Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[The Smoking Gun]

Dragged it over to here JaB as it's more of a List Management issue.

[QUOTE="JustaBattler, post: 54598917, member: 132216"and Pickett gets me excited in open space or anywhere near the goals.[/QUOTE]


Really??? When I look at Fisher over the last 12 months I see fantastic growth & expansion in his game, but I just don't see that with Pickett tbh. Pickett's JLT series this year was very similar to last year.....the occasional burst of pace, half a dozen possessions, a goal here or there and negligible defensive pressure or accountability. Given that he still can't go through the middle does he actually do enough that it would stop you having a look at what Garlett & Lang have to offer instead??? With any luck the competition for spots between Lamb, Cuningham, Garlett, Pickett & Lang will naturally drive growth and development in their games.

 

[Bluey24]

Great news on Paddy


Overall, however, I would rate this pre-season 6/10 .......

Losing our only All Australian to an ACL is a massive blow, coupled with injuries to Pickett, Garlett, Kreuzer, Williamson, and Lang

Some exciting signs in Dow, Kennedy, Cripps, Jones - but can't deny it hasn't been an ideal preparation

 

[JustaBattler]

[QUOTE="JustaBattler, post: 54598917, member: 132216"and Pickett gets me excited in open space or anywhere near the goals.[/QUOTE]
Really??? When I look at Fisher over the last 12 months I see fantastic growth & expansion in his game, but I just don't see that with Pickett tbh. Pickett's JLT series this year was very similar to last year.....the occasional burst of pace, half a dozen possessions, a goal here or there and negligible defensive pressure or accountability. Given that he still can't go through the middle does he actually do enough that it would stop you having a look at what Garlett & Lang have to offer instead??? With any luck the competition for spots between Lamb, Cuningham, Garlett, Pickett & Lang will naturally drive growth and development in their games.[/QUOTE]

I do rate Fisher higher - even though I think his tackling needs to improve a lot.

However, I really value the type of electric pace Pickett brings to the game plan against hawthorn I think he actually had a break out game even though it was JLT - he created a goal from nothing 1 on 1 against Sicily around the boundary, he created a goal by positioning himself in open space to receive a chaos torpedo from SOJ and he walked through a crowded congested contested ball situation to kick a goal again - he was also involved in numerous other efforts which led to goals. I think Pickett showed he was capable of 'owning' an empty forward 50 space and making somethign happen - very very rare and dangerous type player.

I look forward to Garlett showing similar traits and I think Lang 'could' be a very valuable midfield contributer as for Cuningham I am a big fan but Bolton seems to be struggling to find a place to use him - atm he seems destined for rotation duties in the backline as a HBF.

Sadly for Pickett - his broken wrist will set him back (again) as far as match fitness goes into the second half of this year CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!!! and Carlton loses the super speed danger he offers.

Agree competition for spots will help greatly - but Pickett is very special and with the right development and a run of fitness could be anything - maybe even a better jeff garlett - who is busy carving up opposition defenses week in week out for Melbourne ( still burns me up losing him for nothing)

 

[ferrisb]

Great news on Paddy

Seeing this more and more across the league; rookie players extending their contracts by 2-3 years super early in career (often before they debut).

Obviously player retention is a factor, but I assume it is more to do with salary cap management.

Young player (eg Dow) supposed to be on bugger all wages in year 1 & 2. Then presumably a decent jump year 3 onwards before he demands big $ in maybe season 5-6 onwards. By extending contract early, you can presumably spread wages more evenly across years, effectively front-loading draftee contracts. It's pretty much a win-win.

Player: gets contract certainty, more money upfront, more consistent salary (which is also more tax effective)
Club: locks in player, can be more creative with salary cap management
Weakness: the player could lose motivation when they have a long-term deal in place.

For Carlton, we have done quite a bit of this recently. I assume it's managing (front-loading) the cap is the main game.

As for Dow, he looks like a hungry and hardworking type - I don't think that will be an issue. Same goes for others on long-term contracts like Weiters, Samo etc.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Seeing this more and more across the league; rookie players extending their contracts by 2-3 years super early in career (often before they debut).

Obviously player retention is a factor, but I assume it is more to do with salary cap management.

Young player (eg Dow) supposed to be on bugger all wages in year 1 & 2. Then presumably a decent jump year 3 onwards before he demands big $ in maybe season 5-6 onwards. By extending contract early, you can presumably spread wages more evenly across years, effectively front-loading draftee contracts. It's pretty much a win-win.

Player: gets contract certainty, more money upfront, more consistent salary (which is also more tax effective)
Club: locks in player, can be more creative with salary cap management
Weakness: the player could lose motivation when they have a long-term deal in place.

For Carlton, we have done quite a bit of this recently. I assume it's managing (front-loading) the cap is the main game.

As for Dow, he looks like a hungry and hardworking type - I don't think that will be an issue. Same goes for others on long-term contracts like Weiters, Samo etc.

You can't pay the draftees above what the going rate is in years 1 and 2 though. When the Bulldogs got Boyd on that mega deal, they still had to pay him $80K or whatever it was in his first year there (second in AFL). You can't utilise those first 2 years to effectively front load the contact.

 

[ferrisb]

You can't pay the draftees above what the going rate is in years 1 and 2 though. When the Bulldogs got Boyd on that mega deal, they still had to pay him $80K or whatever it was in his first year there (second in AFL). You can't utilise those first 2 years to effectively front load the contact.

Yeah, I thought of that.

But I'm wondering whether you can allocate some of the cash anyway. I had a feeling your allocation of salary cap across the contract doesn't have to correspond to actual timing of cash payments.....

 

[Benaly28]

Great news on Paddy


Overall, however, I would rate this pre-season 6/10 .......

Losing our only All Australian to an ACL is a massive blow, coupled with injuries to Pickett, Garlett, Kreuzer, Williamson, and Lang

Some exciting signs in Dow, Kennedy, Cripps, Jones - but can't deny it hasn't been an ideal preparation

Garlett and Kreuzer will be right to go whilst willo and Lang maybe another week don’t think that’s too bad considering.Pickett along with docs our only long term.

 

[ShanDog]

Yeah, I thought of that.

But I'm wondering whether you can allocate some of the cash anyway. I had a feeling your allocation of salary cap across the contract doesn't have to correspond to actual timing of cash payments.....

With the amount of player movements that result in unfulfilled contracts and changes to payments through injury, status changes and other quirks like the draftee contracts, I reckon they would have to be able to allocate funds separate to the contract itself, as long as it's all accounted for. Would be an absolutely headache to track, manage and analyse the player payments for us mere mortals*, especially when you consider there are so many incentive payments that are included in contracts which change the overall amounts paid.

*That's non-accountant type super geeks who are clearly from another planet

 

[ferrisb]

With the amount of player movements that result in unfulfilled contracts and changes to payments through injury, status changes and other quirks like the draftee contracts, I reckon they would have to be able to allocate funds separate to the contract itself, as long as it's all accounted for. Would be an absolutely headache to track, manage and analyse the player payments for us mere mortals*, especially when you consider there are so many incentive payments that are included in contracts which change the overall amounts paid.

*That's non-accountant type super geeks who are clearly from another planet

I don't think it would be too difficult, but I can understand how it could be for mere mortals.

I guess in the same way for us accountant super geek types, it can be an absolute headache to track societal norms, fashion trends, body language cues and to exhibit socially-acceptable behaviour in public.

 

[JustaBattler]

With the amount of player movements that result in unfulfilled contracts and changes to payments through injury, status changes and other quirks like the draftee contracts, I reckon they would have to be able to allocate funds separate to the contract itself, as long as it's all accounted for. Would be an absolutely headache to track, manage and analyse the player payments for us mere mortals*, especially when you consider there are so many incentive payments that are included in contracts which change the overall amounts paid.

*That's non-accountant type super geeks who are clearly from another planet

The Club could hire an experienced hedge fund type to maybe gift ( for say a signed jumper from all players) a fairly vanilla portfolio management system to do this - as it is fairly trivial stuff to be honest. All you are doing is managing fixed charges with a number of put and call options on the side over a maximum of what is it 46 players positions( players).

Look, for a cup of coffee, I'd include some monte carlo scenario analysis, for future planning - with binary option pricing modelling thrown in for a cube of sugar.

 

[ShanDog]

The Club could hire an experienced hedge fund type to maybe gift ( for say a signed jumper from all players) a fairly vanilla portfolio management system to do this - as it is fairly trivial stuff to be honest. All you are doing is managing fixed charges with a number of put and call options on the side over a maximum of what is it 46 players positions( players).

Look, for a cup of coffee, I'd include some monte carlo scenario analysis, for future planning - with binary option pricing modelling thrown in for a cube of sugar.

Oh yeah? Well I have a shiny card that gives me money when I put it in a hole in the wall and then I buy things with it. SO ner.

 

[ferrisb]

Oh yeah? Well I have a shiny card that gives me money when I put it in a hole in the wall and then I buy things with it. SO ner.

C'mon Shan. You're deeper than that. I know you're studying something serious and can talk philosophy til things get 'Descartesing'....

Plus also, I feel like it's wise not to start patronising someone who is ~6'5" and has extensive experience with guns.

 

[ShanDog]

C'mon Shan. You're deeper than that. I know you're studying something serious and can talk philosophy til things get 'Descartesing'....

Plus also, I feel like it's wise not start patronising someone who is ~6'5" and has extensive experience with guns.

Bah, I'm a teddy bear!

 

[ShanDog]

And they won't let me take the guns home anyway

 

[katmanblue]

BigFooty.com mobile app[/URL]

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Seeing this more and more across the league; rookie players extending their contracts by 2-3 years super early in career (often before they debut).

Obviously player retention is a factor, but I assume it is more to do with salary cap management.

Young player (eg Dow) supposed to be on bugger all wages in year 1 & 2. Then presumably a decent jump year 3 onwards before he demands big $ in maybe season 5-6 onwards. By extending contract early, you can presumably spread wages more evenly across years, effectively front-loading draftee contracts. It's pretty much a win-win.

Player: gets contract certainty, more money upfront, more consistent salary (which is also more tax effective)
Club: locks in player, can be more creative with salary cap management
Weakness: the player could lose motivation when they have a long-term deal in place.

For Carlton, we have done quite a bit of this recently. I assume it's managing (front-loading) the cap is the main game.

As for Dow, he looks like a hungry and hardworking type - I don't think that will be an issue. Same goes for others on long-term contracts like Weiters, Samo etc.

Brisbane quick to extend Rayner as retention a massive issue that club. McCluggage signed on again for 3 years too. Hipwood and others extended.

Brayshaw extended at Fremantle, Dow with us and LDU with North Melbourne, so the top 4 draftees.

Andy McKay says next 2 ‘gentlemen’ are Charlie Curnow (currently to 2019) and Murphy (currently end of this year).

Marchbank is another likely extension early in the Season IMO.

SOS will want flexibility to snaffle a Shiel or a Kelly ...

 

[The Bighouse]

Andy McKay says next 2 ‘gentlemen’ are Charlie Curnow (currently to 2019) and Murphy (currently end of this year).

Marchbank is another likely extension early in the Season IMO.

SOS will want flexibility to snaffle a Shiel or a Kelly ...

From an earlier mention of contracts, think you can throw P.Cripps into the mix as well to tie up throughout the year (hopefully).

 

[JustaBattler]

Thomas was a skinny runt at the same age as Dow....

 

[StandByyourMan]

Daisy is in for a big year. Mark my words.

 

[JustaBattler]

Daisy is in for a big year. Mark my words.

define 'big'...

 

[StandByyourMan]

define 'big'...

Can I come back to you on that?

 

[StandByyourMan]

He will defy predictions of a decline and be a solid contributor.

 

[AceAndy]

Daisy is in for a big year. Mark my words.

Do you follow the Northern Blues ?

 

[LanceRomance]

define 'big'...

I have no doubt he will get a contract extension

 

[AceAndy]

I have no doubt he will get a contract extension

Are you referring to Thomas ? That would be unlikely imo.