Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

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The Bighouse

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Here's hoping Wines decides he wants out of Port. Would give us a very strong hand in a trade deal.

Picks 1 and 29 (Ade) for Wines and Pick 10.
Grab Ian Hill or Curtis Taylor at Pick 10.
Trade 23 for Jake Lloyd.
Get Guthrie via free agency.
Skip on Wallis and Dahlhaus.
Hickmott and BSOS late.

Lloyd, Marchbank, Plowman
Docherty, Weitering, Williamson
Guthrie, Cripps, O'Brien
Kreuzer, Wines, Dow
Fisher, C. Curnow, Pickett
Murphy, McKay, Kerr
I/C: E. Curnow, SPS, Kennedy, Lang

McDaid, Rowe, Jones
Byrne, Macreadie, Schumacher
Thomas, Cuningham, Garlett
De Koning, Kerridge, JSOS
Polson, Casboult, Wright
Lebois, BSOS, Lobbe
I/C: Taylor, Hickmott, Lamb, O'Shea, Phillips

Gone: Simmo (ret), Mullet (del), Graham (del), Shaw (del), Glass-McCasker (del), ASOS (ret)


Could get on board that.
Is there any reason we missed out on acquiring Gaff as well?
 

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Cutz

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Here's hoping Wines decides he wants out of Port. Would give us a very strong hand in a trade deal.

Picks 1 and 29 (Ade) for Wines and Pick 10.
Grab Ian Hill or Curtis Taylor at Pick 10.
Trade 23 for Jake Lloyd.
Get Guthrie via free agency.
Skip on Wallis and Dahlhaus.
Hickmott and BSOS late.

Lloyd, Marchbank, Plowman
Docherty, Weitering, Williamson
Guthrie, Cripps, O'Brien
Kreuzer, Wines, Dow
Fisher, C. Curnow, Pickett
Murphy, McKay, Kerr
I/C: E. Curnow, SPS, Kennedy, Lang

McDaid, Rowe, Jones
Byrne, Macreadie, Schumacher
Thomas, Cuningham, Garlett

De Koning, Kerridge, JSOS
Polson, Casboult, Wright
Lebois, BSOS, Lobbe
I/C: Taylor, Hickmott, Lamb, O'Shea, Phillips

Strong performing post this-good laternal thinking...but..cant we keep Graham.


Gone: Simmo (ret), Mullet (del), Graham (del), Shaw (del), Glass-McCasker (del), ASOS (ret)


Could get on board that.
Strong performing post this-good laternal thinking...but..cant we keep Graham. Cant see him wanting to leave the club, and would be awesome in that "Jordan Russell" (the role he played in the Bulldogs seconds as a development player is under rated) role in the seconds.
 

Blue__Balls

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Is there any reason we missed out on acquiring Gaff as well?
Do you want a serious response, or are you just trying to be cute?

Because my gut feel is that McGovern will jump ship to Freo, allowing WC to pay Gaff what he wants/deserves to stay.

Wines yet to sign, still contemplating whether he wants to come back to Vic. Is obviously thinking long term, so we may be able to sell the vision. Supported Carlton as a kid, may help seal a deal if we ticked the other boxes.

Guthrie getting squeezed out by Geelong. Like Lang, we can offer a decent contract, midfield time, and coffee with his idol, Chris Judd, a few times a week.

Jake Lloyd. Long shot, not sure if he wants out, but he's out of contract and is someone we should chase. If Sydney go hard at Darcy Moore it might help shake someone like Lloyd loose. Would be fine with targeting someone like Dahlhaus here instead as a free agent, but Lloyd would be my preference of the two.
 

LordLucifer

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I don't think there's one change that could be made to fix things - it's probably gotta be a review of the whole draft/free agency/salary cap combination.

Something like the bottom 8 sides getting an extra pick each before the draft proper.

Priority Round: 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11
Round 1: 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Round 2: 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

So the wooden spooner gets Picks 1 and 9. A team that just missed finals gets Pick 15 or 16. The premiers get Pick 26.

Band 1 free agency compo - end of priority round
Band 2 free agency compo - end of round 1
Band 3 free agency compo - end of round 2
(Marquee players band 1, Best 22 types Band 2, depth players Band 3 - would need a new model to classify players)

Shouldn't be any issues with teams trying to tank to get an extra pick, because the teams sitting 9th and 10th are usually within reach of finals at the end of the season and that would/should be a greater prize to chase.

Further assistance should then be limited to AFL grants for facilities, or extended spending caps (with possible financial support) for coaching/support staff. If a club is struggling to retain and develop players effectively, more picks doesn't help, but improved facilities and extra/better coaches might.


That's my train of thought anyway. Probably full of holes, but I think it at least provides a framework where the bottom sides get to bring in talent, the top sides get to be top now but should slide sooner, and the basketcase clubs get administrative support to help them catch up.
I floated a similar thing a few weeks back here :

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...a-priority-pick.1195220/page-13#post-55992820

1-9 : teams 18-9
10-18 : teams 18-9
19-26 : teams 8-1
 

Blue__Balls

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Strong performing post this-good laternal thinking...but..cant we keep Graham. Cant see him wanting to leave the club, and would be awesome in that "Jordan Russell" (the role he played in the Bulldogs seconds as a development player is under rated) role in the seconds.
I'd rather we pay out O'Shea and keep Graham for 12 months if that was possible, but I don't think the club would do that.

Realistically though, Cripps, Wines, Kennedy, Curnow, Dow, SPS, Kerridge, new-age-JSOS, Hickmott - probably enough slow-ish mids. We'd have to be hit even worse for injuries than we have been this year before Graham would get a look in. Happy for him to be signed by the NB's though...
 

Blue__Balls

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Good luck selling that to Port.
Values Wines at Pick 2 in a super draft. Seems about right. Lukosius is a big prize for an SA club too, would be a good partner for Todd Marshall moving forward as well, as a succession to Dixon/Westhoff.

They might not bite, but I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility. Might take us using the Bulldogs' second instead of Adelaide's, but that's not something I'd be too upset about.
 

Blue__Balls

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The Bighouse

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Do you want a serious response, or are you just trying to be cute?

Because my gut feel is that McGovern will jump ship to Freo, allowing WC to pay Gaff what he wants/deserves to stay.

Wines yet to sign, still contemplating whether he wants to come back to Vic. Is obviously thinking long term, so we may be able to sell the vision. Supported Carlton as a kid, may help seal a deal if we ticked the other boxes.

Guthrie getting squeezed out by Geelong. Like Lang, we can offer a decent contract, midfield time, and coffee with his idol, Chris Judd, a few times a week.

Jake Lloyd. Long shot, not sure if he wants out, but he's out of contract and is someone we should chase. If Sydney go hard at Darcy Moore it might help shake someone like Lloyd loose. Would be fine with targeting someone like Dahlhaus here instead as a free agent, but Lloyd would be my preference of the two.
Gaff is the more important type of player required for us, if he wants to come home. Really need McGovern to sign up before then & on a loaded contract.

Would be hellava off-season adding Gaff, Wines & Lloyd plus maybe a Wallis via FA but a fair bit of coin would need to be involved in the first 3 moving across.

Lets see how our acquisitions department fares this year.
 

LordLucifer

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Yeah - definitely been discussed before. Wily trout and I had a brief discussion about it late last year.

Definitely got merit in my book. Maybe not perfect, but better than what we have now.
Sorry, I cocked up my example, should of been :

Ladder Positions 18-9, Picks 1-10
Ladder Positions 18-9, Picks 11-20
Ladder Positions 8-1, Picks 21-28
 

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Farktherest

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Sorry, I cocked up my example, should of been :

Ladder Positions 18-9, Picks 1-10
Ladder Positions 18-9, Picks 11-20
Ladder Positions 8-1, Picks 21-28
I think thats skewed too far in the favour of bottom teams.

Eg club in ninth gets pick 10 and 20 but club in eighth only gets pick 21? That's unfair.
 

Gethelred

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I think thats skewed too far in the favour of bottom teams.

Eg club in ninth gets pick 10 and 20 but club in eighth only gets pick 21? That's unfair.
Maybe exclude it to pick 14, so that all sides from 5th down get another crack at improving where the top 4 who shouldn't need it so much - and can guarantee at least one home final - start selecting at 29.
1-15
2-16
3-17
4-18
5-19
6-20

And so on, until you get to the top 4; from there, the draft just goes in ladder order again.

I will say, though, that any setup of this kind incentivises shenanigans.
 

LordLucifer

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I think thats skewed too far in the favour of bottom teams.

Eg club in ninth gets pick 10 and 20 but club in eighth only gets pick 21? That's unfair.
Team in 8th plays finals which is a much higher plateau to achieve.

It doesn't matter how you devise a concept, there will always be a supposed unfair issue so you have to look at what is in the best interests of the competition.
 

passmark

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Had the opportunity to watch the WAFL on Monday West Perth V East Perth (WCE aligned team)

If somebody doesn't pick up Shane Nelson for an AFL list just so he can teach young players how hard you need to work to be successful there is no justice. He's a part time footballer who runs AFL listed players into the ground every week.

He only had 28 disposals on the weekend (he averages 37 for the season) but the quality of them and on the back of West Perths ruckman getting half the hit outs compared to his AFL listed opponents. Nelson used to be very skinny but he's quite thick through the trunk these days.

He's Kerridge without the fumbles and shit kicks. Although Kegga is probably a better one on one mark.

West Perth won convincingly after a tight three quarters on the back of him and Aaron Black (not the Geelong one). Come to think of it, Black was BOG and a former Sandover medalist and only 25,( averages 8 marks and 6 tackles a game) . Get rid of two of Shaw, Mullett or O'Shea and bring these two in and the NB's would be competitive overnight and they'd push for senior selection each week. Neither of them a big goal kickers but that's the style the coach has set up for a decade.
 
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Blue__Balls

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Maybe exclude it to pick 14, so that all sides from 5th down get another crack at improving where the top 4 who shouldn't need it so much - and can guarantee at least one home final - start selecting at 29.
1-15
2-16
3-17
4-18
5-19
6-20

And so on, until you get to the top 4; from there, the draft just goes in ladder order again.

I will say, though, that any setup of this kind incentivises shenanigans.
The problem is, the more clubs you add to what I'm terming the "priority round" the more you dilute the benefit to the lower clubs and the more you penalise the top few.

Bottom 6 in priority round means the wooden spooner gets 1 and 7, while the premiers get 24.
Bottom 14 in priority round means the wooden spooner gets 1 and 15, while the premiers get 32.

Ideally, I think you want it to be few enough clubs that they actually get a genuine benefit from it, but enough clubs that tanking for it becomes unattractive.

8-10 is the sweet spot for that.

10 teams means it's whoever misses out on finals. Not a bad thing. You play finals, good for you. You don't, here's a draft concession.

8 teams means you might get a scenario where a team considers throwing the last round, if they're 10th on the ladder and can't mathematically make finals. But history shows that, more often than not, the teams sitting 9th and 10th miss out by one game, or percentage - so they should theoretically be fighting for finals til the end.


Again - not a perfect system I'm sure. But it's definitely a system worth exploring a bit.

The only other thing I've been able to think of is the AFL paying a loading on top of Free Agency contracts for bottom teams - like what they're talking about for Lynch. Ie. If a free agent goes to a bottom 6 side, the AFL pays them an additional 20% of their contract value each year. Makes those bottom teams a more attractive option without shutting out the top sides who can still sell "success". Not sure that does enough by itself though.
 

ParapMarkets

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Do you want a serious response, or are you just trying to be cute?

Because my gut feel is that McGovern will jump ship to Freo, allowing WC to pay Gaff what he wants/deserves to stay.

Wines yet to sign, still contemplating whether he wants to come back to Vic. Is obviously thinking long term, so we may be able to sell the vision. Supported Carlton as a kid, may help seal a deal if we ticked the other boxes.

Guthrie getting squeezed out by Geelong. Like Lang, we can offer a decent contract, midfield time, and coffee with his idol, Chris Judd, a few times a week.

Jake Lloyd. Long shot, not sure if he wants out, but he's out of contract and is someone we should chase. If Sydney go hard at Darcy Moore it might help shake someone like Lloyd loose. Would be fine with targeting someone like Dahlhaus here instead as a free agent, but Lloyd would be my preference of the two.
I’d rather we target the freebies in Gaff and Wallis and keep hitting the draft. I think we actually need a Gaff type more than a Wines type as it’s our run and spread that is lacking. Go As hard as possible next year for Shiel.
 

FoeverBlues

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Has this been posted somewhere? If so, I wouldn't mind posting it again.

It's a good read. http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=29899
About half of Lamb’s inside 50s end in goal assists, which is pretty impressive, despite the smallish sample size. It’s the type of threat that Lamb always threatened to produce, but struggled to with consistency issues.
 

Blue__Balls

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We aren't getting Wines.. if he decided to leave..why would he choose us??
He's basically said that this is effectively his last chance to move clubs. If he signs on, he'll likely be doing so with the intention of sticking around til the end.

That tells me he's thinking long term. Not just "Can Port win a flag in the next 2-3 years", but "Where do I want to play out my career".

If he leaves, presumably he comes to Victoria.

Carlton
Melbourne
North
Richmond
St Kilda
Geelong
Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Collingwood

Can probably rule out Geelong whose list is loaded at the moment.
Melbourne don't need him, and they'll be prioritising resigning their own quality players (ie. Oliver, Petracca, Hogan, Gawn, Viney etc.).
Essendon went hard at a few players last year and I imagine are short on salary space and trade collateral.
Collingwood and Rochmond are the sides most closely linked with Lynch, and neither really need another midfielder.
The Dogs are already under salary cap pressure, potentially squeezing a couple of players out - not sure they can afford a marquee signing.

That leaves:

Carlton
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Hawthorn

So we'd need to present a compelling enough case that we're as good a chance at seeing success over the remaining 8-10 years of Wines' career than those clubs, and we have room in the cap to pay Wines a premium wage.

Maybe Wines sees a club full of young, talented players, that he can help lead to finals?

Maybe he sees a list that's not ready to take the next step, and he'd rather settle for less to go to a well-run club like Hawthorn?

Plenty of water to go under the bridge - but if he chooses to leave I'd think we're at least a reasonable chance of selling the vision.
 

blueboy25

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West Perth won convincingly after a tight three quarters on the back of him and Aaron Black (not the Geelong one). Come to think of it, Black was BOG and a former Sandover medalist and only 25,( averages 8 marks and 6 tackles a game) . Get rid of two of Shaw, Mullett or O'Shea and bring these two in and the NB's would be competitive overnight and they'd push for senior selection each week. Neither of them a big goal kickers but that's the style the coach has set up for a decade.
Hopefully they would go better than our previous west perth players in:
Josh Donaldson
Troy Longmuir
Suitcase Browne
 

therubbernub

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He's basically said that this is effectively his last chance to move clubs. If he signs on, he'll likely be doing so with the intention of sticking around til the end.

That tells me he's thinking long term. Not just "Can Port win a flag in the next 2-3 years", but "Where do I want to play out my career".

If he leaves, presumably he comes to Victoria.

Carlton
Melbourne
North
Richmond
St Kilda
Geelong
Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Collingwood

Can probably rule out Geelong whose list is loaded at the moment.
Melbourne don't need him, and they'll be prioritising resigning their own quality players (ie. Oliver, Petracca, Hogan, Gawn, Viney etc.).
Essendon went hard at a few players last year and I imagine are short on salary space and trade collateral.
Collingwood and Rochmond are the sides most closely linked with Lynch, and neither really need another midfielder.
The Dogs are already under salary cap pressure, potentially squeezing a couple of players out - not sure they can afford a marquee signing.

That leaves:

Carlton
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Hawthorn

So we'd need to present a compelling enough case that we're as good a chance at seeing success over the remaining 8-10 years of Wines' career than those clubs, and we have room in the cap to pay Wines a premium wage.

Maybe Wines sees a club full of young, talented players, that he can help lead to finals?

Maybe he sees a list that's not ready to take the next step, and he'd rather settle for less to go to a well-run club like Hawthorn?

Plenty of water to go under the bridge - but if he chooses to leave I'd think we're at least a reasonable chance of selling the vision.
Agree that playing with cripps would be a big selling point. But in the end it probably comes down to the coach. "Who has the ability to take me and the list" towards a premiership. We know that Hawthorn does, and, we should begrudgingly admit that North do. I dont think the saints do. Does Bolton? I say that he does, but it will be wines and his manager's perception of BB that will count
 
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