Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

Status
Not open for further replies.

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Nov 13, 2015
Posts
13,758
Likes
30,128
Location
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
I don't think midfielders spending time forward is the answer. Goal sense is a specific skill
We need a Bruest,Poppy,Rioli, Betts, WHE. Guys that can consistently make something out of nothing and can read the play. How many times did we bomb the ball long and it spill out the back of the pack to a waiting Hawks players with no Blue in site.

Polson and Picket are yet to really show that they have that goal sense and forward craft.
No doubt we need more input from small forwards, but the are some handy midfield types, at different levels of quality that kick goals while resting forward

Danger, Gray, Caddy, Dusty, Thomas, De Goey, Ziebell, Zorko, T Kelly, Wallis, Bont, Boak, Heeney, Conglio, O,Meara, Douglas etc

It is one of the reasons I like Smith in the draft, if we lean toward a midfielder
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Matty411

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Sep 21, 2012
Posts
5,705
Likes
11,180
AFL Club
Carlton
The comments are always the same from the club. We need that 23 -27 year old player and the list people are working hard on that. IMO somethings happening
IN: Mid-first round pick. McGovern. Dahlhaus/Wallis. Shiel.
OUT: Pick 1. Pick 19 (end 1st PP). Pick 23.

Fits with the noise, narrative and that 23-27 yo mantra.
 

Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 17, 2015
Posts
18,601
Likes
47,240
AFL Club
Carlton
No doubt we need more input from small forwards, but the are some handy midfield types, at different levels of quality that kick goals while resting forward

Danger, Gray, Caddy, Dusty, Thomas, De Goey, Ziebell, Zorko, T Kelly, Wallis, Bont, Boak, Heeney, Conglio, O,Meara, Douglas etc

It is one of the reasons I like Smith in the draft, if we lean toward a midfielder
Agree. I believe Cripps Kennedy Dow Murphy SPS O'Brien Fisher all pushing through there will be good and make us unpredictable. Also if McKay & Kerr can step up and release Charlie we look more and more dangerous. Key is to have a winning midfield
 
Last edited:

BluStreak

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 5, 2012
Posts
4,475
Likes
3,803
Location
Canberra
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
There can be only 1
I am always interested to see those informal moments of the Playing group.
Interesting to see who sits next to each other and at the end of games who gathers together walking off the field etc.
I want to see that translate into 'in game' combos. Like for instance in that video of the teams reaction to Cripps re-signing I saw Cuningham and Kerr side by side with spare chairs either side. translate that to a game with DC kicking it to a leading PK. Little things like that.

I remember Kouta and Ang consistently looking for each other and during play would could almost guarantee that Ang would kick it Kouta's way.
 

Stamos

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Posts
9,280
Likes
8,539
AFL Club
Carlton
I don't think midfielders spending time forward is the answer. Goal sense is a specific skill
We need a Bruest,Poppy,Rioli, Betts, WHE. Guys that can consistently make something out of nothing and can read the play. How many times did we bomb the ball long and it spill out the back of the pack to a waiting Hawks players with no Blue in site.

Polson and Picket are yet to really show that they have that goal sense and forward craft.
Hopefully Cunners. Has pace, power, can slot them.
 

Sector 7G

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 21, 2009
Posts
6,110
Likes
9,112
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
No doubt we need more input from small forwards, but the are some handy midfield types, at different levels of quality that kick goals while resting forward

Danger, Gray, Caddy, Dusty, Thomas, De Goey, Ziebell, Zorko, T Kelly, Wallis, Bont, Boak, Heeney, Conglio, O,Meara, Douglas etc

It is one of the reasons I like Smith in the draft, if we lean toward a midfielder
Not saying we don't need a spread of midfielders that can kick goals but generally they are doing well to average a goal a game. We need forwards who can average 2 a game. Why I wouldn't be upset if we took Rankin (assuming he passes the interview) despite the need for more midfielders.
 

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Nov 13, 2015
Posts
13,758
Likes
30,128
Location
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Not saying we don't need a spread of midfielders that can kick goals but generally they are doing well to average a goal a game. We need forwards who can average 2 a game. Why I wouldn't be upset if we took Rankin (assuming he passes the interview) despite the need for more midfielders.
A balance, I agree

As for Rankine, amazing talent, number 1 for xfactor, just not sure he is in the top 3 in terms of best overall player.

If you have a look at how sides like the Tigers drafted over 7 years, it really was a great patient model. They selected the Vlastuin, Ellis, McIntosh types, before adding their mayo in Rioli, Burtler, Castanga types.

Just not sure we are ready to be so bold with an early pick. Get it right and he helps our progression, get it wrong and it could set us back
 

Faz 2000

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
May 10, 2007
Posts
7,373
Likes
10,308
Location
Under the table
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined
Nov 21, 2017
Posts
1,497
Likes
1,206
AFL Club
Carlton
One element of this I definitely do not accept is that Lukosius IN means McKay OUT. It does not and should not.

McKay - should he continue to develop - is a sensational forward/ruck option, which means we would only need to play one specialist ruckman for the foreseeable future.

Curnow - and from all reports Lukosius - are very mobile forwards who have the flex to play flanks, start on a wing, etc. Should it eventuate that we wind up with all those players on our list, that puts us in a sensational position from a gameday flexibility and match-ups point of view, not in a over-loaded position where we have too much of something.

Multiple match-up options? The ability to expose opposition weaknesses? Viable alternatives should injury strike? Can you IMAGINE having these things?!!? :eek:
Could it be the buddy and roughy combo?
 

Soapy V

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 17, 2015
Posts
18,601
Likes
47,240
AFL Club
Carlton
A balance, I agree

As for Rankine, amazing talent, number 1 for xfactor, just not sure he is in the top 3 in terms of best overall player.

If you have a look at how sides like the Tigers drafted over 7 years, it really was a great patient model. They selected the Vlastuin, Ellis, McIntosh types, before adding their mayo in Rioli, Burtler, Castanga types.

Just not sure we are ready to be so bold with an early pick. Get it right and he helps our progression, get it wrong and it could set us back
Those "X factor" type players can be found late in the draft as well. Betts, Garlett, Charlie Cameron, Liam Baker is debuting for Tigers this week was a rookie, there are heaps. Up to SOS
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Arr0w

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Nov 13, 2015
Posts
13,758
Likes
30,128
Location
In Transit
AFL Club
Carlton
Not sure if it's the right place, but interesting enough piece on AFL website about "What Carlton should do next" and in particular what we should do with pick 1.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-27/what-the-blues-do-next-fans-explayer-experts-speak

Pretty consistent theme and probably a sound list management idea: see if #1 can be turned into a pair of top 10s, or 3 x top 20s type thing.
Fair assessments, nothing I really would disagree with, apart from minor tweaking
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,892
Likes
64,038
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Not sure if it's the right place, but interesting enough piece on AFL website about "What Carlton should do next" and in particular what we should do with pick 1.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-27/what-the-blues-do-next-fans-explayer-experts-speak
Pretty consistent theme and probably a sound list management idea: see if #1 can be turned into a pair of top 10s, or 3 x top 20s type thing.
I don't like that at all, as that could mean a 12, 18 & 20.
SOS won't do that. He's somewhat smarter than just loading up with second-tiered young players.
We need another couple of premium players and can then tinker around the edges and not the other way around.

We may well find gold on all three calls, but I wouldn't bank on it. That #1 this year, can be used to much better effect than what some are proposing.
Saints were beating their chest a few years ago for going to the draft with 3 inside 20. They took Billings with the premium pick and then Dunstan & Acres with with #18 and #19 respectively. They're now league yo-yo's.
Not saying that would happen with us, but we still need premium talent first before loading up with the foot-soldiers.
 
Joined
Mar 20, 2012
Posts
1,810
Likes
1,398
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
We do need some natural goal kickers though. No point bolstering our midfield and getting it in if there is no one that knows how to kick a goal.
In reality all parts of the ground need improving. My current leaning for mids with skill is that they will then assist both our defence and forward lines. The mids just at the moment appears to have the greatest need. Forward line's prime need is a quality medium size forward that can go into the middle.
 

The Grover

Premiership Player
Joined
Nov 24, 2005
Posts
3,500
Likes
1,079
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Carlton
In reality all parts of the ground need improving. My current leaning for mids with skill is that they will then assist both our defence and forward lines. The mids just at the moment appears to have the greatest need. Forward line's prime need is a quality medium size forward that can go into the middle.
medium size forward/mid

Taylor, O'Halloran ( might need a 10-20 pick )
 
Joined
Mar 20, 2012
Posts
1,810
Likes
1,398
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Hopefully Cunners. Has pace, power, can slot them.
I so want him to make it because its that second round picks that become B+ or better players which puts a rocket into a rebuild.

Just worry if he has the mental and physical toughness to make it happen. Not saying we dump him and want him for another couple of years ie give him all the time we can but I do worry about him.
 
Joined
Mar 20, 2012
Posts
1,810
Likes
1,398
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Not sure if it's the right place, but interesting enough piece on AFL website about "What Carlton should do next" and in particular what we should do with pick 1.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-27/what-the-blues-do-next-fans-explayer-experts-speak

Pretty consistent theme and probably a sound list management idea: see if #1 can be turned into a pair of top 10s, or 3 x top 20s type thing.
After grinding through this year I think we need to get at least one star as the reward - downgrading without guaranteeing 2 or 3 lessens the chance of that on current exposed form of the kids. Don't really care if that's via getting in shiel or Louko/Walsh though my preference is a kid.

Use the 2nd rounders and any PP to tradeup into round 1. Use future picks if the top 20 is deeper than normal.
 
Joined
Mar 20, 2012
Posts
1,810
Likes
1,398
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
I see them both as mids. I am still hopeful on LeBois if he can get on the park. He's the type that will do better in a better standard.

I wouldn't mid seeing Kerridge up forward, a bit like Townsend. Charlie can do it all. We may get Lukosious? Murphy I think can be a goal kicker as can SPS & Dow. I understand your point but I'm not concerned.

I like the flexibility and options we are developing. Improved midfield will make a massive difference
This is the Murphy Transition to Retirement plan developed as part of his SMSF. After this contract he then becomes a huge upgrade on Matty W and should extend his career for another couple of years.
 

Sector 7G

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 21, 2009
Posts
6,110
Likes
9,112
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
I don't like that at all, as that could mean a 12, 18 & 20.
SOS won't do that. He's somewhat smarter than just loading up with second-tiered young players.
We need another couple of premium players and can then tinker around the edges and not the other way around.

We may well find gold on all three calls, but I wouldn't bank on it. That #1 this year, can be used to much better effect than what some are proposing.
Saints were beating their chest a few years ago for going to the draft with 3 inside 20. They took Billings with the premium pick and then Dunstan & Acres with with #18 and #19 respectively. They're now league yo-yo's.
Not saying that would happen with us, but we still need premium talent first before loading up with the foot-soldiers.
This was supposed to be a super draft but from my limited viewing it is a draft with 4 super talls, a small forward that could be anything and 2 really good mids. After that it seems to be pretty normal if not below par. This is a year I am less enthusiastic about taking lots of picks in the teens rather than at the front of the draft.
 

The Dominator7

Unleash Finbar's Fury
Joined
Sep 22, 2016
Posts
226
Likes
890
Location
D'Amico Republic
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Dallas Cowboys, Cubs, FC Brugge
Soapy V If you know tell me and if you don't, can you find out: What are the contract statuses of Mullett, O'Shea and Lobbe?
The others are definitely right, including Simpson but generally speaking:

Mullett: We'd give 2 years to DFA. Not necessarily but usually.
O'Shea: To my reckoning, it's 2 years for anyone picked up in the PSD. same as for the ND.
Lobbe: Did he have only one year left on his contract, when he came to us?

I'd like us not to be silly enough to keep paying players out. That's simply money down the drain and reflects that a mistake has been made.
Found this article from a few years back - Lobbe signed till end of 2019 with Port

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...e/news-story/e458b970671da1f9e799d0f4dabd54d2
 

footyfan78

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Posts
18,210
Likes
17,648
Location
spacetime
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
there are no other teams worthy
This was supposed to be a super draft but from my limited viewing it is a draft with 4 super talls, a small forward that could be anything and 2 really good mids. After that it seems to be pretty normal if not below par. This is a year I am less enthusiastic about taking lots of picks in the teens rather than at the front of the draft.
I agree about the picks in the teens.
I see it as picks 1,2 and 3 about the same value and from all the talk by the real professional watchers you could view up to 8 to 10 players all worthy in their own right of being a pick 1.
But although there are no guarantees I reckon if you got any of top 3 picks you almost certainly get a gun. Some of the other guys in top 10 have to be bid on so for mine we are no point downgrading to anything beyond pick 6 at worst. Personally I am super keen to get any of Walsh, Lukosias or Rankine. I am not overly fussed which one. My preference is Walsh based on he is more a certain midfielder type and he sounds a great character to go with it. But if we get one of the other two, not fussed. But I am not buying any bullshit suggestions of trade pick 1 for two picks in the teens. If someone super keen on pick 1 I am happy to downgrade to pick 3 if they give us pick 3 and something else of value.
Pick 1 for pick 3 and a pick 18 for example would do and then see if SOS can use the extra pick and another in 20's to upgrade to another in top 10 picks. But as Harker said, dropping out of the elite picks for three in the teens is not what we need right now.
 

HARKER

Hall of Famer
Joined
Oct 15, 2008
Posts
49,892
Likes
64,038
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton

ETET

Senior List
Joined
Sep 18, 2017
Posts
165
Likes
279
AFL Club
Carlton
I don't think midfielders spending time forward is the answer. Goal sense is a specific skill
We need a Bruest,Poppy,Rioli, Betts, WHE. Guys that can consistently make something out of nothing and can read the play. How many times did we bomb the ball long and it spill out the back of the pack to a waiting Hawks players with no Blue in site.

Polson and Picket are yet to really show that they have that goal sense and forward craft.
I agree with you 100%.. I believe Half Forward is now a specific skill set and we lack them. Must have goal sense as you say but MUST also threaten in defence as the other team tries to exit. Turn overs are now so very important especially in the forward half, in scoring enough to win games.
 

Windhover

Premiership Player
Joined
Mar 16, 2010
Posts
3,365
Likes
2,373
Location
Camberwell
AFL Club
Carlton
Not sure if it's the right place, but interesting enough piece on AFL website about "What Carlton should do next" and in particular what we should do with pick 1.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-27/what-the-blues-do-next-fans-explayer-experts-speak

Pretty consistent theme and probably a sound list management idea: see if #1 can be turned into a pair of top 10s, or 3 x top 20s type thing.
Thanks for the reference to the article.

The consistent theme is we have done just fine with our rebuild so far and need to give our youngsters time. What this conclusion means (or should mean) is that we need to allow our demographic profile to catch up with our rebuild in order to see the success we crave.

With a view to accelerating our demographic profile we do not need pick 1 (since we already have plenty of talent in the incubator). Ideally we can trade pick 1 for say a premium mid (i.e. Gaff) plus trimmings. Plausibly we could trade pick 1 for two picks inside the top 10 (or 1 pick plus quality midfielder).

What we do NOT want to do is go down the Pelchen-suggested path of trading pick 1 for 3 players inside the top 20. The last thing we need is to add 3 more to the incubation room when we have so many still there. The problem with youngsters is you can never tell how they are going to mature. By investing still more heavily in the drafting of youngsters we are delegating list management to the "lucky dip". Although there is plenty of reason to be confident, maybe McKay, TDK and Kerr never make it. Then we will be entirely reliant on Charlie up forward. Or maybe they all make it. Then our list will be lop-sided and over-invested in quality KPFs and we will suffer quality players being recruited to other clubs (like with Jacobs and Grigg). Adding 3 more highly regarded young talents will only exacerbate that problem.

That said, we should not trade pick 1 just because. Keeping it to recruit a quality youngster is not the worst result.
 

Faz 2000

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
May 10, 2007
Posts
7,373
Likes
10,308
Location
Under the table
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Pittsburgh Penguins
Yeh, taking the best kid in the country is great. I think it'd be best if we "split" it and got 2 x top 10s, or a top 10 and a ready made <24yo player. But only if we love the deal, and the reason that *may* come is for a team to trade up to get access to a particular kid (highly likely Lukosius, who seems to be the one-off unique that someone may fall over themselves for).

With Free Agency as it is (a shambolic AFL mess), it has to be considered the way to "buy" help when ready.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom