2018 Ladder Predictions

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Connar, Jul 16, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. Freomaniac

    Freomaniac Brownlow Medallist

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    As I said... Freo got 8 wins this year due to winning some close games. Could of easily got a couple more. I am half sold on Lyon rebuilding our list. He won most freo fans over with the youth he played.

    Only way I could accept freo getting Bottom 4 in 2018 is that they get 7 or 8 wins and get 15th spot. Hell, they might get that similar % again of 70-74%. That means they averaged around scoring 71 points a game and conceding 96 points a game.

    Hell Freo could be 17th with 5 or 6 wins and get pick 2. That isn't too bad considering the talent coming in the 2018 draft. Not that I approve of tanking though.....
     

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  2. Stan Van Gundy

    Stan Van Gundy Team Captain

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    Gotta give credit to the Tiges for snatching a flag out of the blue, call it a Bradbury if you will. I think it might be Bulldogs mach 2 for them next season though, unfortunately. I think we can safely say we won't have a repeat of this. They might sneak into 8th spot to grind their way to a brave elimination final loss in week 1, but I'm putting my money on them juuust missing out on the finals.
     
  3. ThaiTiger

    ThaiTiger Team Captain

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    You didn't get the invite to the Christmas party then? We sent them to all the Cats supporters. A small token of our thanks for Caddy and Graham and a Premiership.
     
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  4. schmuttt

    schmuttt Premium Platinum

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    Will do a proper ladder after trade period and fixture is released.

    Top 4 contention - GWS Adelaide Richmond Sydney Port

    In finals mix - Geelong Melbourne Essendon St Kilda WCE St Kilda Collingwood

    Bottom 6 - Hawks Freo WCE Brisbane Carlton North

    None of the teams in those groups are in any particular order.
     
  5. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Richmond didn't have some sort of a Bradbury run to win the Premiership. They finished in the top 4, which is where the Premiership is normally won. They also had a better percentage than Geelong and GWS at the end of the season.
     
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  6. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    The fact that 4 out of Fremantle's 8 wins were under a goal is the concerning part for me, not the smashings. 4 wins under a goal yet 1 loss under a goal.

    However, you have a point about how young Fremantle's squad is. They could improve especially with the new Perth Stadium that the opposition sides are not familiar with yet. This draft needs to be a good one though.
     
  7. carnthedons

    carnthedons Norm Smith Medallist

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    How is that concerning? They’ve shown an ability to win tight games if they’re in position to, something neither your nor my club could really do.

    And before I get the expected hurr durr tigers won da flag so we r da best, your inability to close out tight games this year has to be a concern with a tougher draw coming (it is for los bombres too)
     
  8. Sttew

    Sttew Premium Platinum

    Geelong
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    Who's asking?
    1. Port Power
    2. Western Bulldogs
    3. Melbourne
    4. Richmond
    5. Geelong
    6. Fremantle
    7. Essendon
    8. Swans

    I reckon Adelaide will not recover from GF loss
     
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  9. Leather Poisoning

    Leather Poisoning Moderator

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    Especially losing lever.

    I'm interested to see how the dogs rebound, how tigers handle the premiership win and whether sydney and Geelong can stave off the decline for yet another year.

    At the other end I think freo are a key forward away from a quick rise up the ladder and Carlton are cooking up something good. I'm expecting carlton to overtake st kilda and possibly even Melbourne as other developing sides. The blues are doing the rebuild the right way with Bolton.

    Hawks and bombers are completely unknown quantities. Hawks have Rioli, frawley, Stratton and birchall to return. A fit omeara (touch wood). That's a lot of extra firepower - but whether it can all click again remains to be seen.

    Essendon also have a really good coach - and I hate them - but there are some good pieces being put in place. Not sure what their ceiling is. I reckon daniher is an outright gun and will really break out into a top 5 key forward.

    The rest of the teams I don't care much about
     
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  10. andrew coombs

    andrew coombs Club Legend

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    The only teams that I could pick with confidence to play finals are Adelaide, Sydney and GWS. All have a pronounced home ground advantage and enough ability on their lists to win at least 13 games which should be enough. If Geelong get Ablett and he stays fit they will be thereabouts again. As the reigning Premier we should probably expect the Tigers to be up there again but there are no guarantees. Like the Dogs in 2016 the Tigers were far more impressive in September than during the home and away season. The manic pressure they applied at the opposition in the finals is impossible to replicate throughout the grind of the regular season, Week in week out. For all their post season heroics the fact is that they won a modest 15 games this season and will most likely need to improve on that with a tougher fixture and under the pressure of being a hunted scalp for everyone else. I'm not quite sure how talented the list is beyond their best half dozen players. They will need to improve to hold ground, no certainties.
     
  11. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Because close games are ones that can go either way, and if half of a team's win comes from that source, then their current position may be a little inflated. Bulldogs and Hawthorn did it last year and both ended up falling. I find the rate of close wins/losses a good indication as to whether or not a team may slip.

    - 2016 Hawthorn (6 wins under 2 goals and 1 loss) and Bulldogs (6 wins under 2 goals and 1 loss by 3). Both slipped the following year
    - 2015 Fremantle (6 wins under 2 goals and 0 losses). Slipped the following year
    - 2014 Geelong (7 wins under 2 goals and 1 loss). Slipped the following year

    Even Collingwood of 2012 had 5 wins which were 2 goals or less but had 0 losses like that. They slipped the following year to 5-8./

    I haven't really looked that deeply into this and it is a simplistic way of viewing this, but it is something I have noticed. Fremantle is in a different situation to these guys though. Like Freomaniac mentioned, these wins were with a young team rather than the other ones I mentioned here so it may turn out as a good thing rather than a bad thing.
     

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  12. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Hmm, it is a concern and it has been a concern for many years. We are 14-2-24 in games decided by 12 points or less in the Hardwick era, which I guess means that we haven't been that good in close games.

    The thing that I take comfort in is that after the two lopsided years where we lost a heap of close games compared to what we won [2012: 2-1-6 and 2016: 1-4] we jumped up the ladder significantly, and we went 1-4 again this year. I know that it could mean little in the end given that trading in players and coaches played the major role, but I like following patterns like this to see where it ends up.
     
  13. Rance2Mewtwo

    Rance2Mewtwo Club Legend

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    When your team is winning half its matches by a kick, it means luck will swing against you more easily than if you won all your matches by 3-4 goals and controlled the play all day. However it does mean you probably have enough older, experienced players to stay calm, and a methodical coach. But that also means there's less potential to improve.

    I like Fremantle but they finished on 8 wins with a lot of luck going their way.
     
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  14. G0ther00s

    G0ther00s Club Legend

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    A lot of people choosing North last, not sure it'll happen but I'd rather be there than finishing 9th-13th.
     
  15. kranky al

    kranky al Norm Smith Medallist

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    They were pathetic away from their home ground - and luckily didnt have to leave their home ground.

    They are the only club that didnt have to leave their home ground.

    If we never left subi for finals and gf wed have 9 flags
     
  16. kranky al

    kranky al Norm Smith Medallist

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    Id have us play kids kids kids this year in this draft.

    Have them play to win but sheeeeeyit good draft to do badly in.
     
  17. Madtiger2006

    Madtiger2006 Brownlow Medallist

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    Richmond will go out in straight sets. Bookmark it
    Rich-similar draw with no game in geel or gws territory, quality tall in trade
    Adel-almost again
    Syd-usual late choke
    West Syd-up there
    Geel-dropping off slightly
    Foots-slight improvement
    St Kil-on the up
    Port-about the same
    Melb-arrogant players to cost them again
    Haw-About the same
    Coll-same again
    Bris-improving
    WC-falling
    Ess-midfield lacking
    Carl-see Ess
    GC-need stability
    Frem-bit of work to do
    North-in trouble
     
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  18. Ricky Vaughn

    Ricky Vaughn Club Legend

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    1. Hawthorn
    2. Collingwood
    3. North Melbourne
    4. West Coast
    5. Brisbane
    6. Fremantle
    7. Adelaide
    8. Richmond
    9. Geelong
    10. Western Bulldogs
    11. St. Kilda
    12. Essendon
    13. Carlton
    14. Port Adelaide
    15. Sydney
    16. GWS
    17. Gold Coast
    18. Melbourne
     
  19. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Yeah, but that doesn't mean that they did a "Bradbury" to win the Premiership. Winners are said to do a "Bradbury" when the win is in an unlikely manner despite the circumstances (like Bradbury's win with his competitors falling over). It is quite a standard procedure for all-Victorian finals to be played at the MCG and the Grand Final be played at the MCG. It has been for years. If Richmond make the top 4 again next year and draw a Victorian side in the QF, then there is a chance that they could win a Premiership with all of their finals at the MCG again.
     
  20. Striker475

    Striker475 BigFooty Tanker

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    Wasn't Rocky that caused their improvement, was Beams and their lesser lights clicking.
     
  21. kranky al

    kranky al Norm Smith Medallist

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    I dont think you bradburyed it at all.

    Loved watching you (at home) for the last bit of the season - love the style of play and the toughness - just think you were kissed on the dick not having to leave melbourne.
     
  22. HairyO

    HairyO Brownlow Medallist

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    1. Swans
    2. Pies
    3. Blues
    4. Saints
    5. Lions
    6. Tigers
    7. Cats
    8. Bombers

    A prize for who works out the inspiration.
     
  23. Lsta062

    Lsta062 Norm Smith Medallist

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    Yep, I'll admit that Richmond did have an easy finals run. I don't know if we'd be talking a Richmond Premiership if they played Adelaide in AO for the Preliminary Finals.
     
  24. Madtiger2006

    Madtiger2006 Brownlow Medallist

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    Richmond will go out in straight sets. Bookmark it
    Any Vic team that finishes 3rd and plays a Vic team in 2nd will always play at the G. Grand final is always at the G too. In 150 years this has always been the case.
     
  25. MightyTiger

    MightyTiger Norm Smith Medallist

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    You know, the more you say certain things doesn't make it so. We weren't pathetic away from home at all, and I don't know why you keep trying to convince yourself or lie to others about it.

    Richmond v GWS Spotless Richmond 5 goals up at the start of the 4th quarter, we choked and lost from the unloasable position.

    Richmond v WBD Etihad Richmond 6+ goals up heading into the third quarter, Richmond lose the unloasable again.

    Richmond v Geelong Kardinia Park Geelong far to good for us on the day, never looked likely at all, Richmond lost by 3 goals.

    Richmond v Adelaide Adelaide Oval we were pathetic after the first quarter, one of two games where we just not good enough.

    Richmond v St Kilda Etihad A game where we just never showed up at all at any point, a game to be forgotten and never talked about again.

    See notice how when you break it down and give the games context and a bit background about the game they don't seem as bad as you like to keep pointing out them to be?

    By the way we didn't leave Melbourne for the finals because we WON all of our games, we beat Geelong who never ever had any rights to a home ground final, only a HOME STATE final which has been.the case for 100 years.

    But you keep trying to down play our GF victory as if it makes any difference, we will for ever be etched into the history books like every other winning team.

    PS suck on some lemons you bitter flog, maybe the AFL should strip the eagles of it's 06 flag for allowing a clearly iced up Cousins to play.