- Nov 23, 2015
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2018 sees the GWS Giants line up for their seventh season in the AFL. I think that original expectations would have been that if the Giants were competitive for a flag in 2018, the western Sydney expansion would be reasonably on track. In fact, GWS has exceeded expectations, playing finals in only season five, and making back-to-back Preliminary Finals losing to the eventual premiers both years. While critics like to cite the PF losses as 'failures', in reality they're nothing of the sort, although hopefully the players can use those losses to fire their own drive towards a premiership.
So 2018 does see GWS competitive for the flag. The recent AFL captain's poll puts GWS, Adelaide and Richmond as the most likely teams to make the Grand Final by their assessment. Which means nothing at all when the season actually fires up. At the end of last season, GWS did lose significant experience with the retirements of Shane Mumford and Steve Johnson, and trading out Devon Smith, Nathan Wilson and Matt Kennedy. The loss of the two former players put definite holes in GWS' best 22 - although Dev underperformed in season 2017 - in the small/medium defender and small forward roles. The loss of Zac Williams in pre-season 2018 to a season-ending Achilles injury added to the team selection woes for the defensive setup, while Will Setterfield's season-ending injury also robs GWS of a young gun who would have been expected to play plenty of games. So, while GWS still retains plenty of exciting players, just entering their prime in terms of age and games played - such as Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Steve Coniglio, Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron & Lachie Whitfield - there are legitimate questions about GWS that are yet to be answered:
- can Rory Lobb satisfactorily fill Mummy's shoes as ruckman and produce a good platform for our gun midfield?
- can the defensive setup cope with the loss of both counterattacking guns Williams & Wilson?
- can GWS get the forward line functioning like 2016 (when they were the AFL's second best scoring team)?
So, where will GWS finish the home & away season? Well, I tend to look at the ladder in sections.
I think there are 6 teams that will fight out the top 4 positions on the ladder:
1. Adelaide. Despite the critics expecting a drop-off from them on the back of their GF loss and Lever's departure, I expect them to remain highly competitive with strong lineups in defence, mids & forwards. No surprise if they finish H&A as minor premiers.
2. Sydney. Perennial finalists, and after last year's early 0-6 disaster, they looked primed to attack 2018 from the outset.
3. Richmond. Ignoring the naysayers, they did a good job to win the flag last year, and looked primed again for an assault this year. However, their draw will be less favourable, they'll be in everyone's sights, and injuries to either Jack Reiwoldt or Dusty Martin could be quite costly - so they have potential to drop back a bit too.
4. Geelong. Also perennial finalists, adding Gary Ablett Jr to Selwood and Dangerfield in the midfield spells DANGER in capital letters. However, they have limitations throughout their team, and any injuries to their big 3 (Gaz being susceptible and Danger under threat for round 1) and could be pushed down.
5. Port Adelaide. I'm not as big on the hype around them adding Motlop, Watts & Rockliff as some (as I don't rate 2 of those 3 that highly), but after last season and adding talent, I think they'll definitely be in the mix.
6. GWS. Definitely in the mix, but we're going to have to fight hard to get top 4 (and desirably top 2 for home finals). We can do it, but hopefully the injury gods are kinder than in 2017.
The chasing pack:
1. Melbourne. There's a lot of commentators upbeat for Melbourne, and I largely agree with them, but can't help but pause and think about the 'Melbourne factor' - such as losing a spot in the 8 last year from a seemingly assured position. If Simon Goodwin can exorcise those 'demons' (pun intended), they could conceivably finish top 4, but overall I fully expect them to be a top 8 side.
2. Essendon. While most have the Bombers pegged as certain top 8 and even possible top 4, I think there was a bit of 'dead cat bounce' about last season, and despite adding Dev Smith, Stringer & Adam Saad, I don't think finals is a certainty.
3. Hawthorn. Can't write this team off - they almost made it last year after a disastrous start. However, I just don't think that they have enough polished players across the park to get there, unless they really play well and other teams have injury issues or otherwise fall backwards.
4. Bulldogs. I think they'll be better than season 2017, but they've still got issues primarily in attack & I honestly struggle to see who's going to kick a winning score for them week-in-week-out.
5. St Kilda. Should be definitely in the frame for a top 8 berth after season 2016, but stalled last year, and pre-season 2018 indicates the same issues remain. I expect them to be thereabouts, but fall short - just like last year.
The fight for the bottom 4 is also intriguing:
1. Gold Coast. With the addition of Stuart Dew and a bunch of new young players, they look primed to improve, but the Commonwealth Games robbing them of a home field in the first half of the year hurts them bigtime. By the time they're home, their younger players are likely to be starting to tire, so while I think they deserve to be higher ... I think that draw puts them in wooden spoon frame.
2. North Melbourne. As much as Norths' supporters hate to hear it, last year's results and their continued renewal seems likely to have them near the bottom of the ladder. No doubt they'll spring an upset or two, but as the two JLT matches showed, they'll also take some whacks.
3. Brisbane. I originally thought that Brisbane would be improvers this year, and while JLT matches are just pre-season, I'm a bit more pessimistic about Brisbane rising too much this year (sorry dlanod!). They'll improve, but incrementally this year.
4. Carlton. Despite their good JLT results, I think they'll still be up & down with their young team impacted by the losses of Gibbs and Docherty, notwithstanding their additions. I don't think they'll be wooden spooners, but likely bottom 4.
5. Collingwood. I scratch my head over this team and just put it down to Bucks' coaching. I expect them to drop further this year, and any injuries won't help.
6. West Coast. I think West Coast will drop quickly with their losses of Priddis, Mitchell & co from last year. Perhaps not bottom 4, but likely bottom of the mid-section and I just don't see them threatening for a spot in the 8.
7. Fremantle. I think there are some green shoots for Freo, and while I doubt they can make the top 8, I think they'll end up a bit higher than most expect - provided Neale & Fyfe remain healthy. Otherwise, bottom 4 is a possibility.
So, for GWS, we need to continue with Manuka and Spotless fortresses, winning the majority of games at home, but also learning to win against mid-table and bottom sides away.
Where do you think that we'll finish?
Land of the Giants will provide the weekly game previews for 2018, as he did in 2017. I'm happy to use this thread for everyone's general thoughts on season 2018 for GWS or other teams, and any general comment on progress throughout the season.
Go GIANTS!
So 2018 does see GWS competitive for the flag. The recent AFL captain's poll puts GWS, Adelaide and Richmond as the most likely teams to make the Grand Final by their assessment. Which means nothing at all when the season actually fires up. At the end of last season, GWS did lose significant experience with the retirements of Shane Mumford and Steve Johnson, and trading out Devon Smith, Nathan Wilson and Matt Kennedy. The loss of the two former players put definite holes in GWS' best 22 - although Dev underperformed in season 2017 - in the small/medium defender and small forward roles. The loss of Zac Williams in pre-season 2018 to a season-ending Achilles injury added to the team selection woes for the defensive setup, while Will Setterfield's season-ending injury also robs GWS of a young gun who would have been expected to play plenty of games. So, while GWS still retains plenty of exciting players, just entering their prime in terms of age and games played - such as Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Steve Coniglio, Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron & Lachie Whitfield - there are legitimate questions about GWS that are yet to be answered:
- can Rory Lobb satisfactorily fill Mummy's shoes as ruckman and produce a good platform for our gun midfield?
- can the defensive setup cope with the loss of both counterattacking guns Williams & Wilson?
- can GWS get the forward line functioning like 2016 (when they were the AFL's second best scoring team)?
So, where will GWS finish the home & away season? Well, I tend to look at the ladder in sections.
I think there are 6 teams that will fight out the top 4 positions on the ladder:
1. Adelaide. Despite the critics expecting a drop-off from them on the back of their GF loss and Lever's departure, I expect them to remain highly competitive with strong lineups in defence, mids & forwards. No surprise if they finish H&A as minor premiers.
2. Sydney. Perennial finalists, and after last year's early 0-6 disaster, they looked primed to attack 2018 from the outset.
3. Richmond. Ignoring the naysayers, they did a good job to win the flag last year, and looked primed again for an assault this year. However, their draw will be less favourable, they'll be in everyone's sights, and injuries to either Jack Reiwoldt or Dusty Martin could be quite costly - so they have potential to drop back a bit too.
4. Geelong. Also perennial finalists, adding Gary Ablett Jr to Selwood and Dangerfield in the midfield spells DANGER in capital letters. However, they have limitations throughout their team, and any injuries to their big 3 (Gaz being susceptible and Danger under threat for round 1) and could be pushed down.
5. Port Adelaide. I'm not as big on the hype around them adding Motlop, Watts & Rockliff as some (as I don't rate 2 of those 3 that highly), but after last season and adding talent, I think they'll definitely be in the mix.
6. GWS. Definitely in the mix, but we're going to have to fight hard to get top 4 (and desirably top 2 for home finals). We can do it, but hopefully the injury gods are kinder than in 2017.
The chasing pack:
1. Melbourne. There's a lot of commentators upbeat for Melbourne, and I largely agree with them, but can't help but pause and think about the 'Melbourne factor' - such as losing a spot in the 8 last year from a seemingly assured position. If Simon Goodwin can exorcise those 'demons' (pun intended), they could conceivably finish top 4, but overall I fully expect them to be a top 8 side.
2. Essendon. While most have the Bombers pegged as certain top 8 and even possible top 4, I think there was a bit of 'dead cat bounce' about last season, and despite adding Dev Smith, Stringer & Adam Saad, I don't think finals is a certainty.
3. Hawthorn. Can't write this team off - they almost made it last year after a disastrous start. However, I just don't think that they have enough polished players across the park to get there, unless they really play well and other teams have injury issues or otherwise fall backwards.
4. Bulldogs. I think they'll be better than season 2017, but they've still got issues primarily in attack & I honestly struggle to see who's going to kick a winning score for them week-in-week-out.
5. St Kilda. Should be definitely in the frame for a top 8 berth after season 2016, but stalled last year, and pre-season 2018 indicates the same issues remain. I expect them to be thereabouts, but fall short - just like last year.
The fight for the bottom 4 is also intriguing:
1. Gold Coast. With the addition of Stuart Dew and a bunch of new young players, they look primed to improve, but the Commonwealth Games robbing them of a home field in the first half of the year hurts them bigtime. By the time they're home, their younger players are likely to be starting to tire, so while I think they deserve to be higher ... I think that draw puts them in wooden spoon frame.
2. North Melbourne. As much as Norths' supporters hate to hear it, last year's results and their continued renewal seems likely to have them near the bottom of the ladder. No doubt they'll spring an upset or two, but as the two JLT matches showed, they'll also take some whacks.
3. Brisbane. I originally thought that Brisbane would be improvers this year, and while JLT matches are just pre-season, I'm a bit more pessimistic about Brisbane rising too much this year (sorry dlanod!). They'll improve, but incrementally this year.
4. Carlton. Despite their good JLT results, I think they'll still be up & down with their young team impacted by the losses of Gibbs and Docherty, notwithstanding their additions. I don't think they'll be wooden spooners, but likely bottom 4.
5. Collingwood. I scratch my head over this team and just put it down to Bucks' coaching. I expect them to drop further this year, and any injuries won't help.
6. West Coast. I think West Coast will drop quickly with their losses of Priddis, Mitchell & co from last year. Perhaps not bottom 4, but likely bottom of the mid-section and I just don't see them threatening for a spot in the 8.
7. Fremantle. I think there are some green shoots for Freo, and while I doubt they can make the top 8, I think they'll end up a bit higher than most expect - provided Neale & Fyfe remain healthy. Otherwise, bottom 4 is a possibility.
So, for GWS, we need to continue with Manuka and Spotless fortresses, winning the majority of games at home, but also learning to win against mid-table and bottom sides away.
Where do you think that we'll finish?
Land of the Giants will provide the weekly game previews for 2018, as he did in 2017. I'm happy to use this thread for everyone's general thoughts on season 2018 for GWS or other teams, and any general comment on progress throughout the season.
Go GIANTS!
