to 179 so i really should hit it. Brisbane just don't defend at time, i should hit it but am weary for these reasons.



Dogs score heavily at Etihad, so do WC. Worked this to 190 so not touching.

North Saints is an intersting one, few scores between these 2 of 140-160 recently, ignore the 205 in round 23 last year. Had a nibble at under 170@$5.50 at sb and lowest score at CB@$13
Just gun shy in these opening rounds where the score can go anywhere, overs are the bets to be looking for, the above could be an under play.

One thing to note is that NM get a 6 day break and needed to fly back to Melbourne from Townsville after playing in atrocious conditions. I think with St Kilda playing a fast game at Etihad, NM will tire late and leak goals in the 4th quarter so the total might blow out late.

 

[langdon19]

Any thoughts on Bris vs Melb under 194.5?

Yeah just hit it as the weather is trending that way.
Hoping the total drops, I'll be happy to middle this one.
Last 2 scores between these 2 199, 195.
And it's Bris at the Gabba.

Edit U194.5 2 units

 

[evolutionbaby]

Limiting myself to just the two bets per round this season. GWS looks the standout @1.37 on Bet Fair. Difficult outside of that. Maybe Richmond (+30.5) @1.20 on Sportsbet. Can't see tonight's being a blowout for either team.

 

[Zevon]

Any idea why the Crows have drifted so markedly tonight? They were as little as $1.40 a few days ago and they're now all the way out to $1.75. That is an alarming drift and although things aren't exactly settled in that camp at the moment I'm a little confused as to why they'd be blowing that much in the market?

 

[come on oliver]

Any idea why the Crows have drifted so markedly tonight? They were as little as $1.40 a few days ago and they're now all the way out to $1.75. That is an alarming drift and although things aren't exactly settled in that camp at the moment I'm a little confused as to why they'd be blowing that much in the market?

We were a stupid price when markets opened. As I said earlier Tigs looked a good bet.

 

[langdon19]

Tigers average 65 points at AO
Think crows would have set them selves for this one
I'm loving the h2h and line comming in, pissed I took the -8.5 earlier
Think crows win tonight
Not sure what I'm missing here

 

[Zevon]

We were a stupid price when markets opened. As I said earlier Tigs looked a good bet.

Agree they were too skinny earlier in the week (although only marginally IMO). The $1.75 available now looks well overs to me though.

Tigers average 65 points at AO
Think crows would have set them selves for this one
I'm loving the h2h and line comming in, pissed I took the -8.5 earlier
Think crows win tonight
Not sure what I'm missing here

Couldn't have put it better myself... not sure what I'm missing. One of those situations where we'll just have to back our own judgement and if it turns out the weight of money for Richmond was correct then we'll eat humble pie after the game.

 

[DaicosianMarvels]

One of my best bets of the round was Adelaide -7.5 and now that the line is down to -4.5. I will be adding an extra unit and a half adding up to a total of three units on the Crows

I am most likley going to play GC +13.5 as well. Not one of my picks but late mail that I have received.

 

[come on oliver]

Good luck fellas. Crows $2.20 h2h ladbrokes. Max bet $50

 

[langdon19]

think Richmond are over rated due to the finals series.
Finished equal top of ladder with crows
Richmond had a soft draw finishing outside the 8 the year before.
Played cats at the g instead of kardinia park, they would have been knocked off here and the finals change dramatically.
Played Gws after a week off on Gws bogey ground. Gws play a man down all game.
Play adl on the G, should be at the AO where again they loose.
Only concern with Adl is Personel missing from the gf team.
I still think adl are the better team.
Adding 2 units on Adl h2h

 

[SM]

Anyone know if there's anything stopping us putting $50 on Richmond and $50 on Adelaide at the boosted odds on Ladbrokes for arbitrage?

 

[langdon19]

North vs Saints U199.5 1 unit

 

[langdon19]

Carlt vs GC U190.5 1 unit

 

[Jugada]

Anyone know if there's anything stopping us putting $50 on Richmond and $50 on Adelaide at the boosted odds on Ladbrokes for arbitrage?

Yes a promo ban

 

[SM]

Yes a promo ban

Fair enough. I'll do one on laddy one on b365 then.

 

[Stifler's mom]

I heard that they are expecting 2 days of rain during the test, could be a concern. Also if SA bat first, aus might never get them out within 3 days since they have given up completely.
Also, while I think GWS will smash collingwood by 10 goals, they have a shocking record in melbourne AND against collingwood.

Rain is the only chance SA don't win. Sportsbet have the draw as the outsider at $5.55, so hopefully their info is that the test wont be significantly interrupted.
Pies have zero chance of upsetting GWS.
Past form will count for nothing.

 

[capperscap]

Interesting game tonight.

You just know Adelaide will come out firing tonight. The crows actually played pretty well last week and if it wasn't for a few small things going Essendon's way they could of easily won that game.

In saying that, I think Richmond's style of play will really worry the crows. Richmond are very good at moving the ball quickly and with precision. This style of play won't allow Adelaide to set up defensively. Moreover, i'm not sure what exactly happened in Adelaide's pre season camp but that may have some negative influence on the crows. If richmond can stick with the crows early on i think they win this.

1u Tigers +6.5

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Tonight's game...I was tempted by the lower line of -5.5, but ended up plonking 2u Adelaide H2H @ $1.73 because the Sportsbet promo "24 up, you win" is still going, so hoping Adelaide have a hot start and it's easy money before the final siren. Crows should come out firing tonight! Carlton jumped Richmond last week and got out to a five goal lead early in the first quarter. Adelaide Oval, first home game of the year, and a GF rematch at that, the crowd (and team) will be wanting blood! After hearing about the controversial pre-season camp and the repeated play of the Richmond team song, there's no way the Crows are going to want to let this game slip for fear of hearing THAT song all over again...LOL! Good luck with your bets, everyone, and Happy Easter to all who observe.

 

[Spads]

General question. With pinny now dead, whose odds lead the market?

 

[Vhaluus]

Sportsbet $10 any GWS player over 40 disposals.

They've got some players who can rack it up and Collingwood will never go a negating role, let alone a hard tag.

 

[gillon]

Anybody know what the best Richmond odds are?

 

[puntking]

One thing to note is that NM get a 6 day break and needed to fly back to Melbourne from Townsville after playing in atrocious conditions. I think with St Kilda playing a fast game at Etihad, NM will tire late and leak goals in the 4th quarter so the total might blow out late.

over 170 is a given imo

 

[Trucker Tiger]

Adel-Rich-Adel-Rich - quarter by quarter

.5 unit @ 100 - Ladbrokes

 

[langdon19]

over 170 is a given imo

Why?
Last 4 games 157, 147,161 and 205 in the final round that is always high scoring