2018 Draft thread

[briztoon]

Tom Berry takes out the 2km time trial for the injured Vic kids who couldn't test at the Combine.

 

[WA Lion]

Tom Berry takes out the 2km time trial for the injured Vic kids who couldn't test at the Combine.

Will be interesting to see where he is drafted.

Just as well that I'm not a recruiter as I would get caught up in the romance of reuniting the brothers and would use one of the picks in the 30s for certain.

Who knows, if we really do want him and are not certain he will last until our pick in the 50s we might not have a choice

 

[BuntonRules]

Will be interesting to see where he is drafted.

Just as well that I'm not a recruiter as I would get caught up in the romance of reuniting the brothers and would use one of the picks in the 30s for certain.

Who knows, if we really do want him and are not certain he will last until our pick in the 50s we might not have a choice

Every year we go a smokey, or a player that has dropped off the radar due to injury. I get the feeling that if we do not reach for Tom, it will come back and bite us.

 

[Saucery]

Draftin someone based on friendships is always something to look at. However it's evident that Rayner has settled in well and made some great mates amongst the younger crew so not sure that would be a reason to draft someone.

You also have to consider the opposite reasoning. Most draft boards have Taylor comfortably in the top 20 so he is definitely there abouts. If our pick comes around and its between a couple of "best available vs best fit" type characters knowing that Raynor may help us retain another vic metro boy could be a tipping point for the selection team. You only need to look at the recent past, or down the road to understand how we have to take account of such realities, fair or otherwise.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Who knows, if we really do want him and are not certain he will last until our pick in the 50s we might not have a choice

Trading down could be an option.

 

[John_Proctor]

You also have to consider the opposite reasoning. Most draft boards have Taylor comfortably in the top 20 so he is definitely there abouts. If our pick comes around and its between a couple of "best available vs best fit" type characters knowing that Raynor may help us retain another vic metro boy could be a tipping point for the selection team. You only need to look at the recent past, or down the road to understand how we have to take account of such realities, fair or otherwise.

agree. he is a legitimate top 25 rated player. and we have had a specific strategy of drafting 'mates' recently. Its not outside the realms of possibilities the stars align (every we wanted in specific positions is picked before our first) and we end up picking Taylor

 

[Billy Puller]

I’m going to back the club in whatever choice they make cause they’re doing a good job

 

[WA Lion]

Trading down could be an option.

Between NGA academy and father son bids plus matching a pick in the 20s (potentially) for McFadyen our pick 35 may become something in the 40s anyway

 

[Fatcat08]

Between NGA academy and father son bids plus matching a pick in the 20s (potentially) for McFadyen our pick 35 may become something in the 40s anyway

Probably not that far. Sydney will lose an extra pick before ours and probably the dogs too. But yes will go back a couple. Pick 56 will almost certainly end up in the mid 40s though with north and pies having lots of picks in the 40s they will lose in only 3 transactions

 

[WA Lion]

Probably not that far. Sydney will lose an extra pick before ours and probably the dogs too. But yes will go back a couple. Pick 56 will almost certainly end up in the mid 40s though with north and pies having lots of picks in the 40s they will lose in only 3 transactions

Just goes to show that there is actually an artform to identifying exactly where your picks will fall. If pick 56 does end up in the 40s I would happily put that on berry.

 

[Comeback Lions]

Probably not that far. Sydney will lose an extra pick before ours and probably the dogs too. But yes will go back a couple. Pick 56 will almost certainly end up in the mid 40s though with north and pies having lots of picks in the 40s they will lose in only 3 transactions

Not trying to be argumentative, but between 11-13 players potentially bid on before our pick 56 (going on Knightmare's mock 3 round draft). I don't think the calcuations are easy to do and maybe pointless, but picks are pushed back as well as forward and there's a tendency for things to cancel out a bit. My gut feeling is that 56 won't move forward into mid 40's... might move forward a few places to low 50s. Anyway happy for someone else to calculate the probabilities of all this, if they have the energy.

 

[BuntonRules]

Just goes to show that there is actually an artform to identifying exactly where your picks will fall. If pick 56 does end up in the 40s I would happily put that on berry.

When you consider what we got Jarrod for, and what he is worth to us, IMO it is responsible recruiting to judge him and his brother as a package.

Question. Would you use picks 17 and 35 for Jarrod Berry. I would.

Next question: Would you use picks 17 and 35 for Jarrod Berry, and little brother? No brainer.

 

[Lions Lions]

Chaycee Jones
Liam Stocker
Xavier Duursma
Riley Collier-Dawkins
Jez McClennan

If they're all available at our first pick who do we pick? I'd personally rule out the half backs. Rate Collier Dawkins & Stocker the highest for our needs. A premiership is built on midfield depth. I don't think Collier-Dawkins will be there (reckon pick 15ish) but hoping Stocker is there. Let me know some thoughts out of those 5 or anyone else i may have missed that could be a good shot

Cant win a flag with our current backline. Do you think 2 of Stewart, Laird, Hibberd, Hurn or Whitfield are coming to us next year to replace Hodge and Rich. WE desperately need to find a couple of half back flankers and the draft is our avenue. The only player on your list i would still draft at 18 (22) but surely he would be gone is stocker. Otherwise McClennan would be perfect. Got 200 gamer written all over him.

 

[Lions Lions]

Jacob Kennerley at 30 or 35 (depending on bids for Mcfadyen) as the best available running half back.

Wasnt sold on his highlights i thought his kicking left a lot to be desired.... Id take Nick Hind from Essendon VFL before Kennerley even at 30 or 35.

 

[jjami15]

Will Hamill is the one I would pick as that running HBF as a prospect with one of the later picks. I can understand the liking for Jez McClennan and wouldn't be dissapointed but still think that a mid will be taken with our first pick. In regards to Tom Berry, just get it done and also send a message to Jarrod Cameron by bidding on him as well.

 

[Brizzys Squizzy]

Cant win a flag with our current backline. Do you think 2 of Stewart, Laird, Hibberd, Hurn or Whitfield are coming to us next year to replace Hodge and Rich. WE desperately need to find a couple of half back flankers and the draft is our avenue. The only player on your list i would still draft at 18 (22) but surely he would be gone is stocker. Otherwise McClennan would be perfect. Got 200 gamer written all over him.

Yep agree Stocker is the one but tigers will take him before our pick so mclennan durrsma or Smith not a fan of Jones although admit only going off highlights I've seen of him

 

[Brizzys Squizzy]

With McCarthy coming in and cameron to come back I will be very surprised and disappointed if we take a small forward type with our first pick has to be a contested on ball type or hard running half backer.

 

[Berrygood]

Cant win a flag with our current backline. Do you think 2 of Stewart, Laird, Hibberd, Hurn or Whitfield are coming to us next year to replace Hodge and Rich. WE desperately need to find a couple of half back flankers and the draft is our avenue. The only player on your list i would still draft at 18 (22) but surely he would be gone is stocker. Otherwise McClennan would be perfect. Got 200 gamer written all over him.

Why do you think rich will need replacing at the end of next year? He is currently the 4th ranked sm/med defender in the comp (see afl players stats on afl site) and still has a few good years left in him. He certainly has the ability to become that back 6 general when hodge finishes playing and hopefully takes up a coaching role. Also, why do you think andrews, gardiner, witherden arent good enough to be in a flag winning back 6?

 

[Dylan12]

Will Hamill is the one I would pick as that running HBF as a prospect with one of the later picks. I can understand the liking for Jez McClennan and wouldn't be dissapointed but still think that a mid will be taken with our first pick. In regards to Tom Berry, just get it done and also send a message to Jarrod Cameron by bidding on him as well.

Given I have NFI when it comes to the draft, would it be unreasonable to bid on Cameron at pick 18? (IDK how highly rated he his; hence the question) Would another club have likely already bid on Cameron by the stage and if not, and we did bid, would West Coast match and if they didn’t, would we’ve overpaid?

 

[briztoon]

Given I have NFI when it comes to the draft, would it be unreasonable to bid on Cameron at pick 18? (IDK how highly rated he his; hence the question) Would another club have likely already bid on Cameron by the stage and if not, and we did bid, would West Coast match and if they didn’t, would we’ve overpaid?

No team is likely to bid on Cameron inside 30.

If Cameron was what we genuinely needed to round out our top 26 players, then a bid at ~18 would still be an over pay. I don’t believe the Eagles would match a bid, because it uses the very next pick, as the Eagles have the next pick after our pick 18.

 

[briztoon]

Worth having a look at.

Here's a top 100:

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Cant win a flag with our current backline. Do you think 2 of Stewart, Laird, Hibberd, Hurn or Whitfield are coming to us next year to replace Hodge and Rich. WE desperately need to find a couple of half back flankers and the draft is our avenue. The only player on your list i would still draft at 18 (22) but surely he would be gone is stocker. Otherwise McClennan would be perfect. Got 200 gamer written all over him.

Interesting the players you’ve mentioned Steward (pick 40), Laird (Rookie) Hibberd (Pre-Season) Hurn was a first rounder. Whitefield is a midfielder, a luxury for a team who on paper had a starting midfield of Shiel, Coniglio, Ward, Kelly and Scully

I’m not doubting any of their value, you’d be happy to walk away with a player of that standard at our first. More that it maybe an under appreciated position.

Zac Williams, Short, Johannisen, Rampe, Lloyd, Roberton, Wood, Maynard all examples of mid draft to rookie selections. Plenty more examples, Crisp, Saad, Tuohey, Harbrow, Suckling, Houli, Wilson and Marley Williams not only selected late but traded as well.

It also a position that a young player can have an immediate impact in, we’ve seen that with Witherden. Considering how regularly these player can be found and the immediate impact I wouldn’t view it as a desperate situation yet.

Always good to read through other supporter thoughts on where our team is heading, my view is similar to Micks I’d like to see us add Midfield talent with our first. Duursma my preference

 

[Fatcat08]

Not trying to be argumentative, but between 11-13 players potentially bid on before our pick 56 (going on Knightmare's mock 3 round draft). I don't think the calcuations are easy to do and maybe pointless, but picks are pushed back as well as forward and there's a tendency for things to cancel out a bit. My gut feeling is that 56 won't move forward into mid 40's... might move forward a few places to low 50s. Anyway happy for someone else to calculate the probabilities of all this, if they have the energy.

I would but the machinations are a pain in the ass to calculate and live move picks all over the place. Perhaps not mid 40's but i wouldn't' be shocked if it ended up in the late 40's. The bigfooty mock draft had it at pick 51 and that was with knightmare not matching on either of Collingwood's two academy guys who will almost certainly will be matched and would have cost them at least two more picks in that range before 56. That would have meant it was pick 49. The rest of the academy picks there weren't unreasonable in their placement.

Still I think a bid for McFadyen comes after our second and before our third so makes it a bit of a moot point.

 

[WA Lion]

I would but the machinations are a pain in the ass to calculate and live move picks all over the place. Perhaps not mid 40's but i wouldn't' be shocked if it ended up in the late 40's. The bigfooty mock draft had it at pick 51 and that was with knightmare not matching on either of Collingwood's two academy guys who will almost certainly will be matched and would have cost them at least two more picks in that range before 56. That would have meant it was pick 49. The rest of the academy picks there weren't unreasonable in their placement.

Still I think a bid for McFadyen comes after our second and before our third so makes it a bit of a moot point.

If you assume bids matched for blakey at 8, Thomas at 12, quaynor at 15 and west at 20, then with the academy discount there are 9 picks disappearing/moving back to the end of the draft before our pick 56. This is of course offset by the 4 picks used to actually match on the players.

The variable that is more difficult to quantify is where bids for Jarrod Cameron, Bailey Scott, Will Kelly and Kieran Briggs come. Pick 56 could come forward quite a bit more with bids earlier on those players.

 

[John_Proctor]

Still I think a bid for McFadyen comes after our second and before our third so makes it a bit of a moot point.

If this were to happen and we had surplus points do those points get returned to us on our last pick/ eg. Pick 78 is upgraded to pick 70?

If not then I can imagine a sneaky trade down in this scenario. A bit at Pick 31 requires pick 37 to match. pick 33 pick 39. So we downgrade a few spots in the draft and get given back some minor benefit "for free" by that club. Eg. a future 4th or even 5th round pick. Or an upgrade of our Pick 56 or Pick 78 this year by 2-3-4 spots.