Opinion 2018 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

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dazbroncos

dazbroncos

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2018 brings a new calendar, another Star Wars movie and more hope to the Cats...

Can we make another Prelim and get past it this time? Will GAJ make a difference and more importantly, whom in the junior ranks coming thru should be on our radar this year..

Also, we have some FS's with some great GFC family names in Brownless, Hocking, Mensch and Scott under consideration.

And it seems we traded some picks to gain points for the 2018 draft as well... and we have our Rd1 pick..

Will be interesting to see how it develops...

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Bailey Scott looks like a very good player.

Need to watch Sam Walsh from the Falcons, will be out of reach with our first pick, unless he has a major injury and slides.

Oscar Brownless looks like a player in the Pick 30-55 range; hopefully he gets more midfield minutes, but so far mainly is a back flanker.

Still very early days, will have a better view a few rounds into the TAC season.
 
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From the little I know and have read, Scott seems to be the most unlikely of the FS options - he has North and GCS or BL as options I think.

Hope we get a serious look at him.

And Mensch is the 4th one this year I think.

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dazbroncos said:
From the little I know and have read, Scott seems to be the most unlikely of the FS options - he has North and GCS or BL as options I think.

Hope we get a serious look at him.

And Mensch is the 4th one this year I think.

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Scott is North f/s and GC academy. Be interesting to see if he actually wants to go to the Suns, it certainly wouldn't seem like the most appealing choice.
 
Brownless should be draftable be interesting to see how Mensch goes as to whether he looks draftable. I wonder if we target both Dahlhaus and his cousin. Be interested to see how Cooper Stephens goes and Ethan Floyd as an overager.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Brownless should be draftable be interesting to see how Mensch goes as to whether he looks draftable. I wonder if we target both Dahlhaus and his cousin. Be interested to see how Cooper Stephens goes and Ethan Floyd as an overager.
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I think looking at recent year recruits - Gregson, Simpson, Parfitt, Fogarty, Miers, Narkle; we have brought in quite a few of the smaller types, and probably need to start drafting a few more of the mid-sized and key positions types. Mensch may not be what we really need.

However, we will need to focus on either trading or drafting some Key Forwards, Key Defenders and a Ruckman in the next season or two.

Not sure Gardner, House or Buzza will make it. SavRat might.

Smith, Abbott, Stanley, Blicavs are all +27 years old now.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Brownless should be draftable be interesting to see how Mensch goes as to whether he looks draftable. I wonder if we target both Dahlhaus and his cousin. Be interested to see how Cooper Stephens goes and Ethan Floyd as an overager.
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Thats about all I would be prepared to say atm. Draftable. Where is just guessing ..look at draft threads and much higher rated kids can fall and other zoom from no where. He was obvious good enough to be considered in the best 40 u17 kids..its a good indication he is worthy of selection. The same could be said of Scott. Looking at our multiple late picks to get both of these kids would be great ..if only to watch the hate filled glassy eyes and the spittle drip from frowned line faces. Wangle Walsh somehow and we would have little need for small FA's...
 
Turbocat said:
Thats about all I would be prepared to say atm. Draftable. Where is just guessing ..look at draft threads and much higher rated kids can fall and other zoom from no where. He was obvious good enough to be considered in the best 40 u17 kids..its a good indication he is worthy of selection. The same could be said of Scott. Looking at our multiple late picks to get both of these kids would be great ..if only to watch the hate filled glassy eyes and the spittle drip from frowned line faces. Wangle Walsh somehow and we would have little need for small FA's...
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Sam Walsh Falcons? I think he'll be a gun but not a good fit for us we already have a top 4 midfield plus constable and cockatoo and fogarty can play mid as can brownless and scott (if they come). Another mid is too many. Remember if brownless and scott nominate us and mensch comes on we may only have one live pick (rnd 1) as the rest will go on bids so that pick has to be for needs. I would have thought the best KPD we can get to replace HT or the best power forward to eventually replace Hawk are our key needs with our 1st rounder.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
Sam Walsh Falcons? I think he'll be a gun but not a good fit for us we already have a top 4 midfield plus constable and cockatoo and fogarty can play mid as can brownless and scott (if they come). Another mid is too many. Remember if brownless and scott nominate us and mensch comes on we may only have one live pick (rnd 1) as the rest will go on bids so that pick has to be for needs. I would have thought the best KPD we can get to replace HT or the best power forward to eventually replace Hawk are our key needs with our 1st rounder.
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Pure ... its more an observation that he is , as you say a gun ...and on talent first pick really should be the best talent one can pick. And I suspect that due to the plethora of talls ..a quality mid may slip.. sure id love a quality tall be we all know that Wells often goes against trend.
 
Turbocat said:
Pure ... its more an observation that he is , as you say a gun ...and on talent first pick really should be the best talent one can pick. And I suspect that due to the plethora of talls ..a quality mid may slip.. sure id love a quality tall be we all know that Wells often goes against trend.
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I get that but you have to pick for list balance otherwise you end up like Collingwood with a fantastic midfield and no forward line which doesn't work. I rate Walsh but our list needs balance especially as good key forwards are so hard to trade in. Live trading interests me it looks like a good talls draft if say we have pick 15 but one of the King's or a good tall is there at 9 do we try and trade up into that pick? It would be costly might cost 2019 picks also but for where we are in our window might be better than waiting the extra 12 months to draft a tall. I reckon if they had live trading in 2014 when we had 10 we would have tried to trade with GC to get Wright.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
I get that but you have to pick for list balance otherwise you end up like Collingwood with a fantastic midfield and no forward line which doesn't work. I rate Walsh but our list needs balance especially as good key forwards are so hard to trade in. Live trading interests me it looks like a good talls draft if say we have pick 15 but one of the King's or a good tall is there at 9 do we try and trade up into that pick? It would be costly might cost 2019 picks also but for where we are in our window might be better than waiting the extra 12 months to draft a tall. I reckon if they had live trading in 2014 when we had 10 we would have tried to trade with GC to get Wright.
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It seem we are seeing things in slightly different way but we not far away from each other. Normally if the best talent available at R1 was tall you may balance with R2..or visversa.. This year we know we have ( in theory) at least one FS mid/HB ..I can see the logic of going tall. But I suspect if we have the chance to get another quality mid , we will take it. What did our illustrious leader say ..get to the G to see the three champs play because know one know how long it will last.. they are in the back end of their career. Add to this very theoretical prognostication is how our talls go this year , what we like or do not like in our VFL etc and probably the most relevant ( considering the longer lead time of talls drafted) ..who we may be targeting to bring in as a tall. Imagine if we had 2mp in our sights etc. Not sure who the FA talent for 2019 and 2020 but obviously SW would know.

The live pick thing does change my theory. If suddenly you pay to get in earlier you are getting to the talls.. sure that may work but I guess if you could get a Darcy Fogerty tall it would be worth the cost.
 
Turbocat said:
It seem we are seeing things in slightly different way but we not far away from each other. Normally if the best talent available at R1 was tall you may balance with R2..or visversa.. This year we know we have ( in theory) at least one FS mid/HB ..I can see the logic of going tall. But I suspect if we have the chance to get another quality mid , we will take it. What did our illustrious leader say ..get to the G to see the three champs play because know one know how long it will last.. they are in the back end of their career. Add to this very theoretical prognostication is how our talls go this year , what we like or do not like in our VFL etc and probably the most relevant ( considering the longer lead time of talls drafted) ..who we may be targeting to bring in as a tall. Imagine if we had 2mp in our sights etc. Not sure who the FA talent for 2019 and 2020 but obviously SW would know.

The live pick thing does change my theory. If suddenly you pay to get in earlier you are getting to the talls.. sure that may work but I guess if you could get a Darcy Fogerty tall it would be worth the cost.
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Normally im best available over needs but that's when you have a slew of picks when you only have 1-2 decent live picks like we will this year i think you have to go needs. If we take another mid this year and no KPF we are basically committing to playing Danger permanent forward for the rest of his career or it makes no sense. Live trading is interesting (unless we trade our 1st rnd out before the draft for a player which we may do while we are in the window) like if you get to 8 and Wright is there or 11 and Fogarty is or 9 this year and King is do you trade 16 + next year's 1st or 2nd rnd for that player? I think you do. Depends which club you are dealing with too as GC and Adel had lots of talls so probably would have taken the deal whereas if a club like Freo has the pick they will be reluctant to give it up as they need talls.
 

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Oscar Brownless had 24 touches and a goal for the Falcons this week and Mensch named in the best. 38 touches for Sam Walsh (who will go before our pick IMO). King with a serious knee injury i wonder if that drops him down the order and if we would risk it for a KPF. This is where live pick trading will come in handy.
 
BIGANT said:
Oscar Brownless amongst the goalkickers {1} & Baxter Mensch amongst best players {5th} yest for the falcons.
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Pure_Ownage said:
Oscar Brownless had 24 touches and a goal for the Falcons this week and Mensch named in the best. 38 touches for Sam Walsh (who will go before our pick IMO). King with a serious knee injury i wonder if that drops him down the order and if we would risk it for a KPF. This is where live pick trading will come in handy.
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Mench would be Rookie at best ? Why could he have been his dads size. Brownless is shaping up us costing us one of those late pick imo.

Good question on Max King... but I dod believe that tac forwards will continue to slide a touch . Forwards his size start to slide the closer it gets to draft.

We have discussed Walsh before Pure. If he is there we have to take him...but I agree top5
 
Turbocat said:
Mench would be Rookie at best ? Why could he have been his dads size. Brownless is shaping up us costing us one of those late pick imo.

Good question on Max King... but I dod believe that tac forwards will continue to slide a touch . Forwards his size start to slide the closer it gets to draft.

We have discussed Walsh before Pure. If he is there we have to take him...but I agree top5
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I can't see the list fit with Walsh but i do think he will be Selwood like you'd probably have to take him but he will go before us. Ask me after seeing Sav House and Buzza play for the rest of the year then I will decide if we need KPF. I think we would be hoping to delist Hayball and get Mensch as a FS rookie like we did Simpson but it depends if he gets an earlier bid like Silvagni did.

I think if Oscar only costs one of our 2 3rd rounders we will be very happy i worry he might get bid earlier.

Knee injuries are hard on KPFs but then again Lukosious probably goes #1 and King is the 2nd best KPF currently so maybe he still goes high. Adelaide will have probably 3 R1s if Sloane goes so if they go local it might push him down the order. I wonder if he's still there at say 8-12 (my guess is we pick at 14-20 again) if we try and do an aggressive live pick trade to get up the order and pick him up, would be a big call.
 
Pure_Ownage said:
I can't see the list fit with Walsh but i do think he will be Selwood like you'd probably have to take him but he will go before us. Ask me after seeing Sav House and Buzza play for the rest of the year then I will decide if we need KPF. I think we would be hoping to delist Hayball and get Mensch as a FS rookie like we did Simpson but it depends if he gets an earlier bid like Silvagni did.

I think if Oscar only costs one of our 2 3rd rounders we will be very happy i worry he might get bid earlier.

Knee injuries are hard on KPFs but then again Lukosious probably goes #1 and King is the 2nd best KPF currently so maybe he still goes high. Adelaide will have probably 3 R1s if Sloane goes so if they go local it might push him down the order. I wonder if he's still there at say 8-12 (my guess is we pick at 14-20 again) if we try and do an aggressive live pick trade to get up the order and pick him up, would be a big call.
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Walsh is so good that he pushes other out so if he there we take him... but unless we do one of your deals I agree he will be taken... (although the trading of just drafted players will be something to watch if it comes in)...

On King ..CalT thinks he is still top5 , Pelican say somewhere in top10.. so id say he may get to a spot where the talent demands selection by someone.
Big calls are Swells all over so it would not surprise if he tests the new trade stuff out. If we manage to move into single figures we have a chance. True on Crows and three really talented sa kids this year.. but then a again they do go anti local sometimes. Its more likely we take a look at the less known or less loved. Its like Wells sees the cost exceeds their talent on kids that on the buzz. Who..well lets just wait till the champs.. I have already mentioned Munn to at least worth a watch. OReilys FSon as well.

A player that may be there for us with big upside is Williams ..and we need to think about add talent to our rucks.


My guess is Mench will be like Simpson at worst (if we want him) OB 40+ unless he does something super at the champs.
 
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Pure_Ownage said:
I can't see the list fit with Walsh but i do think he will be Selwood like you'd probably have to take him but he will go before us. ...
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You got me thinking about comparing Selwood and Walsh. From what I have seen not the same type of player yet reports have him as a leadership type , natural leader as well as a high level player. When we drafted Selwood , we were not exactly devoid of mids but he was too good to go past ... interesting comparison. Its probably irrelevant as its unlikely we will have t he choice we had with Joel. Walsh is not coming of an injury that has seen him slip , and we will most unlikely to have a single figure pick to get him. Its more likely we get a tall that slips .. if we pick up a couple of fs mids.
 
Pure_Ownage ...this is the kid I have mentioned a couple of times .. Very athletic type .. if he is playing forward now may start to gather some earlier interest.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-sam-walsh-stars-max-king-does-acl

Spring-heeled ruckman Bailey Williams played a big part up forward in Dandenong's convincing win against Western. The 198cm, 95kg ruckman who will spend most of the season up forward for Dandenong due to their deep ruck division, amassed 17 disposals, 12 contested possessions, eight marks (four contested), seven goals and three score assists.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-sam-walsh-stars-max-king-does-acl
 
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Turbocat said:
Pure_Ownage ...this is the kid I have mentioned a couple of times .. Very athletic type .. if he is playing forward now may start to gather some earlier interest.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-sam-walsh-stars-max-king-does-acl

Spring-heeled ruckman Bailey Williams played a big part up forward in Dandenong's convincing win against Western. The 198cm, 95kg ruckman who will spend most of the season up forward for Dandenong due to their deep ruck division, amassed 17 disposals, 12 contested possessions, eight marks (four contested), seven goals and three score assists.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-sam-walsh-stars-max-king-does-acl
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Need to keep an eye on that Williams. Sounds like a handy type, might be around for our first pick.

Same with that Hudson Garoni, sounds like he monstered them up forward in that article.

Interesting about Mensch's game, sounds like he has elevated his game this season. Might be a good late pick or is under-rated, hopefully he grows a few more cm's. Seems like he has a good record in School footy. Going back a few years.

5005346_orig.jpg
 
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Turbocat said:
A few names that we have discussed .. mentioned by Knightmare this week .. Mensch , Brownless , Scott , Butts .....

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ood-academy-prospect-atu-bosenavualagi-shines
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seems like there is potential there beyond them just being FS for us - which is good in that the talent seems real - bad in that the price will go up.

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dazbroncos said:
seems like there is potential there beyond them just being FS for us - which is good in that the talent seems real - bad in that the price will go up.

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I doubt that the price will be affected that much.. FS and academy players are always good value and mostly slip. Naish last year for example. Be nice if we could get a kid like Blakey but they will have to be paying an early price.
Brownless to me will be 40+ and Mensch... late or Rookie at the earliest ..I guess one could compare him to Simpson see how his form compares and gauge estimated cost. I hope if Mench is draftable that we do the right thing an offer him a chance if a spot is there. We have benefited by the FS rule and along with is the duty to give FS every chance. I think on a whole we have been good citizens ... not many we have NOT given a chance.. Couch?
 
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