This is it precisely.No, I think the lost generation is exactly that now- wearing different coloured beanies. The improvement will come from generation next, wearing the Cripps, Charlie, Wieters, Samo and Paddy numbers on the back. A few Darcy, Bri and Taylas as well. I think our first goal should be 60k, not 70- there is a lot to like about the current list, I haven't said that for many a year.
We may have 460k followers, as per the Roy Morgan poll, but my experience from living in Vic, NSW & Qld is that we have a significant number of followers who identify with the club, but have never attended a game, never purchased a membership & don't watch our games religiously on TV (I can point to approximately a dozen relatives of mine that fit at least one of these categories).
Many of these followers became followers due to our success of the '70s & '80s which saw us having plenty of TV exposure both in Victoria & other states on The Winners or the Channel 7 Football Replay. Everybody loves a winner & if you have to attach yourself to a footy team for social purposes, a winning team, with lots of well known names is a no brainer (there was a stack of Hawks followers around after the 70s & 80s & yet they went with a whisker of a merger with Melbourne in the mid 90s). These people were never destined to become members though & as our star has faded, some no longer identify as Carlton followers, preferring to only identify with other sports they may follow.
On the basis of the above, I believe the 50k members we have been achieving over the last few years is a good indication of how many 'rusted on' supporters we actually have. There may be some who are holding out until we start stringing together some success, but I suspect this may only account for a few thousand supporters. Realistically we now have to look to the younger generation if we are to significantly grow our numbers. These may well be kids whose parents support other AFL clubs, but who are captivated by some of the Carlton names you have mentioned (possibly throw Pickett & Garlett into the mix as well) & jump on the bandwagon when the club starts playing finals on a regular basis. We have unfortunately missed out on a significant chunk of the previous generation due to our lack of success & lack of players who have been household names or names that excite (Fev, Judd & not much else).