
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
- Thread starter
- #126
Now's as good a time as any to recap the changes we've just made to the list, and what that means for the 2019 AFLW side.
Alongside that, we might as well take a look at my predictions from early March.
Plane and Audley survived where I felt perhaps they shouldn't, but they have been soldiers for the footy club and deserve a crack as much as anyone.
Ultimately the talent drain didn't remove an as-yet key player aside from Hardiman, who I saw as a bit of an odd fit as the AFLW progresses athletically in 2019. Losing both her and Gillespie-Jones was a huge blow for our key defensive stocks given the age of Downie and the state of Davey coming into this season, but we've more than made up for that by targeting Van Dyk, Wilson, Edwards, Barden and Watt.
Gay was another disappointing loss, but Maddie Prespakis more than replaces her, with Barden as senior depth. Van Dyk and Edwards should directly replace Gillespie-Jones and Hardiman, with the possibility of Abbie McKay pitching in a little as needed. The most fortunate thing is that the depth players we retained from last season, should remain as such this season thanks to the quality of the mature-aged additions.
We're still lacking in elite pace from our smaller players in each area of the ground, but Emerson Woods presents as a long term option for that, and will likely see a fair bit of senior time having done so well for this year's VFLW premiers in Hawthorn. She's reasonably tall for a mid and basically reads like Simmo, right down to being a Carlton supporter.
Interestingly we've opted for another senior ruck in Watt, and this soldifies Downie's role in defence, while allowing Moody to rotate forward much more often.
We've still got 1 spot on the list, which by passing the draft means we have access to a signing period where we can sign an undrafted player from anywhere. The most glaring need we have is likely a genuine small forward to give some zip alongside the work Tayla and Darcy will be doing for us in 2019.
Right now the 22 projects like this:
FB: Pound, Van Dyk
HB: Stevens, Downie, Edwards
C: McKay, Prespakis, Harrington
HF: Vescio, Harris, Gee
FF: Moody, Loynes
R: Watt, Davey, S.Hosking
Int: Wilson, Barden, J.Hosking, Woods, <final signing>
Code-hopping rookies Dalton and Walker should inject pace and toughness, particularly Dalton, but I don't think they're directly available for selection unless we leave that list position open, or an LTI occurs.
Moving over to our depth for 2019, you can see that our defensive stocks will be covered by Brazzale, Kennedy and Hicks, while Audley, Lucas-Rodd and Plane will keep the midfield options ticking over. Webb will present as a forward/midfield option over time.
So another year rolls by, and pace is still a concern, but in reality there wasn't much more we could do to address this given the way the talent pool fell. Hopefully something bobs up nicely in the signing period, where we're only competing with Melbourne and Fremantle to sign talent from around the country. That naturally implies all three will be looking at everywhere but WA and Victoria for talent, save for those who nominated Geelong only.
Alongside that, we might as well take a look at my predictions from early March.
Sure enough, Keeping was sacked and we didn't get pick 1 despite finishing stone cold last. In my opinion, that's cost us Sophie Van De Heuvel, who has the skillset to be the AFLW's version of Judd if she can get her footy IQ up to scratch. She's a dual athlete with cricket being her other love, so perhaps that's a blessing in disguise given she racks up the runs in the T20 format.With one game to play, a likely outgoing coach, and two Victorian teams entering the league next season, we're in a real struggle to retain talent next year.
We're also bottoming out (literally last right now) at a time where we might find ourselves not holding the number 1 pick, leaving us to wait and see what hand we're dealt after 2-4 players head out the door.
Here I was hoping Hardiman, Hicks and Brazzale would have been enough bait for the Victorian clubs, but in the end North swooped on Hardiman and took Gillespie-Jones with her, decimating our senior defensive mix.Retirement beckons: Loynes, Arnell, Attard, Shierlaw, Audley, Downie
Optimal outcome: Loynes and Downie retained
Synopsis: Shierlaw played like she didn't maintain fitness over the off-season, while Arnell, Attard and Audley are creaking to the finish line. Loynes and Downie might be touch and go, but they're people you don't want to walk out of your football club, even though Loynes knees can't be in great condition.
Expansion club bait: Hicks, Hardiman, Keryk, Brazzale
Optimal outcome: Hicks, Hardiman and Brazzale tally to 100 points (current compensation target)
Synopsis: I'm sure many other names will be canvased, but we need to hold onto our talent for dear life. Brazzale, Hicks and Hardiman represent decent players in roles that we have in surplus and/or can re-draft. Keryk might have shown just enough to stay if she can lift her fitness standards for 2019, and probably won't attract value here.
Delist: Last, Plane
Synopsis: We have way too many players that project as small/medium defenders, and Plane and Last are two who have shown a limited combination of attacking flair, run and skill.
Plane and Audley survived where I felt perhaps they shouldn't, but they have been soldiers for the footy club and deserve a crack as much as anyone.
Obviously this side has a few more changes than what I was expecting, but I predicted Keryk, Grieve and Cochrane were on the chopping block. Another factor here is the changes to the list structure, that being a senior list of 28 (up from 26), and what was effectively the Cat A rookie list has been removed, resulting in one less listed player than what was possible last year.Projected 2019 side:
FB: Pound Gillespie-Jones
HB: <???> Downie Stevens
C: Gee Harrington <???>
HF: Gay Harris Vescio
FF: <???> <???>
R: Moody Davey S.Hosking
Int: J.Hosking, Li, Kennedy, Loynes, <???>
Synopsis: There's a gaping hole when it comes to quicker players and solid KPF options to allow Harris to roam, but there is a solid core to be develop upon.
Moving Bri's ball winning ability into midfield will open up a lot of space for our other balanced mids and should be a huge priority, along with developing Vescio's running capacity so she can slip into the midfield to help unlock things for our other forwards.
Remaining depth: Grieve, Webb, Cochrane, Keryk, Lucas-Rodd
Synopsis: Grieve, Cochrane and Webb are all under 21, while Keryk is developmental depth in our short-staffed midfield. Lucas-Rodd is also young, but really really really really really really needs to work on her game sense and kicking.
Unfortunately we probably cannot cut any deeper than this in one season. Assuming they survive the cut, I expect Grieve and Cochrane to be elevated to allow us 2 more code-hopping rookie signings.
Number of suggested list changes (including rookies): 9
Wish list for first 21:
2x Outside Mids (1 elite, 1 above average)
1x small forward (elite pace/agility combo with genuine scoring capability)
1x small defender (running defender with elite pace and quality foot skills)
1x key position forward (mature ager, can kick straight)
Synopsis: I'm hoping Grieve will be the above average outside mid, while we'll probably need to go to the draft and pluck a recent U18 graduate, or snag a code hopper to find that elite talent we need to inject into our midfield mix.
The real struggle is where to find that elite defender, as it will effectively be another elite mid, just with mildly reduced endurance requirements, and we really lack someone with the correct combination of skills to break the game open from half back. Hopefully we can dig up a code hopper here too, but it looms as a glaring problem for 2019.
The forward positions are relatively specialist roles, and as such we should be able to scoop talent from the Victorian pool despite two more teams entering.
Further depth/development acquisitions (one of each): ruck, KPD, KPF, tall inside mid, outside mid
Expected selections: 5 national draft, 2 rookies
Expected trades: NONE
Synopsis: Having moved Bri to the midfield, it may start to trend how AFLW midfields work more towards the men's game, so we should look to get ahead of the pack we'll create and scoop up a diamond in the rough in terms of a tall contested ball winner with a later draft pick.
A developmental ruck would be nice to allow Kennedy to find her natural position without that pressure, and we'll need to grab a tall for either end after sending Hardiman and Shierlaw out the door and Bri to midfield.
It's probably a two year project to rebuild the list, but there are opportunities for us to mildly fast track that in a safe manner, and also create some trade value for the 2019 off-season. Whoever's left of the football staff will be in the fight of their career to ensure our talent drain is along these lines, and not dramatically worse.
Ultimately the talent drain didn't remove an as-yet key player aside from Hardiman, who I saw as a bit of an odd fit as the AFLW progresses athletically in 2019. Losing both her and Gillespie-Jones was a huge blow for our key defensive stocks given the age of Downie and the state of Davey coming into this season, but we've more than made up for that by targeting Van Dyk, Wilson, Edwards, Barden and Watt.
Gay was another disappointing loss, but Maddie Prespakis more than replaces her, with Barden as senior depth. Van Dyk and Edwards should directly replace Gillespie-Jones and Hardiman, with the possibility of Abbie McKay pitching in a little as needed. The most fortunate thing is that the depth players we retained from last season, should remain as such this season thanks to the quality of the mature-aged additions.
We're still lacking in elite pace from our smaller players in each area of the ground, but Emerson Woods presents as a long term option for that, and will likely see a fair bit of senior time having done so well for this year's VFLW premiers in Hawthorn. She's reasonably tall for a mid and basically reads like Simmo, right down to being a Carlton supporter.
Interestingly we've opted for another senior ruck in Watt, and this soldifies Downie's role in defence, while allowing Moody to rotate forward much more often.
We've still got 1 spot on the list, which by passing the draft means we have access to a signing period where we can sign an undrafted player from anywhere. The most glaring need we have is likely a genuine small forward to give some zip alongside the work Tayla and Darcy will be doing for us in 2019.
Right now the 22 projects like this:
FB: Pound, Van Dyk
HB: Stevens, Downie, Edwards
C: McKay, Prespakis, Harrington
HF: Vescio, Harris, Gee
FF: Moody, Loynes
R: Watt, Davey, S.Hosking
Int: Wilson, Barden, J.Hosking, Woods, <final signing>
Code-hopping rookies Dalton and Walker should inject pace and toughness, particularly Dalton, but I don't think they're directly available for selection unless we leave that list position open, or an LTI occurs.
Moving over to our depth for 2019, you can see that our defensive stocks will be covered by Brazzale, Kennedy and Hicks, while Audley, Lucas-Rodd and Plane will keep the midfield options ticking over. Webb will present as a forward/midfield option over time.
So another year rolls by, and pace is still a concern, but in reality there wasn't much more we could do to address this given the way the talent pool fell. Hopefully something bobs up nicely in the signing period, where we're only competing with Melbourne and Fremantle to sign talent from around the country. That naturally implies all three will be looking at everywhere but WA and Victoria for talent, save for those who nominated Geelong only.
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