Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

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Blue__Balls

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ok you're saying sos said we're like a new club
but what's that mean ?

Double talk by the club is meaningless

is he talking about our list?
so can everybody cut a list back savagely and we have a new competition with all new clubs?

that's a choice to 66 game reset
it's not a new club or like a new club
"Like a new club"

Maybe have a look at the list profiles of GC and GWS in years 2-3 of their existence. I suspect there would be similarities (lots of high draft picks, a small number of "good" senior players, a decent number of mature fillers).

We're a new club in the sense that we made a conscious decision that, in order to attempt to build a flag-winning side, we would turn over the majority of the list over a period of time. Lower the age profile, start fresh, build a dynasty to last. Coupled with player turnover, we've replaced the majority of the coaches, all (?) of the recruiters, a significant portion of the executive team, and most likely a substantial number of regular staffers.

We're still Carlton, but that doesn't mean we're not finding our way with a new group of people.
 

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katmanblue

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Problem for SOS may be how he works the TPP for this year.
We've bottomed out the previous two and now have to utilise 105% but with no one to spend it on, it could present problems for now and going forward. Not easy and maybe things havent tracked well with plan A.
No, i dont think thats right.

We can stay at 95% but we can only got to 105% for 2 years. So we cant have 95% for 4 years then 105% for 4.

But i think we can have 3 years at 95% then up to 2 years at 105%. Thats my understanding anyway.

Please correct me if i am wrong.

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katmanblue

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Wonder if someone like a Ryan Griffen would be on the cards, especially with their salary cap issues. Couldn't hurt to have his experience in the team.. similar to what Brisbane did with Hodgey
Not sure he is a natural leader. Also he was keen to gef out of the Melbourne fishbowl.

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katmanblue

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I would think managing to stay within the salary cap could be quite tricky.

My understanding is a club has to spend 95% of the cap at a minimum. What happens if you quarantine 1.2 million to pay for a 'big fish' FA and at the last minute you dont get him. The club is now at about 90% and potentially no other players to bring in. Are they able to operate at 90% of the cap for a year ?
That when you restructure a couple of contracts to pay some players more this year and less next year.

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katmanblue

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Nearly every year a List Manager will sit down with some Player Managers to "balance the books". He may say look we have some room would you like us to pay player X some more of his contract up front. It may suit someone to help buy a house or pay off a mortgage etc. They may even get a bit extra for taking some money early.

It's not a big issue, it's actually an advantage and something SOS has been building towards. This year or probably next year we can throw some significant money at 2-3 "big fish" and still not effect what we have.

It's all good
Thats why Cripps' signature is crucial going forward so that SOS doesnt need to worry about matching offers for him.

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Cowboyblues

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I know this is lazy but can someone confirm what pics we have going into this years draft.
AFL site has us with 1 1st rounder. Did we not get Adelaide’s this year as well as last for Gibbs and our 2nd this year???
Cheers
 

F the Rest

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Saw Cunningham play against my brother when he was in year 12 and thought he was one of the best players I'd ever seen, so I've always kept a close eye. I'd have liked him to play every week, however we can't do a full Melbourne, we have to keep players competing internally for their spot. Casboult needs to be pushed out by Kerr and McKay, not gift games for them to fight bigger bodies without proper support.

By making them compete we hope they turn into players like Lynch, Fev and Gibbs,
Not Watts, Grimes and Trengrove
If Cuningham wasn't injured, the back half of this year would have seen him play a solid 6-8 weeks in the seniors, finally feel like he belongs, and become and entrenched AFL footballer. Sigh.
 

Curnivore

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If Cuningham wasn't injured, the back half of this year would have seen him play a solid 6-8 weeks in the seniors, finally feel like he belongs, and become and entrenched AFL footballer. Sigh.
Definently, we have been forced to go full Melbourne this year due to injuries, where as last year although I wanted to watch the kids I respected the process when they got demoted to the ressies.
 

Curnivore

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I know this is lazy but can someone confirm what pics we have going into this years draft.
AFL site has us with 1 1st rounder. Did we not get Adelaide’s this year as well as last for Gibbs and our 2nd this year???
Cheers
No, we got two firsts from Adelaide last year which we used on LOB and Kennedy. They have our second and we have theirs
 
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Thread starter Moderator #2,760
I know this is lazy but can someone confirm what pics we have going into this years draft.
AFL site has us with 1 1st rounder. Did we not get Adelaide’s this year as well as last for Gibbs and our 2nd this year???
Cheers
Carlton 1st
WB 2nd
Adelaide 2nd
Carlton 3rd
Geelong 4th
Carlton 5th etc.
 

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Stamos

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BrisbaneCFC

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I understand the whole taking one step back to go two forwards
it's really not about that
for me too many of our kids are already out of favour or struggling
looked at soapies list and some of those are going to be delisted this year even
others are not even rated
so many others are struggling



I'm finding it hard to see what we have that's going to move us right past other teams

The list and development are a worry but culture is the main problem
that's not going to just suddenly turn around
we will have won 2 or 3 games out of 30 by the end of this season

we won't be bringing in too many high quality senior players unless some inspired recruiting happens
our players never even learnt a thing as a team this season
I see the whole thing a dogs breakfast
Says who?
 

BrisbaneCFC

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yeah but how can he say that when he played for us thirty years ago?

we're not like a new club and we're definitely not a new club

we might be renovating but that doesn't mean new
Renovation, renovate, renovating by very definition means replacing, improving, remodelling old for new. Renovate -1. To return to a condition of newness by remodelling. 2. To impart new vigor, to revive.
 
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I don't think the club will be rushing to get Lukosius as much as people think we would be unless he makes it to pick 2 with the King twins also available in the draft this year and midfielders more of a need for us right now. We still have Peter Wright who's only 22 and a few KPP's coming through our academy this year and last, including Crossley. Expecting we'd be more keen on Sam Walsh with pick 2 than a KPP.
Appreciate the input.

The trade proposal was working on the hypothetical that (a) you lose Lynch, (b) you view Lukosius as a franchise player, and (c) he's happy to move up there and take on that responsibility.

If any of those three factors don't eventuate, then obviously the trade falls through as there's no need for you to trade up.

Wright remains a terrific prospect but I'm not sure you'd be willing to bypass Lukosius because you've got Crossley coming through. We've got Charlie, Harry and Kerr coming through but I suspect we'd still have some interest in Lukosius regardless...

I also think the Club would be valuing Brodie a lot higher than pick 17. Spent a bit of time in the NEAFL to work on his flaws but since he's come into the side he's been exceptional. Essentially carried our midfield along with Miller against the Swans and was our highest possession winner (27 possessions - 11 contested, 6 tackles, 5 clearances, 3 centre clearances). He's also 1st among rising stars in handballs, clearances, centre clearances, and contested possessions per game and top 4 in tackles, inside 50's, disposals, bounces, and stoppage clearances per game. With 2 years left on his contract, I'd be looking elsewhere as I think we'd be asking for more than you'd be willing to give up for him, like pick 1.

Scrimshaw potentially more get-able but still not sure we'd be looking to trade with 2 years left on his contract as well.
Absolutely. I will admit I've been stewing on that trade scenario for a while, certainly for longer than the past month during which Brodie has come in and strung a few very good games together.

It'd be interesting to see your club's approach to things if he did flag an interest in returning home to Victoria, even with a contract in place.

Scrimshaw would surely be the more likely of the two, and we were linked a little while back. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Someone you could target that would provide something would be Jesse Lonergan though. Could provide some support to Cripps on the inside and would be useful as some cover for your younger guys like Dow and SPS while they're developing. Wouldn't expect he'd cost much either
I liked Jesse a few years back but he just hasn't come on as expected, for whatever reason.

At 24 he's still got time to turn things around but he's not someone I'd suggest holds a whole lot of value. Certainly he's not someone I'd downgrade from 1 to 2 for on his own but he might be worth looking at for a late pick or as a DFA given he's out of contract.
 

BlueGum

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I'm coming from a fair way back here so lets see how this goes, I could end up giving Jimmae's multi-quote record a red hot crack here:
Awesome post. Jimmie has work to do.


There's a bit more to the family stuff than you're aware of and as result you're off the mark.



Did you listen to Tom claim his dad was at the helm for 6 premierships? Or how MLG is a 'dictator' because they elected new board members in the manner that they are directed to via the club constitution?

Tom is a muppett and the only connection he should have with the club is being a paid up member. He's like a one man band version of the Richmond 'Focus On Footy' group but with less idea of what's going on and much more public outcry. If I had my way I'd have a moratorium on anyone in the Elliot family being involved with CFC. The CFC motto is Mens sana in coropre sano which means "a sound mind in a healthy body"... I'd say it should read Mens sana in coropre sano, sine Elliot



Geez you're fun. Maybe you need a break from it? Come back in a couple of years.

We got Kennedy out of Gibbs too.
Last week Gibbs kicked 1 goal, had 21 disposals at 66% efficiency (14 effective disposals), 9 of them contested, 7 marks, 3 tackles, 12 pressure acts, 281 metres, 3 clearances. If you take the average of Kennedy and O'Brien from the last game it's 24 disposals at 81% efficiency (20 effective disposals), 8 of them contested, 5 marks, 2.5 tackles, 18.5 pressure acts, 268 metres, 4 clearances. Being optimistic Gibbs has maybe 80-90 odd AFL games left in the tank, would think that Kennedy & O'Brien could easily have another 400 between them.

Doesn't seem all that diabolical to me.



Keep in mind that a good chunk of those wins last year were in the first half with Docherty, Cripps, Ed & Gibbs plus Kreuzer & Murph were flying.



Gowers has said that he didn't work hard enough and getting delisted was the kick up the **** he needed to make a change. I would have like to perhaps see Holman get another year too but lets not pretend he's doing a Tim Kelly and exploding onto the scene; the guy averages 13 disposals and is basically playing each week because he's a big body in the middle who makes 6 tackles a game.



I agree, no messiah's or quick fixes here. There's no point in going through all of this to 'give up' and take the easy way out without seeing it all through. I think the club has been fairly honest about younger player development, we've heard quite often the phrase "it's not linear".

I don't see us needing to 'add' a year to the rebuild, come 2019 I'm expecting our total turnover from the 66 games (& 4 trade/draft periods) to be up around the 50-52 mark (we're at 42 now). I'd be hanging onto our top line seniors until they retire (Murph, Simmo, Kreuzer, Ed) and keeping a few of the other older guys as depth/backup (Wright, Casboult, Phillips or Lobbe, Kerridge) until their contracts are up or maybe an extension for a couple of them. Then there's guys like Jones who is a bit less certain for me, probably gets extended (currently contracted for next year) but after that I'm not sure.

Our current injury woes have forced us into playing the senior depth players who were meant to strengthen the VFL and give us the occasional chop out in the seniors when younger players needed to be managed or got injured.

This week we'll probably see Thomas and Rowe come in for Jones and Fisher. Taking that team and then comparing the changes to our potential round 1 team (without counting any offseason acquisitions) we're likely to see names like Lobbe, Thomas, Rowe, Graham, Shaw, Casboult, Wright (& others) replaced by some of Kreuzer, Docherty, Fisher, Plowman, Jones, Williamson, Byrne, Cuningham, Lang, Garlett, Kerr... then next year I reckon Schumacher & De Koning might work their way in and get a game or two.


Kreuzer, Browne, Armfield, Pfieffer, Joseph, Hill, Ellard, Shields, Yarran, Robinson, O'Keefe, Tiller, Garlett, Stanton, Bentley, Jacobs, Lucas, Davies, Kerr, Cachia, Dare, Casboult, White, Donaldson, Tuohy, Watson, McCarthy, Mitchell, McInnes, Duigan, Curnow, Twomey, Carter, Bray, Bootsma, Rowe, Buckley, Bell, Heyne, Dale, Lodge, Menzel, Temay, Graham, Collins, Cripps, Giles, Holman, Reynolds, Wood, Johnson, Sheehan, Byrne, Boekhorst, Viojo-Rainbow, Smith, Foster, Tutt, Gowers, Walsh, Fields, Russell.

That's 62 players we picked up in the ND & RD between 2007 & 2014. 7 are still on our list and another 8 are still playing AFL. 3 of those at other clubs were delisted (Gowers, Buckley & Holman). I'd argue next year those numbers could very well be 5 CFC & as low as 5 or 6 elsewhere. Still, looking at this year, 15 from 62 is a pretty horrible number (24%), but the fact that we've still only got 7 from that 62 (11%) on our list is damning, and on of, if not the major component as to why we are where we are.



Good call, was without a doubt his best game for us. Maybe it's starting to 'click' with him.



...and considering Lobbe was our only fit ruckman last week it's hard to deem the call an outright failure. Plus he's a nice 'place holder' on some cap space while he's playing that backup role.

Stories tend to be rubbish if there's no conflict or anything to overcome. The story of #17 should be a ripper... and will probably rival LOTR for run time...



I'd pass on Griffen. Can't stay on the park, walked out of the dogs while captain to chase success and evade the 'Melbourne bubble'.


Winner winner...

What about furthest from the pin?.. the 2014/15 side was one of the oldest in the comp and most of the players weren't exactly on an upwards trajectory as far as on-field output goes. It wasn't a write-off/total-loss but hell it wasn't that far off it. The options were to hard rebuild - rip the bandaid off - and try and fix the list quickly with mass changes and bringing as much talented kids in the door as possible or do it slowly over a decade or more, most likely being a perennial 8-12th placed team.
Aye, aye
Awesome post. Jimmae has work to do.
 
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Jimmae

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I'm coming from a fair way back here so lets see how this goes, I could end up giving Jimmae's multi-quote record a red hot crack here
Pffft, Jimmae doesn't get out of bed for less than 15 multi-quotes....
He's absolutely blown through my record... Perkins-esque performance.
 

Funk

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Problem for SOS may be how he works the TPP for this year.
We've bottomed out the previous two and now have to utilise 105% but with no one to spend it on, it could present problems for now and going forward. Not easy and maybe things havent tracked well with plan A.
Spot on Harks.

I think injuries this year will have seriously impacted SOS's plans.

He (and most people) thought we'd be a far more attractive destination at this point in time.

Shit happens- make the best of a bad situation and keep moving forward!!!
 
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Appreciate the input.

The trade proposal was working on the hypothetical that (a) you lose Lynch, (b) you view Lukosius as a franchise player, and (c) he's happy to move up there and take on that responsibility.

If any of those three factors don't eventuate, then obviously the trade falls through as there's no need for you to trade up.
I think for the position that we're in right now, having a 'pick 1 franchise player' would just be detrimental to Lukosius (think Jack Watts during his early days at Melbourne). At least if he was to make his way to Carlton, He wouldn't be 'expected' to be the game changer, given that you also have Cripps and Curnow already being franchise players.
Wright remains a terrific prospect but I'm not sure you'd be willing to bypass Lukosius because you've got Crossley coming through. We've got Charlie, Harry and Kerr coming through but I suspect we'd still have some interest in Lukosius regardless...
This is true, but I'd expect the club to pick up Dirk Koenan and Caleb Graham from our academy this year, both of whom are KPP's. I just wouldn't expect that the club would weaken it's draft position to pick up Lukosius with Max and Ben King available too - Max being touted as a potential pick 1 last year before injury.
Absolutely. I will admit I've been stewing on that trade scenario for a while, certainly for longer than the past month during which Brodie has come in and strung a few very good games together.

It'd be interesting to see your club's approach to things if he did flag an interest in returning home to Victoria, even with a contract in place.

Scrimshaw would surely be the more likely of the two, and we were linked a little while back. Wouldn't surprise me at all.



I liked Jesse a few years back but he just hasn't come on as expected, for whatever reason.

At 24 he's still got time to turn things around but he's not someone I'd suggest holds a whole lot of value. Certainly he's not someone I'd downgrade from 1 to 2 for on his own but he might be worth looking at for a late pick or as a DFA given he's out of contract.
I would HOPE that the club reused to trade either of them even if they flagged interest to come home as Brodie is the future of our midfield and Scrimshaw has been developed very similarly to Tom Doedee at Adelaide and I'd expect him to slot into the team in Rischitelli's role next season. Confident they will only increase in value by 2020 (which I hope they're still at the club long after that).

Lonergan is an interesting one. I think most at the Suns want us to give him another contract, because he shows in glimpses that he could be a very good inside midfielder, but hasn't been consistent enough at AFL level yet. Plays a genuinely good tagging role (Went to Kennedy at half time on Saturday and held him to 6 second half disposals) and could free up Curnow a little bit in the middle. Would expect us to let him go if you promised him more playing time than us but it would be risky.

Also saw in an article that you're chasing Aaron Hall. My only comment is good luck. Very much a downhill skier but could be potent with cripps feeding it to him on the outside. Should be fairly cheap for a 25+ average disposal midfielder.

Also good luck for this weekend.
 

Funk

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Yeah. Just keep paying up front.
It's not as easy as that, as it does catch up and doors that you had planned to open, close in on you.



Paying just just because you have to meet the TPP? That's a terrible idea brought about by wasted opportunities and disgruntlement amongst senior players.

I just brought the TPP into calculations because it is there and cannot be simply dismissed.
We would have manoeuvred player payments for openings to bring layers in this year and if it doesn't come about, it will be a problem SOS didn't need.
I'm hoping SOS finds opportunities to wrap "salary dumps" into improving draft picks or trade values.

It's the only logical way I can see to make the best of a bad situation.
 
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