AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

[Sausage Legs]

gibbs +6
mclug +15
pendles +7
merret +2
ablett +4
ward +4
mitchell 0
oliver +5
dusty 0
gaff +2

are the ones i think are worth it.

the other clubs are too close to pick

I took Redden +12
McLean +17
McDonald +17
Titch square
Ward +4
Mundy +7
Crouch +5

 

[Keystone agony]

Still seeing some guys that are 3.5-4s that are getting 3s for me

Sinclair vs GWS early in year 3.5
R4 Macrae vs Syd @3.75
R6 Macrae vs Carl @4s

R5 Heppell 4.5
R5 R.Gray 5.5

R6 Ebert at 10s now even more amazing value

_____________________
R1 Does anyone have Gawn for 3 votes round 1?

R4 Coniglio 3 votes ? Anyone have him a chance better than his 8.50 suggest

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

BYOBrownlow Ablett to get 3 votes in round 1 and round 21 $7

Round 1: 39 touches and a goal in his return game for geelong would be hard for him not to get the 3 (Selwood also had 39 touches)
Round 21: 32 touches 3 goals with Danger getting 40 touches so this one could be 50/50

Thoughts?

 

[Keystone agony]

Coniglio and Sidebottom overs at 11s to lead after round 5.

I think bith players were fsr greater value but still offer a bit. 9 votes gets the job done probably in a tie. These are the only players going above that if someone does

 

[Keystone agony]

BYOBrownlow Ablett to get 3 votes in round 1 and round 21 $7

Round 1: 39 touches and a goal in his return game for geelong would be hard for him not to get the 3 (Selwood also had 39 touches)
Round 21: 32 touches 3 goals with Danger getting 40 touches so this one could be 50/50

Thoughts?

Whos doing this BYO ? Leeroy Brown 15

edit sportsbet

Love the Ablett one

 

[Sausage Legs]

BYOBrownlow Ablett to get 3 votes in round 1 and round 21 $7

Round 1: 39 touches and a goal in his return game for geelong would be hard for him not to get the 3 (Selwood also had 39 touches)
Round 21: 32 touches 3 goals with Danger getting 40 touches so this one could be 50/50

Thoughts?

Well Sportsbet have them at 1.90 and 2.10 so roughly 4 bucks. Guess that means 7s is overs. I gave him 2.5 in both games not that that means a heap.

 

[the_big_sav]

I took Redden +12
McLean +17
McDonald +17
Titch square
Ward +4
Mundy +7
Crouch +5

mcdonald and oliver were a flip of the coin for me

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Merrett most 1 vote games $21, have a weird feeling about this one.

Redden in the wild west (SB) $2.30 is probably my favourite bet on SB.

Danger $1.25 to beat Adelaide's leader, don't see this not happening. Many tipping laird to be the disappointment.

 

[VK92]

Martin Top 5, Beams Top 10, MaCrae Top 20 & Mitchell Top 3 @ $2.10 Lads
2U

I just can’t see how this loses!

 

[NonPhixion]

BYO - cripps to poll in most no. Of games & Mitchell to win @11. Value to me

 

[Sausage Legs]

mcdonald and oliver were a flip of the coin for me

Agree, went T-Mac as saw as a decent hedge cos I have Oliver to do well in a few other markets.

 

[demon_fanatic]

People still liking Gawn Grundy and Cripps to poll over 20?
Betfair have set all 3 players lines at 17.5
Grundy and Cripps unders on TopSport have been hammered, they were an even $1.90 a week ago...

Can't seem to load rhr Betfair player votes but I'll def be taking gawn n cripps over 17.5..grundy yeh not sold on him

 

[Hellboy101]

Coniglio and Sidebottom overs at 11s to lead after round 5.

I think bith players were fsr greater value but still offer a bit. 9 votes gets the job done probably in a tie. These are the only players going above that if someone does

I have been giving this market some thought. Fyfe easily gets 9, Mitchell 8/9 depending on round 3 in a losing side. I don't think Dusty poles in round 5 which means maybe 7. I like Cogs at 11's - hoping he gets two round 1, three round two, two round three and 1's in both the last two rounds.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Still seeing some guys that are 3.5-4s that are getting 3s for me

Sinclair vs GWS early in year 3.5
R4 Macrae vs Syd @3.75
R6 Macrae vs Carl @4s

R5 Heppell 4.5
R5 R.Gray 5.5

R6 Ebert at 10s now even more amazing value

_____________________
R1 Does anyone have Gawn for 3 votes round 1?

R4 Coniglio 3 votes ? Anyone have him a chance better than his 8.50 suggest

Rd 5 port lost easily to Geelong same with ESS vs pies..heppel and Gray's performance not dominant enough for 3,bont was widely acknowledged as bog vs Carlton... Macrae possessions look nice but that's Macrae..umps love bont..sinclair a chance but has to overcome late buddy brilliance

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Martin Top 5, Beams Top 10, MaCrae Top 20 & Mitchell Top 3 @ $2.10 Lads
2U

I just can’t see how this loses!

Tailed

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Keystone agony]

Rd 5 port lost easily to Geelong same with ESS vs pies..heppel and Gray's performance not dominant enough for 3,bont was widely acknowledged as bog vs Carlton... Macrae possessions look nice but that's Macrae..umps love bont..sinclair a chance but has to overcome late buddy brilliance

Sorry R.Gray dn Heppell were meant to be round 4 when they played against eachother at those odds mentioned. Got my rounds wrong. Round 4

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Martin Top 5, Beams Top 10, MaCrae Top 20 & Mitchell Top 3 @ $2.10 Lads
2U

I just can’t see how this loses!

Could easily throw in Oliver top 20

 

[noffle]

I reckon the markets have got it pretty good this year. I will take Gawn U21.5, Beams U20.5 and Macrae U18.5 but I don't see much else that I like.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Something a little crazy here, Charlie Dixon @ 26 (BetEasy) to get the three against St Kilda in Round 16. It's rough. He has get past Motlop, Rockliff and Wingard from Port and Armitage from St Kilda (at least) but he did kick 4 goals, 10 CP, 5 MI50, 3 1%s and even a bounce. With those stats, he is about 5% of getting the 3 based on the previous 2 years. He kicked 3 out his 4 in the final quarter, and might just stick in the minds of the umps for that reason.

Not calling it value. Calling it crazy, but it's my kind of crazy.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Something a little crazy here, Charlie Dixon @ 26 (BetEasy) to get the three against St Kilda in Round 16. It's rough. He has get past Motlop, Rockliff and Wingard from Port and Armitage from St Kilda (at least) but he did kick 4 goals, 10 CP, 5 MI50, 3 1%s and even a bounce. With those stats, he is about 5% of getting the 3 based on the previous 2 years. He kicked 3 out his 4 in the final quarter, and might just stick in the minds of the umps for that reason.

Not calling it value. Calling it crazy, but it's my kind of crazy.

I had Dixon to kick 4 or more at 7s this game thought it was dead and I reckon he kicked 3 in the last 2 mins.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Something a little crazy here, Charlie Dixon @ 26 (BetEasy) to get the three against St Kilda in Round 16. It's rough. He has get past Motlop, Rockliff and Wingard from Port and Armitage from St Kilda (at least) but he did kick 4 goals, 10 CP, 5 MI50, 3 1%s and even a bounce. With those stats, he is about 5% of getting the 3 based on the previous 2 years. He kicked 3 out his 4 in the final quarter, and might just stick in the minds of the umps for that reason.

Not calling it value. Calling it crazy, but it's my kind of crazy.

Not as crazy as my favourite sportsbet byo:
Round 10, kangas vs freo, Jacobs 3 votes Fyfe 2 votes @ 51

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Keystone agony]

Not as crazy as my favourite sportsbet byo:
Round 10, kangas vs freo, Jacobs 3 votes Fyfe 2 votes @ 51

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

Love it one of my counts actually has this to be the case.

Good by sportsbet allowing me to get a wooping $5 on

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Yeah same here Haha. Plus like you said not out of the question of some predicted counts ive seen including J'mans

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[bph25]

My least favorite markets

Handicap- they make everyone a chance unlike other markets where u can round it down to 1 or 2 people.
Shocking bet

3 vote games

Apart from the obvious low odd ones
It’s a raffle between 4-5 people.
Maybe first day of betting is good on this but then leave it

Best bets are ones that are averaged out over the whole season.
Top 5 top 10 top 20

You are allowing for thing to not go your way one week and still be a chance.

Just my thoughts. Don’t let one umpires decision one day break your bank

 

[stuziman]

Handicaps are for mugs but 3 vote game markets are awesome. There is always inefficiencies in there, just have to get in early.

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