Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

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footyfan78

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Do we trade Pick 1 for Ollie Wines if he wants to come to Carlton? Prefer not too obviously - but what's his worth.
It is a good question. Wines in age bracket we lack elite players big time. Rather end up 3rd last and trade pick 3 for him. I do not think we will have pick 1. Gold Coast and Lions just starting to be hit by injuries like we have in first half of year. Fair chance we end up one or two spots above where we are by the end of season. I got no confidence Saints, Suns and Lions will win more games than us in last 11 games.
 

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pinot

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I would only trade our prime picks for a proven player or statistically speaking a player under 25 and is in top 50 in the rankings.

Pick 1 would only go the following with picks coming back pending on the player would want two picks back otherwise it goes to the draft.

Jack Macrae
Christian Petracca
Matt Crouch
Brad Crouch
Dylan Shiel
Ollie Wines
Marcus Bontampelli
Clayton Oliver
Josh Kelly
Stephen Coniglio

Andrew Gaff should be gettable as should Jayden Hunt and Dom Tyson (very cheap late second round/third round pick)

Realistically I am expecting to take our prime picks to the draft and bring in the likes of Gaff, Tyson, Lloyd and not much else.
 

pinot

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So hypothetically if we do bring in Gaff, Tyson and Lloyd how I think the team can potentially look like.

B: Lloyd Jones Weitering
HB Docherty Marchbank Williamson
C: Gaff Cripps Fisher
HF: SPS Curnow Tyson
F: Wright Casboult Murphy
R: Kreuzer Curnow Dow
IC: Plowman Simpson Thomas Lukosius
E: Silvagni McKay Kennedy
 

Gethelred

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I don't want to trade our first pick for Wines.. in an era of free agency we either get a free agent or hit the draft. We don't want to stuff up this rebuild. Trading this year's and next year's first rounders is a not a great decision. Wines is not elite. He's an honest footballer slightly better version of Ed Curnow..
You're kidding, right?

Wines is a much better player than Ed, and that is no slight on Ed, and he's been an A grader since his first season.
 

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I would only trade our prime picks for a proven player or statistically speaking a player under 25 and is in top 50 in the rankings.

Pick 1 would only go the following with picks coming back pending on the player would want two picks back otherwise it goes to the draft.

Jack Macrae
Christian Petracca
Matt Crouch
Brad Crouch
Dylan Shiel
Ollie Wines
Marcus Bontampelli
Clayton Oliver
Josh Kelly
Stephen Coniglio

Andrew Gaff should be gettable as should Jayden Hunt and Dom Tyson (very cheap late second round/third round pick)

Realistically I am expecting to take our prime picks to the draft and bring in the likes of Gaff, Tyson, Lloyd and not much else.
I wouldn’t pay much for Brad Crouch. He is always injured. I wouldn’t be surprised if he retired in the next couple of years.

That would actually be a massive offseason.
 

footyfan78

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You're kidding, right?

Wines is a much better player than Ed, and that is no slight on Ed, and he's been an A grader since his first season.
Yep. Ed is amazing what he gets out of himself. He has worked himself into a B+ player at very very best.
B- probably where I see him.
Wines is a true A grader and would expect him to get better in next few years.
Ed is at his peak now.

Crippa and Wines together would be hell of a team in engine room for 150 games.
 

rog1995

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I would. Ed this year has shown he is more than just an honest footballer. He is the beat run with player in the league and is playing Robin to Cripp's Batman in the coal face, and Wines is a fair step above him in talent.

If we got Wines and Kennedy comes on as we expect, our inside grunt is sorted while we get to watch SPS, Dow and Fisher flourish around them.
Look at Wines stats this year. Nothing special and Port currently sitting in eighth position. He's a big midfielder who's slow and doesn't hit the scoreboard.. Wines,Ed ,Cripps and Kennedy is a one paced midfield. We don't need and aren't ready to be trading away valuable high draft picks when we can get players via free agency. I would much rather we Target players like Miles, Jayden Hunt, Gaff etc.
 
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LordLucifer

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Look at Wines stats this year. Nothing special and Port currently sitting in eighth position. He's a big midfielder who's slow and doesn't hit the scoreboard.. Wines,Ed ,Cripps and Kennedy is a one paced midfield.
I'm not going to support those suggesting we should trade our first pick for Wines but I will refute your assertion that his stats are "nothing special".

This year he is averaging :
  • Kicks 11.8
  • Handballs 14.2
  • Disposals 26.0
 

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Curnivore

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Look at Wines stats this year. Nothing special and Port currently sitting in eighth position. He's a big midfielder who's slow and doesn't hit the scoreboard.. Wines,Ed ,Cripps and Kennedy is a one paced midfield. We don't need and aren't ready to be trading away valuable high draft picks when we can get players via free agency. I would much rather we Target players like Miles, Jayden Hunt, Gaff etc.

If if Kennedy can live up to his potential he can rest up forward where he was supposedly quite good overhead, Ed neutralizing the opposition, Wines and Cripps in the engine room, Dow, SPS on the outside, pickett and Cunningham providing outside dash, lots of rotations.
I can see what you are saying, and there are a lot of ifs in my vision, but I can see it
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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I'd personally prefer Lukosius over Wines but if Wines was coming to us I guess we would have to have pick 1 on the table. No doubt we would be trying future first and WB second but I can't see it happening.
I'd also try pick 1, ~23, 31~ for Wines and ~10 but I'd imagine they would tell us to GGF. Than I guess I would settle for 1 for Wines and ~30.
If we do somehow manage to get Wines than I think we have to go twice as hard in chasing Gaff. If we could pull that off than adding three A graders (Doc, Gaff and Wines) into our side next year than it would do wonders for the development of our kids.
If we don't end up with pick 1 I'm happy to trade it for Wines
 

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Is Lloyd uncontracted?
Coming out of contract this year that's why his name is being mentioned. This is all speculation from our end just to make it clear but hasn't signed new contract yet - but you would think he will stay at the Swans unless we come in with an offer too good to refuse of course.
 

katmanblue

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It is what comes to mind... Ryder, Dixon, Motlop, Watts and Rockliff may be costing them something to have brought in over recent years... Going to be very interesting.
Not really.

The suspensions of Ryder and Monfries a couple of years ago meant that their salaries didn't count towards Ports cap for that year, meaning they would have had to front load contracts to hit the cap floor which would give them more room to maneuver in later years.

I'd say the effects would still be rolling on but perhaps to a lesser degree. Maybe its starting to bite from 2019 onwards.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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Not really.

The suspensions of Ryder and Monfries a couple of years ago meant that their salaries didn't count towards Ports cap for that year, meaning they would have had to front load contracts to hit the cap floor which would give them more room to maneuver in later years.

I'd say the effects would still be rolling on but perhaps to a lesser degree. Maybe its starting to bite from 2019 onwards.

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They apparently were one of only two teams who didn't factor rises in in the salary cap into players salaries so there's another couple of million. They are also aging so you would think they could backend Wines contract pretty easily
 

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Soapy V

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Gethelred

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http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-06/better-than-bud-valueformoney-free-agents

*Carlton would likely have received second-round pick (for Betts) but relinquished its right to compensation after acquiring Dale Thomas as a free agent from Collingwood

If I remember correctly, all the talk at the time was that we'd receive a third-rounder at best?
Bear in mind, they could be entirely correct. The media reporting - as they do - that we shouldn't receive more than a third round pick, and the AFL being willing to concede a mid second for him.

Why the media think they should have a role in determining free agency compensation is a bit beyond me, though.
 

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