Prediction 2018 Rising Star

[citizen-erased]

You can bet on Corey Wagner though

He's paying the same odds as Ben Mckay.... bit insulting to Ben.

I think Riewoldt is the only forward to ever win a rising star.
I think McKay falls into the waste of money basket here. Forwards take too long to peak.

 

[Jesslc]

I think Riewoldt is the only forward to ever win a rising star.
I think McKay falls into the waste of money basket here. Forwards take too long to peak.

Yeah my point flew right over your head.....

Corey Wagner was delisted last year yet he's paying the same odds to win the AFL rising star as one of his teammates who is actually listed.....

 

[citizen-erased]

Yeah my point flew right over your head.....

Corey Wagner was delisted last year yet he's paying the same odds to win the AFL rising star as one of his teammates who is actually listed.....

just playing devils advocate for the bookies.
Wagner as much a chance of winning it as McKay.
Just isn't a forwards award.
But yeah, a little insulting to the kid- ill pay that.

Like defenders and brownlows.

 

[Joao]

I think Riewoldt is the only forward to ever win a rising star.
I think McKay falls into the waste of money basket here. Forwards take too long to peak.

Jesse Hogan?

 

[Snake_Baker]

just playing devils advocate for the bookies.
Wagner as much a chance of winning it as McKay.
Just isn't a forwards award.
But yeah, a little insulting to the kid- ill pay that.

Like defenders and brownlows.

"Liked" for admitting it's a limited rubbish award.

 

[citizen-erased]

Jesse Hogan?

that wasn't that long ago either.

 

[Jesslc]

just playing devils advocate for the bookies.
Wagner as much a chance of winning it as McKay.
Just isn't a forwards award.
But yeah, a little insulting to the kid- ill pay that.

Like defenders and brownlows.

Jesse Hogan won 3 years ago...

Do you follow football?

Ryan Burton came 2nd and Charlie Curnow came 4th last year. Both Key Position players...

Curnow will pay midfield later on his careeer and Burton may too but last year they were playing Key position...

 

[citizen-erased]

"Liked" for admitting it's a limited rubbish award.

I dont think they're rubbish awards.
Brownlow has failed to recognise some forwards of late. Buddy should have won one. Lloyd in 2000 as well. And there is nothing preventing that from happening. They just don't get votes compared to midfielders.
I think the nature of the Rising Star lends itself to being a midfielder/running defender award.
Tall forwards rarely hit their straps before 21. And they generally take more than 10 games to do so. So most are ruled ineligible by the rules before they get a chance to get going.

Hogan had the benefit of being picked up as a 17yo and training for a year with the Melbourne VFL.
Riewoldt a #1 draft pick who was already a freak talent in his second year. Kicked less goals than Daniher in their respective second years but was getting a lot of disposals and taking a lot of marks.

These guys bucked the trend.

 

[Jesslc]

"Liked" for admitting it's a limited rubbish award.

I still don't think he understood the significance of Corey Wagner being delisted and staying in the market....

 

[Jesslc]

I dont think they're rubbish awards.
Brownlow has failed to recognise some forwards of late. Buddy should have won one. Lloyd in 2000 as well. And there is nothing preventing that from happening. They just don't get votes compared to midfielders.
I think the nature of the Rising Star lends itself to being a midfielder/running defender award.
Tall forwards rarely hit their straps before 21. And they generally take more than 10 games to do so. So most are ruled ineligible by the rules before they get a chance to get going.

Hogan had the benefit of being picked up as a 17yo and training for a year with the Melbourne VFL.
Riewoldt a #1 draft pick who was already a freak talent in his second year. Kicked less goals than Daniher in their respective second years but was getting a lot of disposals and taking a lot of marks.

These guys bucked the trend.

1. Most 17 yr olds train/and play with VFL clubs.

2. Jesse Hogan kicked 41 in his second year playing AFL footy.

Daniher kicked 28....

Try again.

 

[citizen-erased]

1. Most 17 yr olds train/and play with VFL clubs.

2. Jesse Hogan kicked 41 in his second year playing AFL footy.

Daniher kicked 28....

Try again.

Not too many 17yo's are on AFL lists a year earlier than their peers are drafted. Of the 4 that have been, 2 won Rising Stars and another was a runner up to one of them. So there is that to say of their calibre.

Also, of the 25 rising star winners, only 7 key position players have won it. 4 of them were defenders. 3 were forwards.
Go another step - in the 21 years i can find the votes for, 7 forwards have made top 3. 7/63 spots.
Hence my point of the rising star not being much of a forwards award

 

[Wild Bill]

just playing devils advocate for the bookies.
Wagner as much a chance of winning it as McKay.
Just isn't a forwards award.
But yeah, a little insulting to the kid- ill pay that.

Like defenders and brownlows.

I have the same chance of winning the Rising star as Wagner.

 

[citizen-erased]

I have the same chance of winning the Rising star as Wagner.

and McKay.

 

[Wild Bill]

I think Riewoldt is the only forward to ever win a rising star.
I think McKay falls into the waste of money basket here. Forwards take too long to peak.

Nick Holland
Justin Koschitzke
Nick Riewoldt
Jesse Hogan

 

[Wild Bill]

and McKay.

One is a fact - the other your opinion.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Pretty sure Kosi and Roo played mostly at CHB in the years they won the RS. Kosi for sure (just 2 goals from 20 games) and Nick might have also played wing a fair bit that year from memory. He had the most rebound-50's of any year in his career that year (the only other year he came close when 2016 when he played mostly wing) and more in that year than in 8 of his other years combined.

 

[citizen-erased]

Pretty sure Kosi and Roo played mostly at CHB in the years they won the RS. Kosi for sure and Nick might have also played wing a fair bit that year from memory.

i struggled to remember Hogan winning 3 years ago.
Couldn't recall Kosi and Roo's early years, so i've counted them as forwards against my argument rather than for it.

One is a fact - the other your opinion.

just a bit of jest with McKay's odds being the same as a delisted player. slightly insulting to the kid, but probably not wrong either.

Nick Holland
Justin Koschitzke
Nick Riewoldt
Jesse Hogan

mentioned above i forgot about Hogan
Quoting a Saints fan above, Kosi and Roo may not have played forward much during those early years.
Holland played his early career, and won the Rising Star, at CHB.

At best, 3/25 winners were forwards when they won it.
Possibly only 1, but ill pay Kosi and Roo.

Hogan was a man child who could have played the year before his debut if not for the rules.
I wasn't surprised when he won it.

My point is forwards struggle to win it because they are rarely ready to go before they are ineligible for it.
More may win it if the age restriction was removed (maybe u21 at the point of drafting) and it was based on senior AFL games played.

 

[Snake_Baker]

My point is forwards struggle to win it because they are rarely ready to go before they are ineligible for it.
More may win it if the age restriction was removed (maybe u21 at the point of drafting) and it was based on senior AFL games played.

Would you support the Rising Star being awarded on a games basis for under 24 year olds?

< 30 games and < 24?

it would have a lot more credibility then.

 

[aussierulesrules]

i struggled to remember Hogan winning 3 years ago.
Couldn't recall Kosi and Roo's early years, so i've counted them as forwards against my argument rather than for it.

just a bit of jest with McKay's odds being the same as a delisted player. slightly insulting to the kid, but probably not wrong either.

mentioned above i forgot about Hogan
Quoting a Saints fan above, Kosi and Roo may not have played forward much during those early years.
Holland played his early career, and won the Rising Star, at CHB.

At best, 3/25 winners were forwards when they won it.
Possibly only 1, but ill pay Kosi and Roo.

Hogan was a man child who could have played the year before his debut if not for the rules.
I wasn't surprised when he won it.

My point is forwards struggle to win it because they are rarely ready to go before they are ineligible for it.
More may win it if the age restriction was removed (maybe u21 at the point of drafting) and it was based on senior AFL games played.

I've now edited a bit more into that previous post. Kosi definitely played down back (only 2 marks inside 50 for the year and just 2 goals) and I'd say Nick played a bit of all over the place. He had 9 games that year where he took a total of 71 marks in those games, yet none were inside the F50, so was probably playing down back for most of that time, but he did take 28 marks inside F50 in the remaining games, and kicked 21 goals for the year, so some of that would have been playing wing, and some playing forward.

He played that whole year at just 19yo and took 178 marks, (54 contested), winning our B&F and getting 11 Brownlow votes! Freakish.

 

[Jesslc]

Not too many 17yo's are on AFL lists a year earlier than their peers are drafted. Of the 4 that have been, 2 won Rising Stars and another was a runner up to one of them. So there is that to say of their calibre.

Also, of the 25 rising star winners, only 7 key position players have won it. 4 of them were defenders. 3 were forwards.
Go another step - in the 21 years i can find the votes for, 7 forwards have made top 3. 7/63 spots.
Hence my point of the rising star not being much of a forwards award

Did you just completely ignore the lie you made up about Daniher kicking more goals than Hogan in their second years? Do you not look up stats before claiming them?

Pretty much all your facts so far have been false.

The reason they are on AFL lists a year prior is because they were the best players from their pool (picked based on that fact).

So... it's not suprising that 2 of them won rising star awards (best in their pool). That doesn't contribute to your original argument thatkey position players dont win rising star awards. You are just stating random facts (most of which arent true) and then completely ignoring the ones you are called out on.

I bet if I fact checked those remaining stats, they'd likely be proven to be false aswell.

 

[Jesslc]

One is a fact - the other your opinion.

This guy literally doesn't follow football. Hes stating random facts based on stats that arent accurate and then doesnt respond to being called out on them.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Pretty much all your facts so far have been false.

The reason they are on AFL lists a year prior is because they were the best players from their pool (picked based on that fact).

They also had to be born in the first 3 or whatever months of that year though, so far from everyone born in the same year as them were eligible to go in those mini-drafts. Only those born in the early months- which counted out the likes of Boyd, Bont, Billings etc.

 

[Jesslc]

They also had to be born in the first 3 or whatever months of that year though, so far from everyone born in the same year as them were eligible to go in those mini-drafts. Only those born in the early months.

That point means literally nothing to this conversation. We are talking about the rising star award (and who qualifies for that).... not who qualifies for mini drafts.

If your point is that they arent necessarily the best in that draft, then 50% of them won rising stars so that point doesnt hold much weight.

 

[aussierulesrules]

That point means literally nothing to this conversation. We are talking about the rising star award (and who qualifies for that).... not who qualifies for mini drafts.

It was in response to your own statement that "The reason they are on AFL lists a year prior is because they were the best players from their pool (picked based on that fact)."

Or are you the only one that's allowed to clarify things in this thread?

 

[Wild Bill]

just a bit of jest with McKay's odds being the same as a delisted player. slightly insulting to the kid, but probably not wrong either.

Right so our McKay is your Francis.