2018 Draft thread

[blynd_freddie]

Who's saying we'd turn down 4 first rounders?

I probably would if it was 2 pick 17s and 2 pick 18s

Are suggesting the four picks are 17+18 in this years draft and 17+18 in the following year?

I'd be happy if the four picks were say 15 to 18 this year reflecting on the level of guys drafted there over the last three years.

pick# --- 2015---------- 2016---------- 2017
15 --- Daniel Rioli -- Jordan Gallucci -- Zac Bailey
16 --- H.Himmelberg - Todd Marshall -- Ed Richards
17 --- Tom Doedee -- Jarrod Berry -- Jack Higgins
18 --- Jade Gresham - Powell-Pepper -- Brandon Starcevich

 

[briztoon]

I am not too sure either with Lukosious. I admit l havent watched much of him but he doesn't seem to get a huge amount of goals. The fact he can go on the wing and in defence is good but do clubs want to spend pick 1/2 on a tall winger? The Kings can get a huge amount of goals in a game, iirc 8/9 in 1 game alone

My concern with the Kings, and it's been noted on the draft boards, this year is looking like a particularly weak year for tall defenders in the TAC cup and private school footy. It appears there is literally no one of sufficient quality to play on them.

Even once physically developed, this won't be the case at AFL level. They'll be facing tall defenders each game, and they won't always be more physically or athletically gifted than their opponent.

 

[jackess]

Are suggesting the four picks are 17+18 in this years draft and 17+18 in the following year?

I'd be happy if the four picks were say 15 to 18 this year reflecting on the level of guys drafted there over the last three years.

pick# --- 2015---------- 2016---------- 2017
15 --- Daniel Rioli -- Jordan Gallucci -- Zac Bailey
16 --- H.Himmelberg - Todd Marshall -- Ed Richards
17 --- Tom Doedee -- Jarrod Berry -- Jack Higgins
18 --- Jade Gresham - Powell-Pepper -- Brandon Starcevich

Yes before priority picks and academy bids.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Are suggesting the four picks are 17+18 in this years draft and 17+18 in the following year?

I'd be happy if the four picks were say 15 to 18 this year reflecting on the level of guys drafted there over the last three years.

pick# --- 2015---------- 2016---------- 2017
15 --- Daniel Rioli -- Jordan Gallucci -- Zac Bailey
16 --- H.Himmelberg - Todd Marshall -- Ed Richards
17 --- Tom Doedee -- Jarrod Berry -- Jack Higgins
18 --- Jade Gresham - Powell-Pepper -- Brandon Starcevich

So the question in that scenario is do you prefer Rayner or Zac/Ed/Jack/Brandon? Think I'd prefer Rayner.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

The Clayton Oliver example is thrown up a lot to illustrate that kids can fly under the radar but really he is the very rare exception. Most kids are known entities to clubs at least from the outset of their top age season even though still developing/improving. He was not only injured at the start of his draft season but also had changed clubs from Pioneers to Bushies and really showed nothing for the first half of the year as he adjusted to the new team and grew his fitness. He won the Morrish medal with 15 votes, but only one of those came in the first 9 rounds. I watched most of the Bushrangers Melbourne games that year and knew most of their players but when this red head started getting possessions and goals in the second half of the year I had to look up who he was. He was definitely rated after that, even though he hadn't played rep footy. But I'd say if you asked clubs mid-year in his draft year how they rated Oliver not many would have had him in their top 30.

 

[blynd_freddie]

So the question in that scenario is do you prefer Rayner or Zac/Ed/Jack/Brandon? Think I'd prefer Rayner.

Rayner was pick #1, I read it as pick#4?

2017 - Luke Davies-Uniacke
2016 - Ben Ainsworth
2015 - Clayton Oliver

 

[bungalow_bill]

Rayner was pick #1, I read it as pick#4?

2017 - Luke Davies-Uniacke
2016 - Ben Ainsworth
2015 - Clayton Oliver

Well that makes a difference. Oliver would be the only one you'd think may be worth it.

 

[blynd_freddie]

The Clayton Oliver example is thrown up a lot to illustrate that kids can fly under the radar but really he is the very rare exception. Most kids are known entities to clubs at least from the outset of their top age season even though still developing/improving. He was not only injured at the start of his draft season but also had changed clubs from Pioneers to Bushies and really showed nothing for the first half of the year as he adjusted to the new team and grew his fitness. He won the Morrish medal with 15 votes, but only one of those came in the first 9 rounds. I watched most of the Bushrangers Melbourne games that year and knew most of their players but when this red head started getting possessions and goals in the second half of the year I had to look up who he was. He was definitely rated after that, even though he hadn't played rep footy. But I'd say if you asked clubs mid-year in his draft year how they rated Oliver not many would have had him in their top 30.

Yeah, Oliver looked 'billy-bunter-esque' in has draft year... an amazing transformation since!

 

[irel]

Would you really trade pick 4 for picks 11 and 13?

If Walsh, Rankine and Lukosius are gone that is a resounding YES, absolutely 100% I would.

 

[David C]

Forgive my ignorance, but if we end up with pick 2 and Carlton select Walsh with 1, can the crows make a deal with us on the actual night of the draft to get Luko either before or after we pick him? (If we did indeed select him) Still getting my head around how the live draft will work. Cheers

Can't trade after Brisbane selects him, must be before.

 

[Nunez]

If we do trade back to multiple picks, we can rest assured Conole, Noble etc wouldn't be doing so unless they're absolutely sure of the quality they'd expect to have around those picks.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

If we do trade back to multiple picks, we can rest assured Conole, Noble etc wouldn't be doing so unless they're absolutely sure of the quality they'd expect to have around those picks.

As far as you can be in the lottery that is the National Draft.

 

[dmac_55]

Oliver went pick 4, think he was rated highly enough.

When supporters here talk about Lukosius, Rankine, Smith and Walsh, we're looking at the prospects who we believe suit the Lions needs. Same reason why we don't discuss Tarryn Thomas and Nick Blakey, because they are tied to other clubs and we have no chance of drafting them.

Out of curiosity, who do currently rate as the top talents in the draft? Who is your bolter to climb in to top 5 discussions?
If you look at Twomey's top 8 from his phantom form guide, all 8 have appeared in top 5 discussions by recruiters and draft watchers.


If a player like Rozee or Hately climbs in top 5 discussion, fair enough, we have seen something similar in recent drafts. But at this stage, those players aren't in such discussions, at least not amongst the amateur or media draft watchers, so we can only focus on the names that are in such discussions currently.


I've talked about acquiring an extra first round draft pick, but what are we giving up? Noble has said the club is against trading out a future first round pick. If you look at each teams picks in this years draft, we are the only team that didn't trade out a future pick last year.

I've discussed trading back with a team like Adelaide. I can't see them offering a godfather offer for a pick that's not top 2. Nor do I believe they offer up their first 2 picks for a pick in the 3 to 5 range, unless they climb the ladder and make the 8, and both their's and Melbourne's pick end up being in the 11 to 15 range, and they believe they'll miss out on both Rozee and Hately before their picks roll around.

Would you really trade pick 4 for picks 11 and 13?

Oliver at the end of July his draft year was not rated as a top 4 pick. He was a clear late bolter and got buzz as the media learnt of Melbourne’s interest In him during draft week. You are saying there is a clear top 4 players at the end of July but things can change dramatically between now and draft day.

Twomey loved Darcy Parish, who was highly rated by experts and hasn’t really shown to be the level of talent once in the AFL system.. Every single arm chair expert makes incorrect calls every year and that’s the variability with the draft in any sport..

If we rated someone in our top 5-6 players in the draft and had confidence that they could fall to around the pick 11 mark then no doubt in my mind I would do a pick #4 for picks #11 and #13. Crows may love Rankine and he is available at our pick and we trade down and get a guy we like just as much plus an extra first.. It is a no brainer. That is asset management by the team to maximise our chances at improving our team..

Unfortunately I haven’t watched enough footage of the draftees to form an opinion on who I like as a bolter etc. I am confident tho that you shop for the best offer and if you can get another Taranto for berry/Mcluggage type deal that would be incredible for the sides fortunes.

 

[POBT]

If we rated someone in our top 5-6 players in the draft and had confidence that they could fall to around the pick 11 mark then no doubt in my mind I would do a pick #4 for picks #11 and #13.

Exactly. It all depends on the club’s draft board. If we can get one of our preferred players and another decent pick, why wouldn’t we do the trade. The absolute “we will” or “we won’t” statements are ridiculous.

 

[Jirik13]

If Walsh, Rankine and Lukosius are gone that is a resounding YES, absolutely 100% I would.

Not interested in Smith? Some experts have him as good as Walsh.

 

[cotter101]

If Walsh, Rankine and Lukosius are gone that is a resounding YES, absolutely 100% I would.

I’d take Smith personally.

 

[a mayes ing]

Exactly. It all depends on the club’s draft board. If we can get one of our preferred players and another decent pick, why wouldn’t we do the trade. The absolute “we will” or “we won’t” statements are ridiculous.

Our preferred players would be Walsh, Rankine, Lukocious and Smith most likely. Then there is bunch of players underneath that. If we get those 2 lower picks, then we aren't going to get those 1st few ones.

 

[irel]

Our preferred players would be Walsh, Rankine, Lukocious and Smith most likely. Then there is bunch of players underneath that. If we get those 2 lower picks, then we aren't going to get those 1st few ones.

How do you know this?

 

[M Malice]

I think where the King twins are taken will shape the top 10 on draft night. IMO there will be a lot of frantic attempts to trade picks on draft night.

 

[a mayes ing]

How do you know this?

Well they are the draftwatcher's general top 4/5 consensus. Seems to be a drop off after that. Can't imagine we would prefer someone lower rated than those guys, especialy since they would all be good for us

 

[briztoon]

Oliver at the end of July his draft year was not rated as a top 4 pick. He was a clear late bolter and got buzz as the media learnt of Melbourne’s interest In him during draft week. You are saying there is a clear top 4 players at the end of July but things can change dramatically between now and draft day.

Twomey loved Darcy Parish, who was highly rated by experts and hasn’t really shown to be the level of talent once in the AFL system.. Every single arm chair expert makes incorrect calls every year and that’s the variability with the draft in any sport..

If we rated someone in our top 5-6 players in the draft and had confidence that they could fall to around the pick 11 mark then no doubt in my mind I would do a pick #4 for picks #11 and #13. Crows may love Rankine and he is available at our pick and we trade down and get a guy we like just as much plus an extra first.. It is a no brainer. That is asset management by the team to maximise our chances at improving our team..

Unfortunately I haven’t watched enough footage of the draftees to form an opinion on who I like as a bolter etc. I am confident tho that you shop for the best offer and if you can get another Taranto for berry/Mcluggage type deal that would be incredible for the sides fortunes.

As it's only the end of July, we can only discuss the players in the mix currently. By the end of the season there is every possibility that one or more kids may have entered the discussion. But until they do, and until it's mid November, we can only discuss the players in the mix now.


I've argued both sides of the discussion. So I'm not for or against either option. I just like offering a counter point to balance any discussion.

If we have pick 4, you have to ask the question are the guys we rate at 5 & 6 as talented as guy we rate a 4, and is the down grade worth it, and why would one of them potentially be available at pick 11. Why is every other club before pick 11 passing on him?

If Rankine is the player available at 4, I would seriously discuss the option of trading the pick, and everyone knows I'm a huge Rankine fan. But as mentioned earlier, I don't believe we get the same offer from Adelaide for pick 4 compared to what they might offer for pick 1. As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't believe Adelaide will put pick 11 and 13 on the table for pick 4. More likely pick 11 and 19.

As I mentioned early, I've discussed trading from pick 4 to two picks in the 11 to 15 range, but that was always on the proviso that we knew we were trading out of the top tier of talent for two shots at the second tier of talent. But it had an asterix that Rankine was the kid left at 4 and he had a big red go home flag next to his name, if it was Smith or Walsh or Lukosius at pick 4, I draft the kid and skip off in to the sunset. Because I do rate the top 4 so much ahead of the kids mentioned in the 11 to 15 range. And I don't see a kid we rate as the 5th or 6th best talent in the draft slipping to pick 11, unless there's a bunch Jaidyn Stephenson's and Ed Richards in this draft.

I wonder if Berry had not of worked out so far, if he had struggled at AFL level or had a career mirroring Daniel Venables, who was drafted at pick 13 in the same draft, would people be so keen to make a similar trade.

Just because it worked once, doesn't mean it will work again. And as others have mentioned, there were a bunch of exceptional circumstances that resulted in our pick trade and then having both McCluggage and Berry fall to our picks.


Yeah, Twomey has his man crush player every year. It was Jack Higgins last year. It appears to be Walsh this year.

 

[briztoon]

How do you know this?

Now I'm not saying it's a definite, and he's not throwing some misdirection out there, but Conole did say yesterday, we are most likely to draft best player available our first pick regardless of position, and then reeled off the names Lukosius, Rankine and Walsh as the kids generally viewed as the top kids in the draft.

I am surprised he didn't mention one or both of the Kings.

I don't believe it's a stretch to add Smith in to the discussion, as he's widely viewed as the next best pure mid after Walsh.

 

[briztoon]

Well they are the draftwatcher's general top 4/5 consensus. Seems to be a drop off after that. Can't imagine we would prefer someone lower rated than those guys, especialy since they would all be good for us

I'm not ruling out Rozee or Hately climbing up to be in the mix with Smith.

With so many Vic kids playing school footy, it's hard to get a read on the TAC cup at this time of year. Not many other highly rated Vic kids having the consistent season that Walsh and Smith are.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Riley Collier-Dawkins will be one to watch. According to KM he has the potential to be one of the top picks.

 

[Dylan12]

Episode guide

3:24 – Who shapes as Brisbane's top pick this year? We discuss this year's draft pool
6:20 – Will another Voss be joining the Lions? The guys chat about the father-son prospect
8:10 – When did Brisbane settle on Cam Rayner for the No.1?
13:00 – Why the Lions expected Hugh McCluggage to blossom this season
17:00 – We go behind the scenes to Luke Hodge's recruitment at the end of last year
25:10 – Is the doubt over Dayne Beams' future at the Lions warranted?
28:12 – Conole's take on the wider recruiting issues facing the game