AFL 2018 Brownlow Medal

Remove this Banner Ad

I like Cripps not to finish in the top five at $3.50 with Sportsbet.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Mitchell over 24.5 votes on Betfair currently paying $3.55.
 
zjy15v.png


https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plus/australian-rules/market/1.147887319
 
Disregard. That is now showing Dustin Martin.

BF * up as per usual.
 
X_box_X said:
Not massive value at all.

JDG and Pendles are both favoured to poll three votes ahead of Adams.

Adams is paying $9 on TAB for a reason. The fact you haven't shopped around for superior odds shows that your research is limited.
Click to expand...

Hence why im already on him @11, why I said 'still'. but nice try. Mate Ive watched this game multiple times, I don't just look at odds and browse the stat sheet. Adams was our BEST player this game. But that's just my opinion and umpires are completely different.
 
mitchell dusty 1,2 finish
gws have 4x10+ votes

if these 2 get up i dont have to worry rest of night

zorko w/o beams
higgins
steven
bont w/o macrea

are my main anchors, so i should at very least break even assuming these get up

everything else ive done will hopefully be gravey

good luck everyone
 
GAsnr said:
Where?

Edit: all good don't stress, just saw follow up post
Click to expand...
Yeah sorry.

Having said that, Martin over 24.5 votes at $3.75 seems pretty good.

His line is 22.5 everywhere else with overs paying between $1.80 - $1.95.

Surely for an extra couple of votes, the $3.75 seems good...
 
Champion Data says Carlton’s Patrick Cripps unlikely to feature in Brownlow finish
JAY CLARK, Herald Sun
September 17, 2018 7:00am
Subscriber only

PATRICK Cripps’ stunning individual season is predicted to receive no love form the umpires in Monday night’s Brownlow Medal count, according to Champion Data.

The number-crunchers expect Hawthorn ball magnet and $1.60 favourite Tom Mitchell (29 votes) to take out the prestigious award narrowly ahead of Richmond’s Dustin Martin (28) and superstar Cat Patrick Dangerfield (23).

Richmond captain Trent Cotchin is tipped to present the medal to teammate Martin in the event he can pull off the massive upset and claim back-to-back Brownlows next week.

Champion Data also has Melbourne ace Max Gawn winning the battle of the superstar ruckmen in seventh place with 18 votes, one vote ahead of Collingwood big man and Herald Sun player of the year Brodie Grundy.

And West Coast’s Andrew Gaff’s contract value is tipped to receive another boost, with the North Melbourne free agency target slated to come fourth, despite missing the last three games due to suspension.

Patrick Cripps earned more free kicks for than any other player in 2018. Pic: Getty Images

But Cripps will be one of the biggest talking points of the night, with the herculean ball winner widely rated to finish top-five and poll about 20 votes after an incredible season.

The man who won the fifth-most disposals and second-most clearances in the league is equal fourth-favourite with TAB.

But Champion Data say a major anti-climax is in store for the West Australian wrecking ball, with the club’s two-win season and his poor polling form from last year set to count against Carlton’s captain-in-waiting.

They have Cripps, 23, finishing in 29th place overall on 12 votes.

It would be a shock result, but also validate beliefs umpires strongly prefer to give the maximum three votes to the best player from the winning team.

The 195cm Cripps polled only five votes last year, but gained much more attention form the whistle blowers in 2016 when he polled 18 votes as a 21-year-old.

Champion Data believe Cripps will poll votes in the Blues’ only two wins of the season, against Essendon in Round 8 (27 disposals) and Gold Coast in Round 19 (30 disposals).

He is also tipped to poll in Round 14 (29) and Round 15 (33), but overall fall well short of most predicted tallies.

The last Brownlow medallist to come from a struggling team was former Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett when he polled 28 votes to win by one vote over current Geelong teammate and skipper Joel Selwood.

But in that year the Suns won eight games, and Ablett polled a maximum three votes in six of them.

While Melbourne’s Gawn is a $7.50 second-favourite with TAB, Champion Data tipped his brilliant onball teammate Clayton Oliver to finish one vote higher on the night, in fifth overall.

Essendon captain Dyson Heppell is also tipped to be a Brownlow bolter this year and surge up the charts with a career-high 19 votes, upstaging star teammate Zach Merrett.

Mitchell is tipped to perform strongly and poll in 10 of his first 15 games, and then surge further ahead in a three-game purple patch between Rounds 18-20.

He had 131 possessions across the three games to carve up non-finalists Carlton, Fremantle and Essendon in that streak.

But last year’s runaway medallist Martin, after a quiet start, could charge at Mitchell in the final two rounds with four goals against Essendon and 33 touches against Western Bulldogs.

CHAMPION DATA'S BROWNLOW LEADERBOARD
Player Expected vote tally
1. Tom Mitchell (Haw) 29 votes
2. Dustin Martin (Rich) 28
3. Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 23
4. *Andrew Gaff (WC) 22
Eq 5. Clayton Oliver (Melb) 19
Eq 5. Dyson Heppell (Ess) 19
Eq 7. Max Gawn (Melb) 18
Eq 7. Jackson Macrae (WB) 18
Eq 9. Stephen Coniglio (GWS) 17
Eq 9. Brodie Grundy (Coll) 17
29th - Patrick Cripps (Carl) 12
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

PowerfulPies2023
  • Sticky
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
5K
Pinnell
P
rank and file
AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls
31 32 33 34 35
Replies
862
Views
66K
balmainforever
balmainforever
kickazz
Four arrested in 2022 Brownlow betting investigation
2 3 4
Replies
77
Views
4K
NYRB
N

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top