Bumped 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

Lore

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Dec 14, 2015
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The third live trade to go through last night was as follows;

Crows receive: A future round 1 pick (Carlton)
Blues receive: Pick 19 and a future round 1 pick (Adelaide)
 

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james Dean

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Imagine if Carlton finished last and Adelaide finish top four.
Pick 1 for around 15-18.
Definitely a risk, but I'd be surprised if the Crows finish top 4 next year. Top 8 is a possibility but I don't think they will get back there.

Either way pick 1-4 for ~10 and 19 is still a gamble by the blues
 

Blues_Man

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http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/the-blues-and-crows-trade-how-the-numbers-stack-up


Of course, the obvious risk is that Carlton endures another season to forget in 2019. A bottom-place finish would obviously leave them without the coveted pick No.1.

But based on the AFL's Draft Value Index (DVI), the Blues will accrue more value from the deal should it finish 14th or above next year – regardless of the Crows' fortunes.

Even if Adelaide wins the flag – which is arguably a bigger 'if' than Carlton finishing 14th on the ladder – the Blues will have gained more DVI points than they will lose from the trade.

Under this hypothetical, the cumulative total of this year's pick No.19 and next year's pick No.18 is 1933 DVI points. The total value of next year's pick No.5 – should the Blues finish 14th – is just 1878 DVI points.
 

adammania9

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I usually don’t rate SOS but I’m a fan of this trade. I for one don’t think Adelaide are going back up the ladder and Carlton clearly have enough on-field upside to score themselves 6-8 wins.

Rebuild is sped up and it puts some confidence in a struggling club. Fortune favours the brave.
 

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Moo

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Obviously you back in your List Manager, Blues obviously rate Stocker and potentially don't overly rate Adelaide next year.

I do wonder if SOS dangled the 2019 first during trade week, it's not as though Stocker being present at pick 19 was some sort of shock drop - can't help but wonder if it would of been more valuable during trade week?

Hope it works - shit like this gets list managers fired.
 

Mr_Plow

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That was a good trade by the Blues. I can see Carlton finishing 10-12 next year. Adelaide are an uncertainty and probably 7-8 next year
I see it very similarly.

Carlton could very easily finish above the likes of Gold Coast, St. Kilda and Fremantle, given a favourable injury run.

The likes of Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide are either declining from successful periods or in a state of limbo sitting around the 6-10th position. A few of these teams will have poor seasons, just going by the odds.
 
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Obviously you back in your List Manager, Blues obviously rate Stocker and potentially don't overly rate Adelaide next year.

I do wonder if SOS dangled the 2019 first during trade week, it's not as though Stocker being present at pick 19 was some sort of shock drop - can't help but wonder if it would of been more valuable during trade week?

Hope it works - shit like this gets list managers fired.
We did dangle it for Shiel. When the Setterfield trade was done, we had to get a 2nd rounder back in order to trade the 1st.
 

Drewie11

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Great move by Adelaide, Carlton with a 2 game winning year

Yes they added some talent but not much really

McGovern was struggling to be in best 22 at the end of the year and is a bit injury prone

Newman was on the edge of best 22 at Sydney

Setterfield has pretty much not played a game of footy for 2 years

Fasolo couldn’t get a game at the pies either with all their injuries. I think he will be their best pick up next year

The best for Carlton will be getting Docherty back and natural progression of all their young players. They needed help for Cripps and didn’t get it.

In my opinion they will be better than last year but not by much. I think they will finish 17th above Gold Coast. I just can’t see them being above anyone else.
 

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