iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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2018 Australian Open
- Thread starter Jugada
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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Seppi is great value today against Edmund at $3-10.
Seppi coming off a great win against Karlovic and Edmund was average at best against Basilashvili in a game he easily could of lost and probably should have.
I cannot see that much of a difference ability wise and the market has Edmund a $1-35 favourite which i would not be touching.
On Seppi at a crappy 20pts an Ace and i have not spun over 20pts for ages now.
Not sure if you watched the game but the only reason it was close was that Edmund had a truly horrendous break point conversion ratio while Bash had a godly one - Edmund was the better player by panels.
PHX
Quarterback Style
I agree that those 2nd and 3rd sets should have gone the opposition's way based on probabilities.
I'm just saying he deservedly won the 1st set of that match, which is why saying it should've been a straight sets match wasn't right.
- Banned
- #1,304
Sandgren paying $17 to win in either four or five sets, this is the guy who mopped the floor with Wawrinka. Could be worth a sneaky tenner here, he’s also paying $23 to win in straights but I don’t see it.
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- Banned
- #1,305
Me thinks Marin Cilic will get up on Nadal, he’s paying $10 to win in 5 sets or $9.50 to win in 4, or $12 for straights. Tempting.
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Chism
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iluvparis
Import Whisperer
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If Sandgren was a horse you'd swear he'd had a dozen milkshakes heading into this tournament.
I'm liking Chung at the handicap v Djokovich and Cilic at the handicap v Nadal.
Chung had an impressive end to 2016 and knocked off Zverev last round (including winning 12 of the last 15 games). Also beat is Isner earlier this year, so 2 top-20 players. This is novak's first tournament after resting his elbow so perhaps a bit underdone .
Cilic pushed Nadal in shanghai at the end of last year, losing in a tight game. The main thing is he earned 5 break points off Nadal and won 2, and in their previous meeting he earned 7. Based in this I think the price on Cilic is slight overs and if he can make the breaks count this time then I think he will be competitive.
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Chung had an impressive end to 2016 and knocked off Zverev last round (including winning 12 of the last 15 games). Also beat is Isner earlier this year, so 2 top-20 players. This is novak's first tournament after resting his elbow so perhaps a bit underdone .
Cilic pushed Nadal in shanghai at the end of last year, losing in a tight game. The main thing is he earned 5 break points off Nadal and won 2, and in their previous meeting he earned 7. Based in this I think the price on Cilic is slight overs and if he can make the breaks count this time then I think he will be competitive.
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2nd_2_None
Debutant
- Jun 15, 2010
- 126
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Great call, hope that you followed through and won some $$$ on this!
- Banned
- #1,311
I’m too young to punt, made sure my brother got on it though $$$
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iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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The capital losses under the promo this year have been absolutely horrific. If punters blow all their rewards points Hills will have absolutely cleaned up.
Mine are going to my Velocity account - dollar value probably not as good but I'm trying to build up the balance for some upgrades anyway.
Sabbathen
Club Legend
- Aug 17, 2016
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Not if you’ve hedged every bet
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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True - but in the last two years you would have been better off not hedging
Sabbathen
Club Legend
- Aug 17, 2016
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Is that based on taking every favourite or taking the player with the higher average of aces?
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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Combination of both i.e. - pretty much every sub $1.35 fave but you take guys like Karlovic at $2.50 etc
Maybe this whole betting thing is not for you, friend.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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But but its not betting if you can't lose!!
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NutnButAPnut
Senior List
- May 26, 2015
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Edit: wrong thread
- Moderator
- #1,322
no payouts for retirements on WH.
Yes. Depends on bookie. I was on with Ladbrokes who have a 1-set retirement rule. So they pay on the player progressing as long as 1 set is completed. Some bookies still refund on retirement.
My handicap bet was void though.
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Quite happy with this. 4 bets 3 wins. Refund on my Cilic handicap which is annoying as there was no mathematical way Nadal could cover after the 4th set...
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