Bumped 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

SickQwon

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If Adelaide get 3 firsts then legit they have won this trade so hard. Doesn't mean that Carlton have screwed themselves, they may still turn out to be winners as well depending on Stocker and what they get with Adelaide's first this year.

Though I will say its a fortunate set of circumstances for Adelaide. I doubt they knew that GWS would have an academy pick that would fall just into this range where they would have an opportunity to get a trade that would normally be quite one sided but works out purely because of the academy points system and GWS's desire to prioritise 2 more elite talents rather than having a few decent picks but not as early.
Option 1: Tom Papley + Jack Martin + Liam Stocker
or
Option 2: Pick 12 + 18 and GWS 2020 1st rounder

I'd say a club rebuilding their list like Adelaide would take the second option.
A club that needs to top up their list like Carlton would take the first option.
 

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blitzer

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Option 1: Tom Papley + Jack Martin + Liam Stocker
or
Option 2: Pick 12 + 18 and GWS 2020 1st rounder

I'd say a club rebuilding their list like Adelaide would take the second option.
A club that needs to top up their list like Carlton would take the first option.
Perhaps but you're also assuming that you complete trades for Papley and Martin without giving up anything extra as well.

I think most clubs would prefer option 2 to be honest. Costs minimal salary cap and much more opportunity to address structural needs. The only clubs that would really want option 1 would be the ones that are desperately short of small forwards and outside pace.

The club that took option 2 would have enough money to go after a pretty good free agent as well. Whilst this is outside the direct evaluation of the trade you can be sure list managers look at things like this. GWS are the perfect example of a club that is continually recyclng players and lower picks into higher draft picks plus making use of salary cap dumps to free up space whilst still being able to bring in elite talent. Which is the exact reason why GWS have a ridiculous top 10 players at the club despite losing players of the calibre of Treloar and Shiel.

As time goes on I think the pendulum will start to shift towards draft picks again as clubs will love the idea of getting a talented youngster and then having a few years of more cap space to go after a quality free agent without even giving up any draft currency.
 

RobR

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Perhaps but you're also assuming that you complete trades for Papley and Martin without giving up anything extra as well.

I think most clubs would prefer option 2 to be honest. Costs minimal salary cap and much more opportunity to address structural needs. The only clubs that would really want option 1 would be the ones that are desperately short of small forwards and outside pace.

The club that took option 2 would have enough money to go after a pretty good free agent as well. Whilst this is outside the direct evaluation of the trade you can be sure list managers look at things like this. GWS are the perfect example of a club that is continually recyclng players and lower picks into higher draft picks plus making use of salary cap dumps to free up space whilst still being able to bring in elite talent. Which is the exact reason why GWS have a ridiculous top 10 players at the club despite losing players of the calibre of Treloar and Shiel.

As time goes on I think the pendulum will start to shift towards draft picks again as clubs will love the idea of getting a talented youngster and then having a few years of more cap space to go after a quality free agent without even giving up any draft currency.
Carlton have been doing just that for the last few years, now are ready to take the next step.
 

La Dispute

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Read my post. I don’t think any club would be kicking themselves about not trading for Stocker.

My view on Liam hasn’t changed. Seems a likely Bastinac type. Although his first year hasn’t been as productive as Ryan’s.
They have nothing in common.

Bastinac was a prococious junior who came in and impacted straight away, but always had a low ceiling. He’s also always had average disposable.

Stocker by comparison is currently low production but reasonably high impact, and his disposal is very good. And he’s incredibly quick over the first few steps.

It’s part and parcel to undermine a player by comparing them to some over the hill fringe player on Bigfooty so I’m not surprised we’re getting these erroneous suggestions. I still recall some nuffie comparing Sam Walsh to Chris Masten over the pre-season.
 

Skull Face

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No way they turn 9 into both
Swans want 9 alone
9 + future 3rd will get both, sydney will probably give us 25 for that future 3rd which will be enough for martin.

Its a win win trade for both, sydney need points for academy selections next year and we need a low 2nd for martin so they basically get 9 for papley. Push comes to shove it might be our future 2nd for their 25.
 

SickQwon

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Wasn’t this trade supposed to be a genius move because SOS was definitely turning pick 9 into gun ready-made players?

Turns out it was just pick 4 for picks 9 and 19.

Meh.
Had a crack, couldn't get anyone to bite. You wouldn't expect that no teams would trade for a top 10 pick in a 1 years time. Yet here we are.
 

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Marcel Proust

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Had a crack, couldn't get anyone to bite. You wouldn't expect that no teams would trade for a top 10 pick in a 1 years time. Yet here we are.
martin and 15 for 9 looks pretty tasty

the PR campaign about turning last years pick into Stocker, Martin, and 15 would have been epic

zeggie would never get off the computer
 

SickQwon

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martin and 15 for 9 looks pretty tasty

the PR campaign about turning last years pick into Stocker, Martin, and 15 would have been epic
It was actually Martin + 15 for 9 and 2020 2nd rounder. The GC manager said and its on the AFL website.

Martin we'll get for free in the PSD anyway.
 

Skull Face

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Wasn’t this trade supposed to be a genius move because SOS was definitely turning pick 9 into gun ready-made players?

Turns out it was just pick 4 for picks 9 and 19.

Meh.
You are assuming we use it at the draft, this draft appears to only have 3 players in it that would have went in last year's 1st round as well.
 

Drewie11

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With the recent acquisition of the GWS 2020 first round pick it seems that Adelaide can’t lose this trade. On points if the picks stay as is then Adelaide wins

Young Reid does it again, fast becoming one of the best list managers going around


So what does this all mean? The Crows cannot ‘lose’ the trade, as per the index.

THE ‘STOCKER TRADE’ POINTS
Carlton: 2018 Pick 19 (948 points) + 2019 Pick 9 (1469) = 2417
Adelaide: 2019 Pick 6 (1751) + 2020 first-round pick tied to GWS’ finishing position (between Pick 1 (3000 points) and Pick 19* (948 points)) = At the very least 2699
 

branedotorg

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With the recent acquisition of the GWS 2020 first round pick it seems that Adelaide can’t lose this trade. On points if the picks stay as is then Adelaide wins

Young Reid does it again, fast becoming one of the best list managers going around


So what does this all mean? The Crows cannot ‘lose’ the trade, as per the index.

THE ‘STOCKER TRADE’ POINTS
Carlton: 2018 Pick 19 (948 points) + 2019 Pick 9 (1469) = 2417
Adelaide: 2019 Pick 6 (1751) + 2020 first-round pick tied to GWS’ finishing position (between Pick 1 (3000 points) and Pick 19* (948 points)) = At the very least 2699
how do you factor in two years of development (+/-) and relative draft strength?
 

Drewie11

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how do you factor in two years of development (+/-) and relative draft strength?
2 years of development???? Didn’t the trade happen last year?

Nobody knows which players in the drafts are stronger. That’s a question for 10years later.

My point is that on points Adelaide is the winner of this trade and that’s all we can measure at the moment. That is a win for Reid
 

Monkey King

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It’s all about points and Adelaide can’t lose now if the picks stay as is.
Points say you let McGovern go for a net gain of McAdam and circa pick 35. Sometimes points can a useful guide; other times not so much.

In this case, Carlton weren’t trading for points, they were trading for a specific player they thought was worth more than the “points” it would cost to acquire him. This deal is all about the players. If Stocker, or even RCD or Hill for example, wind up better than whoever you take this draft, it’s gonna look pretty shabby.

GWS’ future first could be well into the 20’s by the time it’s executed. Doesn’t really matter, I assume the Crows reckon whoever they have their eye on will be there at pick 6, so next it’s really just a free pick for them regardless.
 

Drewie11

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Points say you let McGovern go for a net gain of McAdam and circa pick 35. Sometimes points can a useful guide; other times not so much.

In this case, Carlton weren’t trading for points, they were trading for a specific player they thought was worth more than the “points” it would cost to acquire him. This deal is all about the players. If Stocker, or even RCD or Hill for example, wind up better than whoever you take this draft, it’s gonna look pretty shabby.

GWS’ future first could be well into the 20’s by the time it’s executed. Doesn’t really matter, I assume the Crows reckon whoever they have their eye on will be there at pick 6, so next it’s really just a free pick for them regardless.
The crows gave pick 40 and McGovern and got pick 13 and McAdam. If you are basing it off of points it equates to pick 24 roughly. Not sure where 35 is coming from?

On points this deal is in favour of the crows, that’s the only thing we can go by soat the moment Reid has done a great job getting better value out of the trade
 

Monkey King

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The crows gave pick 40 and McGovern and got pick 13 and McAdam. If you are basing it off of points it equates to pick 24 roughly. Not sure where 35 is coming from?
Pick 40 went to the Swans. The Crows also gave another pick to Carlton.

Just do what you did with the above deal. Add up all the Crows received (McAdam & 1212 points), minus all they put in (McGovern & picks 40 & 54, circa 650 points) - that’s McGovern out for McAdam and about 562 points (pick 33-ish) in.

I know. It doesn’t sound right, does it? But they’re the facts. Sometimes points are a useful guide, sometimes in isolation, they’re downright misleading.
 
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