Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions

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Post JLT revision

1. Sydney
2. Richmond
3. Melbourne
4. Adelaide
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Geelong
7. Essendon
8. Hawthorn

9. GWS
10. Port Adelaide
11. St.Kilda
12. Collingwood
13. Carlton
14. Gold Coast
15. Brisbane
16. West Coast
17. Fremantle
18. North Melbourne

I think you are seriously underrating port.
 
1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Adelaide
4. Geelong
5. Richmond
6. Melbourne
7. Essendon
8. Fremantle
9. Port
10. West Coast
11. Hawthorn
12. Footscray
13. Collingwood
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. North Melbourne
18. Gold Coast
 
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1. Sydney
2. Adelaide
3. GWS
4. Geelong
5. Richmond
6. Melbourne
7. Port Adelaide
8. Essendon
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Hawthorn
11. Collingwood
12. St Kilda
13. Freo
14. West Coast
15. Gold Coast
16. Carlton
17. Brisbane
18. North Melbourne
 

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I think you are seriously underrating port.

Not sold on the impact of any of their 'star' recruits. 3 very inconsistent footballers joining a very inconsistent side. I won't be fully surprised if they make the 8 of course, because the potential is there. Just unconvinced it will automatically make them a contender.
 
1. GWS
2. Geelong
3. Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. Melbourne
6. Port Adelaide
7. Richmond
8. Essendon

9. Hawthorn
10. St Kilda
11. Western Bulldogs
12. Fremantle
13. West Coast
14. Carlton
15. Brisbane
16. Collingwood
17. Gold Coast
18. North Melbourne
 
One last crack:

1. Richmond
2. Sydney
3. Port Adelaide
4. Adelaide
5. GWS
6. Melbourne
7. Geelong
8. Essendon

9. Western Bulldogs
10. St Kilda
11. Hawthorn
12. Collingwood
13. West Coast
14. Fremantle
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. North Melbourne
 
Post JLT.

1. GWS*
2. Adelaide
3. Melbourne**
4. Sydney**
5. Richmond**
6. Geelong**
7. Port Adelaide
8. Hawthorn

9. Western Bulldogs
10. St Kilda
11. Essendon
12. Collingwood
13. West Coast
14. Fremantle
15. North Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. Carlton

* Assuming JLT wasn't a flash in the pan and they have in fact embraced 2 way running and team defence properly
** Seperated by 1 game and % only
 
1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Adelaide
4. Richmond
5. Bulldogs
6. Port Adelaide
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
-----------------------
9. Geelong
10. Hawthorn
11. St Kilda
12. West Coast
13. Collingwood
14. Fremantle
15. Brisbane
16. Carlton
17. Gold Coast
18. North Melbourne
 
post JLT/ pre round 1:

SYDNEY
PORT ADELAIDE
MELBOURNE
RICHMOND
ADELAIDE
WESTERN BULLDOGS
GWS
FREMANTLE
---------------------------
ESSENDON
HAWTHORN
GEELONG
ST KILDA
WEST COAST
CARLTON
COLLINGWOOD
BRISBANE
GOLD COAST
NORTH MELBOURNE

GRAND FINAL:
SYDNEY VS. PORT ADELAIDE. Swans win.

BROWNLOW:
NAT FYFE (FREMANTLE)

COLEMAN:
LANCE FRANKLIN (SYDNEY)

RISING STAR:
ANDREW BRAYSHAW (FREMANTLE)
 
1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Port Adelaide
4. Richmond
5. Melbourne
6. Adelaide
7. Geelong
8. Essendon

9. Footscray
10. Collingwood
11. Fremantle
12. GCS
13. Hawthorn
14. St Kilda
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. WCE
18. North Melbourne
 

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Just unconvinced by the WA clubs unfortunately. No foreseeable home ground advantage this season and depth of both sides is a worry. Don't mind the Dockers. Just think next season could be a more realistic start to their climb.
You don't reckon 60 000 fans, an incredible sound and lighting system or home ground umpiring will provide any advantage?
West Coast have shown they struggle moving the web to wider grounds but still I don't see the new dimensions taking more than a few weeks to become familiar.
Both teams have spent the entire preseason training on replica size and shape grounds, Fremantle play 4 of their first 6 games there and West Coast play 5 of 7.
There are heaps of reasons why both teams could be poor this year but lack of homeground advantage is some fingernail deep analysis.
 
GWS
SYDNEY
ADELAIDE
GEELONG
RICHMOND
PORT
HAWTHORN
ESSENDON
---------------------------
WEST COAST
WESTERN BULLDOGS
MELBOURNE
ST KILDA
GOLD COAST
COLLINGWOOD
FREMANTLE
CARLTON
BRISBANE
NORTH
 
Don't agree with these calls of the WA teams not having a home ground advantage this year. It's more about the support from the crowd and the impact that has on the players and umpires than the dimensions of the ground. And there'll be 20,000 more of them this year. That said, I haven't rated them very highly this year, but that's due to the state of their lists.

My final crack at it before the real stuff starts:

1. GWS
2. Adelaide
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
5. Sydney
6. Melbourne
7. Port Adelaide
8. Essendon
------------------
9. Western
10. Hawthorn
11. Collingwood
12. St Kilda
13. Fremantle
14. West Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast
 
Final 2018 Prediction:

1. Adelaide (P)
2. Sydney
3. Richmond
4. GWS (R)
5. Geelong
6. Melbourne
7. Port Adelaide
8. Western Bulldogs
----------------------------------
9. Essendon
10. St. Kilda
11. Hawthorn
12. Fremantle
13. West Coast
14. Brisbane
15. Collingwood
16. Carlton
17. Gold Coast
18. North Melbourne

2018 Finals:

Week 1 - Qualifying / Elimination Finals:

ADEL def. GWS
GEEL def. WB
MELB def. PORT
SYD def. RICH

Week 2 - Semi Finals:

GWS
def. GEEL
RICH def. MELB

Week 3 - Preliminary Finals:

ADEL def. RICH
SYD def by. GWS

Week 4 - Grand Final:

ADEL
def. GWS

Awards:

Premiers: ADEL (Win by 5 points)
Brownlow: Josh Kelly (GWS)
Coleman: Lance Franklin (SYD)
Norm Smith: Matt Crouch (ADEL)
Rising Star: Cam Rayner (BRIS)
 
Final one before the season starts:
  1. Geelong
  2. GWS (P)
  3. Adelaide
  4. Sydney
  5. Melbourne
  6. Port Adelaide
  7. Richmond
  8. Essendon
  9. Western Bulldogs
  10. Collingwood
  11. Brisbane
  12. Hawthorn
  13. Gold Coast
  14. St Kilda
  15. West Coast
  16. Carlton
  17. North Melbourne
  18. Fremantle
 
SPOILER: Traditional same top eight, with only West Coast missing and Melbourne in. In fact it's basically the 2017 ladder again.

1. Richmond Tigers
2. Geelong Cats
3. Sydney Swans
4. Greater Western Sydney Giants
5. Melbourne Demons
6. Adelaide Crows
7. Port Adelaide Power
8. Essendon Bombers

9. Hawthorn Hawks
10, Collingwood Magpies
11. West Coast Eagles
12. St Kilda Saints
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Carlton Blues
15. Gold Coast Suns
16. Fremantle Dockers
17. Brisbane Lions
18. North Melbourne

Some points:
  • Tigers and Cats to dominate the H&A season winning 18 and 17 games respectively. Richmond's fast, tough game style is very hard to shut down and so I sense a continuation of form. Ablett will play 20 games for the Cats and send them into finals as serious contenders, as opposed to previous seasons.
  • Sydney and GWS to continue their typical great but not dominant seasons.
  • Melbourne won't always be amazing but they'll win games and so I think they will push top four.
  • Adelaide and Port Adelaide will both dominate at home and struggle away. Whilst I think the Crows have a strong list and a great coaching team, I predict a dip in form as opposed to 2017 form. Port Adelaide may improve but it won't be off the back of their new recruits.
  • Essendon and Hawthorn you can flip a coin for. I've gone with Essendon as they are a more balanced team with more on the line. Their fast, attacking style will see them return to September again. Hawthorn will play more consistently than last year but they will still show signs of real weakness.
  • Collingwood, St Kilda and the Bulldogs will produce much the same as last year. Occasional signs of brilliance but countered by the more often bad games. The Dogs I had in the top eight a few weeks ago but LTI's to Morris, Adams and Picken has me worrying dearly.
  • West Coast will drop but not too severely. They'll push the eight but ultimately fall short because of a slow start to the year.
  • Carlton will improve despite Gibbs and Docherty playing no part in their year. They'll be competitive every game and won't get thrashed. Gold Coast look to have improved under Dew defensively and so more wins than expected will come.
  • I rate Fremantle's talent very highly and I have nothing against them, but I have a bad feeling they aren't going to improve under Ross The Boss. I predict another underwhelming year that may be met with a spoon race.
  • Brisbane will improve but without winning too many more games, the year will be aimed at growing the likes of their under 22's.
  • North Melbourne I want to put higher because they have good players but Brad Scott is ass and they don't really have any A-grade game changers (in my opinion). Tough slog ahead despite being competitive in most if not all games.

Richmond def GWS Giants
Geelong def Sydney Swans
Melbourne def by Essendon
Adelaide
def Port Adelaide

GWS Giants def Essendon
Sydney Swans def Adelaide

Richmond def by Sydney Swans
Geelong
def GWS Giants

Geelong def by Sydney Swans (3rd place premierships continue to flow)
 
At the end of H&A

Adelaide
GWS
Port Adelaide
Richmond

Sydney
Geelong
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne

Essendon
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Fremantle

West Coast
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Carlton

I think I might drop everyone's predictions in this thread plus all the media "Experts" into a spreadsheet and set up a running prediction accuracy table to determine at the end of the season who was the closest overall.
 
Adelaide
Geelong
Greater Western Sydney
Richmond
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Collingwood
-----------------------------------------
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Fremantle
West Coast
St. Kilda
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Melbourne

PREMIERS: Adelaide Crows
Brownlow: Nat Fyfe
Coleman: Joe Daniher
 
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Adelaide
Geelong
Greater Western Sydney
Richmond
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Collingwood
-----------------------------------------
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Fremantle
West Coast
St. Kilda
Carlton
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Melbourne

PREMIERS: Adelaide Crows
Brownlow: Nat Fyfe
Copeland: Joe Daniher
Daniher is going to win Collingwood’s B & F? Ballsy prediction, I like it.
 
Daniher is going to win Collingwood’s B & F? Ballsy prediction, I like it.

HAHA! Didn't even see that myself so thanks for pointing that out.
It makes me wonder. That could be possible if AFL had a mid season trade deadline?
 
1) Sydney
2) Port Adelaide
3) Melbourne
4) Richmond
5) Western Bulldogs
6) Geelong
7) Gws
8) Collingwood
9) Hawthorn
10) Essendon
11) Adelaide
12) West Coast
13) Fremantle
14) St Kilda
15) North Melbourne
16) Brisbane
17) Carlton
18) Gold Coast

QF) Syd vs Ric
QF) Pta vs Mel
EF) Wbd vs Col
EF) Gee vs Gws
SF) Syd vs Col
SF) Mel vs Gee
PF) Ric vs Gee
PF) Pta vs Syd
GF) Pta vs Ric
 
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