2018 Draft thread

[BuntonRules]

Demons. Tyson/Salem vs Kelly. No trading first pick.

 

[KissKiss]

Demons. Tyson/Salem vs Kelly. No trading first pick.

Taranto vs McCluggage/Berry???

 

[BuntonRules]

Taranto vs McCluggage/Berry???

We only dropped 1 spot, and still knew we would get the player we wanted. Totally different scenario.

 

[luthor]

There appears to be this consensus anti-King Twins sentiment going on around here and I'm not entirely sure why.

I haven't seen a lot of either of them but what I saw of Ben in the SA v Vic Metro Final really impressed me. Must have impressed the SA Coach as well because when VM launched their comeback after half time, that SA Coach was sufficiently concerned about the influence of Ben King to send Lukosious back to Fullback to try to curb his impact on the scoreboard.

And apparantly the (injured) Max King is even better than Ben.

Now I know that forming opinions on a small sample size is fraught but I'm still scratching my head a bit at this "Oh God, let's hope that some other club(s) is (are) stupid enough to take a King twin so we can get a much better player" attitude .

Maybe it's something to do with percieved flight risk.

Similar concerns were being expressed about Cam Rayner before the 2017 ND if I remember correctly.

I'm not actively advocating for the selection of a King twin but I am advocating keeping an open mind.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Think it's more that we are okay for KPP and class mids are a more pressing need. And we have more in the academy pipeline. Tozer et al

Demons. Tyson/Salem vs Kelly. No trading first pick.

Agreed we keep the high draft pick. Need to add another blue chip mid while we can.

 

[13Beast]

If that's the case, the AFL must investigate and if it is found the King's or their family or representatives have made such statements, they should be barred from entering the draft for 2 years.

The drafts are diluted enough without this sort of crap from petulant draftees, so it is high time something is done and the AFL makes an example of someone to preserve a modicum of integrity, which I know is asking a lot given it is the AFL and all.

Oh no, heaven forbid, the AFLPA would never allow that

 

[13Beast]

I can actually see him as the back line General. Taking over from Hodgey in a couple of years.
Him and Harris as the leaders of the backline for years to come.

I agree. He is developing into quite potentially one of the best halfbacks in the competition. Why move him into the midfield unless we have someone extremely skilled to fill that void

 

[LionCub29]

If during the trade period Carlton maintain they are going to take Lukosius and it becomes apparent we will be able to get Rankine, I expect we will get a godfather offer from one of the Adelaide teams (quite likely Adelaide with all its retention problems). It would be better getting a deal during the trade period involving a mix of players/picks than during any live trading, as the AFL won’t wear a heavily one-sided pick trade. Once a player is involved virtually any deal can go through (read Weller for pick 2). Don’t be surprised if a player like Mayes ends up as part of the deal. I expect the idea of trading our first pick will remain live during the trade period.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Taranto vs McCluggage/Berry???

That trade needs to be viewed more as outliner IMO, so many things lined up for us. The pick itself was expendable to GWS having Setterfield, they still got good value from the pick via the lower picks we gave back. Any potential deal with Adelaide wont see them getting that type of value on the back end.

At the time GWS was really hot on McGrath, if Essendon went with McCluggage (unknown at the time) they didn't want him to have to pass another club.

The potential picks Adelaide will have won't see us having access to someone rated the same as McCluggage. As discussed earlier there seems to be a talent drop after Lukosious, Walsh, Smith and Rankine, with the King Twins being an unknown.

Maybe a hypotheticals like
Mccluggage vs Brodie and Simpkin
Would be more reflective of what we'd be looking at.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

There appears to be this consensus anti-King Twins sentiment going on around here and I'm not entirely sure why.

I think some people perhaps have classified the King twins alongside the key forward high draft picks of previous years who haven't lived up to expectations.

I think that's a bit unfair, and that like everything it has to be taken on a case by case basis. Conole and his team have proven themselves as very good talent assessors in recent years, and if they see one of the Kings as the best available at our pick I think they've earned enough credibility to back them in.

 

[KissKiss]

That trade needs to be viewed more as outliner IMO, so many things lined up for us. The pick itself was expendable to GWS having Setterfield, they still got good value from the pick via the lower picks we gave back. Any potential deal with Adelaide wont see them getting that type of value on the back end.

At the time GWS was really hot on McGrath, if Essendon went with McCluggage (unknown at the time) they didn't want him to have to pass another club.

The potential picks Adelaide will have won't see us having access to someone rated the same as McCluggage. As discussed earlier there seems to be a talent drop after Lukosious, Walsh, Smith and Rankine, with the King Twins being an unknown.

Maybe a hypotheticals like
Mccluggage vs Brodie and Simpkin
Would be more reflective of what we'd be looking at.

Oh I mostly agree but its a bit of a never say never. We might just get an amazing offer that is too hard to turn down

 

[Nunez]

I think some people perhaps have classified the King twins alongside the key forward high draft picks of previous years who haven't lived up to expectations.

I think that's a bit unfair, and that like everything it has to be taken on a case by case basis. Conole and his team have proven themselves as very good talent assessors in recent years, and if they see one of the Kings as the best available at our pick I think they've earned enough credibility to back them in.

Spot on. Conole and his team won't take a kid unless if they're relatively sure they're the right choice. If that means turning pick 3/4 into Adelaide's first round picks then I'll back them in.

 

[briztoon]

There appears to be this consensus anti-King Twins sentiment going on around here and I'm not entirely sure why.

I haven't seen a lot of either of them but what I saw of Ben in the SA v Vic Metro Final really impressed me. Must have impressed the SA Coach as well because when VM launched their comeback after half time, that SA Coach was sufficiently concerned about the influence of Ben King to send Lukosious back to Fullback to try to curb his impact on the scoreboard.

And apparantly the (injured) Max King is even better than Ben.

Now I know that forming opinions on a small sample size is fraught but I'm still scratching my head a bit at this "Oh God, let's hope that some other club(s) is (are) stupid enough to take a King twin so we can get a much better player" attitude .

Maybe it's something to do with percieved flight risk.

Similar concerns were being expressed about Cam Rayner before the 2017 ND if I remember correctly.

I'm not actively advocating for the selection of a King twin but I am advocating keeping an open mind.

From my perspective, it's more that I think we're set for that type of young potential KPF, with McStay, Ballenden and Fullarton.

I do view Lukosius as a different type of forward from the Kings and believe Lukosius would work much better with Hipwood and McStay, as he can play up on a wing and I genuinely would like to see a forward line with Hipwood and Lukosius, with both pushing up on opposite wings, pulling their defenders out of the forward line, and our mid/forwards flooding forward.

 

[jackess]

The little bit I saw of Ben King at the championships he looked extremely average.

I've been put right off 2m tall forwards though. Similar to rucks they're too much of a risk to take early in the draft.

 

[Nunez]

From my perspective, it's more that I think we're set for that type of young potential KPF, with McStay, Ballenden and Fullarton.

I do view Lukosius as a different type of forward from the Kings and believe Lukosius would work much better with Hipwood and McStay, as he can play up on a wing and I genuinely would like to see a forward line with Hipwood and Lukosius, with both pushing up on opposite wings, pulling their defenders out of the forward line, and our mid/forwards flooding forward.

The more I watch Lukocius the more I see him as a prototype AFL wingman who can drift forward and back. Will be a gun.

 

[dmac_55]

People are saying that Luko Walsh Rankine and Smith are the clear top 4 prospects.. I would bet quite a significant amount of money that these aren’t the 4 best players in the draft once all is said and done..

Recruiting also has some luck involved and I believe if we can get 2 top 11 picks (or so) we would maximise our chances. You have to back in the scouting department to find the players with the assets available.. We could get a player we rate in the same tier as those players as well as getting extra bites of the apple.. A godfather offer would be required obviously as the Crows would have to pay Overs to secure the local prospect..

Clayton Oliver wasn’t considered this highly ranked and didn’t even make his state team and has turned out to be an elite piece of recruiting..

 

[jackess]

People are saying that Luko Walsh Rankine and Smith are the clear top 4 prospects.. I would bet quite a significant amount of money that these aren’t the 4 best players in the draft once all is said and done..

Recruiting also has some luck involved and I believe if we can get 2 top 11 picks (or so) we would maximise our chances. You have to back in the scouting department to find the players with the assets available.. We could get a player we rate in the same tier as those players as well as getting extra bites of the apple.. A godfather offer would be required obviously as the Crows would have to pay Overs to secure the local prospect..

Clayton Oliver wasn’t considered this highly ranked and didn’t even make his state team and has turned out to be an elite piece of recruiting..

Yep let's not have an opinion at all because not even the recruiters get it 100% right.

All we can do is work off assumptions and come up with what we think is the best strategy.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Crows will likely have to deal with the suns or us - pick 1 hasn't been traded out since 2001. Think Freo traded it out and missed out on Hodge/Judd. Blues will be terrified of not taking Lukosius who then becomes a super star. Pick 2 is traded much more often

 

[Dylan12]

Crows will likely have to deal with the suns or us - pick 1 hasn't been traded out since 2001. Think Freo traded it out and missed out on Hodge/Judd. Blues will be terrified of not taking Lukosius who then becomes a super star. Pick 2 is traded much more often

Yep, they traded it in exchange for Trent Croad and possibly a later pick too. Croad end up leaving Freo a few years later retuning back to Hawthorn.

 

[dmac_55]

Yep let's not have an opinion at all because not even the recruiters get it 100% right.

All we can do is work off assumptions and come up with what we think is the best strategy.

We can form opinions of the trade far easily.. Supportersnsaying that we must hold our first pick would they hold firm in their opinion if we got a godfather offer of 4 first round picks to move back a few spots? Would be a ludicrous decision to turn something like that down.

We should hold a ransom on our pick and if our requirements aren’t met for the trade then we can take the best player available.. Would be poor management IMO if our administration didn’t go down that path.

 

[TheHairyGamer]

Crows will likely have to deal with the suns or us - pick 1 hasn't been traded out since 2001. Think Freo traded it out and missed out on Hodge/Judd. Blues will be terrified of not taking Lukosius who then becomes a super star. Pick 2 is traded much more often

The only way they trade pick 1 (in my eyes) is if they get at least 2 first round picks and a star player already. Adelaide have the picks, they would need a high profile player to go to Carlton though to get pick 1.

 

[briztoon]

People are saying that Luko Walsh Rankine and Smith are the clear top 4 prospects.. I would bet quite a significant amount of money that these aren’t the 4 best players in the draft once all is said and done..

Recruiting also has some luck involved and I believe if we can get 2 top 11 picks (or so) we would maximise our chances. You have to back in the scouting department to find the players with the assets available.. We could get a player we rate in the same tier as those players as well as getting extra bites of the apple.. A godfather offer would be required obviously as the Crows would have to pay Overs to secure the local prospect..

Clayton Oliver wasn’t considered this highly ranked and didn’t even make his state team and has turned out to be an elite piece of recruiting..

Oliver went pick 4, think he was rated highly enough.

When supporters here talk about Lukosius, Rankine, Smith and Walsh, we're looking at the prospects who we believe suit the Lions needs. Same reason why we don't discuss Tarryn Thomas and Nick Blakey, because they are tied to other clubs and we have no chance of drafting them.

Out of curiosity, who do currently rate as the top talents in the draft? Who is your bolter to climb in to top 5 discussions?
If you look at Twomey's top 8 from his phantom form guide, all 8 have appeared in top 5 discussions by recruiters and draft watchers.


If a player like Rozee or Hately climbs in top 5 discussion, fair enough, we have seen something similar in recent drafts. But at this stage, those players aren't in such discussions, at least not amongst the amateur or media draft watchers, so we can only focus on the names that are in such discussions currently.


I've talked about acquiring an extra first round draft pick, but what are we giving up? Noble has said the club is against trading out a future first round pick. If you look at each teams picks in this years draft, we are the only team that didn't trade out a future pick last year.

I've discussed trading back with a team like Adelaide. I can't see them offering a godfather offer for a pick that's not top 2. Nor do I believe they offer up their first 2 picks for a pick in the 3 to 5 range, unless they climb the ladder and make the 8, and both their's and Melbourne's pick end up being in the 11 to 15 range, and they believe they'll miss out on both Rozee and Hately before their picks roll around.

Would you really trade pick 4 for picks 11 and 13?

 

[jackess]

We can form opinions of the trade far easily.. Supportersnsaying that we must hold our first pick would they hold firm in their opinion if we got a godfather offer of 4 first round picks to move back a few spots? Would be a ludicrous decision to turn something like that down.

We should hold a ransom on our pick and if our requirements aren’t met for the trade then we can take the best player available.. Would be poor management IMO if our administration didn’t go down that path.

Who's saying we'd turn down 4 first rounders?

I probably would if it was 2 pick 17s and 2 pick 18s

 

[briztoon]

Crows will likely have to deal with the suns or us - pick 1 hasn't been traded out since 2001. Think Freo traded it out and missed out on Hodge/Judd. Blues will be terrified of not taking Lukosius who then becomes a super star. Pick 2 is traded much more often

I'm not so sure on this. There's been a fair amount of discussion that not all recruiters view Lukosius as the best prospect in the draft, and the Blues desperately need midfield talent.

 

[a mayes ing]

I'm not so sure on this. There's been a fair amount of discussion that not all recruiters view Lukosius as the best prospect in the draft, and the Blues desperately need midfield talent.

I am not too sure either with Lukosious. I admit l havent watched much of him but he doesn't seem to get a huge amount of goals. The fact he can go on the wing and in defence is good but do clubs want to spend pick 1/2 on a tall winger? The Kings can get a huge amount of goals in a game, iirc 8/9 in 1 game alone