List Mgmt. 2018 Draft Prospects aka the West and Khamis thread

Bazza28

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An interesting aspect to this year for me is having the new recruiting team and trying to figure out what they're all about after having Dal for all that time. I'm sure it's probably been discussed during the 8 months or so that I haven't been on but whatever.

Obviously Austin played a part in building the current dominant side in the comp, which is fantastic. During his time there they only had one top 10 pick, taking Nick Vlastuin at 9 in 2012. A pretty good pick, especially considering the players taken straight after him in the first round apart from probably Grundy who a lot of others overlooked as well. They also had some notable whiffs in hindsight in the first round, taking Ben Lennon ahead of the likes of Patrick Cripps and Corey Ellis ahead of the likes of Jake Lever. They've also had 0 success in drafting talls during that period, with the jury out on the more recent ones.

Their real success probably came from some of their recent mid to late picks, with Graham, Lambert, Butler, Broad and Castagna all now premiership players. Clearly he loves his small forwards too, which has become Richmond's trademark, and isn't afraid to use a first rounder on one. Good news for us as we could do with one. This leads me to think we'd probably take Rankine if he was there, I've got the sneaking suspicion that the previous regime might well have overlooked him in favour of a Smith or a King twin given the respective player types and what their personalities seem to be.
Austin was pro scout in charge of finding the mature age players you listed not the kids.
 

murphy2bedabest

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what's the FS and NGA looking like for the next few years? I get that you can't bank on 13-16 yo 100% and hope they'll produce what they are predicted atm.

that all said with the number of potential guys we have coming through the club would have to look at what type of players they think might make it.

2018 west and buku inside mid and HBF
2019 libba ? mid ? macca ? mid kellett??? HFF?
2020 Darcy ? ruck/KPP??

the point im making is even though some might not make it and it's too hard to tell, we may have lets just say 5 players to good to pass up over a 3 year period, all inside mid types.

Is this something that we might try and manage for list balance?
 
what's the FS and NGA looking like for the next few years? I get that you can't bank on 13-16 yo 100% and hope they'll produce what they are predicted atm.

that all said with the number of potential guys we have coming through the club would have to look at what type of players they think might make it.

2018 west and buku inside mid and HBF
2019 libba ? mid ? macca ? mid kellett??? HFF?
2020 Darcy ? ruck/KPP??

the point im making is even though some might not make it and it's too hard to tell, we may have lets just say 5 players to good to pass up over a 3 year period, all inside mid types.

Is this something that we might try and manage for list balance?
Our father son and NGA stock is looking amazing, dogs invested a lot of timr in talent searching
Picking quick midfielders and tall forwards
Reckon a few will be top 30 talent
Lochie Dawson surely worth a spot.
Chatfield and dawson will be at dogs as cat b players
 

bobby2

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The only way you are going to get a top KPF is through the draft and with a first round pick.

With the exception of Tex and Ben Brown the top KPFs in the league now all were low picks - Kennedy, Buddy, Roughead, Hawkins, Daniher, Curnow, Riewaldt, Hipwood, Dixon, Lynch, Hogan.

I guess you could hope 2016 (flag with no KPF) is repeated but it is certainly reducing your odds of another flag.
Your second paragraph disproves your first on several counts. You've said that you can only get these players through the draft, but that's not how Kennedy, Franklin and Dixon's respective clubs acquired them.

Add in Tom McDonald late in the draft, Jack Darling in the second round as well as Jack Gunston and Josh Jenkins through trade, and it paints a very different picture.
 

bobby2

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Yet the great Clay Smith had never even had an injury until he was drafted and look what happened there. :(:'(:mad:
It's awful luck, but if anything, it actually supports HK bulldog's point. Players like Clay, who injure their ACL are at a very high risk of having more ACLs in the future.

If we know someone has done an ACL in the past, recruiting them is a significant risk. That risk needs to be weighed against the benefits they could bring to the team.
 

Doggy

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Our father son and NGA stock is looking amazing, dogs invested a lot of timr in talent searching
Picking quick midfielders and tall forwards
Reckon a few will be top 30 talent

Chatfield and dawson will be at dogs as cat b players

Why not just select them as rookies rather than take a chance they will be there that late
 

VogonProsthetnic

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Your second paragraph disproves your first on several counts. You've said that you can only get these players through the draft, but that's not how Kennedy, Franklin and Dixon's respective clubs acquired them.

Add in Tom McDonald late in the draft, Jack Darling in the second round as well as Jack Gunston and Josh Jenkins through trade, and it paints a very different picture.


With Darling, he was going to be a first rounder, but rumours of behavioural issues pushed him back to pick 20 or 22 I think.

Gunston pretty sure was drafted low.

Jenkins- until he plays a decent final not sure you can classify him as a dominant KPF.

Kennedy went 3 and Franklin 6.

Dixon- was a GC zone selection. No idea where he would have been drafted. Would have been pretty low.

Will give you Tom McDonald.
 

Yojimbo

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It's awful luck, but if anything, it actually supports HK bulldog's point. Players like Clay, who injure their ACL are at a very high risk of having more ACLs in the future.

If we know someone has done an ACL in the past, recruiting them is a significant risk. That risk needs to be weighed against the benefits they could bring to the team.
Yeah I agree, I would not have touched Stringer or Burton after their horrific broken legs either. The point I was making was that
players like Clay Smith also buck the trend in that they are never injured until they get to AFL level. Until the human body is
exposed to the punishing regime that is AFL football how it will react and cope are pure guess work, Joel Selwood was bone on
bone and yet has been very durable there is no magic solution or formula.
 
With Darling, he was going to be a first rounder, but rumours of behavioural issues pushed him back to pick 20 or 22 I think.

Gunston pretty sure was drafted low.

Jenkins- until he plays a decent final not sure you can classify him as a dominant KPF.

Kennedy went 3 and Franklin 6.

Dixon- was a GC zone selection. No idea where he would have been drafted. Would have been pretty low.

Will give you Tom McDonald.
Gunston #29, Darling #26.
 
So our 5 picks are likely pick 5, West, Khamis, Dawson, Chatfield?
More likely to be Pick 5, West, Khamis, speculative late pick, 3 x rookie upgrades.

Rookie draft (if retained) I expect to retain NMM and both Dawson/Chatfield to not attract a rival bid.

I also expect us to pick up Lloyd from Richmond during the trade period and perhaps another player.
 

flipper83

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It's awful luck, but if anything, it actually supports HK bulldog's point. Players like Clay, who injure their ACL are at a very high risk of having more ACLs in the future.

If we know someone has done an ACL in the past, recruiting them is a significant risk. That risk needs to be weighed against the benefits they could bring to the team.
Is the increased risk due to genetic traits because often players who do one knee will do the opposite one the next time? If so then Ben King would have to just as risky in terms of potential for ACL's
 

MJ_Dogs

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More likely to be Pick 5, West, Khamis, speculative late pick, 3 x rookie upgrades.

Rookie draft (if retained) I expect to retain NMM and both Dawson/Chatfield to not attract a rival bid.

I also expect us to pick up Lloyd from Richmond during the trade period and perhaps another player.
Expect because it makes sense or you have inside word?

Lloyd would be a good get especially if Dickson can’t go on
 
Expect because it makes sense or you have inside word?

Lloyd would be a good get especially if Dickson can’t go on
More than one source. Lloyd (and Miles, understandably) are not happy at Richmond they're considered outside the best 22.
One other source has suggested we've already spoken to Lloyd's manager.

Dickson is done, sadly. We need an experienced head forward of the ball and Lloyd will cost virtually nothing and would be playing right now if he was on our list. Can tackle too which is a bonus, and can play either higher up the ground or deep forward.
 

bobby2

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With Darling, he was going to be a first rounder, but rumours of behavioural issues pushed him back to pick 20 or 22 I think.

Gunston pretty sure was drafted low.

Jenkins- until he plays a decent final not sure you can classify him as a dominant KPF.

Kennedy went 3 and Franklin 6.

Dixon- was a GC zone selection. No idea where he would have been drafted. Would have been pretty low.

Will give you Tom McDonald.
My point was that Kennedy, Franklin, Jenkins, Gunstson and Dixon were all acquired through trade/FA- that provides a clear alternative to drafting tall forwards.

If you're not going to include Jenkins due to a lack of performance in finals, but you are going to include several players who've never played a final in their career, that doesn't seem right to me. 221 goals in just over 4 and a half seasons of football is significantly better than the production of several others you mentioned.
 

bobby2

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Yeah I agree, I would not have touched Stringer or Burton after their horrific broken legs either. The point I was making was that
players like Clay Smith also buck the trend in that they are never injured until they get to AFL level. Until the human body is
exposed to the punishing regime that is AFL football how it will react and cope are pure guess work, Joel Selwood was bone on
bone and yet has been very durable there is no magic solution or formula.
Yeah, you're right, it's rotten luck with Clay.

I'd suggest that the re-injury rate for broken legs is much lower than that for ACLs, making it much less risky. The recovery takes significantly longer though.

Is the increased risk due to genetic traits because often players who do one knee will do the opposite one the next time? If so then Ben King would have to just as risky in terms of potential for ACL's
The increased risk is mostly because the reconstructed ligament is significantly weaker than the original ligament.

There is probably some genetic element as well though, and there are also types of exercise training that can help prevent ACL injuries.
 
More likely to be Pick 5, West, Khamis, speculative late pick, 3 x rookie upgrades.

Rookie draft (if retained) I expect to retain NMM and both Dawson/Chatfield to not attract a rival bid.

I also expect us to pick up Lloyd from Richmond during the trade period and perhaps another player.
Is the Lloyd idea yours or something you've heard? Is he a free agent?
 
Is the Lloyd idea yours or something you've heard? Is he a free agent?
Not my idea, knew hardly anything about him until recently. Don't think he's a FA, just on the outer in a side flush for forwards shorter than 6' 2" (hence a lot of people speculating Shai Bolton is also on the move).
 
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