Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[Blues90]

Yup I'm generally in agreement with the KPF thing.

There was a brilliant post from a Sydney Swans poster a few years back explaining the value of draft picks and different positions - and if applying it to Carlton's recruitment from the last 15 years it shows a lot of fk ups (spending high draft picks on flankers for example...spending multiple picks on late round forwards who flopped).

I think this is changing slowly though, who knows where it will end up. Richmond's strength is that they found a lot of B+ players with skill and pressure...all in the 2nd round.

If live trading was there we wouldn't have spent pick 30 on TDK would have just traded up for him

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[Arr0w]

If live trading was there we wouldn't have spent pick 30 on TDK would have just traded up for him

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Not so sure about that

 

[Stamos]

If live trading was there we wouldn't have spent pick 30 on TDK would have just traded up for him

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Interesting to think how different the last few drafts would have gone if they had live trading.

Would we have traded up for Hayward (19) and Phillips (56) in 2016?

 

[BIuebagger]

Kennedy in 12 games has averaged 17.2 disposals, 3 tackles, 3 clearances in an injury plagued season, with these stats being on par with his best season from last year.

Just turned 21 and it's crossroads time for him apparently......

 

[Arr0w]

Kennedy in 12 games has averaged 17.2 disposals, 3 tackles, 3 clearances in an injury plagued season, with these stats being on par with his best season from last year.

Just turned 21 and it's crossroads time for him apparently......

I don't see him being at the crossroads, once he gets a clear run at it, will be vital part of our group

 

[BIuebagger]

I don't see him being at the crossroads, once he gets a clear run at it, will be vital part of our group

Some supporters are doubting him as seen on the previous page and in other threads. He's not too far ahead of the rest of our young midfielders in terms of time spent at the top level. His block of games before the weekend were fantastic and showcased what he can bring to the table and build off in the near future. Not to mention he went off injured/was injured in 3 of those 12 games I think. Kid has a bright future ahead if he can keep fit.

 

[Soapy V]

I don't see him being at the crossroads, once he gets a clear run at it, will be vital part of our group

He will be the Pippen to Cripps Jordan

 

[I AM CARLTON]

Ok yet again we are trading on what ifs (talent maybe) …. 2 years in the system, 2 games and an injury history. Rather take my chances in the what if stakes in the draft thanks.

Setterfield will be a gun lock it in.

 

[therubbernub]

I don't begrudge Tim Kelly for entertaining the thought of going home to WA.

The guy has a missus and 3 young kids, and Geelong is a world away from Perth/Fremantle and his support network at home.

The guy has been a revelation IMO and an absolute steal for pick 24.

Although not eligible for Rising Star, he'd almost be a lock for best first year player.

Fremantle will not want WC to get him, it is imperative that they put forward a good offer.

If I was Geelong's Football department, I'd be after Cerra, Darcy or a future first.

Would the Cats do a Gaff Kelly swap?

 

[JustaBattler]

What do you reckon peeps - any chance Carlton can package Weitering in with Kennedy as steak knives and get a second rounder from Hawthorn?

 

[BlueGum]

What do you reckon peeps - any chance Carlton can package Weitering in with Kennedy as steak knives and get a second rounder from Hawthorn?

White cross as a sweetener for our help with the O’Meara trade?

 

[JustaBattler]

White cross as a sweetener for our help with the O’Meara trade?

That might be pushing our luck - they'd probably want SPS chucked in as well ..

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I put it forward conceptually a while ago. The thinking is - Lukosius is pick 1, and they need a kpf to replace Lynch. They already have a lot of top end picks so may wish to move a top end pick into next year - our future first would be very highly valued if they wanted to on trade it.

Pick 1 and future first for picks 2&3.

Maybe if they want Casboult we can work it into the deal for a pick upgrade.

Don't see it as that unreasonable.

Hope you don't mind, I thought I'd take this into list management since it's not really a rumour.

It's not unreasonable at all, in fact it may just be desirable for both clubs. They need a franchise player and they'll need a gun kpf to replace Lynch. Lukosius is just that. Add Levi to give him some support for his first year or two

Something like #1 + 2019 1st + Levi + #73 for #2 + #3 + #42

After push back, leaves us with -> #2 + #3 + #22(pp) + #27 + #29 + #48

Would be a great outcome for us, with the first 5 there, if I had those picks, at this stage I'd go for -> Rankine + Walsh + Valente + Butters + Clark

I reckon Clark may still be available at #29 because at this stage both Freo and WC combined don't have too many picks in the top 20. Freo obviously have #6 but they won't use that on Clark and WC have GC 2nd which will probably push out to #24 so that'll be the one pick we could lose him. Valente and Butters I'm also hopeful for. Butters being injured may drop him down the pecking order so we could still snap him up at #27. Valente is a big bodied mid with a nice kick, #22 is about right for him imo.

GC would be trying to lure some experience in and our 2019 1st will give them a strong hand at the trade table either this year or next.

Leaves us a little shallow for 2019 draft but I've been hoping we can land Shiel + Cerra in the off season next year anyway. I reckon Shiel + Kelly is too unrealistic but Shiel as FA and Cerra for our 2020 1st might work. That'll set our 2020 midfield up:

Cripps, Shiel, Dow, Cerra, SPS, Walsh, Fisher, LOB, Valente, Butters, Kennedy, Polson, Cuningham

Great mix of elite/A grade talent and depth.

 

[Metalcrusher]

Setterfield will be a gun lock it in.

You 100% know this in 2 years and 2 games of AFL?

 

[Tyruddanaut]

SOS loves the mid-late picks
70 - Schumacher
65 - Kerr
61 - Williamson
57 - Polson
53 - Jack
47 - Macreadie

We also haven't had many second-round picks under SOS, but they have been good.

27 - Fisher
30 - De. Koning

 

[therubbernub]

Not sure I believe this at all, unless the club thinks 7 changes isn’t a big overhaul.

7 is probably slightly higher than most clubs in most years- guestimate would be 5-6 changes. But if we had made 7 changes in SOS's first 3 years that would only be 21 changes. We made 42- exactly double. Thats dramatic

 

[Benaly28]

Posters doubting Kennedy is laughable.Got injured round one and has never recovered thank god he’s having an op to fix it.

 

[Pack Specialist]

Would the Cats do a Gaff Kelly swap?

You'd think they'd probably fall over backwards to do it.

I know I certainly would!

Considering worst case scenario it would actually be a coup.

The Eagles might consider it a win for a player that is leaving regardless (perhaps)

Likewise for Geelong.

 

[Pack Specialist]

Posters doubting Kennedy is laughable.Got injured round one and has never recovered thank god he’s having an op to fix it.

Kennedy reminds me of Kennedy to be honest.

I actually like Dom Tyson, and Kennedy is a better version of him presently IMO.

 

[Pack Specialist]

Kennedy in 12 games has averaged 17.2 disposals, 3 tackles, 3 clearances in an injury plagued season, with these stats being on par with his best season from last year.

Just turned 21 and it's crossroads time for him apparently......

Yeah he sucks.

Please trade him to Geelong SOS!

 

[DangerousD]

7 is probably slightly higher than most clubs in most years- guestimate would be 5-6 changes. But if we had made 7 changes in SOS's first 3 years that would only be 21 changes. We made 42- exactly double. Thats dramatic

I think 7 is being conservative, i think it will be more which imo is still a big turnover.

 

[DangerousD]

You 100% know this in 2 years and 2 games of AFL?

Is it not the same as using a top 10 pick on a kid who has played zero games?

 

[Funk]

Not sure we missed out on much with Bailey Rice.

3 possessions at 3/4 time tonight.

 

[DangerousD]

SOS loves the mid-late picks
70 - Schumacher
65 - Kerr
61 - Williamson
57 - Polson
53 - Jack
47 - Macreadie

I know we like to talk up these kids but all are speculative thus far and if i was a betting man id say only 2-3 of those guys will kick on.

 

[Funk]

I not really one to speculate on scenarios and possibilities .

What I do have is a calm, confident sense of excitement that we'll finally be adding some quality to our midfield this year.

Be it through this cracking draft class or some savvy trading for listed players, I am pumped to see how it all pans out.

We have some genuine emerging talent in the guts already, along with one of the top five mids in the league. It's most definitely already underway.

This year is more than likely to be the second last trade and draft period that we hang our hopes on. Next year will ice the cake.

After that, all the fun for us bluebagging tragics will be during the season proper.

The patience is trying but I'm happy to wait and see.

Your post is in inverse proportion to your user name.............