2018 Draft thread

[Lions Lions]

Conspiracy theory: GWS was going to take Ely at the next pick but ended up having to take O'Halloran, which was why the latter wasn't invited.

No evidence.

Think u r on the money

 

[Harris Specter]

I wonder if Cripps, Fyfe, Neale, Danger, Burton were all "reach picks" at the time, just because one club decided to value him slightly more than other clubs or media reporters. Come round 1, and this is all a non-issue anyway.

 

[jackess]

As I stated, my preference was that if no one else with picks in our area rated Smith (which I think is evident, given he was only invited last minute because of us), that you either trade up to get into the back end of the 2nd tier talent (apparently we rated Duursma and Sturt), or you trade down so that you get the same talent, but also might move up another pick. To be a top side, you have to take advantage of every situation. You have to get good talent, and you have to get good value. I'm happy to back in the club on talent. I just have my questions over our ability to extract value during the list management stage of the year.

You asked what I would have done (and I've no evidence that the club didn't try this - they might have):
Talk to Gold Coast. Offer 18+35 for their 24+29. Given McFadyen is likely to go by 35, this could quite possibly have resulted in us having picks 29+30, instead of 30+56. The trade is in their favour, but depending on their boards, even if we had to throw in a pick swap in their favour, I'd have done it.

‘I’ Might have ‘heard’ that Conole and the team were very active trying to make a trade happen.

But assume the worst if that’s what suits you.

 

[Brett C]

As I stated, my preference was that if no one else with picks in our area rated Smith (which I think is evident, given he was only invited last minute because of us), that you either trade up to get into the back end of the 2nd tier talent (apparently we rated Duursma and Sturt), or you trade down so that you get the same talent, but also might move up another pick. To be a top side, you have to take advantage of every situation. You have to get good talent, and you have to get good value. I'm happy to back in the club on talent. I just have my questions over our ability to extract value during the list management stage of the year.

You asked what I would have done (and I've no evidence that the club didn't try this - they might have):
Talk to Gold Coast. Offer 18+35 for their 24+29. Given McFadyen is likely to go by 35, this could quite possibly have resulted in us having picks 29+30, instead of 30+56. The trade is in their favour, but depending on their boards, even if we had to throw in a pick swap in their favour, I'd have done it.

So I’m confused did you want us to trade up or down? The club obviously rated Smith and if they looked at trading picks then maybe they didn’t see the benefit of giving up picks to trade up. It also assumes they didn’t rate Smith more than Duursma or Sturt.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

They asked him in his first interview on the stage about his invite, he said he was in Thailand when he heard he had an invite to the draft, but didn't know who asked for him to attend, no club contacted him either, he was clueless as to what had unfolded.

And it was Shifter Sheehan who rang him and be assured he wouldn't have told Ely who had requested he attend.

 

[Lions Lions]

Really wrapped in the Smith selection even though I am screaming out for talent off half back. Smith is a genuine bull and something we did lack at the centre bounce. I know this comment could be to full on for some, but I am going to throw it out there. "There is a bit of Dusty about Ely".

Looking ahead to today, Hopefully we can trade up to get Jez McLennan because he will be gone by our next pick. He has got star written all over him and given half back is such a crucial position for structure and gameplay, I am somewhat suprised that he didnt go top 20. Gold coast will take him with there next pick I believe, so unless we trade up we will miss out on him.

There isnt a lot of elite under 18 talent off half back after him so look for the lions to get in a mature age half back. Someone ready to go next year. Nick Hind (ess vfl) and Marty Hore (coll vfl) .... will both play afl next year.

The other VFL talent on the rise is Tom Jok, would be pumped if we could claim him with our 4th pick.

ALSO i think we may take 1 small forward. One who can develop a bit first in the Neafl. Looking at Boyd Woodcock. Has all the right attributes to make it in the AFL.

 

[briztoon]

It also assumes they didn’t rate Smith more than Duursma or Sturt.

They didn’t as per the post from the club draft night on the previous page.

 

[Tom14]

Hi everyone,

Bit of a run down of last night that I can remember.

Sam Lord did a sensational job. This was a really great night that due to the long length of those between picks, gave the chance to really get a good feel for what the Lions were targeting and to feel really engaged in the draft.

First up we got to do the obligatory phantom draft but we were all presented with a recruiters handbook hat was pretty comprehensive in stuff. Had a bit of history of drafts, history of picks, info on what we did through list management and trade weeks and then what the academy is and has been producing.

When the draft starting One of our Victoria scouts, Shane Rogers gave a run through of what clubs would be getting with each pick and some detail of what he gives each week in his role. Typically he would watch 4 to 5 matches a round and then give detail on a bunch of players leading to upwards of 80 reports each week. Apparently he is very thorough and he has a pro for a to highlight contested ability etc

Then the draft started which was really interesting. They spoke of who we would have picked at each pick and we had Walsh, RANKINE AND luckciuos King in that order before pick 5. Then we would have picked Joe Caldwell if we still had 5. Then we death rode him until he got selected by th eGiants at pick 11. Jordon Clarke was our next and bang the Cats ‘nab’d him (one for the sponsors) to bring Durham to our radar. Power were our worry and sure enough they selected him and Ely was known by all that he was the desired nxt pick.

In this they actively tried to get another pick in the top 20 I assume to get Duursma also. But they couldn’t get it done as np club could be satisfied.

So Smith, they love him. Another contested midfield who they believe has tremendous upside in his outside game cause he has really great vision. He is strong, explosive and they believe will really compliment our midfield group going forward. Today, they will explore live trading to push a little higher mainly to protect against a McFadgen bid but are comfortable going forward.

Then Johnno Brown came in and spoke to the crowd and had a quick beer before he left. I have heard him speak about the Lions before but he was different this time. He was glowing on the manner in which the culture has truly changed, the leadership of Noble and FAgen with the group and the impact it has had through every aspect of the club. Ely is Joel Smith (hawks and Saints) nephew and he will be having a chat to him about what playing for th Lions is all about at a BBQ that Joel is having on the weekend I thi;k. He is rapt with the club.

Then we heard from Leon HARRIS and Luke Curran about recruiting philosophy and the Academy growth and development. Then the big ones.

STEPHEN Conole spoke of their efforts to trade in to the first round and what Ely will bring. This is covered on the website before Fages stood up and spoke.

Anyone who listed would have been just so proud of where the Lions are going. He spoke of the leadership of the players to each other comparing the start of this preseason to 2 years ago. They are driving each other and going hard at Everything every sessoin. They expect to be better and have embraced what needs to be done. He has such a calm nature yet you can see how much he reached emotoinally into the players. He spoke of their drive, belief, trust and desire and how this will build sustained success at the club and that the players own it.

He then spoke about Ely. It is now about getting to know him cause the Lions coaching is about building strong relatoinships with each player to find out what makes them tick. He will take a road trip to Ely home on the MURRAY to meet his parents and him in their own environment so they are comfortable and so he can see what makes his character. He is very happy they got him and sung the praises of his team of recruiters and the trust he has in them.

I left feeling so happy to be part of the Lions. This is a united team in every way and the night was a reflection of how each part, From Swanny down to the Victorian based staff and suppporters are engaged and believing there are good times ahead that will last.

Can’t wait for tonight where we go through the entire draft finish.

Go Lions

Thanks for the fantastic insight, and also thanks to Dylan12 for spoiling during the draft that 21 was going to be Smith even if RCD got past Richmond

These functions have sounded fantastic the last few years and I'm going to have to try make it to one of them (would help if the draft wasn't on a thursday night!).

Where did the club have Smith ranked on their overall board? From what you said it sounds like they had him at the lower end of the top 10-12 (behind Caldwell, Clark and Duursma) but were there others in that range that we might have taken ahead of Smith if they had slipped further?

 

[WA Lion]

Really wrapped in the Smith selection even though I am screaming out for talent off half back. Smith is a genuine bull and something we did lack at the centre bounce. I know this comment could be to full on for some, but I am going to throw it out there. "There is a bit of Dusty about Ely".

Looking ahead to today, Hopefully we can trade up to get Jez McLennan because he will be gone by our next pick. He has got star written all over him and given half back is such a crucial position for structure and gameplay, I am somewhat suprised that he didnt go top 20. Gold coast will take him with there next pick I believe, so unless we trade up we will miss out on him.

There isnt a lot of elite under 18 talent off half back after him so look for the lions to get in a mature age half back. Someone ready to go next year. Nick Hind (ess vfl) and Marty Hore (coll vfl) .... will both play afl next year.

The other VFL talent on the rise is Tom Jok, would be pumped if we could claim him with our 4th pick.

ALSO i think we may take 1 small forward. One who can develop a bit first in the Neafl. Looking at Boyd Woodcock. Has all the right attributes to make it in the AFL.

Yep, keen on mclennan too. If we could snare him before McFadyen that would be a good outcome. Hopefully berry and English too with later picks

 

[dlanod]

They didn’t as per the post from the club draft night on the previous page.

He was well ahead of Sturt, though obviously not Duursma.

 

[KissKiss]

Thanks for the fantastic insight, and also thanks to Dylan12 for spoiling during the draft that 21 was going to be Smith even if RCD got past Richmond

These functions have sounded fantastic the last few years and I'm going to have to try make it to one of them (would help if the draft wasn't on a thursday night!).

Where did the club have Smith ranked on their overall board? From what you said it sounds like they had him at the lower end of the top 10-12 (behind Caldwell, Clark and Duursma) but were there others in that range that we might have taken ahead of Smith if they had slipped further?

I think there were a few other numbers that were skipped over in there. While hoping that Caldwell slipped down there would have been others we rated but Caldwell was the highest left

 

[Tom14]

This stuff just isn't on:


Clubs really disrespect GC, this follows Aaron Hall doing an interview with the Nth website well before a trade got done.

 

[spotthedog1]

(Sorry for the snip)

Why is the above point an issue?

(For reference - snip was "and therefore we took him at the earliest point at which he was possibly going to be drafted" - this is in context, so no issues)

It's an issue of value, not talent. I've been very careful throughout not to say that Ely isn't a good pick talent-wise - I don't know that, and I'm happy to back the club on talent. I have noted several times though that we don't tend to worry about getting good value in the list management phase of the year.

Pick 3 was considered at pick 1, but they decided on someone else. Pick 14 was considered at 11, but they decided on someone else. Pick 21 wasn't even considered at 17, 18, 19 nor 20, and it's highly likely wasn't considered at 22. This indicates that we were an outlier amongst other clubs - which is moderately concerning as to whether one team of professionals are wrong or 5 teams of professionals are wrong - and also indicates that Smith would likely have slid a while further, which indicates a poor value proposition.

I suppose it comes down to each person's individual philosophy. If you could buy a house, and you love it and are happy to pay $500k, but the market value is around $450k, at what point is it a win for you? I believe Noble's philosophy is that you pay what it takes to get what you want, and if you want the house at $500k, you just offer $500k. I tend to prefer to aim for closer to market value even if there's a risk you won't get it - knowing that there are plenty of other houses you like too.

 

[dlanod]

I suppose it comes down to each person's individual philosophy. If you could buy a house, and you love it and are happy to pay $500k, but the market value is around $450k, at what point is it a win for you? I believe Noble's philosophy is that you pay what it takes to get what you want, and if you want the house at $500k, you just offer $500k. I tend to prefer to aim for closer to market value even if there's a risk you won't get it - knowing that there are plenty of other houses you like too.

I get where you're coming from, as I think not rating Ely is a valid difference of opinion. However I don't think the analogy makes sense, nor the grief over not trading back. Realistically AFL clubs are very risk averse - it will take several years before we see the "trade back" style trades seen in US sports, especially with the current pick limitations in place.

I'm not convinced there would've been a willing trade partner to come up to 21, when most would just sit put, wait and see who falls to their pick, and not risk putting any other picks on the table.

Basically there's not enough liquidity in the system to facilitate what you're suggesting, unlike in your example where money is basically infinitely liquid.

 

[spotthedog1]

This stuff just isn't on:


Clubs really disrespect GC, this follows Aaron Hall doing an interview with the Nth website well before a trade got done.

That's shocking. I'd expect that a fair governing body to stamp that out quick smart. Anyone know where we can find a fair governing body?

 

[Tom14]

I get where you're coming from, as I think not rating Ely is a valid difference of opinion. However I don't think the analogy makes sense, nor the grief over not trading back. Realistically AFL clubs are very risk averse - it will take several years before we see the "trade back" style trades seen in US sports, especially with the current pick limitations in place.

I'm not convinced there would've been a willing trade partner to come up to 21, when most would just sit put, wait and see who falls to their pick, and not risk putting any other picks on the table.

Basically there's not enough liquidity in the system to facilitate what you're suggesting, unlike in your example where money is basically infinitely liquid.

The current list spot pick limitations really hamper trading back - basically can only really do it in a swap or using future picks, which a lot of clubs can't trade due to the future pick restrictions. Which sucks because it is a really good strategy!

They really need to lift the future pick trading restrictions - confine it to picks a year out, and you could even keep the (already useless) requirement to make x number of first round picks, but let clubs trade a future first and future second from the same year without having to bring a new future pick in.

 

[jjami15]

This stuff just isn't on:


Clubs really disrespect GC, this follows Aaron Hall doing an interview with the Nth website well before a trade got done.

AFL will do nothing but in all reality there should be some fines or guidelines around commenting about other clubs players........where they get fined

 

[Tom14]

AFL will do nothing but in all reality there should be some fines or guidelines around commenting about other clubs players........where they get fined

Yeah I mean I have no doubt that is what they are thinking internally, but at least don't let your social media staff post about it brazenly. No one would dare do it if it was a Collingwood draftee!

 

[Harris Specter]

Yeah I mean I have no doubt that is what they are thinking internally, but at least don't let your social media staff post about it brazenly. No one would dare do it if it was a Collingwood draftee!

Imagine if the Lions had done that with Walsh.

"Don't forget your bedroom decorated in Lions colours Sammy, see you soon? "

Victorian media would be in meltdown.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I'll offer you a deal. I'll stop saying "reaching" if you admit that no other club was even considering him as a backup option in the first round, and therefore we took him at the earliest point at which he was possibly going to be drafted.

Impossible to know. Carlton (reportedly) had Stocker inside their top 10. Maybe they had Smith at 11. How the hell would anyone really know?

 

[Tom14]

Imagine if the Lions had done that with Walsh.



Victorian media would be in meltdown.

Tim Watson would be calling for us to be stripped of draft picks

 

[Brett C]

They didn’t as per the post from the club draft night on the previous page.

Wasn’t that the poster saying they assumed Duursma was the target if we traded up? I didn’t read it as a given he was who we wanted but could be wrong. Maybe someone at the draft function can confirm

 

[Cockliff38]

Unsurprisingly, Daniel Cherny (The Age) is tipping we'll use a late pick on Tom Berry

 

[spotthedog1]

I get where you're coming from, as I think not rating Ely is a valid difference of opinion. However I don't think the analogy makes sense, nor the grief over not trading back. Realistically AFL clubs are very risk averse - it will take several years before we see the "trade back" style trades seen in US sports, especially with the current pick limitations in place.

I'm not convinced there would've been a willing trade partner to come up to 21, when most would just sit put, wait and see who falls to their pick, and not risk putting any other picks on the table.

Basically there's not enough liquidity in the system to facilitate what you're suggesting, unlike in your example where money is basically infinitely liquid.

Very true - completely agree on the liquidity factors. I came up with a potential trade with Gold Coast a few posts back, that I considered to be in their favour and beneficial for us... If they didn't want anyone specific at 21 though, there's no way we'd get them on board.

You always hope for a slider, but can't blame the higher picks for taking the higher prospects. I'm not depressed and despondent about the pick. Probably wistful would be a better descriptor of my mood. A shame that our pick was just below that 2nd tier of talent. Got our pick of the 3rd tier, but still, a bit wistful.

And whatever criticism I have of Noble's ability to extract value, I am still stoked with him as our head of football. In my view, he is an absolute gun at 90% of his job, which has very diverse aspects. I can be critical of him at trade/draft time, but still much rather have him than someone else.

 

[spotthedog1]

Impossible to know. Carlton (reportedly) had Stocker inside their top 10. Maybe they had Smith at 11. How the hell would anyone really know?

Exactly as I've already stated multiple times, you'd know if other clubs had him as a first round talent, because Ely Smith would've been invited to the draft earlier, and by another club. It's been very well leaked that we are the only club that wanted Ely Smith at the draft as a potential pick.