List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA Thread

[17er]

Where we disagree is that I don't overate the talent in the Academy

Academy kids at present are not the core of the team, yet. Ideally they would be but we still need talent from the Southern states to provide the quality.

Personally I'd like us to have 6 picks in the national draft - 4 in the top 25 being non-academy and 2 academy kids. Still 33% of kids from the Academy but the cream of the crop being from the Southern states

Don't forget that we have not used our 3rd Category B Rookie pick this year, so when it comes to it I'd say your projection will likely become 7 picks. Probably 4 Interstate and 3 Academy, but possibly the other way around. Bailey Scott is the x-factor and could cost a 2nd round pick or he "bails" out and we go for best available. Also, it only takes 1 out of 17 clubs to bid on Koenen or Graham and we have to match it, however, if they slip through to the Rookie Draft it would be just as good.

 

[DrAshy]

I don’t think it would be the worst decision to get the 2 king brothers (our first pick and lynch compensation pick if he leaves). Greatly reduces the go home factor. Also worked out well for the Scott brothers and Brisbane.

If that was the case I would be looking to trade down and gather multiple picks as there appears to be a fair drop off in talent if we are not in the market for a King brother or Rankine after the top few picks (Lukosios, Walsh or Smith)

EDIT: most of the flight risk rumors seem to be coming from Crows Supporters on BigFooty. If Crows don't want to trade up for Rankine then we can auction him off to Port in a couple of years

 

[17er]

I know they changed the rules a couple of years ago to stop the shuffling of picks for points that GWS was doing - you now can only use as many draft picks (for points) as senior list spots you have available on your list

They only needed those few years to do it to turn all those extra concessions into a normal sized squad through shrewd trading and access to 1st round Academy/zone talent. Our problem is that we've only ever had two Academy guys go in the first round, with Weller unable to be kept due to a loophole and Bowes got bid on at #10 by the Swans or else we could conceivably have picked another interstate guy and taken Bowes whenever he was bid at later, although that would have burnt the late pick we used on Scheer. What we want is for Bailey Scott to be bid on and it only costs us 80% of the value to match the bid.

 

[Peel67skin]

Don't forget that we have not used our 3rd Category B Rookie pick this year, so when it comes to it I'd say your projection will likely become 7 picks. Probably 4 Interstate and 3 Academy, but possibly the other way around. Bailey Scott is the x-factor and could cost a 2nd round pick or he "bails" out and we go for best available. Also, it only takes 1 out of 17 clubs to bid on Koenen or Graham and we have to match it, however, if they slip through to the Rookie Draft it would be just as good.

I doubt the 17 club .will bid on Graham and koenan due Vctoria,WA ,SA all have their own NGA academy talent this year to filled their main and rookie list compare to previous year eg Fremantle -Jason Carter , Eagles - Jarrod Cameron , Bulldog -Khamis, geelong f/s- browless etc .As mention by OB11 you need list Spots instead of just point to consider .

 

[17er]

I don’t think it would be the worst decision to get the 2 king brothers (our first pick and lynch compensation pick if he leaves). Greatly reduces the go home factor. Also worked out well for the Scott brothers and Brisbane.

Didn't work out for the Madden brothers, who had to be separated. In hindsight, best that they did.

 

[OB11]

I don’t think it would be the worst decision to get the 2 king brothers (our first pick and lynch compensation pick if he leaves). Greatly reduces the go home factor. Also worked out well for the Scott brothers and Brisbane.

Only problem is that our midfield is downright deplorable - not just relative to the current competition but on a historical level. It simply has to be addressed ASAP

 

[OB11]

What we want is for Bailey Scott to be bid on and it only costs us 80% of the value to match the bid.

What we want is to get our top non-academy picks positioned so that they are used prior to a bid being received for Bailey Scott (IMO need to get picks in the top ~20 to be safe)

 

[Peel67skin]

What we want is to get our top non-academy picks positioned so that they are used prior to a bid being received for Bailey Scott (IMO need to get picks in the top ~20 to be safe)

You want bid come in later then earlier IMO , eg after the first round and priority pick will be the best scenario.

 

[GcSunsfan]

Only problem is that our midfield is downright deplorable - not just relative to the current competition but on a historical level. It simply has to be addressed ASAP

The guys on AFL360 talked about our midfield on the show tonight.

Called our midfield the short people vs the modern day bulls.
Said our guys can only last so long before the opposition starts to manhandle them.
They said our recruiters misread the way the game was going and drafted to many small players


Here's the article

 

[17er]

What we want is to get our top non-academy picks positioned so that they are used prior to a bid being received for Bailey Scott (IMO need to get picks in the top ~20 to be safe)

This is the point where we can't really go past without speculating on Lynch and whatever picks we get from trading. If Lynch goes, I say we double down and try to line up another Draft like 2016 because we already have 7 picks and probably can't even use that many, so if we end up with 10 picks we will need to trade that into what would probably look like 3 top 10s and enough scattered picks to claim Bailey Scott wherever a bid comes in for him and possible matches for other Academy players. The Rookie Draft could be the best place to grab Academy players, but even the media says our best 3 Academy guys are sought after, with their names mentioned on afl.com.au today.

 

[Peel67skin]

This is the point where we can't really go past without speculating on Lynch and whatever picks we get from trading. If Lynch goes, I say we double down and try to line up another Draft like 2016 because we already have 7 picks and probably can't even use that many, so if we end up with 10 picks we will need to trade that into what would probably look like 3 top 10s and enough scattered picks to claim Bailey Scott wherever a bid comes in for him and possible matches for other Academy players. The Rookie Draft could be the best place to grab Academy players, but even the media says our best 3 Academy guys are sought after, with their names mentioned on afl.com.au today.

What you mean by scattered picks ?
If a bid come in after eagles First round pick for Bailey Scott then you got to used Essendon Second Rd pick for Bailey Scott , you can't use two third round point for him .

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...m/news-story/2336f3c1b618638b6f5637bab62676fd

 

[17er]

What you mean by scattered picks ?
If a bid come in after eagles First round pick for Bailey Scott then you got to used Essendon Second Rd pick for Bailey Scott , you can't use two third round point for him .

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...m/news-story/2336f3c1b618638b6f5637bab62676fd

That's my point. You trade those picks again to get as high into the first round as you can get, depending on how many picks you have. Is Lynch going to 2 high first rounders or a bunch of picks? Is he the only player that wants to go? This strategy was part of the reason they doubled down in 2016 because after losing so many first choice players they needed to draft high in low numbers and bring in ready to play trade and free agency targets. As for where Bailey Scott is nominated, there are any number of possibilities, I'm just saying I'd rather be able to match a bid with a few late picks than pay overs.

 

[Peel67skin]

I'm just saying I'd rather be able to match a bid with a few late picks than pay overs.

They change the rule in 2016, a bid come in you got to use your next pick and the left over point will give you another late pick . That is the reason I said a club will not purposely bid on GC academy player if their NGA academy /Fs had a player who is equal talent. Some club will have difficulty delist more than 3 spots on their lists .
Is it better to get one quality top 5 pick than two late first round from Lynch .

Eg Pick 4 Wash
Pick 5 Bailey Smith
Pick 16 chacy Joyce
A bid come in at pick 19 for Bailey Scott
Point 948 - after discount 751
GC next pick 24
Point 785

785 -751= 34 point (left over junk pick )

 

[kreglze]

The guys on AFL360 talked about our midfield on the show tonight.

Called our midfield the short people vs the modern day bulls.
Said our guys can only last so long before the opposition starts to manhandle them.
They said our recruiters misread the way the game was going and drafted to many small players
View attachment 518642 View attachment 518643

Here's the article

This is the sort of analysis that is good. Gives a critical review and backs it up with facts and reasoning.

Hopefully now that Clayton and Ashcroft are out we can identify the new way we want to play and grab players that are bigger bodies. All the more reason I think Brodie should be there he is a bigger body.

 

[17er]

They change the rule in 2016, a bid come in you got to use your next pick and the left over point will give you another late pick . That is the reason I said a club will not purposely bid on GC academy player if their NGA academy /Fs had a player who is equal talent. Some club will have difficulty delist more than 3 spots on their lists .
Is it better to get one quality top 5 pick than two late first round from Lynch .

Eg Pick 4 Wash
Pick 5 Bailey Smith
Pick 16 chacy Joyce
A bid come in at pick 19 for Bailey Scott
Point 948 - after discount 751
GC next pick 24
Point 785

785 -751= 34 point (left over junk pick )

You're missing the point. If the Suns trade up to have 3 top 10 picks, #24 won't be there. Instead, when he does attract a bid there will be enough extra picks to get enough points to match any offer no matter when it comes, which is cheaper than picking him directly. Even using your model, if we could get Scott at #19 for the value of #24 then we are already winning. Equally, if the bid came in and all we had were a couple of 3rd round picks because we traded our 2nd rounders, we'd be getting him cheaper again.

 

[Basssman]

You're missing the point. If the Suns trade up to have 3 top 10 picks, #24 won't be there. Instead, when he does attract a bid there will be enough extra picks to get enough points to match any offer no matter when it comes, which is cheaper than picking him directly. Even using your model, if we could get Scott at #19 for the value of #24 then we are already winning. Equally, if the bid came in and all we had were a couple of 3rd round picks because we traded our 2nd rounders, we'd be getting him cheaper again.

I couldn’t agree more 17er, I think we should try to package up the west coast and potentially Geelong and or Essendon second rounders we have and get another top 10 pick off someone. This draft is very very good but only in the top 8-10 players after that it is like any other year so if we can hit the top 10 again 3 times then get Bailey Scott with our left over junk picks it’s the best possible outcome


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Peel67skin]

You're missing the point. If the Suns trade up to have 3 top 10 picks, #24 won't be there. Instead, when he does attract a bid there will be enough extra picks to get enough points to match any offer no matter when it comes, which is cheaper than picking him directly. Even using your model, if we could get Scott at #19 for the value of #24 then we are already winning. Equally, if the bid came in and all we had were a couple of 3rd round picks because we traded our 2nd rounders, we'd be getting him cheaper again.

I couldn’t agree more 17er, I think we should try to package up the west coast and potentially Geelong and or Essendon second rounders we have and get another top 10 pick off someone. This draft is very very good but only in the top 8-10 players after that it is like any other year so if we can hit the top 10 again 3 times then get Bailey Scott with our left over junk picks it’s the best possible outcome


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

So you will end up with 4 -18 years old to replace Barlow ,Rosa , Lynch and Hall , hardly help balance your overall list. 2016 top 10 pick already take time to come good , what make the same strategy come good this time around .So far Ainsworth is the only one that show something like top 10 pick . Hayward ,Spp , Marshall actually show equivalent standards as Bowes outside top 10 range .

Saad ( get future 2nd from rookie list from VFL Coburg ) ,Tim Kelly(South Fremantle WAFL) Flitsh (Casey VFL), Zac Langdon (WAFL Claremont) ,Luke Ryan (VFL Coburg ), Matt guefi (WAFL Claremont)/ , hartung all is not a top 10 pick.

* A lot of pressure will be on top 10 pick to perform straight away compare to those outside top 10, a club like GC hardly need those type of attention from Victoria media constantly talking about Top 10 pick if they only come good later or injuries ( KK,Brodie , Scrimshaw)

 

[Fat Pizza]

It is fair to say our current midfield is undersized, but we have drafted bigger guys like Scrimshaw, Brodie, Bowes & Ballard to add to that mix. It is just taking time for them to develop. Barlow is also big enough, but through injuries, lack of pace & probably the new coach taking a longer-term view, he hasn't played there much.

 

[Peel67skin]

It is fair to say our current midfield is undersized, but we have drafted bigger guys like Scrimshaw, Brodie, Bowes & Ballard to add to that mix. It is just taking time for them to develop. Barlow is also big enough, but through injuries, lack of pace & probably the new coach taking a longer-term view, he hasn't played there much.

Bigger but not stronger in term of fitness (muscle and Endurance ), a guy like Mitch McGuire playing consistently in NEAFL racking up 20+ over for Canberra leading MVP this season show that how far Brodie and Schrimshaw are behind .

 

[THE_GUN]

The guys on AFL360 talked about our midfield on the show tonight.

Called our midfield the short people vs the modern day bulls.
Said our guys can only last so long before the opposition starts to manhandle them.
They said our recruiters misread the way the game was going and drafted to many small players
View attachment 518642 View attachment 518643

Here's the article

Looks like they have deliberately missed the Richmond midfield that is also full of short people
Lambert (180) Prestia (175) Graham (180) Edwards (182) Houli (180) Short (177) Rioli(180) Castagna (181) Butler (182) Conca (180)
Cotchin (185) Martin (187) Caddy (186) the last 3 are the talls.

 

[Stroppy]

Size less relevant, but you do need some mids that play with real 'force'.
Either strong in the contest or a burst player from stoppages or even a hard hard runner.
Size can help with that but it is not everything.

Another way to put it would be 'hurt factor'. Treloar this year had a lot of hurt factor b/c he ran hard all day.

 

[Ben Drever]

Imagine losing both Lynch and May this year!!

Would there be any way back?
Would set the club back 5 years.

Could only entice 30yr olds on massive coin.

Or draft 18 yr olds.

 

[CanYouFeelTheSunburn]

Imagine losing both Lynch and May this year!!

Would there be any way back?
Would set the club back 5 years.

Could only entice 30yr olds on massive coin.

Or draft 18 yr olds.

Definitely won't lose May this year, it's a possibility for next year though. Remember when hawthorn offered him big coin in 2014 or 2015 can't quite remember but he turned his back on the offer as he wanted to stay the course with us. All we can hope is that he is committed to the club long term but we need to give him a reason to stay!

Don't listen to that twit Tom Browne saying we'll lose both Lynch and May to Collingwood he's got no idea seriously they don't even have the cap space, fitting lynch in for starters will be a struggle given the spuds they have clogging their cap space in Maine and Wells

 

[17er]

So you will end up with 4 -18 years old to replace Barlow ,Rosa , Lynch and Hall , hardly help balance your overall list. 2016 top 10 pick already take time to come good , what make the same strategy come good this time around .So far Ainsworth is the only one that show something like top 10 pick . Hayward ,Spp , Marshall actually show equivalent standards as Bowes outside top 10 range .

Saad ( get future 2nd from rookie list from VFL Coburg ) ,Tim Kelly(South Fremantle WAFL) Flitsh (Casey VFL), Zac Langdon (WAFL Claremont) ,Luke Ryan (VFL Coburg ), Matt guefi (WAFL Claremont)/ , hartung all is not a top 10 pick.

* A lot of pressure will be on top 10 pick to perform straight away compare to those outside top 10, a club like GC hardly need those type of attention from Victoria media constantly talking about Top 10 pick if they only come good later or injuries ( KK,Brodie , Scrimshaw)

You're still missing the point! Drafting high by consolidating a large amount of picks means we can go hard in trades and free agency. There will be close to 10 players traded/delisted, so going for 3 to 4 players in trade week and free agency means there will be enough AFL ready players to cover the 18 year olds. Just like when Ainsworth, Scrimshaw, Brodie and Bowes were covered by Lyons, Witts, Hanley and Barlow.

You're also way off the mark with Bowes. He's developed really well, hardly needing to play NEAFL. The whole point of a rebuild is that you go hard in the offseason for a few years and bring in talent that takes years to build, but they do it together. It's already happening, but the next phase means some tough delistings and further patience with blooding the newbies. Getting games into the young guys this year has been a really bold call by Dew, if somewhat forced by circumstance and injury. He can only continue by testing out the mettle of the cattle on hand to work out who makes the cut. IMHO trading away talented washouts is the best option in order to maximise on bringing in fresh guys and patiently continuing to rebuild until results start becoming more consistent.

 

[Peel67skin]

You're still missing the point! Drafting high by consolidating a large amount of picks means we can go hard in trades and free agency. There will be close to 10 players traded/delisted, so going for 3 to 4 players in trade week and free agency means there will be enough AFL ready players to cover the 18 year olds. Just like when Ainsworth, Scrimshaw, Brodie and Bowes were covered by Lyons, Witts, Hanley and Barlow.

You're also way off the mark with Bowes. He's developed really well, hardly needing to play NEAFL. The whole point of a rebuild is that you go hard in the offseason for a few years and bring in talent that takes years to build, but they do it together. It's already happening, but the next phase means some tough delistings and further patience with blooding the newbies. Getting games into the young guys this year has been a really bold call by Dew, if somewhat forced by circumstance and injury. He can only continue by testing out the mettle of the cattle on hand to work out who makes the cut. IMHO trading away talented washouts is the best option in order to maximise on bringing in fresh guys and patiently continuing to rebuild until results start becoming more consistent.

I gave up to be honest , will enjoy U18 matches tomorrow SA vs Allies and Vic country Vs WA , can't expect anything from this group GC players . NEAFL matches quality compare to VfL and WAFL are pretty ordinary . Not sure about SANFL as I don't follow that much .