Preview 2018 Draft General Discussion

[bungalow_bill]

Yeah that was back in 2015 I think it was Jay Clark who said the Lions should have lost the game to get pick 1.

And it made no difference as the blues were always taking Weitering

 

[demondavey]

Recall a couple of years back the Lions won the final game V Dogs? and the media were saying we blew it! The media! It being the number 1 pick. Winning culture is vital to future success

It's absolutely vital. This fascination with the draft is a joke. The draft itself is a total lottery evidenced by some champions being taken well outside the first round.

 

[demondavey]

Yeah that was back in 2015 I think it was Jay Clark who said the Lions should have lost the game to get pick 1.

Any journalist that peddles that philosophy should hand in his resignation letter. It smacks of ignorance.

 

[yaco55]

Well if the 2018 draft is as strong as we think, there's a very good chance, every club will find a good player in the first round - Any talk of tanking is silly.

 

[GoGrows]

It's absolutely vital.

Can you spell out what "culture" is exactly?

 

[PMBangers]

At this stage looking very strong in the first round with a gradual drop (like every draft) but nowhere near as bad as the depth of this draft was. I think Rankine or Lukosious are pick 1 favourites depending on who finishes last (If Gold Coast finish last and Lynch leaves, Lukosious goes 1. If North/Brisbane/Carlton finish last Rankine goes pick 1). Still a few players I see really bolting up the order with this season coming being their spotlight year, guys like Issac Quaynor and Bailey Smith come to mind

 

[demondavey]

Can you spell out what "culture" is exactly?

Culture is an underlying set of values held throughout an organisation. It is influenced by the actions, behaviours, expectations, standards and leadership of that organisation.

I'll help you out a bit more. When tanking occurs, it doesn't really set high expectations and standards.

 

[borderbarry]

Clubs dont only tank to get the number one pick either. I am sure towards the end of the season a bit of tanking goes on just to improve a clubs draft position.

 

[jjami15]

At this stage looking very strong in the first round with a gradual drop (like every draft) but nowhere near as bad as the depth of this draft was. I think Rankine or Lukosious are pick 1 favourites depending on who finishes last (If Gold Coast finish last and Lynch leaves, Lukosious goes 1. If North/Brisbane/Carlton finish last Rankine goes pick 1). Still a few players I see really bolting up the order with this season coming being their spotlight year, guys like Issac Quaynor and Bailey Smith come to mind

If Lynch leaves via FA then GC will have both Lukosius and Rankine

 

[bungalow_bill]

If Lynch leaves via FA then GC will have both Lukosius and Rankine

GC would still have Wright would they need another KPF? Or would they draft a couple of elite mids?

 

[HedgeFund]

If Lynch leaves via FA then GC will have both Lukosius and Rankine

How? GC compensation for losing Lynch to FA won’t be a top 2 pick.

 

[jjami15]

How? GC compensation for losing Lynch to FA won’t be a top 2 pick.

GC are my tip to finish last and I reckon the $$$ that will be needed to get Lynch will easily guarantee top tier compo.

 

[PMBangers]

GC are my tip to finish last and I reckon the $$$ that will be needed to get Lynch will easily guarantee top tier compo.

There's no chance they wouldn't match unless they had no room in the cap, and unless Lynch moves to Carlton or North as they're the most likely of vic teams to finish last I doubt they'll be getting picks 1 and 2.

 

[Pykie]

At this stage looking very strong in the first round with a gradual drop (like every draft) but nowhere near as bad as the depth of this draft was. I think Rankine or Lukosious are pick 1 favourites depending on who finishes last (If Gold Coast finish last and Lynch leaves, Lukosious goes 1. If North/Brisbane/Carlton finish last Rankine goes pick 1). Still a few players I see really bolting up the order with this season coming being their spotlight year, guys like Issac Quaynor and Bailey Smith come to mind

You aren't picking in the best draft in a decade based off needs.

I'm pretty confident at this stage we would take Lukosious or King to pair with Brown if in that position, especially since we will be getting Thomas not long after.

 

[PMBangers]

You aren't picking in the best draft in a decade based off needs.

I'm pretty confident at this stage we would take Lukosious or King to pair with Brown if in that position, especially since we will be getting Thomas not long after.

Well if you've got a need for a KPF then you'll pick the best one to have shown up for a solid 10-17 years, if you need a mid then you take the best SA midfield talent for the same amount of time. You can't lose with Pick 1 at this stage but there is an element of selecting on needs when the best available are very equal in terms of skill based on position

 

[Snake_Baker]

I can't tell you how often I've been at games at the end of the season and I've overheard Melbourne supporters saying 'If we finish X on the ladder we get pick Y'

It's an absolute disgrace. The draft should be a lottery to totally rule this out.

The draft still is a lottery anyway.

 

[briztoon]

GC are my tip to finish last and I reckon the $,$$$,$$$ that will be needed to get Lynch will easily guarantee top tier compo.

Fixed that for you.

 

[briztoon]

How? GC compensation for losing Lynch to FA won’t be a top 2 pick.

You're kidding right.

There's no chance they wouldn't match unless they had no room in the cap, and unless Lynch moves to Carlton or North as they're the most likely of vic teams to finish last I doubt they'll be getting picks 1 and 2.

If Lynch says he has no intention of returning, GC will take the compo pick.

They can threaten about redrafting him, PSD, etc. Everyone knows they would be hollow threats. The contract that Lynch will be offered by Collingwood will easily be band one compo.

The draft still is a lottery anyway.

Not sure you understand what demondavey i saying. Pretty sure he is referring to the NBA draft lottery model.

 

[HedgeFund]

A couple of points if I may:

1. There’s no guarantee that talent shown as a 17 year old will naturally progress to similar dominance as an 18 year old.

Examples I can think of are Higgins, Hayes and D. Fogarty who were all touted as possible #1s around this time last year and went at 12, 17, and I think 47.

2. If these kids are so much stronger - why is that when they’ve been playing almost exclusively against similar aged peers for the past 5 years? Does that mean their similar aged peers are really crap at defending?

I realise Lukosis and Rankine have played a game or two of senior SANFL ,so that’s a very small sample size, but have these other kids played much WAFL or NEAFL seniors in 2017?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Midfielders can catch you out, but i'm happy to put everything I own on Lukosious going top 3.

 

[HedgeFund]

You're kidding right.

Not at all, you’re presuming GC finish last and Lynch is deemed worthy of a round 1 pick.

Neither are guaranteed at this stage are they?

 

[Pykie]

A couple of points if I may:

1. There’s no guarantee that talent shown as a 17 year old will naturally progress to similar dominance as an 18 year old.

Examples I can think of are Higgins, Hayes and D. Fogarty who were all touted as possible #1s around this time last year and went at 12, 17, and I think 47.

2. If these kids are so much stronger - why is that when they’ve been playing almost exclusively against similar aged peers for the past 5 years? Does that mean their similar aged peers are really crap at defending?

I realise Lukosis and Rankine have played a game or two of senior SANFL ,so that’s a very small sample size, but have these other kids played much WAFL or NEAFL seniors in 2017?

It's not just an off the cuff comment.

They ARE statistically the best underage crop ever according to champion data.

Across both the TAC Cup and the Champs they have the highest average ranking points per 17 year old in the last 12 years since they've been collating that level of data.

I think just looking at them will tell you all you need. Rankine, Hill, Thomas, Walsh etc are rake thin, they aren't doing it off of size like a Worpel did.

Even Lukosius has a far different game to former #1 prospects like Boyd, McCartin, Patton; Boyd & Patton especially just bullied kids at that level.

He is far more of an agile, skill based tall forward - like Roughhead, Franklin etc than a Tom Hawkins type

 

[HedgeFund]

It's not just an off the cuff comment.

They ARE statistically the best underage crop ever according to champion data.

Across both the TAC Cup and the Champs they have the highest average ranking points per 17 year old in the last 12 years since they've been collating that level of data.

I think just looking at them will tell you all you need. Rankine, Hill, Thomas, Walsh are rake thin, they aren't doing it off of size like a Worpel did.

Even Lukosious has a far different game to former #1 prospects like Boyd, McCartin, Patton; Boyd & Patton especially just bullied kids at that level.

He is far more of an agile, skill based tall forward (Roughhead, Franklin etc than a Tom Hawkins type)

Sorry. You lost me at “according to Champion Data”.

You only rack up stats if the opposition let you.

 

[Pykie]

Sorry. You lost me at “according to Champion Data”.

You only rack up stats if the opposition let you.

The rankings are weighted accordingly towards contested statistics like contested possessions, tackles, clearances, so generally you have better a ranking if you win the ball yourself.

Sorry.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Sorry. You lost me at “according to Champion Data”.

You only rack up stats if the opposition let you.

Okay.

Who do you rank in the top group according to contested possessions, clearances, tackles and contested marks?

The rankings are weighted accordingly towards contested statistics like contested possessions, tackles, clearances, so generally you have better a ranking if you win the ball yourself.

Sorry.

Beat me to it.