AFL 2018 - AFL Round 6

[Gavin Excell]

Melb $1.80 v an essendon that cant score?

I have Melb at about $1.40
What am i missing here?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Daniher might be out as well.

 

[capperscap]

Daniher might be out as well.

I actually reckon this will be a good thing for essendon
Just like franklin being out for Sydney yesterday

 

[demon_fanatic]

I actually reckon this will be a good thing for essendon
Just like franklin being out for Sydney yesterday

Who would be value at b365 for multiscorers essendon 2-3 goal's if daniher out?? Is gwelfe playing small forward or mkrm mid? Would laverde Ambrose play deep?

 

[langdon19]

Melb $1.80 v an essendon that cant score?

I have Melb at about $1.40
What am i missing here?

The fact that Melbourne can't score either

 

[Lensen]

essendon have scored 80+ 4 out of 5 games this year but one bad game and suddenly they can't score

 

[royeca]

Anyone think the shortened breaks for Pies, Tiges, Dees and Dons will have a play on the unders?

However, both matches played on the Anzac day weekend were fairly comfortable and bruise free matches so not too sure if there will be many sore bodies going into the game.
Can see it going both ways honestly.

 

[Atavistic]

I actually reckon this will be a good thing for essendon
Just like franklin being out for Sydney yesterday

Fewer OOBFs?

 

[chrisdon16]

essendon have scored 80+ 4 out of 5 games this year but one bad game and suddenly they can't score

Average 96 @ Etihad too...

 

[demon_fanatic]

i cant see any topbetta player disposals or fantasy h2h?? aren't they going up today>> lol dont understand the firm on dees haha into 1.70. given Essendon normally turn up and play well at Ethihad

 

[NonPhixion]

would not be betting on the Melb vs Ess game, can literally see anything happening...

 

[capperscap]

Absolutely pound richmond
Blair and mayne are playing FFS.
I'll eat my words if i'm wrong

 

[mookieb]

I completely disagree. This isn't bs.
Over the past two seasons the competition has grown increasingly even. The evenness of the competition has made it more difficult to assess a teams form.
Whereas in the past, it was much easier to analyse a teams form. This is because there were a group of teams that were distinctly superior or inferior to the rest of the competition.

Personally, I made very good profits punting on AFL from 2014 to 2016. However, in the past 2 years (Including this year) i've struggled. Currently i'm already down 8.6u. I mainly play line markets. I've hardly punted this round and glad i haven't because i would of been burnt again. I'm thinking about taking a break for a while before my losses blow out. The competition has become far too even for me to predict anymore.

Quite a few of the top teams are struggling with their depth. Now most punters will have pegged Geel and Syd as two of the better teams, but the number of list fillers, inexperienced players and just straight average players playing yesterday was very long:

Geel

Horlin-Smith, Guthrie, Bews, Fogarty, Henry, Thurlow, Gregson, Henry, Parsons, Murdoch, Ratugolea, Stanley, Cunico, Kolodjashnij and Blicavs.

Syd

Marsh, Robinson, Fox, Hewett, Florent, Papley, Cunningham, Ronke, Haywood, Jack, Ronke.

I was on Syd -10.5 based on expected teams and then Menzel, Selwood and Parfitt don't play. Replaced by 3 below average players. So realistically I should have tried for a middle. Based on the players above both teams are gettable by "weaker teams".

Everyone's bagging Port but they have Broadbent, Pittard, Hartlett, Rockliff, Powell-Pepper and one of the best ruckmen in Ryder missing.

Given the massive differences in intensity from week to week if you can make an educated guess on which teams will be playing to their capacity and assess the quality of the teams then betting will hopefully be profitable. Might be easier said than done as I have certainly struggled with picking both factors last couple of weeks.

 

[capperscap]

Anyone think West Coast should win today?
Just don't think Freo will kick a winning score with McGovern and Barass in the back half
+ Kennedy, Darling in the forward half

 

[capperscap]

Hawthorn -6.5 against essendon next week

Hammer it

 

[mookieb]

Anyone think West Coast should win today?
Just don't think Freo will kick a winning score with McGovern and Barass in the back half
+ Kennedy, Darling in the forward half

Freo playing 5 rookies and have alot less experience than WC and think they might get found out in the heat of a derby.

WC clearly better back and forward lines. Ideally someone like Yeo does a job on Fyfe who has been outstanding.

Bit worried about Freo being a bit more zipply, but recent history indicates that the better and more experienced team wins.

 

[Robo87]

WC's leading GS 1.5u lecras 2g+ @1.80 Cr
0.3u lecras 3g+ @ 3.50 Cr
1u Darling 2g+ @1.74 Cr
0.1u Petruccelle 3g+ @15 sb

 

[Substance]

Tigers 1-39 multis rip

 

[capperscap]

please cover the 7.5 line eagles

 

[Robo87]

WC's leading GS 1.5u lecras 2g+ @1.80 Cr
0.3u lecras 3g+ @ 3.50 Cr
1u Darling 2g+ @1.74 Cr
0.1u Petruccelle 3g+ @15 sb

Lecras misses a snap in the last 3 mins.. finishes with 1.2

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Under +173.5, thank **** for that!

 

[chrisdon16]

WB/CAR - o167.5
Carlton +17.5
North +15.5
HAW/STK - u176.5
Hawthorn -16.5
Fremantle +8.5

Season: 6/8 -2.6

Like most, pretty rough going at the moment. This is the closest season ever but things should start to change as the season gets older.

 

[Profphat]

WB/CAR - o167.5
Carlton +17.5
North +15.5
HAW/STK - u176.5
Hawthorn -16.5
Fremantle +8.5

Season: 6/8 -2.6

Like most, pretty rough going at the moment. This is the closest season ever but things should start to change as the season gets older.

Is it better to start hitting unders now?

 

[CatFan79]

Is it better to start hitting unders now?

I heard on SEN this morning teams scores are lowest since 1990.