Prediction 2018, Experience and the chase for success

So, with a bit of a look at our list, I've noticed just how many of our players are below milestones...but are thus also approaching them.

Obviously this is predicated on a lack of injuries to the names I'm mentioning....but.

Currently, we have 11 players with 100+ games on the list. Of those, 5 are not best-22 fixtures and 4 will probably be at other clubs in 2016. (One is also Melksham).

I think 2019 is when the window really opens to strike, based on games of experience in our current list.

100-game landmark in 2017
Bugg
Jetta

50-game landmark in 2017
Hogan
Kennedy
Frost
Brayshaw
Salem
vandenBerg (depending on this weekend)

100-game landmark in 2018
Gawn
Tyson
Viney

50-game landmark in 2018
Harmes
Stretch
Hunt
Oscar
Petracca
Oliver

In short, 2018 is when the scales will really start to tip in terms of our on-field experience. From there is the contention window I think.
 

rhaz

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I am slightly concerned that we'll plateau next year and supporters/media will jump on us for not making the finals - we could even fall back if Collingwood/St Kilda/Richmond improve.

It just continually gets missed that we have a shitload of development left and have an incredibly young list - above is great context of that.
 
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I am slightly concerned that we'll plateau next year and supporters/media will jump on us for not making the finals - we could even fall back if Collingwood/St Kilda/Richmond improve.

It just continually gets missed that we have a shitload of development left and have an incredibly young list - above is great context of that.

It's very clearly been ignored this week, getting ahead of ourselves and being big headed has been the consensus of our performance against Carlton, where as it was really no different to any other "down game" we've had this year, where it was very clear early on that we weren't on our game both mentally and physically on the back of a very strong week or two, as is common from very young teams.
 

fushy

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Found a picture of Viney at 100 Games.

ZYLtjUK.jpg
 
It's very clearly been ignored this week, getting ahead of ourselves and being big headed has been the consensus of our performance against Carlton, where as it was really no different to any other "down game" we've had this year, where it was very clear early on that we weren't on our game both mentally and physically on the back of a very strong week or two, as is common from very young teams.
Whilst we were horrible on the weekend, we were certainly victims of the fact the media and the footy world pumped us up for a finals birth when realistically, as good as it would have been, we are not ready and I doubt anyone at the club would have expected at the start of the year, we'd be playing finals.
 
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Another pre season and an extended run at it for Oliver, Trac, Brayshaw and Salem will definitely help. They all show flashes of brilliance but need to develop their endurance. They all have the hardness, skills and footy smarts to be great, but all need to build their tanks.

I hope Kennedy comes on even more next year - all his career highs are from this year and his best form was in the first half so hopefully he'll be able to carry that form further through the season. I think forward pressure and limiting opponent rebound 50's is an area of our game we can definitely improve so I think Kennedy playing more often and consistently will help.
 
This is the real problem with the nuke rebuild option: there's always hope around the corner but so much can happen in between that it means you may never get there.

Having said that, it seems the consensus is our list is better now than it was in any of the other seven/eight rebuilds.

I used to be scared by questions like 'what happens when Vince retires?' but I think we have the cattle to cover him. Even Jonesy, from a player point of view (not necessarily from a leadership/heart and soul point of view, although Viney is a great protege).
 
This is the real problem with the nuke rebuild option: there's always hope around the corner but so much can happen in between that it means you may never get there.

Having said that, it seems the consensus is our list is better now than it was in any of the other seven/eight rebuilds.

I used to be scared by questions like 'what happens when Vince retires?' but I think we have the cattle to cover him. Even Jonesy, from a player point of view (not necessarily from a leadership/heart and soul point of view, although Viney is a great protege).

Viney is the next Selwood of the AFL from a leadership perspective. The commentators are hard as rocks for him already; he'll just get a bigger profile once he gets the captaincy.

He's clearly heir apparent. Jonesy hits his 300 circa mid-2020 assuming no major injuries (touch wood), by then he'll be 32. By my count he'll be the club's games record holder by the end of 2020 as well. Hands over the captaincy then to Jack who leads the charge and tries to carry Jonesy to a flag at 33 for the fairytale.
 
He's clearly heir apparent. Jonesy hits his 300 circa mid-2020 assuming no major injuries (touch wood), by then he'll be 32. By my count he'll be the club's games record holder by the end of 2020 as well. Hands over the captaincy then to Jack who leads the charge and tries to carry Jonesy to a flag at 33 for the fairytale.

Got it all figured out, eh?
 
Viney is the next Selwood of the AFL from a leadership perspective. The commentators are hard as rocks for him already; he'll just get a bigger profile once he gets the captaincy.

He's clearly heir apparent. Jonesy hits his 300 circa mid-2020 assuming no major injuries (touch wood), by then he'll be 32. By my count he'll be the club's games record holder by the end of 2020 as well. Hands over the captaincy then to Jack who leads the charge and tries to carry Jonesy to a flag at 33 for the fairytale.
This fits with my plans to win the lottery in 2019 and then make it to Tokyo 2020.
 
Viney is the next Selwood of the AFL from a leadership perspective. The commentators are hard as rocks for him already; he'll just get a bigger profile once he gets the captaincy.

He's clearly heir apparent. Jonesy hits his 300 circa mid-2020 assuming no major injuries (touch wood), by then he'll be 32. By my count he'll be the club's games record holder by the end of 2020 as well. Hands over the captaincy then to Jack who leads the charge and tries to carry Jonesy to a flag at 33 for the fairytale.

But Jonesy will already have two flags by 2020! :eek: :rainbow:
 

Topkent

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Yep. Don't care if we finish 8th next year and lose to everyone above us but beat everyone below us.

Really? I'd much prefer if we could beat the Sydney and Geelongs of the world next year and drop a couple we shouldn't .. hell all of the top teams lose games they shouldn't but you need to be able to compete with the big boys

Also I don't understand why people disregard the saints every season, they are gonna finish 2 games in front of us most likely.. they are slightly ahead in terms of experience on their rebuild
 
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Really? I'd much prefer if we could beat the Sydney and Geelongs of the world next year and drop a couple we shouldn't .. hell all of the top teams lose games they shouldn't but you need to be able to compete with the big boys

Also I don't understand why people disregard the saints every season, they are gonna finish 2 games in front of us most likely.. they are slightly ahead in terms of experience on their rebuild

Losing to teams like Carlton and Essendon is a sign of a mental weakness. Losing to clubs like Sydney and Geelong next year is something I'd expect as they should still be ahead of us. In reality it is very unlikely we win every 'should win' game next year and lose every 'very difficult' fixture, but the fact that we've lost to both Essendon and Carlton this year pisses me off, even though we have definitely improved etc it is extremely frustrating to do it twice.
 

Topkent

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Losing to teams like Carlton and Essendon is a sign of a mental weakness. Losing to clubs like Sydney and Geelong next year is something I'd expect as they should still be ahead of us. In reality it is very unlikely we win every 'should win' game next year and lose every 'very difficult' fixture, but the fact that we've lost to both Essendon and Carlton this year pisses me off, even though we have definitely improved etc it is extremely frustrating to do it twice.

Agree and it's a habit that the club needs to get rid of because it's been happening for too long but that's young teams
The carlton game was worse than Essendon because we had something to play for and I'm sure the coaching staff would have drilled that into them .. or maybe they didn't who knows
 

Sprout

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I am slightly concerned that we'll plateau next year and supporters/media will jump on us for not making the finals - we could even fall back if Collingwood/St Kilda/Richmond improve.

It just continually gets missed that we have a shitload of development left and have an incredibly young list - above is great context of that.
Those who truly know and understand the constitution of the list will be okay with it.

2018 is the year though. Finals will have to be a non-negotiable and I think that's when we'll do it. I'll be happily surprised if it's next year.

I agree that the aim next year has to be beating the teams we should beat and being able to handle the favourite tag. That will be a positive step in the evolution of the team that is yet to be taken.

I hope Bernie is still around when the side makes its first final series. He really deserves that.
 
Even if we beat Geelong this week we're well off the pace, but everyone involved with the MFC is going to have to cop a summer of knowing that if we hadn't lost to Carlton, Essendon, and Port, and if we'd won at least one game v St Kilda, we'd have comfortably made the finals, rather than just needing another goal v North to have made it.
 

Tempy Tiger

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The risk to our improvement next year, as per every other club in the AFL, will be injuries. We've had an absolute dream run this year. All our key guys have pretty much got through unscathed. A long term injury to Gawn or Hogan, and maybe to a lesser extent to TMAC or Viney would really hurt us. I know that it's no different to the strongest sides ie Hawks losing Roughie has been very tough on them, if Sydney lost Franklin they'd be in strife. I think though that it's not just a given we will automatically play finals in 2017. God I hope we do though. It will be important for Goodwin's confidence and club stability post Roos.

And re the captaincy, I wouldn't be surprised if Nate hands it over to Viney at the end of next season. I reckon it weighs heavily on him.
 

Demons Advocate

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Good Thread!!

I've been thinking this for a while but haven't been bothered to check out individual games played per player.

We will stagnate next year I reckon and maybe even go down a few spots on the ladder. Still a very young team but I think most people will tip us to play finals next year. More teams will consider us a serious threat and put more work into us pre-match.

I won't be too upset with missing finals next year as long as we show signs of improvement still internally (though it will be a frustrating year!)

2018 is the year I expect us to make it, all things continuing on this current trajectory. If we do go backwards next year and the external pressure heats up again it will tell us a lot about the group's fortitude.
 
This is the real problem with the nuke rebuild option: there's always hope around the corner but so much can happen in between that it means you may never get there.

Having said that, it seems the consensus is our list is better now than it was in any of the other seven/eight rebuilds.

I used to be scared by questions like 'what happens when Vince retires?' but I think we have the cattle to cover him. Even Jonesy, from a player point of view (not necessarily from a leadership/heart and soul point of view, although Viney is a great protege).
Great post.

We have a bit of depth now so those retirements won't hurt as much as I thought they might have 1-2 years ago.
I just hope we come good and have some real success while Jonesy is still around and a vital part of it.
 
The risk to our improvement next year, as per every other club in the AFL, will be injuries. We've had an absolute dream run this year. All our key guys have pretty much got through unscathed. A long term injury to Gawn or Hogan, and maybe to a lesser extent to TMAC or Viney would really hurt us. I know that it's no different to the strongest sides ie Hawks losing Roughie has been very tough on them, if Sydney lost Franklin they'd be in strife. I think though that it's not just a given we will automatically play finals in 2017. God I hope we do though. It will be important for Goodwin's confidence and club stability post Roos.

And re the captaincy, I wouldn't be surprised if Nate hands it over to Viney at the end of next season. I reckon it weighs heavily on him.
Well said.

Although I disagree with the captaincy thing and Jonesy.
I think he loves it. And I would love to know how he is thought of amongst many of the competitions other captains.
I feel he would have earned a lot of respect through being our best player and a real battler through our darkest years, most would be rapt to see him have some success.
 
The idea that we'll go down the ladder next year makes...not a lot of sense. Were poised like the Bulldogs at the end of 2014, so much upside to our squad. Even with injuries in 2016 the Dogs have gone up the ladder because of their scope for growth and their younger players having more games in them, and more importantly more games in them together.
 
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