List Mgmt. 2018 Draft thread.

[BringouttheGimp]

Regarding the Pies first pick. The two names I have circled around where Collingwood may be picking are Riley Collier-Dawkins and Curtis Taylor. They both have star potential and can be your Marcus Bontempelli/Robbie Gray equivalents.

If you want to dream, Jack Lukosius I've been very open about being the best prospect I've ever seen. I bring him up in this weeks weekly wrap (see signature). Otherwise if you want to read about Collier-Dawkins and Taylor, you can find the links on page one in my Draft Almanac thread.

For a lesser known. One that got me excited this weekend is Thomas Sparrow who I give a fair writeup to in this weeks weekly wrap. Has that hint of Dangerfield, reminding me a bit of Ben Ronke as a junior.

Where do you get all your info.. do you go out and watch these blokes play.. or have other sources?

 

[loki04]

KM - can you tell us your thoughts on how tall fwds can be “truly” assesed given the modified rules in the TAC comp.

Can we really expect Lukosius and the Kings to dominate in the real game when they have been “cuddled” by the modified rules.
McCartin is a clear example of what I fear - a superstar at TAC level that seems unlikely to reach his expected potential in the AFL.
I’m starting to think talls who excel in other parts of the ground other than the fwd line, may offer far better exposed form in deciding whether they’ll make it in the AFL.

imo I think of the 3 Lukosius is the least Id worry about given his good SANFL form, you may have valid concerns with Max King but not so much with Ben King who has solid grounding as a KPD as well as KPF (less risk of failure given defensive role standard is elite too).

 

[Chrispiesssss]

Where do you get all your info.. do you go out and watch these blokes play.. or have other sources?

He’s literally a scout. Google “Knightmate ESPN”. The blokes famous, and best bit about him is that he’s a Pie!

 

[Knightmare]

KM - can you tell us your thoughts on how tall fwds can be “truly” assesed given the modified rules in the TAC comp.

Can we really expect Lukosius and the Kings to dominate in the real game when they have been “cuddled” by the modified rules.
McCartin is a clear example of what I fear - a superstar at TAC level that seems unlikely to reach his expected potential in the AFL.
I’m starting to think talls who excel in other parts of the ground other than the fwd line, may offer far better exposed form in deciding whether they’ll make it in the AFL.

As others have said, Lukosius has been playing SANFL League football. On debut as I mention in my wrap (see signature) he kicked four goals on SANFL League debut in a final.

The SANFL is a stronger competition than the VFL, to give some perspective and only behind the WAFL at the moment on quality.

I have different methods in identifying key forwards, and I find with Victorian key forwards I consistently rate them a lot lower than AFL clubs.
Just taking 2015. Schache goes pick 2, I rated him at 7. Sam Weideman I rated at 24 (went pick 9). Harry and Ben McKay go 10 and 21 respectively (I rate them 26 and 33).

Go back a year further and McCartin goes pick 1, I have him at 5.

So I agree with the concept that the Victorian KPPs are often overrated but at the same time, I'm not caught up in the way the TAC Cup rules are set up, as I have enough of a feel from following the draft for long enough what numbers in each competition roughly translate to in the next.

My methodology for picking key forwards is simple and one I've been preaching for probably the last 5+ years on here.

There are three boxes to tick.
Production
Points of difference
Rate of improvement

Rate the key forward in each box either a 0, 0.5 or 1 based on how you rate them.

eg.
Jack Lukosius
Production 1 (He's getting it done in the SANFL, racked up 17 disposals, 14 marks and kicked 4 goals in SA's trial v WA. Not much more he could be doing)
Points of difference 1 (On an elite level - endurance/speed, kicking/vision/decision making) *One point of difference = 0.5. Two = 1.
Rate of improvement 1 (Difficult to quantify as Lukosius only played the one SANFL League game last year but has made the step up from playing U18s/Reserves last year to League and has handled the step up. Numbers through u18 champs will determine whether it's an 0.5 or 1 in this category).

For perspective. Anyone getting 2.5 or better as a total /3. They're projecting to become elite key forwards.

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you get all your info.. do you go out and watch these blokes play.. or have other sources?

I've rocked up at TAC Cup and U18 games most weeks for the past 10 years and have been posting on here throughout that time on the phantom draft board.

I'm ESPN's AFL Draft guy.

I just have fun talking footy, and talking the draft, so I respond to peoples AFL Draft questions in my draft thread:
AFL Draft Thread 2018: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2018-afl-draft-almanac.1188131/

You can see links to all my weekly pieces, monthly power rankings among other content on there. Ask me draft questions/list management questions or whatever. It's what I've always done and it's a bit of fun for me.

I also pop up on the Collingwood board here/there as I find an interesting topic/get tagged on here.

 

[No SPIN]

As others have said, Lukosius has been playing SANFL League football. On debut as I mention in my wrap (see signature) he kicked four goals on SANFL League debut in a final.

The SANFL is a stronger competition than the VFL, to give some perspective and only behind the WAFL at the moment on quality.

I have different methods in identifying key forwards, and I find with Victorian key forwards I consistently rate them a lot lower than AFL clubs.
Just taking 2015. Schache goes pick 2, I rated him at 7. Sam Weideman I rated at 24 (went pick 9). Harry and Ben McKay go 10 and 21 respectively (I rate them 26 and 33).

Go back a year further and McCartin goes pick 1, I have him at 5.

So I agree with the concept that the Victorian KPPs are often overrated but at the same time, I'm not caught up in the way the TAC Cup rules are set up, as I have enough of a feel from following the draft for long enough what numbers in each competition roughly translate to in the next.

My methodology for picking key forwards is simple and one I've been preaching for probably the last 5+ years on here.

There are three boxes to tick.
Production
Points of difference
Rate of improvement

Rate the key forward in each box either a 0, 0.5 or 1 based on how you rate them.

eg.
Jack Lukosius
Production 1 (He's getting it done in the SANFL, racked up 17 disposals, 14 marks and kicked 4 goals in SA's trial v WA. Not much more he could be doing)
Points of difference 1 (On an elite level - endurance/speed, kicking/vision/decision making) *One point of difference = 0.5. Two = 1.
Rate of improvement 1 (Difficult to quantify as Lukosius only played the one SANFL League game last year but has made the step up from playing U18s/Reserves last year to League and has handled the step up. Numbers through u18 champs will determine whether it's an 0.5 or 1 in this category).

For perspective. Anyone getting 2.5 or better as a total /3. They're projecting to become elite key forwards.

Thanks KM for the detailed and insightful response.

 

[unplugged]

A bit off topic given that he was in last year's crop, but is anyone across how Sutherland's cricket career is going? And if it doesn't turn out, which year would we be able to sign him as a Cat B or whatever category it is?

 

[jdpie]

Realistically GC finish bottom 3 would Gold Coast let him walk for a pick passed on by the AFL or do an Adelaide and make a club pay like Danger.

Lynch FA
Sloane FA

Elliot full season fit

Trade Moore, Fasolo and go into 2019 draft with 2 late first round picks dead set lock us in to win it all and you'll never hear me say something like that again.

BEEG sounds more and more like Moore is gone. I think we will be making a play to get 1 if not 2 additional 1st round picks. The Lynch noise is typically loud. Of greater interest could be the rough diamonds we have in the NGA and Father Son. Obviously everyone knows Quaynor and Will Kelly (194cm) has been on a solid improvement rate. Watch out for Bailey Wraith however. At 194, very agile and was in the frame for Vic Metro he could be a big free hit to us as a late rookie pick via NGA. He is monstering kids in the APS. This could be a year where we improve on ground and get a bounty in the draft.

 

[CFC2010]

A bit off topic given that he was in last year's crop, but is anyone across how Sutherland's cricket career is going? And if it doesn't turn out, which year would we be able to sign him as a Cat B or whatever category it is?

Currently doing a sandpaper apprenticeship

 

[Soups]

A bit off topic given that he was in last year's crop, but is anyone across how Sutherland's cricket career is going? And if it doesn't turn out, which year would we be able to sign him as a Cat B or whatever category it is?

Signed a contract extension with the Renegades. But he hasn’t cracked the big time yet. I think it will be a couple of years before we know. VIC might go for some youth this year so he might get a gig.

 

[good4footy]

Signed a contract extension with the Renegades. But he hasn’t cracked the big time yet. I think it will be a couple of years before we know. VIC might go for some youth this year so he might get a gig.

He is going to be a gun cricketer. Plays at Prahran where my daughter plays. Both he and his sister, who also plays at Prahran, will both play for Australia in at least one form of the game.

He was picked in the U18 Aussie side recently and his sister Annabel was given a Vic contract this year at the age of 16/17.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

A bit off topic given that he was in last year's crop, but is anyone across how Sutherland's cricket career is going? And if it doesn't turn out, which year would we be able to sign him as a Cat B or whatever category it is?

Cat Bs are three years no footy. So end of 2020 for 2021 start

 

[Soups]

He is going to be a gun cricketer. Plays at Prahran where my daughter plays. Both he and his sister, who also plays at Prahran, will both play for Australia in at least one form of the game.

He was picked in the U18 Aussie side recently and his sister Annabel was given a Vic contract this year at the age of 16/17.

I rated him as a cricketer. Was one of the better guys in the U19 World Cup. He’ll get his chance.

As a footballer he could have been anything. Good size, good mover and had good skills for a big man. Also loved his aggression. If for some reason he doesn’t make it on the cricket stage I hope we are in his ear big time.

 

[unplugged]

Cat Bs are three years no footy. So end of 2020 for 2021 start

Hopefully Murphy's keeping in touch with him just in case!

 

[whiskeytown]

Very early... but what's peoples top 5 dream players that they'd like the pies to take with their 1st round pick? I haven't seen much footage of all, but I'm going:

1. Lukosius
2. Rankine
3. B King
4. M King
5. C Taylor

All KPP or silky half forward types, which is where I think our major needs lie

 

[Knightmare]

Have my June power rankings up now on ESPN.

A possible draft board you take with you into the draft.

*See signature

Of those who could be available Rankine, Collier-Dawkins and C.Taylor interest me most at this point *noting that the King's aren't likely to be available.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Very early... but what's peoples top 5 dream players that they'd like the pies to take with their 1st round pick? I haven't seen much footage of all, but I'm going:

1. Lukosius
2. Rankine
3. B King
4. M King
5. C Taylor

All KPP or silky half forward types, which is where I think our major needs lie

1. Jack Lukosius
2. Jack Lukosius
   
3. Jack Lukosius
   
4. Jack Lukosius
   
5. Jack Lukosius

 

[Soups]

For those who want to have a peek at today’s game. Allies V Vic Country.

 

[Soups]

Dylan O’Reilly had a good game for WA. Tall forward that can go in the ruck. Kicked 3 goals. One to watch for our pick imo.

 

[unplugged]

Did Vic Metro (Quaynor) play in Perth today? Pie 4 Life

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Did Vic Metro (Quaynor) play in Perth today? Pie 4 Life

He was named in the bests, so he did a pretty good job if he was sitting in the stands

 

[unplugged]

He was named in the bests, so he did a pretty good job if he was sitting in the stands

Haha I asked that without doing any research whatsoever. Just found this...

 

[TradeDraft]

If we don’t get Lynch, I hope we get a top 3 draft pick. If we don’t get Lukosius or the King Brothers, I would like Ian Hill.
He has x-factor all over him. We probably wouldn’t need to trade up. I think he might slide to 10-15 just because of his light frame. #Knightmare would probably have a better idea.

Worry Hill's go Home Factor

 

[Matt_352]

Haha I asked that without doing any research whatsoever. Just found this...

Kelly quiet

 

[TradeDraft]

Regarding the Pies first pick. The two names I have circled around where Collingwood may be picking are Riley Collier-Dawkins and Curtis Taylor. They both have star potential and can be your Marcus Bontempelli/Robbie Gray equivalents.

If you want to dream, Jack Lukosius I've been very open about being the best prospect I've ever seen. I bring him up in this weeks weekly wrap (see signature). Otherwise if you want to read about Collier-Dawkins and Taylor, you can find the links on page one in my Draft Almanac thread.

For a lesser known. One that got me excited this weekend is Thomas Sparrow who I give a fair writeup to in this weeks weekly wrap. Has that hint of Dangerfield, reminding me a bit of Ben Ronke as a junior.

Bit Hard to Know who we might Pick when got little Idea What Picks we will have