2018 Draft thread

[briztoon]

I've got a few concerns about Smith personally. Am not sure he's quite the player the hype would suggest. Fully reserve the right to change my mind if we end up taking him though.

In what regards?

I see Smith being a Lachie Neale type with potentially more hurt factor.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

In what regards?

I see Smith being a Lachie Neale type with potentially more hurt factor.

I think that's a pretty outrageous comment to make really, and is indicative of the drastic overrating of draft prospects vs proven performers.

I think most would agree that Smith is likely to be the second midfielder taken in this year's draft. Here's some recent second midfielders taken in drafts:

2010 - Harley Bennell (pick 2)
2011 - Dom Tyson (pick 3)
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke (pick 2)
2013 - Jack Billings (pick 3)
2014 - Angus Brayshaw (pick 3)
2015 - Clayton Oliver (pick 4)

All of them had similar hype - if not significantly more in some cases - to what Smith has had. In hindsight, Oliver is the only one you would take over Neale. And even then, I don't think the difference between the two is enormous.

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I'm just surprised how short people's memories can be when it comes to the draft. All it takes is a quick look over previous drafts to realise how much of a gamble it is. I remember making the comment in 2012 that Jimmy Toumpas looked as safe a bet as a gun midfielder as there could possibly be. That taught me a lesson.

 

[Lazza16]

I think that's a pretty outrageous comment to make really, and is indicative of the drastic overrating of draft prospects vs proven performers.

I think most would agree that Smith is likely to be the second midfielder taken in this year's draft. Here's some recent second midfielders taken in drafts:

2010 - Harley Bennell (pick 2)
2011 - Dom Tyson (pick 3)
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke (pick 2)
2013 - Jack Billings (pick 3)
2014 - Angus Brayshaw (pick 3)
2015 - Clayton Oliver (pick 4)

All of them had similar hype - if not significantly more in some cases - to what Smith has had. In hindsight, Oliver is the only one you would take over Neale. And even then, I don't think the difference between the two is enormous.

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I'm just surprised how short people's memories can be when it comes to the draft. All it takes is a quick look over previous drafts to realise how much of a gamble it is. I remember making the comment in 2012 that Jimmy Toumpas looked as safe a bet as a gun midfielder as there could possibly be. That taught me a lesson.

OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG IF ONLY WE HAVE TAKEN OLIVER HUHUHU

 

[a mayes ing]

I think that's a pretty outrageous comment to make really, and is indicative of the drastic overrating of draft prospects vs proven performers.

I think most would agree that Smith is likely to be the second midfielder taken in this year's draft. Here's some recent second midfielders taken in drafts:

2010 - Harley Bennell (pick 2)
2011 - Dom Tyson (pick 3)
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke (pick 2)
2013 - Jack Billings (pick 3)
2014 - Angus Brayshaw (pick 3)
2015 - Clayton Oliver (pick 4)

All of them had similar hype - if not significantly more in some cases - to what Smith has had. In hindsight, Oliver is the only one you would take over Neale. And even then, I don't think the difference between the two is enormous.

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I'm just surprised how short people's memories can be when it comes to the draft. All it takes is a quick look over previous drafts to realise how much of a gamble it is. I remember making the comment in 2012 that Jimmy Toumpas looked as safe a bet as a gun midfielder as there could possibly be. That taught me a lesson.

Actually l would take Oliver over him by a fair margin. Brayshaw is starting to turn out really good now and is still 3 or so years younger. I would probably pick Bennel over all of them if it wasn't for injuries

 

[CuttlefishMcfly]

I think that's a pretty outrageous comment to make really, and is indicative of the drastic overrating of draft prospects vs proven performers.

I think most would agree that Smith is likely to be the second midfielder taken in this year's draft. Here's some recent second midfielders taken in drafts:

2010 - Harley Bennell (pick 2)
2011 - Dom Tyson (pick 3)
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke (pick 2)
2013 - Jack Billings (pick 3)
2014 - Angus Brayshaw (pick 3)
2015 - Clayton Oliver (pick 4)

All of them had similar hype - if not significantly more in some cases - to what Smith has had. In hindsight, Oliver is the only one you would take over Neale. And even then, I don't think the difference between the two is enormous.

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I'm just surprised how short people's memories can be when it comes to the draft. All it takes is a quick look over previous drafts to realise how much of a gamble it is. I remember making the comment in 2012 that Jimmy Toumpas looked as safe a bet as a gun midfielder as there could possibly be. That taught me a lesson.

Briztoon just asked in which regards... No need to be a dick about it.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Briztoon just asked in which regards... No need to be a dick about it.

Wow. In what universe does a well thought out and reasoned response equal being “a dick about it”?

 

[luthor]

Wow. In what universe does a well thought out and reasoned response equal being “a dick about it”?

*Whew*

It never ceases to amaze me how there is this propensity for some to rush to the rescue of others with overblown indignation on their behalf.

As if ppl around here can't fend for themselves should they feel taken out of context or unfairly impugned

 

[Haso]

Briztoon just asked in which regards... No need to be a dick about it.

Eh?

Polite post with cited examples =/= being a dick.

This is why I don't usually read the draft thread.

 

[Nunez]

Eh?

Polite post with cited examples =/= being a dick.

This is why I don't usually read the draft thread.

No need to shout him down in your polite rebuttal....

 

[Comeback Lions]

I enjoyed Patty's post, but I am also struggling to see how Briztoon's post is a "pretty outrageous comment". It isn't, which was CuttlefishMcfly's point, as I understand it. Anyway, time to move on from sniping.

 

[Haso]

No need to shout him down in your polite rebuttal....

You have offended my honour sir.

 

[Haso]

Anyway, time to move on from sniping.

But that's my wheelhouse man.

 

[Nunez]

You have offended my honour sir.

 

[SizeMatters]

Actually l would take Oliver over him by a fair margin. Brayshaw is starting to turn out really good now and is still 3 or so years younger. I would probably pick Bennel over all of them if it wasn't for injuries

Bennell is the most talented player I have ever seen. His potential was off the charts. Such a pity it turned out the ay it has for him.

 

[Lazza16]

Only 170 days to go to the first game...give or take

 

[Nunez]

I enjoyed Patty's post, but I am also struggling to see how Briztoon's post is a "pretty outrageous comment". It isn't, which was CuttlefishMcfly's point, as I understand it. Anyway, time to move on from sniping.

I can see how it could be considered outrageous to say Smith projects as a better version of Neale given Neale is a bonafide A Grader and Smith hasn't even been drafted yet. Regardless, it hardly seemed like a snipe, especially in context of the entire post.

Surely we're grown enough to not take offense to something so tiny?

 

[SizeMatters]

I can see how it could be considered outrageous to say Smith projects as a better version of Neale given Neale is a bonafide A Grader and Smith hasn't even been drafted yet. Regardless, it hardly seemed like a snipe, especially in context of the entire post.

Surely we're grown enough to not take offense to something so tiny?

Mr. I-Make-Sure-To-Tell-Everyone-I-Have-A-Working-Ignore-List.

 

[Gibbo_88]

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I would say from 2010-2015 I definitely overrated draft picks, most people that were lions supporters probably did too. The club didn't have much to sell so getting shiny new players at the top end of the draft is something to be excited about. Now I've gone the opposite and lean slightly towards trading our 1st/2nd for a player that is best 22 if they're available and won't watch any draft clips until we draft them. I wouldn't want to trade every 1st and 2nd round pick as well as future picks but every 2nd year or so a really good player is available and it just happens that two years in a row we have a chance at one.

It would be interesting to hear the difference in value that supporters have compared to what the coaches think of picks vs established players.

 

[luthor]

Mr. I-Make-Sure-To-Tell-Everyone-I-Have-A-Working-Ignore-List.

I don't believe in Ignore Lists.

Diversity of opinion is a healthy thing.

I just hope someone is reading this.

 

[BangyBangy]

I don't believe in Ignore Lists.

Diversity of opinion is a healthy thing.

I just hope someone is reading this.

Blocked.

 

[luthor]

Blocked.

There goes my last reader

 

[Nunez]

I don't believe in Ignore Lists.

Diversity of opinion is a healthy thing.

I just hope someone is reading this.

Diversity of opinion is a healthy and great thing, however there comes a time when the ignore list is useful - dealing with trolls.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I think that's a pretty outrageous comment to make really, and is indicative of the drastic overrating of draft prospects vs proven performers.

I think most would agree that Smith is likely to be the second midfielder taken in this year's draft. Here's some recent second midfielders taken in drafts:

2010 - Harley Bennell (pick 2)
2011 - Dom Tyson (pick 3)
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke (pick 2)
2013 - Jack Billings (pick 3)
2014 - Angus Brayshaw (pick 3)
2015 - Clayton Oliver (pick 4)

All of them had similar hype - if not significantly more in some cases - to what Smith has had. In hindsight, Oliver is the only one you would take over Neale. And even then, I don't think the difference between the two is enormous.

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I'm just surprised how short people's memories can be when it comes to the draft. All it takes is a quick look over previous drafts to realise how much of a gamble it is. I remember making the comment in 2012 that Jimmy Toumpas looked as safe a bet as a gun midfielder as there could possibly be. That taught me a lesson.

Too many variable when comparing events like this. Impossible to know if the saints traded pick 3 in 2013, that Billings would have been taken there, maybe Bont or Aish goes earlier,

The draft pick doesn’t have to turn out to be as good as Neale to “breakeven”
Another part of the equation needs to be that Neale has already given 6 quality years service at another club, with no real benefit to us. A player that could give us 10 years service at a slight less standard, would still be a pretty decent outcome for us.

On the flip side of that landing Neale could be a real turning point, weve seen in the past how this type of momentum can carry. 2014 once Beams looked likely, Christensen kind of fell in our laps, Ryder reportedly toured and gave us some serious consideration. Last year Essendon with Devon, Stringer and Saad. Port with Rockliff, Motlop and Watts.

The other huge benefit is the instant learning experience he’ll give Berry, Rayner, McCluggage, Bailey etc. Not being a monster inside Mids, means he’s not bullying to get disposal but has made a real craft of it, something that he can hopefully teach them.

 

[luthor]

Diversity of opinion is a healthy and great thing, however there comes a time when the ignore list is useful - dealing with trolls.

Blocked!

Revenge

!

 

[Kevvo]

Too many variable when comparing events like this. Impossible to know if the saints traded pick 3 in 2013, that Billings would have been taken there, maybe Bont or Aish goes earlier,

The draft pick doesn’t have to turn out to be as good as Neale to “breakeven”
Another part of the equation needs to be that Neale has already given 6 quality years service at another club, with no real benefit to us. A player that could give us 10 years service at a slight less standard, would still be a pretty decent outcome for us.

On the flip side of that landing Neale could be a real turning point, weve seen in the past how this type of momentum can carry. 2014 once Beams looked likely, Christensen kind of fell in our laps, Ryder reportedly toured and gave us some serious consideration. Last year Essendon with Devon, Stringer and Saad. Port with Rockliff, Motlop and Watts.

The other huge benefit is the instant learning experience he’ll give Berry, Rayner, McCluggage, Bailey etc. Not being a monster inside Mids, means he’s not bullying to get disposal but has made a real craft of it, something that he can hopefully teach them.

Similarly though, Neale will be ready to shoulder load in a year or two when Beams and Zorko fade. A new draftee won’t. Continuity and momentum are critical for a club in our position.

I’d argue that an improved age profile at the right time outweighs for us the potential value of two potential good players that won’t peak for 5-6 more years. That’s not true for all clubs at all times, but we already have a very talented young core. At some point you just need to consolidate and be good.