Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

Status
Not open for further replies.

Juddernaut08

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 8, 2007
Posts
4,943
Likes
4,990
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Wouldn't mind Webster, Gresham and Billings from the saints. Club is in disarray and would be good to pick the best of their bunch. Would trade all our second rounders for them and next years too.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

blue healer

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 25, 2010
Posts
4,329
Likes
4,895
Location
wagga wagga
AFL Club
Carlton
Not a chance of that happening
I don't know how you are able to say there is no chance of trading those players.

Would you have predicted that we would have traded Menzel when we did?

In the current environment none of those some predict will be gone at year end are worth anything on the trade table. Other teams may take a chance with Graham, Kerridge and Lamb etc but it's highly unlikely that they would trade for them when they can be picked up for nothing as DFA's.

Do you really think North didn't try to shop Mullet around?

If we want to trade deeper into a strong draft we will have to get creative so I'd think it's a distinct possibility that we may surprise some with who we put on the trade table.
 

gandaal

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Oct 8, 2004
Posts
17,566
Likes
11,656
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
My List changes at the end of the year.

Mullett - FA (Gaff)
O'Shea - FA (Wallis)
Wright? - Trade for player with Future Picks (Lang type)
Graham - Pick One (Lukosius)
Thomas - Pick 20 (Bytel)
Lobbe - Pick 30 (Mummery)
Simpson? - Pick 64 (BSOS F/S)
Lamb/Rowe - Pick 82 (SOS Gold ala Williamson)

G-Mac - Rookie (Hickmott)
Shaw - Rookie (Manton)
ASOS? - Rookie (Schloithe)

I really like our list and the above will improve it dramatically. (Names in brackets are examples of possible replacements). SOS won't shy away from the hard decisions. Hard to find 7 senior listed players to delete which is a positive. 1 or 2 may well survive depending on what SOS can do during trade period. Like last year they won't be signed until after.
I like it except I doubt we'll be getting rid of Wright. Also Simpson and Thomas will probably carry on another year. O'Shea has a two year contract as well.

I suspect Kerridge, Phillips and possibly Cunners might be in trouble. I would've thrown Polson on the rookie list myself but that ship has sailed.
 
Joined
Feb 1, 2017
Posts
1,729
Likes
5,199
AFL Club
Carlton
My List changes at the end of the year.

Mullett - FA (Gaff)
O'Shea - FA (Wallis)
Wright? - Trade for player with Future Picks (Lang type)
Graham - Pick One (Lukosius)
Thomas - Pick 20 (Bytel)
Lobbe - Pick 30 (Mummery)
Simpson? - Pick 64 (BSOS F/S)
Lamb/Rowe - Pick 82 (SOS Gold ala Williamson)

G-Mac - Rookie (Hickmott)
Shaw - Rookie (Manton)
ASOS? - Rookie (Schloithe)

I really like our list and the above will improve it dramatically. (Names in brackets are examples of possible replacements). SOS won't shy away from the hard decisions. Hard to find 7 senior listed players to delete which is a positive. 1 or 2 may well survive depending on what SOS can do during trade period. Like last year they won't be signed until after.
Lebois will be gone.
 

Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 17, 2015
Posts
18,533
Likes
47,139
AFL Club
Carlton
I don't know how you are able to say there is no chance of trading those players.

Would you have predicted that we would have traded Menzel when we did?

In the current environment none of those some predict will be gone at year end are worth anything on the trade table. Other teams may take a chance with Graham, Kerridge and Lamb etc but it's highly unlikely that they would trade for them when they can be picked up for nothing as DFA's.

Do you really think North didn't try to shop Mullet around?

If we want to trade deeper into a strong draft we will have to get creative so I'd think it's a distinct possibility that we may surprise some with who we put on the trade table.
I did actually but that's irrelvant. Our list needs more and more talent and there is no way that SOS will get rid of any of the young talent he has brought in until they have had a chance to show their ability.
 

Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 17, 2015
Posts
18,533
Likes
47,139
AFL Club
Carlton
I like it except I doubt we'll be getting rid of Wright. Also Simpson and Thomas will probably carry on another year. O'Shea has a two year contract as well.

I suspect Kerridge, Phillips and possibly Cunners might be in trouble. I would've thrown Polson on the rookie list myself but that ship has sailed.
That's why I put the question mark but someone has to go. Simpson may struggle to play another year and Thomas won't. Two year contract on minimal money means nothing to SOS if he can improve the list. IMO Kerridge Phillips will stay and Cuningham is a no brainer to stay.
 

ferrisb

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 22, 2011
Posts
12,753
Likes
53,396
Location
The Naughty Corner
AFL Club
Carlton
Has this been posted somewhere? If so, I wouldn't mind posting it again.

It's a good read. http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=29899
Thanks NBTJ35. That was a fantastic read.

A statistical look at our strengths and weaknesses.

Interestingly, the article makes a case for our backline looking particularly shaky (performance wise) and our forward line looking the most promising.

It also includes some interesting stats at the bottom of the article about the chances of a bottom 4 side making into the top 8 and top 4 in subsequent years. The %s are probably higher (and more reassuring than you expect).
 

BrisbaneCFC

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 1, 2016
Posts
4,635
Likes
5,578
AFL Club
Carlton
reckon I am deadset on the fence with daisy - if he stays I'm ok, if he goes I'm ok - don't dare judge my ambivalence............
yep, Im indifferent to him. Not bothered either way if he stays or goes. If he remains best 22 next season then I would suggest FA and trading hasn't gone as we would have hoped for.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

ferrisb

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 22, 2011
Posts
12,753
Likes
53,396
Location
The Naughty Corner
AFL Club
Carlton
Thanks NBTJ35. That was a fantastic read.

A statistical look at our strengths and weaknesses.

Interestingly, the article makes a case for our backline looking particularly shaky (performance wise) and our forward line looking the most promising.

It also includes some interesting stats at the bottom of the article about the chances of a bottom 4 side making into the top 8 and top 4 in subsequent years. The %s are probably higher (and more reassuring than you expect).
The bottom part of the article reminded me of something I posted recently on the main board.

I response to a thread 'Will St Kilda go 21 rounds without a win', I crunched some numbers on teams that had won less than 2 matches at the half-way point of the season. Short story is: teams at 1-10 have won on average 2.6 more games in the 2nd half of the year. Not really relevant specifically to the list management thread, but some stats to judge our season so far and the outlook for the rest of the year.

Long story is long. And included below for completeness/boredom......
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I crunched some numbers on the last 20 years for teams on 1.5 wins or less at round 11
  • Highlights
    • 75% of years (15/20) had a team on 6 points or less at round 11
    • Total of 22 teams over 20 years (ie some years had more than 1)
    • NOT ONCE did a team go winless in the back half of the season (H2)
    • Only 4 times did a team win only 1 match in back half of season
      • GWS first two seasons (don't really count IMO), Melb in 2013 (prob worst team I have ever seen) and Saints in 2000 (chasing priority pick?)
    • The 22 teams averaged 2.6 wins in back half of season
    • Team might have won even more matches in some years if not for priority pick disincentives
    • In last 20 years, teams won one more match 18% of the time, 2 more wins 27%, 3 more wins 32% and 4+ wins 23%
      • Based on the sample, teams in St Kilda's position are more likely to win 4+ more matches than 1 or less......
I think it goes to show no matter how bad a team are (and there have been much worse teams than the 2018 Saints), all hope is not lost. Each week, it's a two-horse race. All you need is for everything to click once, another team to take you lightly, injuries to the other team etc. It's extremely likely you'll see your team win another match, and highly likely (>80%) you'll win more than 1.

Full list here:

 

Pablito

All Australian
Joined
Oct 23, 2017
Posts
750
Likes
1,266
AFL Club
Carlton
Best case scenario.

Gaff as a free agent

Wines, pick 10, 21 for pick 1

One of our now 3 second rounders (most likely the highest) for fiorini.

Murphy leaves to free up cap space.

Cripps, wines, gaff, curnow, fiorini, fisher, sps, dow starting midfield round 1 2019.

Wowee a boy can dream.
 

Red Bull

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Posts
6,682
Likes
10,024
Location
mornington peninsula
AFL Club
Carlton
Best case scenario.

Gaff as a free agent

Wines, pick 10, 21 for pick 1

One of our now 3 second rounders (most likely the highest) for fiorini.

Murphy leaves to free up cap space.

Cripps, wines, gaff, curnow, fiorini, fisher, sps, dow starting midfield round 1 2019.

Wowee a boy can dream.
Clubhouse leader ...
 

The Bighouse

Premiership Player
Joined
Jun 28, 2009
Posts
3,939
Likes
3,702
Location
Perth
AFL Club
Carlton
I did actually but that's irrelvant. Our list needs more and more talent and there is no way that SOS will get rid of any of the young talent he has brought in until they have had a chance to show their ability.
Original scenario was if Cuningham, McKay or Macreadie as examples said they wanted out for more opportunities (or dollars) on offer from other clubs - we can’t control that other than trading out if it works for us as we have contracted most players but we may not be immune from it occurring.
 

blue healer

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 25, 2010
Posts
4,329
Likes
4,895
Location
wagga wagga
AFL Club
Carlton
Original scenario was if Cuningham, McKay or Macreadie as examples said they wanted out for more opportunities (or dollars) on offer from other clubs - we can’t control that other than trading out if it works for us as we have contracted most players but we may not be immune from it occurring.
Hard to see another club offering more opportunities than us at the moment.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

Premiership Player
Joined
Apr 20, 2006
Posts
3,761
Likes
3,277
AFL Club
Carlton
I think we have stuffed up having Lobbe and O'Shea on two year contracts and has put us in a tough position with our delistings.
If Thomas keeps up his form than he should get another year. If he drops off a little maybe put him of on the rookie list. If he struggles second half retire/delist.
If Simpson keeps up his form 1 more year otherwise maybe retire.
Wright on form rookie spot but I expect him to improve so one more year.
If Rowe keeps his spot in the best 22 than 1 more year otherwise rookie list.
I can't see much saving Graham, Mullet and Lamb and all the rookie list to be moved on.
 

chipzac

Club Legend
Joined
Jan 10, 2011
Posts
1,132
Likes
1,359
AFL Club
Carlton
I think we have stuffed up having Lobbe and O'Shea on two year contracts and has put us in a tough position with our delistings.
If Thomas keeps up his form than he should get another year. If he drops off a little maybe put him of on the rookie list. If he struggles second half retire/delist.
If Simpson keeps up his form 1 more year otherwise maybe retire.
Wright on form rookie spot but I expect him to improve so one more year.
If Rowe keeps his spot in the best 22 than 1 more year otherwise rookie list.
I can't see much saving Graham, Mullet and Lamb and all the rookie list to be moved on.
I'd add Polson's name to the 2-year contract stuff ups
 

chipzac

Club Legend
Joined
Jan 10, 2011
Posts
1,132
Likes
1,359
AFL Club
Carlton
Just my opinion, but I thought it could have waited until the end of the year and maybe for only one year.
From what I've read, he's not knocking the door down for promotion and I don't think other clubs are lining up for his services.
Then again, I don't know what the club knows so probably I'll be proven wrong.
 

footyfan78

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Posts
18,171
Likes
17,605
Location
spacetime
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
there are no other teams worthy
Our list needs more and more talent and there is no way that SOS will get rid of any of the young talent he has brought in until they have had a chance to show their ability.

Macreadie I would think an exception to this. Given our oversupply of tall backs, surely if some club came asking and willing to offer a goal kicking small forward we would consider.
 

Jeremias

Moderator
Joined
Sep 26, 2004
Posts
34,469
Likes
25,118
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
MUFC, LAL, PSG
Thread starter Moderator #7,248
Just my opinion, but I thought it could have waited until the end of the year and maybe for only one year.
From what I've read, he's not knocking the door down for promotion and I don't think other clubs are lining up for his services.
Then again, I don't know what the club knows so probably I'll be proven wrong.
He's a 20 year old mid-way through his second year in the AFL system.

Has a long way to go, but has shown some signs already and we're giving him plenty of time to develop.

That's not a stuff up. That's called committing fully to player development, and it's something good clubs do. All the time.
 

La Dispute

La Dispute
Joined
Jul 14, 2005
Posts
9,415
Likes
10,208
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Manchester City, Boston Bruins
I also thought the Polson 2-year contract was pretty OTT.

He's show a few very small signs and 'looks' an AFL player, but we haven't seen anything substantial in his few games that'd suggest he's worth another 2 years. I would have waited til the end of the year, maybe offered one but it wouldn't have wholly surprised me if he'd be delisted.

That being said it's far more constructive for the development of the group not to have too many 1st and 2nd year players running around the senior team.
 

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Nov 13, 2015
Posts
13,701
Likes
30,046
Location
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
He's a 20 year old mid-way through his second year in the AFL system.

Has a long way to go, but has shown some signs already and we're giving him plenty of time to develop.

That's not a stuff up. That's called committing fully to player development, and it's something good clubs do. All the time.
And i doubt that extension would have cost much, sound investment strategy to me
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom