2018 Draft thread

[briztoon]

I think that's a pretty outrageous comment to make really, and is indicative of the drastic overrating of draft prospects vs proven performers.

I think most would agree that Smith is likely to be the second midfielder taken in this year's draft. Here's some recent second midfielders taken in drafts:

2010 - Harley Bennell (pick 2)
2011 - Dom Tyson (pick 3)
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke (pick 2)
2013 - Jack Billings (pick 3)
2014 - Angus Brayshaw (pick 3)
2015 - Clayton Oliver (pick 4)

All of them had similar hype - if not significantly more in some cases - to what Smith has had. In hindsight, Oliver is the only one you would take over Neale. And even then, I don't think the difference between the two is enormous.

Smith might go on to be a good player, but there is a proven history of draftees being significantly overrated in comparison to proven performers. Particularly midfielders - people seem to think they're a safe bet in the top end compared to tall players, even though there are just as many examples of early draft pick midfielders failing as there are talls.

I'm just surprised how short people's memories can be when it comes to the draft. All it takes is a quick look over previous drafts to realise how much of a gamble it is. I remember making the comment in 2012 that Jimmy Toumpas looked as safe a bet as a gun midfielder as there could possibly be. That taught me a lesson.

I understand where you are coming from, and do agree in some respects.

My main concern is that we may be selling our future somewhat in trading for Neale. Yes we are trading in a known, high valued player compared to the unknown draft pick/s. But for me, I worry that Neale has a limited shelf life and while we are likely to play finals during that time, I genuinely expect our club to be fighting for a flag when the likes of Berry and McCluggage are 25 to 28 years of age. And I worry Neale won't be the same player then, as he is now.

I would 100% rather a younger Angus Brayshaw or Clayton Oliver type running out with the Berry and McCluggage than an older Lachie Neal if we were in a GF in 2023, 2024 or 2025.

There is no guarantee that the players picked at our pick 5 and ~25 will be the same quality as Neale, or Brayshaw or Oliver. But there's also no guarentee Lachie Neale will be the same player he is now, in 2023.

I look at the likes of Tom Rockliff, Dayne Beams, Daniel Rich and Hanley, and the toll the game takes on players and worry that while Neale might fast track our team development now, it's to the detriment of our future.

If it was Clayton Oliver, as I mentioned before, I'd be 100% on board, as I see him fitting our finals team list profile much better. Or if we were making a similar trade for a player the same age in two years time, againI'd be much more comfortable. It just feels we are going a bit early.

 

[briztoon]

Waiting to see where this talk of the GC Suns and May mutually agreeing to terminate his contract, thus effectively making him a restricted free agent, which would trigger Band 1 compensation, giving the GC Suns picks 2, 3 (for Lynch) and 4 (for May).

 

[scott_the_man]

Aish is another one who most thought to be a safe pick as a top end midfielder. Many rated him top 3 at times during his draft year, some even had him at number 1.

The draft is always a risk, even at the pointy end. Neale is well and truly worth our first and second picks in my opinion, given he is a proven A grader who consistently performs week in week out.

 

[Dylan12]

Mr. I-Make-Sure-To-Tell-Everyone-I-Have-A-Working-Ignore-List.

I reckon you’ve got the wrong very regular poster that feels the need to remind everyone of that point Sizey

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I understand where you are coming from, and do agree in some respects.

My main concern is that we may be selling our future somewhat in trading for Neale. Yes we are trading in a known, high valued player compared to the unknown draft pick/s. But for me, I worry that Neale has a limited shelf life and while we are likely to play finals during that time, I genuinely expect our club to be fighting for a flag when the likes of Berry and McCluggage are 25 to 28 years of age. And I worry Neale won't be the same player then, as he is now.

I would 100% rather a younger Angus Brayshaw or Clayton Oliver type running out with the Berry and McCluggage than an older Lachie Neal if we were in a GF in 2023, 2024 or 2025.

I agree - I'd absolutely love Oliver or Brayshaw. I don't think we're any chance of getting them though.

The conversation was more around Neale up against, for example, Bailey Smith though, and I still think on any reasoned analysis you'd have to choose Neale over Smith.

It's an interesting point though as to when we're likely to challenge for a flag. If it takes another 6 years for us to get there, I think we'll probably need Neale even more so to mitigate the drop off of Beams/Zorko etc retiring. You could even make the argument that Berry & McCluggage might leave if we have a significant drop off, and that we'll need something to stem the tide.

I think our future is reasonably well set up for. We've got a better crop of young (as in under 22) top-end talent than just about any other club in my view. While it would always be nice to add to it, I think the glaring issue on our list isn't a lack of elite young talent but a lack of quality 23-27 year olds. That's the hole we have to fix up to keep this build tracking as it should.

 

[Jivlain]

Diversity of opinion is a healthy and great thing, however there comes a time when the ignore list is useful - dealing with trolls.

People tend to go onto my ignore list temporarily - I get a bit bored of them, ignore them, then I go through and clear out my ignore list every now and again. The mods round here seem to do a decent job of getting long-term trolls out of the way.

 

[Viceregal]

I don't have anyone on my ignore list ... occasionally I find myself scrolling through discussions that just don't do it for me but often I am reading the content without being particularly aware of the poster. Yes there are periods where one particular poster will impinge for unfortunate reasons but over time they either move on or moderate their vibe but there is no one that I would see their avatar and groan inside or wish they would just go away (well occasionally there are 'Lions' supporters who post on the main board but never here who I don't otherwise know and either bag the club on all occasions or come across as 12 with a shoulder chip who I wish would change their club notification...)

 

[jjami15]

I came away from this season finally hopeful of what the future would bring due to the the 'green shoots' shown by our younger players. I especially was impressed by Berry and openly stated that he should be the midfielder that we build around and not Zorko or Beams. The possible acquisition of Neale doesn't change that for me and still have that belief but can also look at the positives that he could provide for these younger players by carrying some of the load. The 2018 draft will not be the last draft and the 'super draft' label is a massive fallacy but there will be some very good players come out of it and it might not be the top 5/6 or so. If Neale come so be it, if not we go to the draft but the only thing that does concern me is the possibility of using this and next year's first rounder as that is selling the future a little bit as I still want the younger players to be built around for future success.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I'm not going to present myself as having great knowledge on the draft, I just follow the talking heads on the DTFA board. Knightmare, the most prominent of them all, has big wraps on Smith, seeing him as better than Sam Walsh. KM is perfectly capable of being wrong, but it tells me that this is not an easy decision, Smith definitely has the potential to be a better player and possibly a top 5 mid in the competition. Whether he'll get there is another question.

This could all be academic anyway, St Kilda may just take Smith at pick 4. That would leave us with Rankine or one of the Kings, who are talented but are obvious flight risks. I'd rather have Neale than endure the go home factor yet again.

Unless we offered pick 5 to Port for 9 and 10 (received in Polec trade). What are people's thoughts on that?

 

[dlanod]

Waiting to see where this talk of the GC Suns and May mutually agreeing to terminate his contract, thus effectively making him a restricted free agent, which would trigger Band 1 compensation, giving the GC Suns picks 2, 3 (for Lynch) and 4 (for May).

IIRC this was looked at a few years ago - maybe as a circuit breaker for Ryder? The net result is that the player would become a delisted free agent and no compensation would be granted, so the ideas men walked away from it pretty quickly.

Edit: Ah yep.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...l/news-story/b1379f64c5f3b6d0df4ebfb1e97a1fdd

The AFL today has blocked a plan that would have had:

ESSENDON rip up Ryder’s contract — that still has two years to run — and reclassify him as a free agent

ESSENDON gain a first-round compensation pick (No. 21) for losing Ryder as a “free agent”.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Gold Coast ought to just stand firm with May and make him play out his contract. I can see why they aren't taking a stand on Lynch, because he's out of contract, already been outcasted and will fetch a great return. May isn't any of those things right now. They can get a top 5 pick in compensation again next year.

 

[Comeback Lions]

I can see how it could be considered outrageous to say Smith projects as a better version of Neale given Neale is a bonafide A Grader and Smith hasn't even been drafted yet. Regardless, it hardly seemed like a snipe, especially in context of the entire post.

Surely we're grown enough to not take offense to something so tiny?

Yeah, I agree, but I wasn’t saying Patty was sniping.

 

[chopperduck]

We have had high draft picks for so long i think some people are a bit scared of not having picks. We already have a young team, we dont NEED young talent this year to support our other young players. When Berry and co are 28-29 it will be the players taken over the next 5 drafts that will be supporting those guys. The age profile gap in our list is the 23-28yo players. We do need some players for the now to make sure Berry and co can keep improving over the next 3-4 years. Lets make some finals and give these boys that taste.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Of course the best of both worlds would be to use the higher picks to trade for mature talent and find a hidden gem or two with our lowers picks.

 

[Simba Moyo]

There's literally no way letting a player leave early to gain free agency compo would happen, it's a very, VERY dangerous precedent to set. If he wants now then club chasing him has to pay up. Simple.

 

[Dalions]

There's literally no way letting a player leave early to gain free agency compo would happen, it's a very, VERY dangerous precedent to set. If he wants now then club chasing him has to pay up. Simple.

We should just ask Freo and Neale to rip up their contract!
Yeah, right!

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Well, in a sense, the growing tendency for contracted players to ask for trades in circumstances where the club is almost obliged to comply in order to get full value is almost akin to tearing up a contract.

 

[Lazza16]

Bailey Smith a guest on future stars today

 

[M Malice]

Callum Twomey's latest power rankings out today-
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-16/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-september

1- Sam Walsh.
2- Jack Lukosius.
3- Izak Rankine.
4- Max King.
5- Bailey Smith.
6- Ben King.
7- Nick Blakey.
8- Connor Rozee.
9- Jye Caldwell.
10- Jackson Hately.
11- Isaac Quaynor.
12- Tarryn Thomas.
13- Riley Collier-Dawkins.
14- Ian Hill.
15- Curtis Taylor.
16- Rhylee West.
17- Jordan Clark.
18- Zac Butters.
19- Luke Valente.
20- Liam Stoker.
21- Jez McLennan.
22- Chayce Jones.
23- Xavier Duursma.
24- Connor McFadyen.
25- Will Kelly.

 

[pulpdriver]

Callum Twomey's latest power rankings out today-
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-16/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-september

1- Sam Walsh.
2- Jack Lukosius.
3- Izak Rankine.
4- Max King.
5- Bailey Smith.
6- Ben King.
7- Nick Blakey.
8- Connor Rozee.
9- Jye Caldwell.
10- Jackson Hately.
11- Isaac Quaynor.
12- Tarryn Thomas.
13- Riley Collier-Dawkins.
14- Ian Hill.
15- Curtis Taylor.
16- Rhylee West.
17- Jordan Clark.
18- Zac Butters.
19- Luke Valente.
20- Liam Stoker.
21- Jez McLennan.
22- Chayce Jones.
23- Xavier Duursma.
24- Connor McFadyen.
25- Will Kelly.

Interesting to see RCD jump up the rankings. Definitely potential in spades but I wasn't aware his output had increased or anything recently, though I guess I have been looking at trade stuff more than draft for the last few weeks. Considering he gets a lot of word from recruiters there must be some growing interest. Jordan Clark and Stocker rising up fast too whilst McFadyen steadily dropping.

 

[SizeMatters]

Callum Twomey's latest power rankings out today-
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-09-16/cal-twomeys-phantom-form-guide-september

1- Sam Walsh.
2- Jack Lukosius.
3- Izak Rankine.
4- Max King.
5- Bailey Smith.
6- Ben King.
7- Nick Blakey.
8- Connor Rozee.
9- Jye Caldwell.
10- Jackson Hately.
11- Isaac Quaynor.
12- Tarryn Thomas.
13- Riley Collier-Dawkins.
14- Ian Hill.
15- Curtis Taylor.
16- Rhylee West.
17- Jordan Clark.
18- Zac Butters.
19- Luke Valente.
20- Liam Stoker.
21- Jez McLennan.
22- Chayce Jones.
23- Xavier Duursma.
24- Connor McFadyen.
25- Will Kelly.

Outside top 8 or so is fairly average IMO. Top 6 is good though.

 

[M Malice]

Interesting to see RCD jump up the rankings. Definitely potential in spades but I wasn't aware his output had increased or anything recently, though I guess I have been looking at trade stuff more than draft for the last few weeks. Considering he gets a lot of word from recruiters there must be some growing interest. Jordan Clark and Stocker rising up fast too whilst McFadyen steadily dropping.

Outside top 8 or so is fairly average IMO. Top 6 is good though.

If we don't get Lachie Neale and take pick 4-5 & 22-25 to the draft the ones I'd like that have a realistic chance of being available at those selections would be Bailey Smith and Liam Stoker.

Take 4 on draft night- Bailey Smith, Liam Stoker, Thomas Berry and Connor McFadyen + Kiedean Coleman in the rookie draft.

 

[cotter101]

If we secure Neale, I’d somehow love us to work out a way to secure Jordan Clark come draft night. Extremely talented.

 

[pulpdriver]

If we secure Neale, I’d somehow love us to work out a way to secure Jordan Clark come draft night. Extremely talented.

He looks awesome but surely he doesn't get past West Coast with them likely to have two picks from 15 - 19. Be tough to manufacture a pick before then, especially if we get Neale.

 

[CarterS]

What’s the history of blokes who have been injured all season being taken in the top 5 of so? Happened much. Huge unknown re: Max King imo