List Mgmt. 2018 Draft thread.

[Saintly Viewed]

All good and well saying Carlton rates Stocker top 5, but going by SOS’ past drafts he’s not got a great eye for talent .

And he’ll have to perform at that level.
Top 5 or so projects a player at the level (to use Collingwood players as an example) De Goey, Stephenson.

If the player doesn’t show that level (assuming healthy) it’s too high risk for that level pick.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Perfect day for me is this scenario:

> Kelly not bid on before pick 25, ensuring we don't go into deficit next year.

> Atu B not being bid on until after pick 56, ensuring we can match without points

> Wraith not being bid on at all, and us listing him as a Cat B

> Tohill being the Irish that we list as a Cat A

Needs more Riley Grundy.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

Needs more Riley Grundy.

Would love Riley Grundy but doubt it happens. If we get Grundy, scratch Wraith and put Atu as the Cat B. But I think Atu will get bid on.

 

[unplugged]

Surely the next 5 or so picks will leak amongst the clubs before midday!

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

Surely the next 5 or so picks will leak amongst the clubs before midday!

I don't think Melbourne has a pick in the next five so Gary Pert won't have an opportunity to leak.

 

[Mkcaptain]

Happy draft day (2/2)

 

[Snoop Dog]

Interesting day ahead.

Not to many sliders. Hill and Taylor only two I didnt have. Ned and Curtis slipped in but had them at 26 & 27.

Isaac was about where I expected him to be.

Think Kelly gets bid 25-30. Dont think Atu does but might be wrong.

Post 30 think you will see some serious sliders. Could be some nice options later but the guys am talking to think 30+ will be pretty random

 

[partypie]

I actually think Adelaide may take the SA boy Valente at 24.

Yeah I have Hill to WC at 23 and Valenti (or maybe Taylor) to Adelaide at 24 but they will put in a bid on Briggs first I suspect.

Melbourne unlikely to bid on another tall defrnder in Kelly when it costs us nothing and I reckon someone will sniff around Bailey Scott as well in the mid 20's with North Melbourne a little vulnerable.

In relation to Scott I can see a potentially very hasty trade involving North Melbourne getting back into the second or third round when the bid for Scott comes in - should be a bit of theatre there...

 

[Maggie5]

Two observations from my perspective:

1. Hats off to the analysts. I would kill to get the info they had on this draft, but to get our points to within 5 or so of the deficit is worth noting. My guess is they needed to know exactly where every academy/ FS bid was going to come inside the top 30 and what picks the respective clubs would use to match those bids. It’s almost as impressive as the work done by Sydney which was masterful!

2. The points system is an absolute joke. We’re going to land 2 top 25 talents that we probably rated somewhere inside our top 15-20 for 5 picks between 40 and 60. That just shouldn’t happen because as the academy’s grow the first round is going to morph into a system where clubs with good academy’s have no picks in the top 30 and clubs with poor academy’s have the lions share of top 30 picks. It’s not necessarily a bad thing it’s just not good...

What I find strange is an opposition club selecting a player that they know the other club will match for an Academy or F/S. Seems a waste of time.

Can't recall where it hasn't been matched.

 

[Mkcaptain]

What I find strange is an opposition club selecting a player that they know the other club will match for an Academy or F/S. Seems a waste of time.

Can't recall where it hasn't been matched.

It has happened before but not for top end talent

 

[Moeydw]

Is round 2 being televised? Foxfooty seems to be replaying the 1st round

 

[Soups]

Is round 2 being televised? Foxfooty seems to be replaying the 1st round

12pm it starts.

 

[Crazy Tails]

Bit late to the party in this thread.

Initially I was pissed with the Giants for bidding on IQ at 13 but it ticks off us making a first round pick (for future trade flex), we were justified to move our 1st out this year (as it would have been swallowed up matching this bid) and we have landed a kid that is rated top 15 with 3 junk picks past 40 (and got 64 back with points excess).

Does this mean we technically landed Beams for our 2019 first?

As for today as others have stated we have left picks 53 (233 points), 54 (220 points) and 64 (101 points) for a total of 554 points.

Adding the 197 point discount to this figure we have 751 to play which means pick 25 is the magical number we have to watch today for Kelly to get past.

We will know pretty early on though as the Crows pick at 24 (2nd pick to be made today) seems the most dangerous one that could see us go into the slightest points deficit on our 2019 2nd round pick.

Not sure WC will bid on Briggs at 23 (after bringing in Hickey and Brooksby) but that would certainly help. GWS would need to use pick 28 to match. The excess points would only net them pick 68 back (after our 3 remaining points picks).

So this would bring all of our 3 picks forward to 52 (246), 53 (233) and 63 (112) for 591 points. Adding the discount back we then have 788 points which would match a Crows bid at 24 with no deficit!

Bring on Day 2!

 

[Snoop Dog]

Bit late to the party in this thread.

Initially I was pissed with the Giants for bidding on IQ at 13 but it ticks off us making a first round pick (for future trade flex), we were justified to move our 1st out this year (as it would have been swallowed up matching this bid) and we have landed a kid that is rated top 15 with 3 junk picks past 40 (and got 64 back with points excess).

Does this mean we technically landed Beams for our 2019 first?

As for today as others have stated we have left picks 53 (233 points), 54 (220 points) and 64 (101 points) for a total of 554 points.

Adding the 197 point discount to this figure we have 751 to play which means pick 25 is the magical number we have to watch today for Kelly to get past.

We will know pretty early on though as the Crows pick at 24 (2nd pick to be made today) seems the most dangerous one that could see us go into the slightest points deficit on our 2019 2nd round pick.

Not sure WC will bid on Briggs at 23 (after bringing in Hickey and Brooksby) but that would certainly help. GWS would need to use pick 28 to match. The excess points would only net them pick 68 back (after our 3 remaining points picks).

So this would bring all of our 3 picks forward to 52 (246), 53 (233) and 63 (112) for 591 points. Adding the discount back we then have 788 points which would match a Crows bid at 24 with no deficit!

Bring on Day 2!

Spot on.

Crows will def bid on Briggs. 50/50 on Kelly. If Kelly gets past them then our 3rd pick rockets up the order.

 

[neilk]

Can I clarify WTF people were complaining about with the time taken between picks? The draft isn’t a spectacle and after the first 3-5 picks clubs can sometimes need time to assess how the draft is planning out and whether they can move up the draft to bring someone in. If it’s the difference between Mitch Thorpe and Joel Selwood let the clubs have as much time as they need. We saw four clubs take advantage of it last night and there were winners all round!

It’s only the first evolution of it, but I have to stress it isn’t an “event” for the average punter. As soon as the AFL abolishes the rookie draft and restrictions on how far ahead clubs can trade future picks we’ll start seeing more action between picks. Clubs also need to become more secretive with who they’re keen on and stop telling the kids they’ll take them with x pick that’s where the issue really lies.

I enjoyed the presentation of the draft last night and didn't feel bored at all.

 

[jackcass]

Still can come at 24 with the Crows but that’s alright.

Does it cost us a chance to match a bid on Atu if the Crows bid at 24 and force us into deficit?

 

[unplugged]

Can see it already now. Adelaide will trade a top 3 pick to GCS for one of Lukosius or Rankine next year.

 

[barrackers]

Bit late to the party in this thread.

Does this mean we technically landed Beams for our 2019 first?

Our 3rd round pick this year also went BL

As for today as others have stated we have left picks 53 (233 points), 54 (220 points) and 64 (101 points) for a total of 554 points.

Adding the 197 point discount to this figure we have 751 to play which means pick 25 is the magical number we have to watch today for Kelly to get past.

We will know pretty early on though as the Crows pick at 24 (2nd pick to be made today) seems the most dangerous one that could see us go into the slightest points deficit on our 2019 2nd round pick.

Not sure WC will bid on Briggs at 23 (after bringing in Hickey and Brooksby) but that would certainly help. GWS would need to use pick 28 to match. The excess points would only net them pick 68 back (after our 3 remaining points picks).

So this would bring all of our 3 picks forward to 52 (246), 53 (233) and 63 (112) for 591 points. Adding the discount back we then have 788 points which would match a Crows bid at 24 with no deficit!

Bring on Day 2!

Adelaide’s pick would also slide out to 25 with a matched bid

 

[Snoop Dog]

Suspect Pies might going hard at trying to trade into an earlier pick than where Kelly goes today. They could grab some one pre Kelly and then take the hit next year.

 

[The Dawes]

Suspect Pies might going hard at trying to trade into an earlier pick than where Kelly goes today. They could grab some one pre Kelly and then take the hit next year.

I like it.

 

[Crazy Tails]

Spot on.

Crows will def bid on Briggs. 50/50 on Kelly. If Kelly gets past them then our 3rd pick rockets up the order.

Cheers.

I could be wrong on the point of our late picks moving forward 1 if Giants match at bid for Briggs using 28. Only having to use 1 selection and not multiple picks probably would keep our picks at status quo. The only way we could move forward is if Giants do a pick swap of 28 for multiple later picks that nets them more residual points. Very confusing I know!

If Kelly gets past both picks then it's a moot point. Fingers crossed.

 

[Scodog10]

What I find strange is an opposition club selecting a player that they know the other club will match for an Academy or F/S. Seems a waste of time.

Can't recall where it hasn't been matched.

I understand your angle, but clubs still need to bid on players where they rate them. For instance could you imagine a scenario where Blakey, Thomas and IQ as top 15 rated talents slip through altogether. It might change once all clubs start producing top end academy prospects each draft. When that happens clubs might just nominate their academy players as pre-draft selections. I assume that’s how expanded zones would work.

 

[Crazy Tails]

Does it cost us a chance to match a bid on Atu if the Crows bid at 24 and force us into deficit?

Don't think it rules us out, as we will still have later picks, but it would cause us to go into further deficit next year if he was bid on before 56 I think.

 

[sr36]

Yep.
If Carlton perform a bit better than expected and Adelaide don't really improve much on this year then Carlton have pretty much landed themselves a first round pick for potentially very little cost.
It's no way as silly as some people are making it out to be.

If Carlton finish last and Adelaide finish top 4 then the cost will be big, but on the other hand if Carlton finish above Adelaide then they have got themselves a first round pick this year and improved there first rounder for next.

Time will tell but as much as I despise Carlton I just don't think this trade was as stupid as many are making it out to be.

Yep. There's 4 factors to consider, how good is Stocker, how good are next years first rounders likely to be, where will Carlton finish, where will Adelaide finish. If they think Stocker is worthy of a top 5 pick in next year's draft, they can't really lose on the trade, regardless of ladder positions, and if ladder positions go in their favour, they'll end up with a big win. So to me, it comes down to the rating of Stocker versus next year's top 10. I certainly wouldn't criticise the trade unless I had the knowledge to make a call on Stocker versus next year's best kids.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Suspect Pies might going hard at trying to trade into an earlier pick than where Kelly goes today. They could grab some one pre Kelly and then take the hit next year.

Thanks Snoop.

What does this look like?

And who are we potentially looking at then?