2018 Draft thread

[dlanod]

What concerns me a little is Matt Balmer (who then passes the information on to pie for life) having such good intel on our draft picks ahead of the first and second round. That's information that really should be kept in-house.

All I can see from his comments are Ely and Tom Berry - no comment on Joyce or Answerth. Gut feel on Ely is that it leaked from AFL House - the fact that we were significantly linked to Curtis Taylor by all and sundry until Ely got invited to the draft is a bit on the nose.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

All I can see from his comments are Ely and Tom Berry - no comment on Joyce or Answerth. Gut feel on Ely is that it leaked from AFL House - the fact that we were significantly linked to Curtis Taylor by all and sundry until Ely got invited to the draft is a bit on the nose.

Matt completed a second day phantom for for Fox Sports. Had us taking Joyce with our first pick, matching a bid for McFayden and taking Berry at our fourth pick.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/cou...t/news-story/8d3bb5434217d36c91a3e585c856684e

 

[spotthedog1]

Reading Moneyball at the moment and one over arching theme of the part I’ve read so far is that if you rate someone in the draft you pick them, don’t think a bit about where others rate them. Guy was picking players in the first round that no one else even rated in the first 5 or 6 rounds. If you like someone, take them.

Spotthedog1 you might enjoy the book if you haven’t read it. Not that we are the A’s nor Noble a Billy Beane but the idea of backing your own judgement in is the same.

Oakland quite famously narrowed a lot of information down to a ranking system based almost exclusively on on-base percentage. There's a bit of difference there. AFL is too different a beast to use a lot of the same ideas.

It's a philosophical difference. I am not saying that Nobes and the team are wrong to do it that way. I'm saying that I have a difference of philosophy to them. To put it in that sort of moneyball context, if your top targets were expected in the 5th and 6th rounds, why not trade your first for multiple 4th rounders, pick them up there? It becomes really interesting when you rank multiple prospects at multiple levels... If your top target is expected to be a 5th rounder, and your next target is expected to be a 2nd rounder... Do you grab the 5th then hope for the 2nd, or do you grab the second, risking that one club might take your top prospect if you leave him on the board a little longer?

I tend to think that for a club like us - geographically and financially disadvantaged - and especially with things like Free Agency skewing the odds even towards your powerhouse clubs at the expense of the little guys, we need to absolutely maximise every little thing to stand a chance at a cup. From my viewpoint, hitting your targets is good, but hitting your targets and extracting every ounce of value along the way is better. It's a risky one, because things like trading back to extract value may well mean you don't hit your targets.

We kinda are the A's in a lot of ways.

Lol. Yep, kinda.

 

[jackess]

So we leaked who we wanted and then got who we wanted. Where’s the harm?

 

[spotthedog1]

So we leaked who we wanted and then got who we wanted. Where’s the harm?

I think the implication is that the club didn't deliberately put the information out there. Generally it'll be one person linked with the operation who shares info under the table.

But we did get who we wanted... this time.

 

[briztoon]

All I can see from his comments are Ely and Tom Berry - no comment on Joyce or Answerth. Gut feel on Ely is that it leaked from AFL House - the fact that we were significantly linked to Curtis Taylor by all and sundry until Ely got invited to the draft is a bit on the nose.

Might take me a little to find it, but I’m positive pie jumped on here Thursday night or Friday morning and mentioned both Joyce and Answerth.

 

[dlanod]

Might take me a little to find it, but I’m positive pie jumped on here Thursday night or Friday morning and mentioned both Joyce and Answerth.

I couldn't find it (I did look in this thread), but I might have skipped over it.

 

[dlanod]

Matt completed a second day phantom for for Fox Sports. Had us taking Joyce with our first pick, matching a bid for McFayden and taking Berry at our fourth pick.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/cou...t/news-story/8d3bb5434217d36c91a3e585c856684e

Two of those were very common picks, regardless of general knowledge. Joyce is our kind of pick, though he picked neither Answerth nor Cameron nor got the ordering right (Berry > Cameron > Joyce). He might have had some inside knowledge or might have gotten a touch lucky but if inside knowledge it was pretty limited.

 

[Gibbo_88]

People on big footy range from watching live games or replays down to just reading the articles post draft. I'd say most people on here are either watching highlights or just looking at the phantom draft and watching some players highlights. I'm surprised at how many people can suggest that we reached or went too early on players. The recruitment team of each club is a pretty big part of the club and employs a lot of people, their income depends on finding players and comparing them against one another. That's not to say that they shouldn't be criticised at times and they do make mistakes. Most people haven't seen most of the top 50 players drafted play a full game yet can somehow say a club got it wrong or should have done it differently before they've even played a senior game blows my mind.

 

[BRAB]

Of course due diligence was done. He was asked how passionate he is for the Lions & he said that he would die for the club, although his preference is to kill for it.

Ely Smith adds so much to our club already.

Can't wait to see his first confirmed kill on live TV

 

[Bicks]

Thomas Berry will be taking Jarrod's former #13 guernsey the same #13 Tom wore at the Rebels and Jarrod will be wearing #7 GWV Rebels reporting.

 

[Nunez]

If the person who runs BL Shitposting is on here - I hope they understand the necessity to make a Ely Smith/Terminator crossover meme.

 

[Suitcase]

People on big footy range from watching live games or replays down to just reading the articles post draft. I'd say most people on here are either watching highlights or just looking at the phantom draft and watching some players highlights. I'm surprised at how many people can suggest that we reached or went too early on players. The recruitment team of each club is a pretty big part of the club and employs a lot of people, their income depends on finding players and comparing them against one another. That's not to say that they shouldn't be criticised at times and they do make mistakes. Most people haven't seen most of the top 50 players drafted play a full game yet can somehow say a club got it wrong or should have done it differently before they've even played a senior game blows my mind.

Tom Doedee is a great example of this. He was taken in the first round by Adelaide, a lot of people had never heard of him and there was a huge uproar about how Adelaide reached for him massively and wasted their first round pick etc etc. He has turned out to be one of the best players in that draft and one of the best intercept defenders in the competition. Adelaide recruiters obviously rated him much higher than the general community and for good reason. People need to have faith in the recruiters, they have been watching these kids on a weekly basis for years before they are drafted.

 

[pauldrc]

Recruiting, especially for a club like us, is so much more than just about talent.

Character, go home factor, team needs, player upside (injured players not able to show full potential/a country/academy player with less development etc) means that we might have someone 10 spots higher on our board than pretty much every other team (especially Vic teams).

Doesn't mean they weren't/aren't the right pick for us, just that we are often in a different position with our picks than everyone else.

Berry jr is a great get, my info originally had him well inside the top 20, it was important for the club and our needs that we drafted him and didn't miss out, so even though we MIGHT have got him later, it would have been too big a risk to take.

We might not have told Smith we were drafting him (even though we invited him) as perhaps our recruiters felt that a slider might fall to us (someone like Duursma - who maybe was our first preference had things played out that way), so best really we don't make promises on that basis anyway.

 

[jackess]

Recruiting, especially for a club like us, is so much more than just about talent.

Character, go home factor, team needs, player upside (injured players not able to show full potential/a country/academy player with less development etc) means that we might have someone 10 spots higher on our board than pretty much every other team (especially Vic teams).

Doesn't mean they weren't/aren't the right pick for us, just that we are often in a different position with our picks than everyone else.

Berry jr is a great get, my info originally had him well inside the top 20, it was important for the club and our needs that we drafted him and didn't miss out, so even though we MIGHT have got him later, it would have been too big a risk to take.

We might not have told Smith we were drafting him (even though we invited him) as perhaps our recruiters felt that a slider might fall to us (someone like Duursma - who maybe was our first preference had things played out that way), so best really we don't make promises on that basis anyway.

We may have also been trying very hard to try and trade up to get Duursma.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

And even if Duursma was our target, Smith might work out better in the end.

 

[pauldrc]

We may have also been trying very hard to try and trade up to get Duursma.

Yes,

Seems like we did try to move up, but didn't have the necessary currency....

And even if Duursma was our target, Smith might work out better in the end.

100% agree. Duursma seems a bit vanilla, very happy with the Smith selection.

 

[Brizzys Squizzy]

And even if Duursma was our target, Smith might work out better in the end.

Correct Joyce or Answerth might be the best of the lot don't need a low or single digit in front of your name as draft number to be successful

 

[spotthedog1]

People on big footy range from watching live games or replays down to just reading the articles post draft. I'd say most people on here are either watching highlights or just looking at the phantom draft and watching some players highlights. I'm surprised at how many people can suggest that we reached or went too early on players. The recruitment team of each club is a pretty big part of the club and employs a lot of people, their income depends on finding players and comparing them against one another. That's not to say that they shouldn't be criticised at times and they do make mistakes. Most people haven't seen most of the top 50 players drafted play a full game yet can somehow say a club got it wrong or should have done it differently before they've even played a senior game blows my mind.

And what do you say to my previous post suggesting that the lack of any other club wanting Ely at the draft would indicate that he wasn't even a backup option for the five clubs before us and one after us? I wasn't basing my suggestion that we reached on my scouting abilities. I know there's plenty of assumption there, but there's also reasonable logic.

 

[POBT]

I find it hard to fault the club's draft strategy. They have to be accountable for each selection they make. For them, the "market" is not much more than a guide. A failed draft selection is a failed draft selection, irrespective of whether the market agrees with you. It might make it better from a PR perspective if you go along with the market and fail but it doesn't help take the club forward.

So, if as a recruiting team, you are held to account based on the draft results, then I'd also be backing in my own assessments rather than trying to guess what the market might do. I'd create a list of every player I liked, in order of preference, and then simply work my way down the list. Ultimately, that's what a "draft board" is.

A lot of the amateur analysis done of the draft relies on almost a totalisator type model. People take every bit of analysis they can find (power rankings, phantom drafts, rumour etc), feed it into whatever their method of analysis is and out pops a "value". It is an OK way to think for the purposes of being a draft spectator but it doesn't help list managers. The "market average" of value means almost nothing when each club makes a selection. All that matters is how you rate the player and, to a lesser extent, how the clubs with a selection after you rate that player. Given clubs now hold their cards close to their chest at draft time, you aren't really going to know what decisions the clubs after you might make. Real time pick trading makes this even more complicated. Therefore, the only remaining piece of evidence left is your own recruiting team's assessment of value.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Must have missed it- how do we know that other clubs weren't interested in drafting Ely with a pick in the 20's ?

 

[BigCat2]

Must have missed it- how do we know that other clubs weren't interested in drafting Ely with a pick in the 20's ?

Good point. He seems very much the type of player that Sydney (pick 25) and Melbourne (pick 27) like to draft.

 

[Gibbo_88]

And what do you say to my previous post suggesting that the lack of any other club wanting Ely at the draft would indicate that he wasn't even a backup option for the five clubs before us and one after us? I wasn't basing my suggestion that we reached on my scouting abilities. I know there's plenty of assumption there, but there's also reasonable logic.

What I said is not directed specifically at you. It just doesn't bother me that no other club wanted him there, I'm sure this type of thing is not uncommon, it just makes a bit of a story. I back our recruiters to make the right call, they would spend a significant amount of time ranking every kid and they've been watching them for years, the rest of us take an interest or at best it is a hobby.

 

[Brett C]

Must have missed it- how do we know that other clubs weren't interested in drafting Ely with a pick in the 20's ?

We don’t but that view doesn’t fit the narrative of some posters that we reached and could have manufactured a trade and still got the same players

 

[ZoBlitz]

The club thought he'd go in the next few picks, if we hadn't taken him.