Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Pt 2

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Yes. I'd tell Shiel, we'll give you an extra $100k per year if you wait it out. A lazy half mil for waiting a year.

We essentially "buy" our first round pick/trade assets back, for $500k. It's done a similar way in the NBA where you can trade picks for cash. I'd rather do that!!

Yeh he is restricted but. Next year they will have all of Griffen, Shaw, Lids off the books. If Kelly leaves all of a sudden they may be able to match a bid and we are totally screwed.
They also have players like Patton, Lobb who they could move on and free up enough cash to keep the rest.
I don't think you put all this work into someone and than tell them to wait a year when you have no idea of what the future holds.
Injuries, them not matching $1.2mil odd bids on COGs and Kelly are only a couple of ways that could blow up in our faces

 

[Kramer1]

Carlton, Bolton and SOS don’t have another year. They need to demonstrate significant improvement in 2019.

I want SOS to go full beast mode during this year’s trade and draft periods. Don’t hold back!

*en A

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

Carlton, Bolton and SOS don’t have another year. They need to demonstrate significant improvement in 2019.

I want SOS to go full beast mode during this year’s trade and draft periods. Don’t hold back!

This is the point Nori I agree totally. Bolton in particular will be screaming at Sos to get him some talent. We all know how this game works if we win less than 5 games next year Bolton is gone.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Am I the only lunatic in the asylum who thinks Carlton would be positively nuts in paying the #1 draft pick for Dylan Shiel ?
Handy footballer but surely #1 is not in play for his services !!

I'd happily trade next years first even if it ends up being number 1. but while we have a nice talent base it still has too many holes to start going all in on free agents yet. need one more round of good young talent this year and then we start plugging the holes.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I'd happily trade next years first even if it ends up being number 1. but while we have a nice talent base it still has too many holes to start going all in on free agents yet. need one more round of good young talent this year and then we start plugging the holes.

Adding Shiel and good medical staff means we are guaranteed not to finish last again though.

Cripps Shiel Docherty Curnow - I expect all 4 to play as A-Graders or better next year. That's on top of natural improvement. I think we'd finish minimum 17th.

 

[thylacine60]

huge call

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

At least Juddy you can walk off and say I made this call and I did this

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Adding Shiel and good medical staff means we are guaranteed not to finish last again though.

Cripps Shiel Docherty Curnow - I expect all 4 to play as A-Graders or better next year. That's on top of natural improvement. I think we'd finish minimum 17th.

Loving the optimism, this thread needs more of that

 

[thylacine60]

some demented loons see us climbing as high as 16th - on which planet can I ask? fmd...........

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

This is the point Nori I agree totally. Bolton in particular will be screaming at Sos to get him some talent. We all know how this game works if we win less than 5 games next year Bolton is gone.

I tend to agree he is in a bit of trouble if we don't make a fairly sizeable step up the ladder next season.

 

[Pablito]

I hope we cool on McGovern. He just doesn't fit in for the price we'll pay imo.

Forwards for the foreseeable future.

Key: McKay, Curnow, Silvagni, Kerr, TDK (ruck).

Small: Garlett, Pickett, Polson.

Which list needs more attention?

 

[Juddernaut08]

I hope we cool on McGovern. He just doesn't fit in for the price we'll pay imo.

Forwards for the foreseeable future.

Key: McKay, Curnow, Silvagni, Kerr, TDK (ruck).

Small: Garlett, Pickett, Polson.

Which list needs more attention?

Smalls?

 

[Pablito]

Smalls?

Small forwards. I can't tell if you're being serious or facetious.

 

[Manhattanite]

Small forwards. I can't tell if you're being serious or facetious.

Why not both?


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[CsBlue]

If it came down to one or the other, I'd much rather Setterfield than Sheil. Similar to last year when most were willing to throw away pick 3 plus this years first for Kelly.

We're on the bottom not looking to add last pieces for a flag. Why throw away a chance to pickup a top pick as good as Sheil next year, who at that stage will be nearly 10 years younger.

And the old "you never go full Melbourne" well they're starting to look pretty good compared to the perpetual mid-range and top up teams.

 

[Manhattanite]

If it came down to one or the other, I'd much rather Setterfield than Sheil. Similar to last year when most were willing to throw away pick 3 plus this years first for Kelly.

We're on the bottom not looking to add last pieces for a flag. Why throw away a chance to pickup a top pick as good as Sheil next year, who at that stage will be nearly 10 years younger.

And the old "you never go full Melbourne" well they're starting to look pretty good compared to the perpetual mid-range and top up teams.

Agreed. While I would love to bring in Shiel and in fact am fine overpaying for him for the reasons I’ve mentioned previously (pasted below), I also want to bring in Setterfield and would be concerned if we can’t do that because we bring in Shiel. We need as much top end talent as possible and while Setterfield is no guarantee to become top end, he’s pretty likely and could easily end up our 3rd or 4th best mid in 2022 when Shiel will be past his peak. And if Setterfield is our 3rd best mid ahead of Dow and Fisher and SPS then watch out.



“Getting in Shiel now (and overpaying for him both in terms of draft picks and money) makes sense because
a) allows the younger mids get more protection and time to develop
b) takes some heat off Cripps
c) makes it easier to bring in other FAs and out of contract players in future years
d) brings in a fitness freak who will improve the training culture
e) brings in someone who will bleed blue like Docherty does as a lifelong supporter
f) makes it easier for Bolton to be able to instill his game plan into the team
g) denies *, hawks and saints another all Australian mid
h) excites the fan base and should lead to more competitive matches and wins in 2019
i) gives us an amazing father/son and father/daughter gene pool in the 2040s”




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https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/index.php?posts/57991768/


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[Juddernaut08]

Small forwards. I can't tell if you're being serious or facetious.

I was answering your rhetorical question lol - I think smalls are more priority/need more attention.

 

[Soapy V]

Carlton, Bolton and SOS don’t have another year. They need to demonstrate significant improvement in 2019.

I want SOS to go full beast mode during this year’s trade and draft periods. Don’t hold back!

I totally agree with line 2. This is the year we virtually finish off our list. Then its' about refreshing.

With the first line we do need to see improvement, no doubt and it will come. How much will depend upon trade period and injury list. Personally I expect a much improved 2019 in so many areas

 

[Soapy V]

This is the point Nori I agree totally. Bolton in particular will be screaming at Sos to get him some talent. We all know how this game works if we win less than 5 games next year Bolton is gone.

Too many variables to make that call

 

[Soapy V]

If it came down to one or the other, I'd much rather Setterfield than Sheil. Similar to last year when most were willing to throw away pick 3 plus this years first for Kelly.

We're on the bottom not looking to add last pieces for a flag. Why throw away a chance to pickup a top pick as good as Sheil next year, who at that stage will be nearly 10 years younger.

And the old "you never go full Melbourne" well they're starting to look pretty good compared to the perpetual mid-range and top up teams.

I have always liked the way Melbourne have gone about it. IMO it was right and well done. IT TAKES TIME. We are at least 2-3 years behind them.

If we add Setterfield McGovern Fasolo Newman Dunstan plus Walsh and some other good picks we are in a very good position. For all this talk about trades etc the REAL improvement will come from what we already have

 

[cfc05]

Mods - feel free to move to a trade thread if there is one more appropriate.

A clear message coming from Carlton fans over social media and this forum is get Walsh. So working on the assumption the majority of the football world want Lukosius, we should not be simply handing him to Pick 2. Gold Coast and Adelaide have both been extremely vocal about getting the big man through the doors, Adelaide have also commented about getting Rankine. I would not be taking Walsh pick 1, get some extra value on the pick and still get Walsh. Right now, that has to be through a trade with Gold Coast, so scenarios below play out. However, with their desperation to get senior bodies, wouldn't surprise me to see that pick move - Adelaide could get it if McGovern chooses Gold Coast (unlikely). Obviously the risk here is Walsh still goes one, and the hottest prospect in over a decade falls to pick 2 for us - not the biggest loss if we have also gained value on the trade from Pick 1 to 2.

Conservative:
Trade Pick 1, 25 and fringe player to Gold Cost for pick 2 and 12. See how much they want the big man?

Aggressive:
Trade Pick 1 and Weitering to Gold Coast for Pick 2 and 3. Gives them a marquee player at each end to build around. Throw in fringe players if they want them.
Trade pick 2 or 3 to Adelaide for Pick 7, McGovern and Betts.
Get Walsh with the other pick. Turn 1 and weiters in to Walsh, McGovern, Betts and pick 7.

Would also highly entertain trading one of McKay/Kerr/TDK if you got value - highly unlikely you would, but see if Brisbane/Freo or St Kilda would be interest in parting with their top pick. (Brisbane and Freo and outside chance)

Tempt Geelong with Kruezer and see how much they want to go for a flag with this current midfield, big weakness is ruck! First rounder or flounder without a ruckman. With a third rounder try and tempt Reilly O'Brien or Pruess as a long term number 1 ruck.

Most will baulk at trading any of our young key position players, however good list composition would have us getting rid of 3-4 talls this window at a minimum. Considering we are likely to get McGovern and Silvagni in, that becomes 5-6. If you can get value in a position where we have some relative strength, it is about list management and not purely a decision based on one player.

Fact is, our forward line will be built around Curnow and McGovern for next 10 years. Most teams don't have three talls, considering both these two are agile type talls we will have another tall with that set up, and they will likely play as a second ruck. I have confidence all three of McKay, Kerr and TDK can play that role, all bring something different to the table in that regard, with different strengths and weaknesses. Don't believe we need three of them fighting it out for that spot, so if you could get value for one, would be silly not too (Add B.Silvagni to that list if we draft him as a KF). In 2019, we will likely have 4 players minimum fighting for that 3rd tall spot, and in some games, conceivable none of them play - get the value now.

Backline we will build around Marchbank, for me we have plowman, rowe, Jones and Weiters, Williamson fighting for 2 spots, with a few others a chance in that role as well. (McGovern could also come in to the picture here)

If you got value for Weiters/Jones or Plowman, again you would have to consider it.

Most will disagree with the second half of this post, however it has the potential to catapult the rebuild.

 

[LanceRomance]

I have always liked the way Melbourne have gone about it. IMO it was right and well done. IT TAKES TIME. We are at least 2-3 years behind them.

If we add Setterfield McGovern Fasolo Newman Dunstan plus Walsh and some other good picks we are in a very good position. For all this talk about trades etc the REAL improvement will come from what we already have

At what point do you start Melbourne's rebuild?

 

[DIG]

Seems to me that we won't give anything away about who we like with pick 1 - have we even spoken to Walsh yet? And nor should we give anything away! Prefer Crows to think we want Lukosius.

As for Shiel, "2019 first rounder" just doesn't sound as bad as "2019 Pick 1" does it?

I hope we find a way to keep it and still get him, somehow. For Kelly yep. For Shiel....it's overs as a straight swap.

 

[blue healer]

I know serial killers who have more credibility than Ricky effing Nixon.

You know serial killers?

 

[blue healer]

The way I see the Shiel deal is that SOS won’t overpay. If he comes to us it will be for a fair deal. If he doesn’t it will force other clubs to pay overs. Win/Win

If we want Shiel, why is it a win if we don't get him but drive another clubs price up?

Does that mean we actually lose if we win his signature if another club has pushed the price up?