2018 prospects/Predictions for AFC?

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One prediction I'll make is that we won't see as much of Otten next year unless it's to replace a genuine tall player. I reckon after the GF the coaches will have gotten a greater appreciation for the importance of controlling the game at ground level in finals and we'll see small changes to our selections throughout the season in line with improving our defensive pressure overall. Otten's game revolves almost entirely around the ball being in the air (marks, spoils, etc.), but that requires us to play the game on our terms. Which isn't going to happen in finals if we can't contest the ball on the ground, and that is Otten's major weakness unfortunately.
 
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Rabman said:
Confident will be back up there in 2018. First 5 rounds will be interesting, Essendon (A) Richmond (H) St.Kilda (A) Collingwood (H) Sydney (A) will be a challenging start to the season and we need to be at least 3-2 preferably 4-1 to be able to mount a strong challenge. Home should be our fortress again, minimum 9 wins needed to be up there and 6-7 away wins with a few good scalps along the way. I believe both sydney teams along Essendon and Richmond to be the main contenders along with us next season. Geelong ageing list will start to catch up with them, port signed a bunch of rejects nothing special about them, bulldogs and st.kilda should make the leap in the 8.
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And I expect us to be sluggish out of the gates unlike last year. I think we lose to Essendon but then spank Richmond. After that who knows. Should beat the Saints but we could easily have a letdown after exorcising our GF demons on Richmond. Should beat Collingwood back at home but beating Sydney away has proven to be very difficult for us. I think 3-2 is the best we can hope for at that stage. Very early in the season at that point though and time to recover, just look at the Swans last year.

I have little doubt there will be a drop off, the question is how quickly will we shake off the menatl demons. Will it last all season or long enough to derail our season? I think we'll know early on.
 
Roovolution said:
And I expect us to be sluggish out of the gates unlike last year. I think we lose to Essendon but then spank Richmond. After that who knows. Should beat the Saints but we could easily have a letdown after exorcising our GF demons on Richmond. Should beat Collingwood back at home but beating Sydney away has proven to be very difficult for us. I think 3-2 is the best we can hope for at that stage. Very early in the season at that point though and time to recover, just look at the Swans last year.

I have little doubt there will be a drop off, the question is how quickly will we shake off the menatl demons. Will it last all season or long enough to derail our season? I think we'll know early on.
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How we start next season will lay the foundations to how we perform throughout.
 
On paper we definitely have the team to make another solid run at the flag.

Lever is a good player and not to admit so is disingenuous as he will make Melbourne better but I'm positive we can we can cover him by seasons end.
It will take time and a bit of experimentation structure wise but there is enough good players in the SANFL team to play his role well.

Cameron is different...' inconsistent, unreliable, fades in and out.' He was all those things but that pace!
He was a handful at times as demonstrated in the preliminary final. Cameron has an X factor and those types turn games. (That's why the loss of McGovern in the GF was so disappointing.)
Cameron in my mind is the big loss, but now the forward line takes on a different look. Who that is....it's up for grabs but we have plenty of candidates.

Structure wise I am a Jenkins fan; a 60 goal forward is hard to come by and I just don't care if he gets cheap ones over the back as long as someone is kicking them. It just demonstrates we have a functioning forward line that is hard to stop and unlike others comparable players who are regularly mentioned he actually plays for us.
He's quick, versatile and fits the team balance, however as a lot of posters have pointed out and we do need to face facts...toughen the **** up. With a body that size, Jenkins needs to change parts of his game in 2018.
He's one piece of the puzzle but we are better with Jenkins in the team than without...oh and also get off bloody twitter and think before you speak.

If we are to go the next step our whole team needs to be harder, run straighter and get a touch of mongrel. Seedsman, Atkins and Milera get special mentions for this department.
We move the ball better than anyone in the comp but how about learning to consistently hard shepherd and sticking a strong tackle that hurts.

Smith is a big loss as he was having a stellar year when injured and he was an offensive weapon in the back line.
Keath given some encouragement to take the game on and backing to make mistakes might be a ready replacement. He certainly has height, is a good mark and some speed.
McPherson plays similar to Smith but our track record with 1st year players starting immediately means he's an unlikely candidate.
There's a few others that may be tried.
Using Gibbs in defence is a waste of trading for him. Midfield,midfield,midfield or we've pay an exorbitant price for an oldish half back flanker.

The Crouch boys will only improve as will Greenwood. I expect Sloane to play forward, wing and on the ball, anyway to disrupt a tag.
Gibbs has to improve the midfield mix while Gibson will be a jack of all trades in there.
I'm hoping Poholke gets time in the league team this year.
Jacobs will again be used too much during the year without blooding a backup but that's their philosophy.

I just want to see a little more adventurous attitude demonstrated by the coaching staff this year.
Change up a few things, reward SANFL form, blood a few more players and try different tactics and players in positions on various occasions.

Our game plan wasn't good enough to win the grand final last year so we need to alter something about our game style or coaching approach.
Other teams will improve and though we lack a true quality difference maker we do have a really good squad.
I'm sure will still be in the hunt, top four should be the goal at the end of the minor round, then who knows.
 
I think we will win enough games to make the Top 4. Then the real stuff starts.

One silver lining from the 2017 GF (if there is one) is that we now know that random good wins in June, that used to mean a lot and cause a lot of excitement, mean little in the scheme of things. As does a poor loss here or there.

Every game counts of course, but I won't be satisfied unless we get to the Grand Final again and win it. I also won't be necking myself if we play a few bad games.

We can do it.
 
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pjcrows said:
I think we will win enough games to make the Top 4. Then the real stuff starts.

One silver lining from the 2017 GF (if there is one) is that we now know that random good wins in June, that used to mean a lot and cause a lot of excitement, mean little in the scheme of things. As does a poor loss here or there.

Every game counts of course, but I won't be satisfied unless we get to the Grand Final again and win it. I also won't be necking myself if we play a few bad games.

We can do it.
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Just hope we blood a few different players throughout the season so we have some options / flexibility come the pointy end
 
Our midfield is starting to look like the Eagles mid 2000's
Sloan, MCrouch, BCrouch, Gibbs, Greenwood - Douglas & Gibson to rotate through

Our forward line still looks Ok

Without major injuries ....Crows top 2....should win the home finals ...then back to the G to try again.

The biggest worry is down back....already 2 all Australian backmen down - Lever & Smith. ....so if Laird or Talia get injured...wow.
 

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what else does one do on >40 degree day with nothing else to do but stay cool? write their season review/forecast.

In summary, I believe there is plenty of evidence to suggest we should go very well again this season. I wont go on about it too much except in this sentence but I believe the largest factor in our failure in the grandfinal last year was defensive gameplan, I've heard nothing from the crows about correcting this, so it remains a worry, but only really for a few games a year, most sides can't exploit it, especially in the minor round.

We did learn a few other things though, our recruitment of Gibbs and especially Gibson (and the retention of CEY on rookie list), suggests we were painfully aware of a lack of depth in the middle again at the business end of the season. Atkins and Greenwood were the last left on the shelf, despite being down on form and condition. Seedsman wasn't exactly at his peak either. We learned well the prev year about ensuring Jacobs was in good condition, and other players, Jenkins, Talia, Tex etc coming into finals and rested them when we could. So hopefully our actions this year pan out well for us at the end of this season and we done our due diligence to correct that weakness.

There's been a lot of people in here falling for hype about lots of other teams, Port and their super recruitment, Geelong with Ablett back, blah, blah, blah and as usual our own fall for it. Here's some stats, about what was done ON THE FOOTY FIELD, in the last two years, lets see what they tell us about ourselves versus others.

Here's our win / loss vs other teams over the last two years (minor round):
V Team, W for them, W for us
Kang, 2,1
Pt Ad, 0,3
Rich, 0,2
Syd, 1,1
Haw, 2,1
Fre,0,3
WB, 1,1
Geel, 3,1
GC, 0,2
GWS, 0,2
STK, 0,2
WC, 2,1
Melb,1,2
Carl, 0,2
Coll, 0,1,1draw
Ess, 0,3
Bris, 0,2

If you go back another year, most teams still don't pick up any wins against us. So Bris, Ess, Coll, Carl, Stk, GWS, GC, Freo, Pt Ad haven't had a win against for at least two years, possibly a couple more. The teams that have a win loss balance in their favour are Kang, Haw, Geelong and WC. Now I dunno about you but I'm not convinced that three of those are going to be a force this year, only Geelong likely to make the 8 out of them, possibly WC. Some teams have been on the end of some substantial hidings from us at times too. We go into a lot of games with an advantage in the minds, before a ball is even bounced.

One issue I've spoken about previously is our inexperience in games played and then what that brings in a lack of seasoned hardness and what that means at the end of the season (ie a drop off). We're starting to get a good profile of experience now and I like that Rat and Knight look to be bustin some arse and doing even better at the preseason than their already pretty good standards. Gibson is another handy acquisition in that respect.

We are as un-impacted by the decline or departure of old players as any top 8 team from what I can see. GWS stand out with the departure of Mumford, as good as GWS is in a lot of places on the field, a good ruckman they don't currently have.

I can remember in my corresponding posts last year claiming our midfield, not so much center bounce but around the square, was as good as anyone's and our center bounce guys weren't bottom six like some were clamining. There was a lot of resistance to that last year. I think there wont be so much this year. Our around the square unit are as good as what's going around, ie in the top four, as I believe our center bounce unit is also. I wouldn't rank either unit as top, but defs not to far behind the top ones.

Our injury management seems to be going ok again. We stepped up our cautious-ness a level last season with a lot of players (gov, talia for example) pulling out just on suspicions of not being right. Last year was still a pretty low injury pre-season, only Doedee, Cheney and Seedsman wasn't it, with a regulation cameo cautionary rest period for Crouch wasn't it? We had Davis unable to start the year due to pre-existing injury that needed to be managed This pre-season also seems pretty good with no one really parked up - well - technically smith is - but he's still out running now, and I think only Tex, Jenkins and Greenwood had surgery, so the worst thing we have are a few people on modified programs. The two preseason of pretty low injury room counts bodes well as continuity really helps performance.

I am pretty sure we've got the best two category B pick-ups ever. They should be able to start to really shine this year. Also fringe guys, Mackay especially really had to pick it up a notch last year to stay in the side, and credit to him for doing that, but this year if any guys like him slip up they're going to face serious heat for selection, Milera was out of the side at the end of last year, Doedee has been in the system for a while and played some good footy, Hampton did well when he was in the team, CEY lurks on the rookie list and hasn't been too bad at times in the past (especially under Walsh) plus all of the draftees had a couple of games here and there at really high levels in the SANFL, they just needed to get more consistent and I expect that to come this year.

As some have said we have some real painful to match up on forwards. This should continue, I would have said improve, but CC's departure will cancel out Gov's improvement.

There are some negatives, but I consider them minor-ish (aside from the gameplan one). Smith out is a pain, but everyone gets injuries, so every team will be in a similar boat. I consider Cameron a loss, moreso than Lever as I think Lever is easier to cover and Keath or Cheney are decent coverage there for a start and I wouldn't be surprised if Doedee does alright and if the forward line is slow, there's always Otten. I assume we are confident about replacing Cameron as we had the chance to retain Menzel but didnt. We haven't heard much about a number of people in the preseason...anyone heard anything said about Reilly O'Brien?? Shouldn't he nearly be starting to take over from Sauce?? Anything about Dear?

A bit of a digression, but I just wanted to say, of my season forecast, lets hope Richmond have a good year, and do not do a western bulldogs, otherwise it will look mighty suspicious that someone (Gil - cough -cough) dreamt up a system of getting the victorian fairy tale to happen and manipulated things to achieve that. Lets hope western bulldogs have a vastly improved season to also show they actually had something there two years ago.

I cant complete this without discussing DABM's regulation - what if they're mentally scarred theory. Well you said that after the Hawthorn final, and we came back and just missed top for with a win loss ratio that really should have got us top 4, then after the Sydney final, we came back the year after that and finished top, even after losing a game while resting players, so based on this trend, last years mental scarring should have us go lossless in the minor round and win the grandy in a canter. Put that in your 40 degree day and smoke it! :D Go Crows.
 
I'm less worried about Cameron than I am about Lever. If someone like Gooch can come in and still provide some quality defensive work, but actually have the ability to be consistent with his disposal, then we will be a better side.
 
I think we will be around the mark again.

Our midfield will be much stronger than this year given the improvement to come from the Crouch brothers, Greenwood and even Sloane from a consistency point of view. The addition of Gibbs will aid all of this, and Gibson to a lesser but still important extent.

A fully fit McGovern is key to us being the same force up front but I expect a slight decline from Eddie. That 2nd smaller forward position is a slight worry but Charlie was inconsistent all year. Gooch has a huge opportunity to stamp his name down, and although we won't see much of Fogarty I do believe what we will see will be exciting. Lachie Murphy the wildcard here, I can see him playing a role all round the ground.

Key defence looks solid, as does the Brown/Laird combo. Doedee and Keath aren't Jake Lever so that's a loss, but they don't have to be as good, they just have to do their job well enough. The former gives the intercept ability and the latter is the athletic attacker, which will we use come r1 ?? Probably Doedee for smaller lineups and Keath for the bigger sides.

Smith is the key loss, is it Seedsman, Milera, or maybe even our 2 trade captures ?? Seedsman is most like for like but it'll be interesting to see.

Our biggest challenge will be learning to change and adapt to opponents and what we do on selection night. Much like modern day cricket, footy is becoming more of a flexibility game. Selection consistency is a good thing, it served us well last year for the most part, but our structure cannot dictate in all circumstances.

All in all I think we are primed to go again. Its top 4 or bust.
 
Donkey Magoo said:
Premiers. We got a little stage fright, we've been on an upward trajectory for a few years, Gibbs is a massive in, bigger than Lever/CC loss IMHO. Smithres cover will be the toughest replacement.
We will be very hungry.
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MRB37 said:
Not sure. Could have easily been something where Pyke said he didn't want any distractions at for the first month of the year, so that's when they decided to give them holidays?
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Has anyone heard Pyke give any interviews since the GF ? ....apart from the 1 minute grab on draft night

There's been no season debrief, or summary of what fans can expect for 2018 ......season countdown has started
 
Donkey Magoo said:
Oh, I do. It still makes me sad. Tiger and Port flogs have been attacking me for months.
But I see it as a missed opportunity rather than some big flaw with the team. Sometimes it just isn't your day.
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You ought to try living in MELB ......the shops in Swann street are still draped in black & Gold :(

It was the biggest missed opportunity, since that day against ESSEN
 
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