List Mgmt. 2018 Trade/FA & Draft Thread Part IV [JP✔️ JPII✔️ Hall✔️ BScott✔️ Tyson✔️ Clarke➡️ Preuss➡️ RedÓg✔️]

Is Dan Menzel worth a spot on an AFL list?

  • No Dan, we have enough injury plauged forwards

    Votes: 26 20.8%
  • Deserves a spot on a list somewhere, just not North

    Votes: 43 34.4%
  • Rookie only

    Votes: 33 26.4%
  • He'll kick five in a final for us, must get

    Votes: 23 18.4%

  • Total voters
    125
  • Poll closed .

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giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
69,474
141,066
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Chicago Bulls
SYDNEY spent this year trying to eliminate bias from its recruiting in a bid to give the club an edge over rivals at draft time.

Data, statistics or numbers – whichever phrase computes best with you – are becoming increasingly prevalent in sports worldwide, with the AFL frantically playing catch up.

How footballers are rated has changed and can impact whether or not they are drafted and maybe even how much they are paid based on prognostications of where their career will head.

Swans list manager Kinnear Beatson, one of the game's sharpest recruiters, is embracing the revolution and poached Chris Keane from Greater Western Sydney at the end of last year.

Keane completed a statistics degree at RMIT University, crunched the numbers for netball team the Melbourne Vixens at the Victorian Institute of Sport then became an analyst at the Giants.

He was most recently a Melbourne-based opposition analyst with GWS until newly promoted Beatson enticed him with a new role as Sydney's senior recruiting analyst.

"My role, basically, is to cover all the analytics behind our future drafting, whether that be GPS or in-game performance (or) combine/athletic data," Keane told ex-Swans defender Ted Richards' podcast, The Richards Report.

"Any data we get through to the club is my responsibility to go through and … make sure we're using that going forward, in terms of how we're projecting a kid into the future, and potentially drafting a kid as well."

The association between numbers and sport was popularised in a 2003-released book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game based off baseball club Oakland's revolutionary approach to recruiting.

The book became a hit movie in 2011, and the 'Moneyball' approach is now widely understood and no longer scorned in sporting circles.

Even still, Keane had to win over naysayers, in the form of old-school recruiters not exposed to the advanced statistical way of thinking.

He is tasked with developing algorithms that can hopefully find diamonds in the rough for Sydney, which is already an industry leader for its shrewd recruiting.

"Kinnear, my manager, has openly said I'm at the footy club to challenge how (the Swans' recruiters) think and raise red flags on kids we might like," Keane said.

"That's all based on numbers. A lot of times I'll spit out a few players and Kinnear will say, 'No, he can't play', which is fine, and I'll watch the tape and I'll say, 'Yeah, no, he can't play'.

"It's a really interesting dynamic, because a lot of kids in South Australia and Western Australia; it's a different standard of footy to the TAC Cup (under-18 competition in Victoria)."

Keane's challenge in that context is developing a model that enables him to accurately define the quality of a player's performance in different leagues and teams at varying levels.

"You're trying to factor in, 'OK, this kid's done x at TAC Cup level and Player Y has done this in the WAFL, where there's less pressure, bigger grounds and better conditions'," he said.

"There are all these factors that go into it, then determining the margin between the two and how we provide context between (them)."

Sydney used data analysis to help form judgments on players during the NAB AFL Trade Period and ultimately recruited Ryan Clarke (North Melbourne) and Jackson Thurlow (Geelong).
 

DesertRoo

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 11, 2013
7,429
14,527
AFL Club
North Melbourne
SYDNEY spent this year trying to eliminate bias from its recruiting in a bid to give the club an edge over rivals at draft time.

Data, statistics or numbers – whichever phrase computes best with you – are becoming increasingly prevalent in sports worldwide, with the AFL frantically playing catch up.

How footballers are rated has changed and can impact whether or not they are drafted and maybe even how much they are paid based on prognostications of where their career will head.

Swans list manager Kinnear Beatson, one of the game's sharpest recruiters, is embracing the revolution and poached Chris Keane from Greater Western Sydney at the end of last year.

Keane completed a statistics degree at RMIT University, crunched the numbers for netball team the Melbourne Vixens at the Victorian Institute of Sport then became an analyst at the Giants.

He was most recently a Melbourne-based opposition analyst with GWS until newly promoted Beatson enticed him with a new role as Sydney's senior recruiting analyst.

"My role, basically, is to cover all the analytics behind our future drafting, whether that be GPS or in-game performance (or) combine/athletic data," Keane told ex-Swans defender Ted Richards' podcast, The Richards Report.

"Any data we get through to the club is my responsibility to go through and … make sure we're using that going forward, in terms of how we're projecting a kid into the future, and potentially drafting a kid as well."

The association between numbers and sport was popularised in a 2003-released book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game based off baseball club Oakland's revolutionary approach to recruiting.

The book became a hit movie in 2011, and the 'Moneyball' approach is now widely understood and no longer scorned in sporting circles.

Even still, Keane had to win over naysayers, in the form of old-school recruiters not exposed to the advanced statistical way of thinking.

He is tasked with developing algorithms that can hopefully find diamonds in the rough for Sydney, which is already an industry leader for its shrewd recruiting.

"Kinnear, my manager, has openly said I'm at the footy club to challenge how (the Swans' recruiters) think and raise red flags on kids we might like," Keane said.

"That's all based on numbers. A lot of times I'll spit out a few players and Kinnear will say, 'No, he can't play', which is fine, and I'll watch the tape and I'll say, 'Yeah, no, he can't play'.

"It's a really interesting dynamic, because a lot of kids in South Australia and Western Australia; it's a different standard of footy to the TAC Cup (under-18 competition in Victoria)."

Keane's challenge in that context is developing a model that enables him to accurately define the quality of a player's performance in different leagues and teams at varying levels.

"You're trying to factor in, 'OK, this kid's done x at TAC Cup level and Player Y has done this in the WAFL, where there's less pressure, bigger grounds and better conditions'," he said.

"There are all these factors that go into it, then determining the margin between the two and how we provide context between (them)."

Sydney used data analysis to help form judgments on players during the NAB AFL Trade Period and ultimately recruited Ryan Clarke (North Melbourne) and Jackson Thurlow (Geelong).
Good thing he was looking at Clarke’s data rather than his kicking into forward 50.
 

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giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
69,474
141,066
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Chicago Bulls
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-04/worth-a-look-15-tempting-delisted-free-agents



TOM CAMPBELL (2/11/1991)
Previous club/s: Western Bulldogs (42 games)

Why would they want him?The 200cm Bulldogs discard looms as the ideal back-up for a ruck-needy club – and there are a few that could do with an upgrade in this area. Campbell never played double-digit games in a season while at the Kennel, but he is athletic, a competent contested mark and holds his own in ruck contests. Likely to find a new home.

Should suit: Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond




CORY GREGSON (4/9/1996)
Previous club/s: Geelong (39 games)

Why would they want him?Another player overdue for some luck. A fourth bout of surgery on his troublesome left foot in July ended his season and subsequently his career at the Cattery. Still only 22 years old, Gregson managed 20 senior games in his first season and seemed headed for a long career in the navy blue and white hoops. Is a club willing to take the risk on getting his foot right, knowing there is upside in the small forward?

Should suit: Fremantle, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide




JAKE NEADE (25/9/1994)
Previous club/s: Port Adelaide (66 games)

Why would they want him? Neade was never a huge goalkicker, but he is suited in a day and age where forward-half pressure is so coveted. The 'Elliott Express' brings speed, work rate and tackling intent, and is capable of brilliance in front of goal. Any club looking for an instant injection of experience in their forward line could do far worse.

Should suit: Melbourne, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs
 

King Corey

Moderator
Jun 9, 2001
26,417
78,165
Windy Hill Safe Injecting Room
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
St Johnstone
I like Gregson, neat little player and a goer. However.. the foot injury is a big query though and considering he'd likely come as a rookie not sure how many resources the club would want to put into a guy who might require 1-2 years rehabilitation to become a 15-25 list player in a best case scenario.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
68,177
130,617
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
I like Gregson, neat little player and a goer. However.. the foot injury is a big query though and considering he'd likely come as a rookie not sure how many resources the club would want to put into a guy who might require 1-2 years rehabilitation to become a 15-25 list player in a best case scenario.

Mate, if he couldn't crack it for a spot on the list with the worst depth in the AFL, then why should we bother?

The same logic also applies to looking at a ruck reject from the bulldogs.
 

King Corey

Moderator
Jun 9, 2001
26,417
78,165
Windy Hill Safe Injecting Room
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
St Johnstone
Mate, if he couldn't crack it for a spot on the list with the worst depth in the AFL, then why should we bother?

The same logic also applies to looking at a ruck reject from the bulldogs.
You're probably right but thought he'd be your kind of player too? Hard working, evenly skilled and a very determined type.

To plays devil's advocate Shane Clayton and Peter Bell were given the lemon 'n sarse from bottom clubs back in the day.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
68,177
130,617
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
You're probably right but thought he'd be your kind of player too? Hard working, evenly skilled and a very determined type.

To plays devil's advocate Shane Clayton and Peter Bell were given the lemon 'n sarse from bottom clubs back in the day.

I actually think we should have just retained Billy if we're talking about Gregson.

As for Campbell, he's a swingman KPP/ruck type, and we have better ones already.
 

King Corey

Moderator
Jun 9, 2001
26,417
78,165
Windy Hill Safe Injecting Room
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
St Johnstone
I actually think we should have just retained Billy if we're talking about Gregson.

As for Campbell, he's a swingman KPP/ruck type, and we have better ones already.
Agree on both points. Btw I was only commenting on Gregson.

Campbell is a plank of wood. Which of course means he'll end up on our list just to sh*t me.
 

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hilly

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 27, 2000
11,361
15,649
Frank Grey Smith Bar
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Triple M commentary team
We lost head to heads with them for Hickey and Bruce. Neither of us are exactly the Google of AFL employers.
Saints from memory were at about our level of performance when Bruce came down.

We weren't willing to pay what they were for Hickey (in terms of trade currency and salary) and that has proven to be wise.
 

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