2018 Trade and FA thread (opposition supporters post in Trade Hypotheticals thread)

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jason pm

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We’ve heard from some reliable posters on the Saints board that a number of players aren’t all that happy at the moment. These were a few of the mid-tier players who you don’t want to lose but could live with a trade if you had to. But then just recently someone has not only thrown Seb’s name into the mix, but gone one step further and suggested he actively approached an opposition club (presumably Brisbane given the other rumours).

It doesn’t really make sense since he just signed a big contract and could be winning his second B+F but, having said that, the playing group is quite tight-knit and are collectively oppositional towards the club in some aspects (for example, they banded together to force an adjustment to the game plan). So perhaps some of Seb’s friends are getting pushed/shopped around, so combine that with a poor season and a coach that isn’t steering the ship in the right direction.....
What would you think he'd be worth on the trade table? Would Dayne Beams be of interest as part of any trade to give you the experience and class you need?
 

Strahany

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What would you think he'd be worth on the trade table? Would Dayne Beams be of interest as part of any trade to give you the experience and class you need?
I think the club would fight tooth and nail to keep him given his contracted status, but if we assume that he would be traded, then a top 10ish pick would be fairly irresponsible to turn down. Richardson might advocate for Beams but I can’t see that getting ticked off by higher ups, so it would need a third party to get involved in some manner (pick or player) IMO
 

Clarkythelion

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Would we be better off trying to offload Beams now? (Serious question) I feel if we can get a nice deal for him while he has currency then all avenues should be looked at (which I'm confident the club will). If his ideal location is in vic then I'm sure we can help that.
Id be reluctant to do it now. since Voss and Black went we have really had good midfield role models for the kids to learn from. Not sure Rockliff and to some extent Zorko are role models. This year we have seen good progression and we need another lift next year for the kids to be running the team so I'd hang onto Beams with him and Hodge we have good leaders. I actually wouldn't mid Roughead on a similar deal to hodge as an infield forward coach.
 

Cockliff38

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All things aside, the fact that McGovern and Ross (if true) are looking to move one year after signing long-term extensions is an absolute joke. If this off-season doesn't force the AFL's hand in regards to the legitimacy of player contracts then nothing will.
 

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Would we be better off trying to offload Beams now? (Serious question) I feel if we can get a nice deal for him while he has currency then all avenues should be looked at (which I'm confident the club will). If his ideal location is in vic then I'm sure we can help that.
#9 from Essendon sounds about right
Would not be overly against it. Especially if it fills a need for us and helps Dayne.
Honestly feel that is an over pay for Beams. If the teams were reversed, and Brisbane was trading pick 9 for a 29 year old and beat up Dayne Beams, I'd be pretty pissed.

I'm all for getting the best value for Beams in a trade if it eventuates, but genuinely try to be realistic when considering such trades. I believe Beams would be worth a late first or early, early second. While a players past and current achievements does lend weight to his value, what really counts is a players projected future out put, and I believe Beams, at best (and I really want to stress that "at best") has two years left in his body performing a high level.

Others have mentioned it, when the decline comes for Beams, it's going to be fast. I don't see Beams as being able to play on like Hodge or Burgoyne.
 
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Would we be better off trying to offload Beams now? (Serious question) I feel if we can get a nice deal for him while he has currency then all avenues should be looked at (which I'm confident the club will). If his ideal location is in vic then I'm sure we can help that.
If we get an offer then I think we will talk to him. I don't think it would matter where he goes as long as it is in Melbourne

#9 from Essendon sounds about right
I would be ok with this but I get a feeling Essendon would want maybe our third round pick as well, maybe even our second. Essendon does seem like the destination for him though. Maybe Beams and our second for their first 2. Our second pick then is moved up about 10/12 places (after PP and FA) and we keep a second round pick (all be it about 5 spots back)
 
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Honestly feel that is an over pay for Beams. If the teams were reversed, and Brisbane was trading pick 9 for a 29 year old and beat up Dayne Beams, I'd be pretty pissed.

I'm all for getting the best value for Beams in a trade if it eventuates, but genuinely try to be realistic when considering such trades. I believe Beams would be worth a late first or early, early second. While a players past and current achievements does lend weight to his value, what really counts is a players projected future out put, and I believe Beams, at best (and I really want to stress that "at best") has two years left in his body performing a high level.

Others have mentioned it, when the decline comes for Beams, it's going to be fast. I don't see Beams as being able to play on like Hodge or Burgoyne.

I think he only has 2 years left playing how he does with us. He may have longer if he doesn't need to constantly be the one diving in over the ball. Could get an extra year or 2 as more of a forward as well, not putting in the big minutes in the middle. Sadly we don't have that luxury right now, but another team might.
 

briztoon

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If we get an offer then I think we will talk to him. I don't think it would matter where he goes as long as it is in Melbourne



I would be ok with this but I get a feeling Essendon would want maybe our third round pick as well, maybe even our second. Essendon does seem like the destination for him though. Maybe Beams and our second for their first 2. Our second pick then is moved up about 10/12 places (after PP and FA) and we keep a second round pick (all be it about 5 spots back)
Yeah if Essendon's pick 9 was part of the trade, I can definitely see Essendon requiring a swap of second round picks to get the deal done.
 

Brett C

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All things aside, the fact that McGovern and Ross (if true) are looking to move one year after signing long-term extensions is an absolute joke. If this off-season doesn't force the AFL's hand in regards to the legitimacy of player contracts then nothing will.
It doesn't make contracts less legitimate. Clubs would also have the same discussions with players and suggest that maybe they'd get more opportunity at other clubs.

Clubs can say no to a trade but we have to accept that things change, we force players in a lot of cases to move away from family and friends at 17/18 and expect them to be full time professional athletes with a level of scrutiny that very few other people have.

I'm curious what your suggestion for a fix would be?
 

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Milux

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Honestly feel that is an over pay for Beams. If the teams were reversed, and Brisbane was trading pick 9 for a 29 year old and beat up Dayne Beams, I'd be pretty pissed.

I'm all for getting the best value for Beams in a trade if it eventuates, but genuinely try to be realistic when considering such trades. I believe Beams would be worth a late first or early, early second. While a players past and current achievements does lend weight to his value, what really counts is a players projected future out put, and I believe Beams, at best (and I really want to stress that "at best") has two years left in his body performing a high level.

Others have mentioned it, when the decline comes for Beams, it's going to be fast. I don't see Beams as being able to play on like Hodge or Burgoyne.
Teams like essendon are on the cusp and probs would be more then happy to over pay for specific needs.
 
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Honestly feel that is an over pay for Beams. If the teams were reversed, and Brisbane was trading pick 9 for a 29 year old and beat up Dayne Beams, I'd be pretty pissed.

I'm all for getting the best value for Beams in a trade if it eventuates, but genuinely try to be realistic when considering such trades. I believe Beams would be worth a late first or early, early second. While a players past and current achievements does lend weight to his value, what really counts is a players projected future out put, and I believe Beams, at best (and I really want to stress that "at best") has two years left in his body performing a high level.

Others have mentioned it, when the decline comes for Beams, it's going to be fast. I don't see Beams as being able to play on like Hodge or Burgoyne.
Adelaide-Carlton for Gibbs is a good precedent for the trade though. Similar age and expectations. Pick 10, plus pick 16 in exchange for Carlton's 2018-R2 (~pick 19 in a stronger draft, so really pretty close to just pick 10).

If the Lions tried to trade in someone like Beams, with 2 years left in their body, for a mid-first rounder, I'd be pissed. If Hawthorn, or GWS, or Richmond, or Collingwood do it though, then they may see it as the missing piece in a premiership run. Perfectly reasonable and legitimate.
 

briztoon

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Adelaide-Carlton for Gibbs is a good precedent for the trade though. Similar age and expectations. Pick 10, plus pick 16 in exchange for Carlton's 2018-R2 (~pick 19 in a stronger draft, so really pretty close to just pick 10).

If the Lions tried to trade in someone like Beams, with 2 years left in their body, for a mid-first rounder, I'd be pissed. If Hawthorn, or GWS, or Richmond, or Collingwood do it though, then they may see it as the missing piece in a premiership run. Perfectly reasonable and legitimate.
The key difference between Gibbs and Beams is that I see Gibbs being able to play at a high level longer than Beams.
 
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The key difference between Gibbs and Beams is that I see Gibbs being able to play at a high level longer than Beams.
What is this opinion based on? Beams is already a year younger. He has played 19 and 21 games the last 2 seasons after overcoming his injury in 2016. He only missed a game due to family reasons this year. Gibbs plays more off the backline and is outside speed game is more likely to deteriorate than Beams inside game. Beams is also a bonafide goal kicker and could easily play as a goal kicking small/mid forward in the forward pocket. His asset is his strength which is more durable than the athletics/speed that Gibbs relies on. Beams could play on ball for another 2-3 years before playing forward pocket for another 2 ala Ablett. Beams is higher ranked than Gibbs.

I just dont get this talk that Beams is somehow less than Gibbs when in any measurable metric he appears to beat him. Yet we shouldnt expect much from his trade? Makes no sense.

I would happily trade Beams this year off his AA form if we can score a high first rounder or two (after pick swaps) given the fact that Beams seems unlikely to renew his contract in 2020 (so we would be better off pumping some games into Bailey to fast track his development like we did with the LugBerry)
 

lioninthesand

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Honestly feel that is an over pay for Beams. If the teams were reversed, and Brisbane was trading pick 9 for a 29 year old and beat up Dayne Beams, I'd be pretty pissed.

I'm all for getting the best value for Beams in a trade if it eventuates, but genuinely try to be realistic when considering such trades. I believe Beams would be worth a late first or early, early second. While a players past and current achievements does lend weight to his value, what really counts is a players projected future out put, and I believe Beams, at best (and I really want to stress that "at best") has two years left in his body performing a high level.

Others have mentioned it, when the decline comes for Beams, it's going to be fast. I don't see Beams as being able to play on like Hodge or Burgoyne.
Beams, IMO, all things considered.. is worth a pick somewhere between pick 15-20. Weather that's what we net if he does leave, will come down to what the club has to offer we are dealing with. Pies first rounder looks about right, and him on a 3 year deal there while the window is open is worth that much to them, he really is a difference maker.
 

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Briztoon's continual carry on about Beams being "beat up" is just so over the top. I would actually argue the opposite and say he's got a good 5-6 years left. Beams has shown he can kick a lot of goals and would be a really tough match up at the end of his career as a forward.

For a team in a premiership window, pick 9 as is a bargain for a player of Beams ability. For a team like Carlton, if they had Pick 9 it would be a terrible move.

Personally I hope Beams stays, as we're a significantly better team with him in it and at the trade table all the Vic sides will offer us nothing as usual
 

a mayes ing

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Yep, somewhere mid/late first round is about fair.
It is but the whole point of contracts is that teams are supposed to overpay to get them out of contract. We had to overpay for Beams and Cameron when they were in contract. Shouldn't it be the same when other teams try and buy Beams from us.

Briztoon's continual carry on about Beams being "beat up" is just so over the top. I would actually argue the opposite and say he's got a good 5-6 years left. Beams has shown he can kick a lot of goals and would be a really tough match up at the end of his career as a forward.

For a team in a premiership window, pick 9 as is a bargain for a player of Beams ability. For a team like Carlton, if they had Pick 9 it would be a terrible move.

Personally I hope Beams stays, as we're a significantly better team with him in it and at the trade table all the Vic sides will offer us nothing as usual
Don't think it is over the top at all. He does look beat up, gets tackled and stays down for ages. Just looks in pain and that is probably because he has had to shoulder a lot of the inside grunt for us most of the time he has been here.
 

Nunez

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It is but the whole point of contracts is that teams are supposed to overpay to get them out of contract. We had to overpay for Beams and Cameron when they were in contract. Shouldn't it be the same when other teams try and buy Beams from us.



Don't think it is over the top at all. He does look beat up, gets tackled and stays down for ages. Just looks in pain and that is probably because he has had to shoulder a lot of the inside grunt for us most of the time he has been here.
I think you answered your own question.

Beams and Cameron were in their prime when they were contracted players coming to us. 2019 Beams is nowhere near the prospect of 2015 Beams.
 
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Briztoon's continual carry on about Beams being "beat up" is just so over the top. I would actually argue the opposite and say he's got a good 5-6 years left. Beams has shown he can kick a lot of goals and would be a really tough match up at the end of his career as a forward.

For a team in a premiership window, pick 9 as is a bargain for a player of Beams ability. For a team like Carlton, if they had Pick 9 it would be a terrible move.

Personally I hope Beams stays, as we're a significantly better team with him in it and at the trade table all the Vic sides will offer us nothing as usual
We are undoubtedly a better side with him but that is not the only consideration here. This year he has carried a lot into games, both mentally and physically, which has made him look slow, sore and tired. He may well rejuvenate next year with the grief having subsided somewhat, whether that be with us or elsewhere. But realistically you would say he has two, possibly three, years left in him. He may even want to quit football after a couple of years. The balance for our club is whether we take what he offers on the field for a year or possibly two or get whatever value he brings on the trade table. I definitely think the club will look at offers if the value is high enough when compared to what he brings us as a player. My ideal scenario for what it's worth would have been to have him stay one more year by which time I reckon our young mids will be ready to go it alone and then get him a trade and shed ourselves of the burden of the final year of his contract which is money we may need for re-signings.
 
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