AFL 2018 - AFL Round 21

[chrisdon16]

Just watched Goodwin's presser, take it with a grain of salt but he sounded very sure that Gawn is definitely playing this week.

 

[Sketi]

Dees at the minus regardless of Gawn imo. Midfield far too deep and I expect their ball use to open us right up on the bigger ground.

Dees to kick Swans out of the 8 so people can still say they haven't beaten a top 8 side

 

[chrisdon16]

Essendon -27.5 ($1.93-365)

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Gray <86.5 @1.88 (Play more fwd and Sheppard good matchup for him)
2U Witts >96.5 @1.88 (vs Soldo)
0.75U T.Kelly <90.5 @1.88 (Just so high even though his form is great)
1U M.Crouch over Oliver @1.93 (Hewett tag)
1.63U Roughead <84.5 @1.88 (Same as last week hopefully Blic or Henderson d9 a job)
1U Melbourne -20.5 vs Sydney @1.92

All bets with crownbet. Lines have changed

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Polec <92.5 (Seems too high even though form)
1U Hurn <87.5 (Alot of his scores from home)
1U Yeo <105.5 (High away and i think he might be used all over the ground back/fwd a tad more)
1U Wingard <92.5 @1.93 (CB) 1.88 at PB now


Witts <102.5 @2.1 Looking for a middle wont be as easy scoring vs tigers

 

[srobbo]

Essendon -27.5 ($1.93-365)

Yeah I like us too. As much as we don’t pummel s**t sides I think we win this 30+ min. Saints too wounded & demoralised.

 

[FrankGrimes]

Don't mind the over but there is showers forecast at night so maybe the line is weather affected. And also as srobbo said a night game in Canberra, it'll be freezing plus showers....

Yeah checked that.. down to 1 overnight.. can’t be good to play in those conditions

 

[chrisdon16]

HAW/GEE - u151.5 ($1.90 Topsport, NEDS, Madbookie)

 

[iluvparis]

1U Gray <86.5 @1.88 (Play more fwd and Sheppard good matchup for him)
2U Witts >96.5 @1.88 (vs Soldo)
0.75U T.Kelly <90.5 @1.88 (Just so high even though his form is great)
1U M.Crouch over Oliver @1.93 (Hewett tag)
1.63U Roughead <84.5 @1.88 (Same as last week hopefully Blic or Henderson d9 a job)
1U Melbourne -20.5 vs Sydney @1.92

All bets with crownbet. Lines have changed

then maybe post them when they are relevant

 

[banana_bus]

Don’t mind Richmond to win every quarter $1.95 (TAB), $1.90 (UBET).

Prefer this over the line as I think there is a possibility they take the foot off the gas, but at the same time I doubt they’d lose control of the match at any point.

If we're up by 10 goals at HT we wont win the last 2 quarters.

 

[demon_fanatic]

sounds silly but I like Carlton at the odds.. fremantle have lost another 3 from their starting 22 in Hill, Brayshaw, and Tucker and the blues ins are actually ok.. maybe they play good as road underdogs like vs gold coast??? they did have a good win at subiaco vs Freo only 2 seasons ago.. i just wouldn't be anchoring freo at 1.28 in any multis etc with the side theyve named...

 

[iluvparis]

sounds silly but I like Carlton at the odds.. fremantle have lost another 3 from their starting 22 in Hill, Brayshaw, and Tucker and the blues ins are actually ok.. maybe they play good as road underdogs like vs gold coast??? they did have a good win at subiaco vs Freo only 2 seasons ago.. i just wouldn't be anchoring freo at 1.28 in any multis etc with the side theyve named...

People had similar thoughts last week

 

[Neale4brownlow]

sounds silly but I like Carlton at the odds.. fremantle have lost another 3 from their starting 22 in Hill, Brayshaw, and Tucker and the blues ins are actually ok.. maybe they play good as road underdogs like vs gold coast??? they did have a good win at subiaco vs Freo only 2 seasons ago.. i just wouldn't be anchoring freo at 1.28 in any multis etc with the side theyve named...

I like the Blues to win. On paper their side looks better than Freos.

Call me crazy, but I consider GCS good value at $17 to beat the Tiges! Now hear me out:

- Nankervis out is a significant loss for Richmond;
- Richmond are 0-4 this year for interstate games (Crows/Eagles/GWS/Port);
- Sportsbet payout if your side goes up by 4 goals at any point. GCS a chance to catch them napping in the first.
- GCS beat the Swans at the SCG not too long ago with a similar side.

I'd never be so naive as to tip GCS this week, but at $17 I think their odds are significantly inflated.

I'd almost put my house on the line giving GCS a 10 goal head start.

 

[iluvparis]

Interstate stat is irrelevant - would Richmond be 0-4 interstate this year if they had played GC interstate 4 times?

Also unsure on what earth you think Carlton will field a stronger side than Freo on Sunday

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Interstate stat is irrelevant - would Richmond be 0-4 interstate this year if they had played GC interstate 4 times?

Also unsure on what earth you think Carlton will field a stronger side than Freo on Sunday

I can only draw conclusions from the information at hand. Granted those 4 teams strong opponents, but at the time probably only the Eagles were at full strength.

Travel certainly has an impact.

I'm not saying GCS likely to win, I'm just saying $17 is more what I'd expect if they were versing them at the G.

 

[Keystone agony]

then maybe post them when they are relevant

Why waste your energy? Surely it doesnt mean that much to you?

Some lined have moved some havnt

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Jac Steven >95.5 @1.88 Pb

Always kills the dons and at etihad. Only concern is played out of position/trying something new. Helps that Dunstan and Hunter Clark are out

 

[demon_fanatic]

1U Jac Steven >95.5 @1.88 Pb

Always kills the dons and at etihad. Only concern is played out of position/trying something new. Helps that Dunstan and Hunter Clark are out

yeh i like this and also like seb ross 29.5 disposals at topsport $1.88.. he has returned to prolific ball winner past 3 weeks with 33, 30, 40.also the zach merret 30 disp/ess win at pointsbet $3.50 looks good considering essendon are $1.20 favs and his line for disposals is basically 30.

 

[Ohh Ok]

I’ve played Ross to have more disposals than Merrett at $1.98 on crown. Ross is favourite for this market on other bookies I looked at, and I think Merrett may receive a bit of a tag tonight.

 

[iluvparis]

Why waste your energy? Surely it doesnt mean that much to you?

Some lined have moved some havnt

Because its against the board rules - what help is it to anyone stating what bets you placed at lines that are no longer available?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I like the Blues to win. On paper their side looks better than Freos.

Call me crazy, but I consider GCS good value at $17 to beat the Tiges! Now hear me out:

- Nankervis out is a significant loss for Richmond;
- Richmond are 0-4 this year for interstate games (Crows/Eagles/GWS/Port);
- Sportsbet payout if your side goes up by 4 goals at any point. GCS a chance to catch them napping in the first.
- GCS beat the Swans at the SCG not too long ago with a similar side.

I'd never be so naive as to tip GCS this week, but at $17 I think their odds are significantly inflated.

I'd almost put my house on the line giving GCS a 10 goal head start.

Excellent post and I came here to say something similar.

On top of the points you have made, look at the ins for the Suns.

This is arguably the strongest midfield they have put on the park all year.

Last week they started well against Melbourne, then two-meter-peter got injured while taking an inside-50 grab, missed the kick on goal, and within about ten minutes the wheels had fallen off against a team renowned for downhill skiing.

Will the Suns win tomorrow? Probably not. But 17s is overs. As a gambling man, I take the odds when they seem in my favour. And if you play this game 17 times, the Suns fluke at least one of them. Just ask the Swans.

Now let's talk about betting tactics. If the Suns win, it may be by one point. But they may win by a goal or two. You'll get 70-1 that they win by two goals. Really? Play this game 70 times and the Suns win only one of them by two goals? Give me a break.

25-degree heat and a single injury to either team is several goal disadvantage. I'm not hoping for injuries but the stats say that a game-ending injury occurs more than once every 70 games.

I'm loading up on the Suns tomorrow and I advise every body reading this to NOT do so. Why? I'm a mug punter. Down ~50 units for the year. Cheers.

 

[Keystone agony]

Because its against the board rules - what help is it to anyone stating what bets you placed at lines that are no longer available?

Its detailing my bets and as i said most if not 80% of the lines are available

Unfortunatly putting down a unit or 2 moves the line there and then i have posters msg so its easier to post on here and let people chose whether they take the minor difference in line or value.

I dont see that as being unreasonable for the forum

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Jade Gresham to have 22+ disposals @ 1.85 (Madbookie).

Moved into the midfield three weeks ago and has gone 24, 25 and 26.

 

[Bobwarmer]

I have been on a role
so do the opposite
St KildaEssendon vs St Kilda - First To 10 Points 1st Quarter - Straight
@ 2.45
Total Cost$50.00

 

[iluvparis]

Its detailing my bets and as i said most if not 80% of the lines are available

Unfortunatly putting down a unit or 2 moves the line there and then i have posters msg so its easier to post on here and let people chose whether they take the minor difference in line or value.

I dont see that as being unreasonable for the forum

There's a sub forum for detailing stale lines