List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA Thread

[GcSunsfan]

Cal Twomey has revealed his first round mock draft for 2018

 

[17er]

Twomey also shared the team lists for the U18 National Championships.



Suns Academy player, Dirk Koenen at Centre Half Back will be marking Jack Lukosius, who has been the best Key Forward so far in the Comp. Caleb Graham has been named at Full Forward, bottom ager Connor Budarick joining him in Half Forward Flank/Midfield rotation, while Bailey Scott will play Wing.

Koenen, Graham and Scott have to be Drafted by the Suns, there is just no question. Budarick is already a NEAFL regular and can't be drafted until 2019, but with Allies selection and time in the system, it isn't hard to see him debuting in the AFL within 2 years. Caleb Graham and Dirk Koenen are similar players and fitting them into the same team usually means sending one forward, but it is very good sign to see them both selected in the run-on side at Rep level. You'd help that Koenen has some success on Lukosius, although if it begins to go pearshaped you'd expect Graham to be thrown back to have a go. Scott has been named in the Allies best in the win against Vic Country and narrow loss to Vic Metro.

 

[17er]

Regarding Twomey's Mock Draft, Bailey Smith and Izak Rankine would have to be the Suns targets at #4. The club doesn't have desperate need of KPPs given the current group and two prospects coming through. Ben or Max King are good, but with 2MP already several years ahead why waste a high pick on a player who will need years to develop?

I think Twomey's list has a major flaw in that it can't account for bidding and because he knows this he's fiddled with picks and the order to make a Mock Draft that will be popular rather than accurate. For example, why are North in 5th? He can't be predicting that North will lose out and finish 14th because they have one of the easiest runs of all. If Thomas and Blakey do go first round, what motivation do opposing clubs have to place a bid on a player so low when they already have the next pick?

 

[OB11]

Twomey also shared the team lists for the U18 National Championships.


View attachment 518511
Suns Academy player, Dirk Koenen at Centre Half Back will be marking Jack Lukosius, who has been the best Key Forward so far in the Comp. Caleb Graham has been named at Full Forward, bottom ager Connor Budarick joining him in Half Forward Flank/Midfield rotation, while Bailey Scott will play Wing.

Koenen, Graham and Scott have to be Drafted by the Suns, there is just no question. Budarick is already a NEAFL regular and can't be drafted until 2019, but with Allies selection and time in the system, it isn't hard to see him debuting in the AFL within 2 years. Caleb Graham and Dirk Koenen are similar players and fitting them into the same team usually means sending one forward, but it is very good sign to see them both selected in the run-on side at Rep level. You'd help that Koenen has some success on Lukosius, although if it begins to go pearshaped you'd expect Graham to be thrown back to have a go. Scott has been named in the Allies best in the win against Vic Country and narrow loss to Vic Metro.

There is a question as to whether Koenen needs to be drafted - with available list spots relatively scarce, an abundance of key backs on our list and the kid not really on the national draft radar, odds are that he will be taken in the rookie draft unless he races up draft boards by shutting down Lukosius

 

[OB11]

Regarding Twomey's Mock Draft, Bailey Smith and Izak Rankine would have to be the Suns targets at #4.

I'd be happy to take them both at 4 and 5 if Lynch leaves

Odds are we will have higher picks than that with how we are going

 

[GcSunsfan]

 

[17er]

There is a question as to whether Koenen needs to be drafted - with available list spots relatively scarce, an abundance of key backs on our list and the kid not really on the national draft radar, odds are that he will be taken in the rookie draft unless he races up draft boards by shutting down Lukosius

Good point, however, there is also the prospect that Koenen may have moved past Graham, as appears to have happened with the Allies. Another thing in Koenen's favour is that he's already done a shut down job on No.2 tall forward Ben King in last week's game against Vic Metro, so he's a real chance of actually succeeding or at the very least impressing against Lukosius. If Bailey Scott chooses Geelong or North, these two really need to be considered essential Draftees. Ryan Gilmore and Lachlan McDonald are also presenting strongly.

 

[Basssman]

Regarding Twomey's Mock Draft, Bailey Smith and Izak Rankine would have to be the Suns targets at #4. The club doesn't have desperate need of KPPs given the current group and two prospects coming through. Ben or Max King are good, but with 2MP already several years ahead why waste a high pick on a player who will need years to develop?

I think Twomey's list has a major flaw in that it can't account for bidding and because he knows this he's fiddled with picks and the order to make a Mock Draft that will be popular rather than accurate. For example, why are North in 5th? He can't be predicting that North will lose out and finish 14th because they have one of the easiest runs of all. If Thomas and Blakey do go first round, what motivation do opposing clubs have to place a bid on a player so low when they already have the next pick?

I would really be surprised if the suns picked Rankine, plenty of whispers going around about him being a MAJOR flight risk and he has made it clear he prefers to stay in SA similar to Chad Wingard in his draft year where he straight up told the Giants he will be going home in 2 years if they draft him


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[17er]

I'd be happy to take them both at 4 and 5 if Lynch leaves

Odds are we will have higher picks than that with how we are going

I think this could end up being "Kreuzer Cup" year, with Carlton coveting Lukosius enough to tank against the Suns and Lions. I don't believe the Suns or Lions are interested in losing out, especially since the Lions could get away with having some wins without giving up ladder position. The Saints have had a tough draw and should win more games, while the Dogs are similarly primed to finish with 6 or 7 wins. I predict the Draft order will be:
1. Blues
2. Lions
3. Suns
4. Saints
5. Bulldogs

 

[Peel67skin]

I would really be surprised if the suns picked Rankine, plenty of whispers going around about him being a MAJOR flight risk and he has made it clear he prefers to stay in SA similar to Chad Wingard in his draft year where he straight up told the Giants he will be going home in 2 years if they draft him


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think Bulldog/st Kilda will pick Rankine , Adelaide have many players Bulldog /saint can look at after two year end to do a trade . Doedee, crotch brother .

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

I think this could end up being "Kreuzer Cup" year, with Carlton coveting Lukosius enough to tank against the Suns and Lions. I don't believe the Suns or Lions are interested in losing out, especially since the Lions could get away with having some wins without giving up ladder position. The Saints have had a tough draw and should win more games, while the Dogs are similarly primed to finish with 6 or 7 wins. I predict the Draft order will be:
1. Blues
2. Lions
3. Suns
4. Saints
5. Bulldogs

Lions will want Walsh. Fanatical Lions fan and not against moving north I hear.

 

[OB11]

I would really be surprised if the suns picked Rankine, plenty of whispers going around about him being a MAJOR flight risk and he has made it clear he prefers to stay in SA similar to Chad Wingard in his draft year where he straight up told the Giants he will be going home in 2 years if they draft him


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

If that was the case I would be looking to trade down and gather multiple picks as there appears to be a fair drop off in talent if we are not in the market for a King brother or Rankine after the top few picks (Lukosios, Walsh or Smith)

EDIT: most of the flight risk rumors seem to be coming from Crows Supporters on BigFooty. If Crows don't want to trade up for Rankine then we can auction him off to Port in a couple of years

 

[SunnerSS]

Regarding Twomey's Mock Draft, Bailey Smith and Izak Rankine would have to be the Suns targets at #4. The club doesn't have desperate need of KPPs given the current group and two prospects coming through. Ben or Max King are good, but with 2MP already several years ahead why waste a high pick on a player who will need years to develop?

I think Twomey's list has a major flaw in that it can't account for bidding and because he knows this he's fiddled with picks and the order to make a Mock Draft that will be popular rather than accurate. For example, why are North in 5th? He can't be predicting that North will lose out and finish 14th because they have one of the easiest runs of all. If Thomas and Blakey do go first round, what motivation do opposing clubs have to place a bid on a player so low when they already have the next pick?

He did say north are into 5th because the dogs picked Thomas and north matched the bid

 

[17er]

Lions will want Walsh. Fanatical Lions fan and not against moving north I hear.

I would not be unhappy if he went to them because I couldn't see him being happy with the Suns.

If that was the case I would be looking to trade down and gather multiple picks as there appears to be a fair drop off in talent if we are not in the market for a King brother or Rankine after the top few picks (Lukosios, Walsh or Smith)

EDIT: most of the flight risk rumors seem to be coming from Crows Supporters on BigFooty. If Crows don't want to trade up for Rankine then we can auction him off to Port in a couple of years

Trading back into the middle of the 1st round is a great idea. On the indicative Draft order for this week, the Crows have picks #8, #13 and #19, which could be used to trade up to get Rankine. That said, you would wonder if the Crows could go all in to get the number one pick and get Lukosius.

 

[Peel67skin]

There is a question as to whether Koenen needs to be drafted - with available list spots relatively scarce, an abundance of key backs on our list and the kid not really on the national draft radar, odds are that he will be taken in the rookie draft unless he races up draft boards by shutting down Lukosius

IMO , Graham and Koenan both are rookie pick , if other club willing to pick them up at 60+ pick I am happy to let other club spend time to develop them and l if they exceed expectations can always trade them back .

 

[17er]

He did say north are into 5th because the dogs picked Thomas and north matched the bid

Yeah, that's my point. Same with Blakey. What is the motivation for bidding high on such a player with little to no chance of securing them? I am genuinely asking. We saw Sydney make a bid for Jack Bowes, but was that just to make the Suns use their pick #10. By that logic, wouldn't a bid come a little later, say from the Hawks to force North to use the pick #11.

 

[OB11]

IMO , Graham and Koenan both are rookie pick , if other club willing to pick them up at 60+ pick I am happy to let other club spend time to develop them and l if they exceed expectations can always trade them back .

For pick 2?

 

[Peel67skin]

For pick 2?

Nah, Weller initial pick at 14 , if both perform at a AFL level that worth pick 2 at initial pick of 60+ in three years then I think both are worth it . To Risk or play safe is my question.

 

[OB11]

I would not be unhappy if he went to them because I couldn't see him being happy with the Suns.

Trading back into the middle of the 1st round is a great idea. On the indicative Draft order for this week, the Crows have picks #8, #13 and #19, which could be used to trade up to get Rankine. That said, you would wonder if the Crows could go all in to get the number one pick and get Lukosius.

If we were worried about making every draft pick happy by not selecting them we would be full of kids from the Coast and out of business in a few years.

If Sloane leaves you can add #9 for them as well as FA compo

Suns #4/5 and #30 (Cats pick) for Crows #8 & #9?

 

[OB11]

Nah, Weller initial pick at 14 , if both perform at a AFL level that worth pick 2 at initial pick of 60+ in three years then I think both are worth it . To Risk or play safe is my question.

Was Tom Mitchell pick 14 as well?

Just saying if the price to re-recruit past academy players is pick 2 we are in trouble

 

[Peel67skin]

Was Tom Mitchell pick 14 as well?

Just saying if the price to re-recruit past academy players is pick 2 we are in trouble

That mean GCs don't know how to pick Draftees. Tom Mitchell case is more Sydney salary Cap stuff up then anything , he is a Top 21 pick (F/S) in 2011 ND draft.

 

[17er]

If we were worried about making every draft pick happy by not selecting them we would be full of kids from the Coast and out of business in a few years.

If Sloane leaves you can add #9 for them as well as FA compo

Suns #4/5 and #30 (Cats pick) for Crows #8 & #9?

I'm sure there are measures in place when scoping out a recruit to suss out how they'd feel about being drafted to the Suns. Scott Clayton was pretty forthright about how many hot prospects had laughed in his face and told him they'd be seeking a trade in 2 years if he drafted them. Then there are the pragmatic players who have been realistic about the 50% chance of being recruited outside of metropolitan Melbourne from the beginning, or the even slimmer possibility of remaining in a non-Victorian State or going to the club of their choice.

I know you don't agree with me, but I see the Suns building a list through the Academy and using the Trade/Draft periods to turbocharge the rebuild. With 44 List changes in the last 4 postseasons (14 of those delisted, 30 remaining) there are only 15 players remaining from the initial 5 year list building process. With 9 Academy players on the list (including Weller), that is 20%, the 21 outside recruits from 2014 to 2018 comprise of 7 trade/free agents, 12 interstate Draft picks and 3 interstate rookies.

So you see, there is risk and there is prudence. 30% of recruitment is now Academy based and the Academy is getting stronger each year. I would like to see a trade period like 2016 where 3 quality players wanted to come and a 4th walked in during Free Agency. With 6 Draft picks inside Pick #42 plus pick #76, our position to attack the Draft is already strong, but I think there will be some manoeuvring with trades and live pick trading.

 

[OB11]

I'm sure there are measures in place when scoping out a recruit to suss out how they'd feel about being drafted to the Suns. Scott Clayton was pretty forthright about how many hot prospects had laughed in his face and told him they'd be seeking a trade in 2 years if he drafted them. Then there are the pragmatic players who have been realistic about the 50% chance of being recruited outside of metropolitan Melbourne from the beginning, or the even slimmer possibility of remaining in a non-Victorian State or going to the club of their choice.

I know you don't agree with me, but I see the Suns building a list through the Academy and using the Trade/Draft periods to turbocharge the rebuild. With 44 List changes in the last 4 postseasons (14 of those delisted, 30 remaining) there are only 15 players remaining from the initial 5 year list building process. With 9 Academy players on the list (including Weller), that is 20%, the 21 outside recruits from 2014 to 2018 comprise of 7 trade/free agents, 12 interstate Draft picks and 3 interstate rookies.

So you see, there is risk and there is prudence. 30% of recruitment is now Academy based and the Academy is getting stronger each year. I would like to see a trade period like 2016 where 3 quality players wanted to come and a 4th walked in during Free Agency. With 6 Draft picks inside Pick #42 plus pick #76, our position to attack the Draft is already strong, but I think there will be some manoeuvring with trades and live pick trading.

Where we disagree is that I don't overate the talent in the Academy

Academy kids at present are not the core of the team, yet. Ideally they would be but we still need talent from the Southern states to provide the quality.

Personally I'd like us to have 6 picks in the national draft - 4 in the top 25 being non-academy and 2 academy kids. Still 33% of kids from the Academy but the cream of the crop being from the Southern states

 

[17er]

IMO , Graham and Koenan both are rookie pick , if other club willing to pick them up at 60+ pick I am happy to let other club spend time to develop them and l if they exceed expectations can always trade them back .

The advantage of having highly regarded Academy picks is that they get bids in early rounds and, if you are lucky, you can combine your low picks to go down into the 1st and 2nd round to match their bids. That way you spend your highest pick on the best value player available and pay for your best Academy players with chicken feed.

GWS are masters at it, compiling 2nd and 3rd round draft picks from trading away their washouts and reinvesting them by matching high bids with a 20% discount.

 

[OB11]

The advantage of having highly regarded Academy picks is that they get bids in early rounds and, if you are lucky, you can combine your low picks to go down into the 1st and 2nd round to match their bids. That way you spend your highest pick on the best value player available and pay for your best Academy players with chicken feed.

GWS are masters at it, compiling 2nd and 3rd round draft picks from trading away their washouts and reinvesting them by matching high bids with a 20% discount.

I know they changed the rules a couple of years ago to stop the shuffling of picks for points that GWS was doing - you now can only use as many draft picks (for points) as senior list spots you have available on your list