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List Mgmt. 2018 Draft/Trade/FA Thread

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How?
McGovern for 2 picks in the early 20's is probably over his value. he's not going to fetch you a top 10 pick unless you give something else back.
and
If you want to get pick 1, 2 or 3 you're going to need to offer 7 + melbourne's first (currently 14) + potentially more depending on where Melbourne's first ends up

the scenario at the bottom I agree is probably overs, but it really does depend on how much your club wants Rankine or Lukosius.
Then he stays with us.

He.

Is.

Contracted.

We value him and know what he can deliver. Why the f*** do we just give him away for a shitty deal? It's nonsensical.
 
Then he stays with us.

He.

Is.

Contracted.

We value him and know what he can deliver. Why the f*** do we just give him away for a shitty deal? It's nonsensical.
Pretty sure I've said it elsewhere in the thread, but I think you should keep him. He is contracted and he's obviously a LOT more valuable to Adelaide as a player than what he is worth on the open market. Contracts should mean something, and just because he wants to leave doesn't mean he gets to.
 
Could it be done .

St kilda pick 4 ( after Lynch compo), 63

For GC
Pick 17- 1025 or pick 18 ( 985)
Pick 26 - 729
Pick 41 - 412

GC end up with 2,3,4 , 29 ,38 ,63 ,
St Kilda end up with 17or 18 ,26,41, 57,61
 

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Could it be done .

St kilda pick 4 ( after Lynch compo), 63

For GC
Pick 17- 1025 or pick 18 ( 985)
Pick 26 - 729
Pick 41 - 412

GC end up with 2,3,4 , 29 ,38 ,63 ,
St Kilda end up with 17or 18 ,26,41, 57,61
Yeah, something like that would be advantageous for both clubs. What you have to remember though, is that the Saints are courting Max King, letting him use their facilities to rehab and kissing up to his family. They are a big splash at the Draft type club, even though blind Freddie can see that a loate 1st, early 2nd and early 3rd would set them up for a game changing Draft.
 
Could it be done .

St kilda pick 4 ( after Lynch compo), 63

For GC
Pick 17- 1025 or pick 18 ( 985)
Pick 26 - 729
Pick 41 - 412

GC end up with 2,3,4 , 29 ,38 ,63 ,
St Kilda end up with 17or 18 ,26,41, 57,61
Why would they do that?
 
Let me paraphrase.

"The Suns need more defenders and forwards, but really need more midfielders." Michael Whiting being Captain Obvious
 
Wouldn't do that trade if I were them. If we get 12 PP, 12 + 17 + 26 for pick 4 more likely
I seriously don't understand why you overvalue high picks. Is it because of Clayton's mental trade last year (which would have been genius if the Eagles had finished bottom 4)?

In 2016, Brisbane traded picks #2, #31, #51 and #60 to GWS for picks #3 and #16

That is 3528 points to 3301, which the Lions paid slight overs for because they wanted to get McLuggage and Berry as a matched pair and GWS were obviously going for Timmy Taranto anyway so the loss was worth paying.

You are proposing to basically throw away the West Coast pick which came at such a cost.

The Saints actually have pick #3 is worth 2234 points. Picks #12 and #26 are worth 2024 points, so we'd have to find a third round pick to stitch up the deal.

But I don't like relying on the pick #12 PP, so why not examine getting best value out of the WC pick, which is going to be worth between 985 and 1112 points at the beginning of the trade period. Lets call it 1000. The WC late 1st rounder plus pick #26 plus pick #38 is 1000 + 729 + 446 = 2194, which is short unless WC make it to the GF and lose = exactly 2234 points

A similar deal for Fremantle's pick #4 involving the priority pick and we are off to the races!
#19, #29, #41 = 2013 points for 2034, so maybe toss them worthless #74

Trade deals for wantaways like Hall and some fringe players will set aside enough late capital for Scott, Koenen and Graham.

Lynch, Rosa, Barlow and Rischitelli have vacated 4 senior list spots, which I think should be nicely replaced by picks #2, #3, #4 and #5. Hall and any 2 of Leslie, Kolodjashnij, Lonergan, Nicholls, and Wigg who are out of contract need to raise enough draft capital so as not to put the 2019 1st round pick in danger if we have to match a higher than expected bid for Scott or Koenen.

That leaves 4 Rookie spots, which can be up to 3 Category A or up to 3 Category B depending on whether Heron and Dawson are rated A or B. This means up to 3 mature agers plus an academy boy. Also, there is a possibility of re-rookied players delisted to make enough spots. Dew said between 8 and 10 changes, but later said the club had only made 4 so far, not including Lynch leaving, Rosa retiring or Rischa's delisting.
 
Somehow we have to get off from having Tom Nicholls on our list next year. Has played 45 games in 8 years (0 in last 2 years), is injury prone, not committed to his AFL career (definitely not a 12 month footballer), doesn't strike me as a great club man, and just plain not good - can't win hit outs, can't spread, not competitive and can't dispose of the ball efficiently.

If Witts went down I would be content to go with 2MP or Crossley in the ruck over Nicholls.

Hopefully some other club is silly enough to take him.
 

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I seriously don't understand why you overvalue high picks. Is it because of Clayton's mental trade last year (which would have been genius if the Eagles had finished bottom 4)?

In 2016, Brisbane traded picks #2, #31, #51 and #60 to GWS for picks #3 and #16

That is 3528 points to 3301, which the Lions paid slight overs for because they wanted to get McLuggage and Berry as a matched pair and GWS were obviously going for Timmy Taranto anyway so the loss was worth paying.

You are proposing to basically throw away the West Coast pick which came at such a cost.

The Saints actually have pick #3 is worth 2234 points. Picks #12 and #26 are worth 2024 points, so we'd have to find a third round pick to stitch up the deal.

But I don't like relying on the pick #12 PP, so why not examine getting best value out of the WC pick, which is going to be worth between 985 and 1112 points at the beginning of the trade period. Lets call it 1000. The WC late 1st rounder plus pick #26 plus pick #38 is 1000 + 729 + 446 = 2194, which is short unless WC make it to the GF and lose = exactly 2234 points

A similar deal for Fremantle's pick #4 involving the priority pick and we are off to the races!
#19, #29, #41 = 2013 points for 2034, so maybe toss them worthless #74

Trade deals for wantaways like Hall and some fringe players will set aside enough late capital for Scott, Koenen and Graham.

Lynch, Rosa, Barlow and Rischitelli have vacated 4 senior list spots, which I think should be nicely replaced by picks #2, #3, #4 and #5. Hall and any 2 of Leslie, Kolodjashnij, Lonergan, Nicholls, and Wigg who are out of contract need to raise enough draft capital so as not to put the 2019 1st round pick in danger if we have to match a higher than expected bid for Scott or Koenen.

That leaves 4 Rookie spots, which can be up to 3 Category A or up to 3 Category B depending on whether Heron and Dawson are rated A or B. This means up to 3 mature agers plus an academy boy. Also, there is a possibility of re-rookied players delisted to make enough spots. Dew said between 8 and 10 changes, but later said the club had only made 4 so far, not including Lynch leaving, Rosa retiring or Rischa's delisting.
Is Holman stayed on as Rookie list player or is he been upgraded to senior list like Macpherson ?
 
I seriously don't understand why you overvalue high picks. Is it because of Clayton's mental trade last year (which would have been genius if the Eagles had finished bottom 4)?

In 2016, Brisbane traded picks #2, #31, #51 and #60 to GWS for picks #3 and #16

That is 3528 points to 3301, which the Lions paid slight overs for because they wanted to get McLuggage and Berry as a matched pair and GWS were obviously going for Timmy Taranto anyway so the loss was worth paying.

You are proposing to basically throw away the West Coast pick which came at such a cost.

The Saints actually have pick #3 is worth 2234 points. Picks #12 and #26 are worth 2024 points, so we'd have to find a third round pick to stitch up the deal.

But I don't like relying on the pick #12 PP, so why not examine getting best value out of the WC pick, which is going to be worth between 985 and 1112 points at the beginning of the trade period. Lets call it 1000. The WC late 1st rounder plus pick #26 plus pick #38 is 1000 + 729 + 446 = 2194, which is short unless WC make it to the GF and lose = exactly 2234 points

A similar deal for Fremantle's pick #4 involving the priority pick and we are off to the races!
#19, #29, #41 = 2013 points for 2034, so maybe toss them worthless #74

Trade deals for wantaways like Hall and some fringe players will set aside enough late capital for Scott, Koenen and Graham.

Lynch, Rosa, Barlow and Rischitelli have vacated 4 senior list spots, which I think should be nicely replaced by picks #2, #3, #4 and #5. Hall and any 2 of Leslie, Kolodjashnij, Lonergan, Nicholls, and Wigg who are out of contract need to raise enough draft capital so as not to put the 2019 1st round pick in danger if we have to match a higher than expected bid for Scott or Koenen.

That leaves 4 Rookie spots, which can be up to 3 Category A or up to 3 Category B depending on whether Heron and Dawson are rated A or B. This means up to 3 mature agers plus an academy boy. Also, there is a possibility of re-rookied players delisted to make enough spots. Dew said between 8 and 10 changes, but later said the club had only made 4 so far, not including Lynch leaving, Rosa retiring or Rischa's delisting.
i'm not 'overvaluing picks'. You guys are just overvaluing points - a system only created so there was a fair way for teams to lose picks based on where their academy or father son's were bid on.

a top 5 pick means a top 5 rated junior prospect. one that will likely become an A grade player. they have a very very low rate of failure.
since 2010:

2010: David Swallow, Sam Day, Harley Bennell, Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec
2011: Jonathon Patton, Stephen Coniglio, Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Matt Buntine
2012: Lachie Whitfield, Jonathon O'Rourke, Lachie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas, Jake Stringer
2013: Tom Boyd, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Kade Kolodjashnij
2014: Paddy McCartin, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jarrod Pickett, Jordan De Goey
2015: Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish
2016: Andrew McGrath, Tim Taranto, Hugh McCluggage, Ben Ainsworth, Will Setterfield
2017: Cam Rayner, Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra

*Bolder players have been de-listed
*Green players A graders or best half of their teams first 22 (estimated for those 2016 on)
*Orange lower section of best 22
*Red not best 22 but still on list

That's 7 All Australians, 2 rising stars, 25 first picked players. 5 players that are lower best 22 players, 6 players that aren't best 22 (all except Dom Tyson have been held back by recurrent injury and concussions) and only 2 players in 8 years that have been delisted.
If You want to ONLY compare to pick 4, thats 3 All Australians, 5 first 22 picked, 1 non best 22, 1 delisted and Luke Davies-Uniacke who is developing

Compare that to 19, 29 and 41

2010: Shaun Atley, Scott Lycett, Tom Liberatore
2011: Clay Smith, Alex Forster, Mitch Grigg
2012: Josh Simpson, Tim O'Brien, Mason Wood
2013: Michael Apeness, Rory Lobb, Jake Kolodjashnij
2014: Kyle Langford, Touk Miller, Jack Lonie
2015: Tom Doedee, Alex Morgan, Matthew Flynn
2016: Jarrod Berry, Shai Bolton, Brennan Cox
2017: Jack Higgins, Charlie Spargo, Toby Wooller

0 All Australians, 0 rising stars, 7 first picked 22 players, 5 lower half 22 players, 7 players that are list cloggers and 5 that are already delisted. with Lonie, Flynn, Morgan , and O'Brien not looking like being on lists for much longer.

Top 5 picks are, and always will be worth more than their 'points value' indicates. Obviously you can get good players later in the draft, but it is so much rarer.

Also the only reason that Brisbane traded there was because they got offered essentially pick 16 for a 1 pick downgrade - knowing full well that GWS was desperate to get Andrew McGrath (Which didn't end up happening because Essendon grabbed him) and because they were expecting Essendon to take McCluggage.
 
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i'm not 'overvaluing picks'. You guys are just overvaluing points - a system only created so there was a fair way for teams to lose picks based on where their academy or father son's were bid on.

a top 5 pick means a top 5 rated junior prospect. one that will likely become an A grade player. they have a very very low rate of failure.
since 2010:

2010: David Swallow, Sam Day, Harley Bennell, Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec
2011: Jonathon Patton, Stephen Coniglio, Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Matt Buntine
2012: Lachie Whitfield, Jonathon O'Rourke, Lachie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas, Jake Stringer
2013: Tom Boyd, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Kade Kolodjashnij
2014: Paddy McCartin, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jarrod Pickett, Jordan De Goey
2015: Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish
2016: Andrew McGrath, Tim Taranto, Hugh McCluggage, Ben Ainsworth, Will Setterfield
2017: Cam Rayner, Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra

*Bolder players have been de-listed
*Green players A graders or best half of their teams first 22 (estimated for those 2016 on)
*Orange lower section of best 22
*Red not best 22 but still on list

That's 7 All Australians, 2 rising stars, 25 first picked players. 5 players that are lower best 22 players, 6 players that aren't best 22 (all except Dom Tyson have been held back by recurrent injury and concussions) and only 2 players in 8 years that have been delisted.
If You want to ONLY compare to pick 4, thats 3 All Australians, 5 first 22 picked, 1 non best 22, 1 delisted and Luke Davies-Uniacke who is developing

Compare that to 19, 29 and 41

2010: Shaun Atley, Scott Lycett, Tom Liberatore
2011: Clay Smith, Alex Forster, Mitch Grigg
2012: Josh Simpson, Tim O'Brien, Mason Wood
2013: Michael Apeness, Rory Lobb, Jake Kolodjashnij
2014: Kyle Langford, Touk Miller, Jack Lonie
2015: Tom Doedee, Alex Morgan, Matthew Flynn
2016: Jarrod Berry, Shai Bolton, Brennan Cox
2017: Jack Higgins, Charlie Spargo, Toby Wooller

0 All Australians, 0 rising stars, 7 first picked 22 players, 5 lower half 22 players, 7 players that are list cloggers and 5 that are already delisted. with Lonie, Flynn, Morgan , and O'Brien not looking like being on lists for much longer.

Top 5 picks are, and always will be worth more than their 'points value' indicates. Obviously you can get good players later in the draft, but it is so much rarer.

Also the only reason that Brisbane traded there was because they got offered essentially pick 16 for a 1 pick downgrade - knowing full well that GWS was desperate to get Andrew McGrath (Which didn't end up happening because Essendon grabbed him)
Excellent post , The class usually comes in the top 5 and can be some in the top 20 but after that its like finding a needle in a hay stack
 
I'd say jake Lloyd will get the extra money he was looking for and stay now

 
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Why would they do that?

In general this year, I would be happy if we tried to bundle and move up. Need some A grade young talent not just more young talent. Especially if we throw a PP in the mix, that is a lot of picks.

In the case of the Saints, they don't have 2nd or 3rd rounders this year and might need some later picks to get deals done. That Eagles pick plus an end of 1st round priority pick would be ripe for a trade up.
 
i'm not 'overvaluing picks'. You guys are just overvaluing points - a system only created so there was a fair way for teams to lose picks based on where their academy or father son's were bid on.

a top 5 pick means a top 5 rated junior prospect. one that will likely become an A grade player. they have a very very low rate of failure.
since 2010:

2010: David Swallow, Sam Day, Harley Bennell, Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec
2011: Jonathon Patton, Stephen Coniglio, Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Matt Buntine
2012: Lachie Whitfield, Jonathon O'Rourke, Lachie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas, Jake Stringer
2013: Tom Boyd, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Kade Kolodjashnij
2014: Paddy McCartin, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jarrod Pickett, Jordan De Goey
2015: Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish
2016: Andrew McGrath, Tim Taranto, Hugh McCluggage, Ben Ainsworth, Will Setterfield
2017: Cam Rayner, Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra

*Bolder players have been de-listed
*Green players A graders or best half of their teams first 22 (estimated for those 2016 on)
*Orange lower section of best 22
*Red not best 22 but still on list

That's 7 All Australians, 2 rising stars, 25 first picked players. 5 players that are lower best 22 players, 6 players that aren't best 22 (all except Dom Tyson have been held back by recurrent injury and concussions) and only 2 players in 8 years that have been delisted.
If You want to ONLY compare to pick 4, thats 3 All Australians, 5 first 22 picked, 1 non best 22, 1 delisted and Luke Davies-Uniacke who is developing

Compare that to 19, 29 and 41

2010: Shaun Atley, Scott Lycett, Tom Liberatore
2011: Clay Smith, Alex Forster, Mitch Grigg
2012: Josh Simpson, Tim O'Brien, Mason Wood
2013: Michael Apeness, Rory Lobb, Jake Kolodjashnij
2014: Kyle Langford, Touk Miller, Jack Lonie
2015: Tom Doedee, Alex Morgan, Matthew Flynn
2016: Jarrod Berry, Shai Bolton, Brennan Cox
2017: Jack Higgins, Charlie Spargo, Toby Wooller

0 All Australians, 0 rising stars, 7 first picked 22 players, 5 lower half 22 players, 7 players that are list cloggers and 5 that are already delisted. with Lonie, Flynn, Morgan , and O'Brien not looking like being on lists for much longer.

Top 5 picks are, and always will be worth more than their 'points value' indicates. Obviously you can get good players later in the draft, but it is so much rarer.

Also the only reason that Brisbane traded there was because they got offered essentially pick 16 for a 1 pick downgrade - knowing full well that GWS was desperate to get Andrew McGrath (Which didn't end up happening because Essendon grabbed him)
2010 draft

You can pick all this players at pick 19

2010: pick 24 Jamie Cripps , pick 26 Jack Darling ,

pick 29
pick 29 Scott Lycett , pick 33 Jeremy Howe , pick 40 Luke Parker ,
pick 41
pick 45 Alex Fasolo , pick 53 Tom McDonald ,pick 61 Jarred Lyons , pick 66 Paul puopolo , Pick 76 Paul Seedman.

* You got the power to choose the right players, if they are available at your pick .
 
Excellent post , The class usually comes in the top 5 and can be some in the top 20 but after that its like finding a needle in a hay stack
Graham , Jayden Short , Nathan Broad said Hello .
 
2010 draft

You can pick all this players at pick 19

2010: pick 24 Jamie Cripps , pick 26 Jack Darling ,

pick 29
pick 29 Scott Lycett , pick 33 Jeremy Howe , pick 40 Luke Parker ,
pick 41
pick 45 Alex Fasolo , pick 53 Tom McDonald ,pick 61 Jarred Lyons , pick 66 Paul puopolo , Pick 76 Paul Seedman.

* You got the power to choose the right player , if they are available at your pick .
This logic works completely against you. If you have any of the first 18 picks of the draft you could also have taken those players. there's no guarantee with drafting, but having a higher pick means you have first dibs at the players.
 
i'm not 'overvaluing picks'. You guys are just overvaluing points - a system only created so there was a fair way for teams to lose picks based on where their academy or father son's were bid on.

a top 5 pick means a top 5 rated junior prospect. one that will likely become an A grade player. they have a very very low rate of failure.
since 2010:

2010: David Swallow, Sam Day, Harley Bennell, Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec
2011: Jonathon Patton, Stephen Coniglio, Dom Tyson, Will Hoskin-Elliot, Matt Buntine
2012: Lachie Whitfield, Jonathon O'Rourke, Lachie Plowman, Jimmy Toumpas, Jake Stringer
2013: Tom Boyd, Josh Kelly, Jack Billings, Marcus Bontempelli, Kade Kolodjashnij
2014: Paddy McCartin, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Jarrod Pickett, Jordan De Goey
2015: Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache, Callum Mills, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish
2016: Andrew McGrath, Tim Taranto, Hugh McCluggage, Ben Ainsworth, Will Setterfield
2017: Cam Rayner, Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra

*Bolder players have been de-listed
*Green players A graders or best half of their teams first 22 (estimated for those 2016 on)
*Orange lower section of best 22
*Red not best 22 but still on list

That's 7 All Australians, 2 rising stars, 25 first picked players. 5 players that are lower best 22 players, 6 players that aren't best 22 (all except Dom Tyson have been held back by recurrent injury and concussions) and only 2 players in 8 years that have been delisted.
If You want to ONLY compare to pick 4, thats 3 All Australians, 5 first 22 picked, 1 non best 22, 1 delisted and Luke Davies-Uniacke who is developing

Compare that to 19, 29 and 41

2010: Shaun Atley, Scott Lycett, Tom Liberatore
2011: Clay Smith, Alex Forster, Mitch Grigg
2012: Josh Simpson, Tim O'Brien, Mason Wood
2013: Michael Apeness, Rory Lobb, Jake Kolodjashnij
2014: Kyle Langford, Touk Miller, Jack Lonie
2015: Tom Doedee, Alex Morgan, Matthew Flynn
2016: Jarrod Berry, Shai Bolton, Brennan Cox
2017: Jack Higgins, Charlie Spargo, Toby Wooller

0 All Australians, 0 rising stars, 7 first picked 22 players, 5 lower half 22 players, 7 players that are list cloggers and 5 that are already delisted. with Lonie, Flynn, Morgan , and O'Brien not looking like being on lists for much longer.

Top 5 picks are, and always will be worth more than their 'points value' indicates. Obviously you can get good players later in the draft, but it is so much rarer.

Also the only reason that Brisbane traded there was because they got offered essentially pick 16 for a 1 pick downgrade - knowing full well that GWS was desperate to get Andrew McGrath (Which didn't end up happening because Essendon grabbed him)

I begin to see now where you are coming from and appreciate the work you've put into the reply. I have used similar arguments to show why the Weller Trade was actually a smart trade given how high picks can also flame out. You're being kind to top 5 picks with your ratings here, but as it suits your argument I can see why you've made these choices.

My point is that the Suns can get another 4 picks in the Top 10, probably even better placed this time, while you are suggesting trades that disadvantage the Suns. We are both aiming at the same goal, I'm just aiming ambitiously and you are paying with cynical coin because we never seem to get the best of these deals. We'll likely see a result somewhere in the middle, so I'm happy to say your prediction is baseline realistic and mine is optimistically ambitious.

It would be an interesting exercise to give a points value range based on the kind of metrics you are using. I don't have that kind of time, but if the risk factors and player ratings were calculated I wonder how far apart the point charts would be. Your argument is that high picks would be worth more, but I reckon it comes down to the motivations of the trade partners. The O'Mearas and Lynches of Suns history make our club's record look ordinary. I just want to be able to hit this year's trade period with everything we've got and absolutely dominate proceedings.

Your last sentence is different to what I've read and heard as it is pretty widely documented that McGrath was always going first while Brisbane wanted the boys from North Ballarat as a package.
 
This logic works completely against you. If you have any of the first 18 picks of the draft you could also have taken those players. there's no guarantee with drafting, but having a higher pick means you have first dibs at the players.
But Giving up a top 5 pick , could also set you up if you pick the right players available .
I could have pick Jack Darling at pick 19 , Luke Parker at pick 29 and Lyons/puopolo at pick 41 and gave away pick 4 GAff , Sam Day, Swallow , bennell.
 
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